PRESENTATION APIMEC BRASÍLIA ADJUSTMENTS IN BRAZIL S ECONOMIC POLICY IN 2015 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE SUSTAINABLE GDP GROWTH RATES GOING FORWARD 1 1 Brasília, February, 5th 2015 Ellen Regina Steter
WORLD GROWTH STILL OUT OF STEAM 2 2
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP GROWTH (%) - WORLD ECONOMY TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB DO MUNDO (SOMA DOS PIBs OBTIDA PELA PARIDADE DO PODER DE COMPRA) 1980-2011 FONTE: FMI. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES(*): BRADESCO 6,0 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,4 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,2 2,3 4,9 4,8 4,6 3,9 3,9 3,9 4,2 4,0 3,8 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,43,4 3,0 2,8 2,42,4 2,5 2,5 2,2 4,9 3,0 4,1 3,4 3,33,1 3,2 2,0 1,0 0,8 0,0 0,0 3 FONTE: FMI ELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO
THE US POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FACES RESTRICTIONS FROM THE MODEST GLOBAL GROWTH. BUT US MONETARY POLICY NORMALIZATION IS COMING. WE EXPECT THAT THE INTEREST RATES RISE WILL HAPPEN IN THE MIDDLE OF 2015. 4 4
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY 5 5
BRAZILIAN EXCHANGE RATE: INFLUENCED BY TERMS OF TRADE, FED EXPECTATIONS AND CONFIDENDE 6 6
05/05/12 30/05/12 24/06/12 19/07/12 13/08/12 07/09/12 02/10/12 27/10/12 21/11/12 16/12/12 10/01/13 04/02/13 01/03/13 26/03/13 20/04/13 15/05/13 09/06/13 04/07/13 29/07/13 23/08/13 17/09/13 12/10/13 06/11/13 01/12/13 26/12/13 20/01/14 14/02/14 11/03/14 05/04/14 30/04/14 25/05/14 19/06/14 14/07/14 08/08/14 02/09/14 27/09/14 22/10/14 16/11/14 11/12/14 05/01/15 30/01/15 BRAZILIAN INTEREST RATE BRL/USD TAXA DE CÂMBIO R$/US$ 2011-2014. fonte: Bloomberg 2,80 2,70 2,60 2,50 DECEMBER 2008 R$ 2,34 / US$ DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1,74 / US$ DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1,67 / US$ DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1,88 / US$ DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2,04 / US$ DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2,35 / US$ DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2,65 / US$ DECEMBER 2015 R$ 2,75 / US$ 2,46 2,43 2,51 2,74 2,61 2,57 2,50 2,68 2,40 2,30 2,26 2,38 2,33 2,36 2,28 2,30 2,40 2,20 2,10 2,09 2,14 2,15 2,20 2,20 2,24 2,00 1,90 1,99 2,02 1,95 2,02 7 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
PRIMARY SURPLUS AS % OF GDP SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO EM % DO PIB - SELL SIDE 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,9% 3,2% 3,4% 3,2% 3,3% 3,7% 3,8% 3,2% 3,3% 3,4% 2,7% 3,1% 2,5% 2,4% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% 1,5% 1,2% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-0,6% 8 SOURCE: BACEN
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 14,0% 12,0% 12,53% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 8,94% 5,97% 7,67% 9,30% 7,60% 5,69% 3,14% 4,46% 5,90% 4,31% 7,00% 5,91%6,50% 5,91% 6,41% 5,20% 2,0% 0,0% 9 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14 out/14 dez/14 fev/15 abr/15 jun/15 ago/15 out/15 dez/15 14,00% 12,29% 12,00% 10,00% 10,06% 8,00% 6,71% 7,15% 7,78% 8,28% 6,74% 6,00% 5,67% 5,97% 5,31% 5,90% 6,13% 4,00% 3,70% 2,00% 3,68% Market prices 3,13% 3,50% 1,78% 0,00% Administered prices 0,94% 10 10
SERVICE PRICES AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME jan/06 mai/06 set/06 jan/07 mai/07 set/07 jan/08 mai/08 set/08 jan/09 mai/09 set/09 jan/10 mai/10 set/10 jan/11 mai/11 set/11 jan/12 mai/12 set/12 jan/13 mai/13 set/13 jan/14 mai/14 set/14 jan/15 mai/15 set/15 12,0% 10,94% 10,93% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 7,51% 6,59% 5,96% 8,10% 6,88% 9,33% 9,84% 9,08% 8,04% 8,75% 9,14% 7,50% 7,55% 4,0% 2,0% Household Income Service prices Rendimento 12 meses IPCA Serviços 0,0% 11 11
mar-08 jun-08 set-08 dez-08 mar-09 jun-09 set-09 dez-09 mar-10 jun-10 Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic set-10 dez-10 mar-11 jun-11 set-11 dez-11 mar-12 jun-12 set-12 dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 mar-14 jun-14 set-14 dez-14 mar-15 jun-15 set-15 dez-15 Taxa nominal de juros (Selic). Fonte: BC BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2015 14,0% 13,75% 13,00% 13,0% 12,0% 11,75% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 12,75% 11,25% 10,25% 9,50% 8,75%8,75% 10,25% 10,75% 11,25% 12,50% 12,00% 11,00% 10,50% 9,75% 9,00% 8,50% 8,00% 7,25% 8,50% 8,00% 11,75% 11,25% 10,75% 11,00% 10,50% 10,00% 9,50% 9,00% 12,50% 12,25% 6,0% 12 SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY IN 2015 TENDS TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF 2003: ADJUSTMENTS AND REFORMS MAY HAPPEN IN THE FIRST SEMESTER AND CONFIDENCE RECOVERY TO BE SEEN IN THE SECOND HALF 13
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BRAZILIAN GDP: ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 2000-2015 8,5% 7,5% 7,5% 6,5% 5,5% 5,7% 6,1% 5,2% 4,5% 4,3% 3,9% 3,5% 2,5% 2,6% 3,2% 2,7% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,3% 1,2% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,5% -0,3% -0,5% 14 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PIB: CONSUMO DO GOVERNO BRAZILIAN GDP: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 6,0% 5,0% 5,1% 4,0% 4,1% 4,2% 3,2% 3,1% 3,3% 3,0% 2,0% 2,3% 2,6% 1,9% 2,0% 2,2% 1,0% 0,0% 0,0% 15 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BRAZILIAN GDP: INVESTMENT ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 25,0% 20,0% 21,3% 15,0% 13,9% 13,6% 10,0% 9,1% 9,8% 5,0% 3,6% 4,7% 5,2% 0,0% -5,0% -4,0% -3,0% -10,0% -6,7% -7,7% 16 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 PIB: INDUSTRIA 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BRAZILIAN GDP: INDUSTRY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 12,0% 10,0% 10,4% 8,0% 7,9% 6,0% 5,3% 4,0% 4,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,2% 1,6% 1,7% 0,0% -2,0% -0,8% -1,7% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -5,6% -8,0% 17 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BRAZILIAN GDP: HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE PIB: CONSUMO 8,0% 7,0% 6,9% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,8% 4,5% 5,2% 6,1% 5,7% 4,4% 4,1% 3,2% 3,0% 2,6% 2,0% 1,0% 0,9% 0,0% -1,0% -0,3% 18 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE) 12,5% 11,5% 11,5% 10,5% 9,9% 10,0% 9,5% 9,3% 8,5% 7,5% 7,9% 8,1% 6,7% 6,5% 6,0% 6,2% 6,0% 5,5% 4,5% 5,5% 5,4% 4,9% 19 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BRAZILIAN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME REAL ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 5,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,2% 3,4% 3,2% 3,8% 4,1% 3,0% 2,7% 2,0% 1,5% 1,8% 2,0% 1,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -1,3% -2,0% 20 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
BANKING CREDIT: STRUCTURAL CHANGES 21 21
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH 2001-2016 Cresc. Estoque de Crédito nominal 35,0% 30,0% 28,8% 30,7% 25,0% 20,0% 19,2% 21,7% 20,7% 20,6% 18,8% 15,0% 14,3% 15,1% 16,4% 14,7% 10,0% 8,8% 11,3% 10,5% 10,2% 5,0% 2,9% 22 0,0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016* SOURCE: BACEN PREPARED BY: BRADESCO 22
Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH CUMULATIVE 12 MONTHS CHANGE (EARMARKED AND NON-EARMARKED) 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% 34,2% earmarked non-earmarked 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 28,4% 29,1% 18,0% 22,2% 19,2% 27,3% 24,5% 19,0% 19,6% 15,0% 10,0% 7,9% 5,0% 8,0% 4,7% 0,0% 23 SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL TOTAL CREDIT Distribuição DISTRIBUTION da carteira total de BETWEEN crédito EARMARKED AND Fonte: Bacen NON-EARMARKED 72,0% 66,3% 68,6% 66,7% 61,9% 61,6% 60,6% Non-earmarked Earmarked 57,0% 56,3% 52,2% 47,8% 42,0% 38,1% 38,7% 39,7% 43,7% 33,7% 35,3% 27,0% 31,4% 24 SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL Crescimento TOTAL em CREDIT doze meses GROWTH da carteira CUMULATIVE de crédito 12 total MONTHS (livre + CHANGE (COMPANIES AND INDIVIDUALS) direcionado) 43,0% 40,7% 38,0% Companies Households 33,0% 28,0% 23,0% 22,6% 20,5% 23,8% 19,0% 18,0% 13,0% 8,0% 17,3% 12,9% 17,5% 16,2% 15,6% 16,8% 17,1% 12,8% 13,0% 9,8% 25 SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH NOMINAL ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE Total Credit Growth (Outstanding) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30,7% 15,1% 20,6% 18,8% 16,4% 14,7% 11,3% 10,5% Non-earmarked credit 32,7% 8,4% 16,9% 16,5% 13,6% 7,8% 4,7% 5,9% Indivuduals 25,7% 15,9% 20,5% 13,2% 10,2% 7,6% 5,5% 6,1% Corporations 39,8% 1,6% 13,2% 20,1% 17,0% 8,0% 3,9% 5,7% Earmarked credit 26,7% 29,2% 27,0% 22,4% 20,9% 24,5% 19,6% 15,6% 26 SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO 26
DEPEC EXPECTS A QUITE MODEST RISE IN THE DELINQUENCY RATE 27
jun/07 set/07 dez/07 mar/08 jun/08 set/08 dez/08 mar/09 jun/09 set/09 dez/09 mar/10 jun/10 set/10 dez/10 mar/11 jun/11 set/11 dez/11 mar/12 jun/12 set/12 dez/12 mar/13 jun/13 set/13 dez/13 mar/14 jun/14 set/14 dez/14 mar/15 jun/15 set/15 dez/15 Inadimplência acima de 90 dias (Bacen) - Pessoa física INDIVIDUALS DELINQUENCY RATE (OVER 90 DAYS) 9,0 8,5 8,5 Série antiga Série nova 8,0 8,1 8,0 7,9 8,2 7,9 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 7,2 7,4 7,3 6,8 6,3 6,1 7,1 7,6 7,4 7,8 7,5 7,0 6,7 6,7 6,6 6,5 6,5 6,9 6,7 5,5 5,7 28 SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Evolução do endividamento e do comprometimento de renda das famílias HOUSEHOLD INDEBTEDNESS EM % 47,0 debt debt service ratio 43,8 45,8 39,0 39,2 41,7 32,9 31,0 32,2 23,0 22,6 22,8 18,2 19,5 18,8 20,0 21,2 15,0 29 29 FONTE: BACEN ELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO
Ellen Regina Steter Economist 4968.ellen@bradesco.com.br WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned. 30