MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Transcrição

1 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Better signs for Brazilian economic policy should come at a price in the short term but bring benefits in the longer term Economic Research Department - DEPEC

2 The normalization of U.S. monetary policy will begin in 2015 (in the second half), in a process that will be gradual and properly signaled to markets. The magnitude of the interest-rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve is an open question, especially because of the imminentlydeflationary environment in Europe, the increase in monetary stimuli in Japan and falling oil prices. However, signals point to acceleration in U.S. growth, a stronger dollar and a moderate advance in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Hence, emerging-market currencies tend to weaken, and even more so because of lower expected growth in China and the widespread drop in commodity prices.

3 04/05/11 04/06/11 04/07/11 04/08/11 04/09/11 04/10/11 04/11/11 04/12/11 04/01/12 04/02/12 04/03/12 04/04/12 04/05/12 04/06/12 04/07/12 04/08/12 04/09/12 04/10/12 04/11/12 04/12/12 04/01/13 04/02/13 04/03/13 04/04/13 04/05/13 04/06/13 04/07/13 04/08/13 04/09/13 04/10/13 04/11/13 04/12/13 04/01/14 04/02/14 04/03/14 04/04/14 04/05/14 04/06/14 04/07/14 04/08/14 04/09/14 04/10/14 04/11/14 04/12/14 04/01/15 04/02/15 04/03/15 04/04/15 04/05/15 US AND GERMANY: 10 YEAR INTEREST RATE TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO Fonte: Bloomberg % Treasury 10 years Juros 10 years - Germany SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

4 China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). CHINESE GDP ANNUAL Fonte: Bloomberg RATE OF CHANGE Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco SOURCE: CEIC FORECAST: BRADESCO

5 At the same time as we acknowledge the various challenges present in the short-term, we believe the signs that the economic policy will favor a rebalancing of the public accounts and reducing inflation will be essential for the long-term outlook and the resumption of growth for the Brazilian economy.

6 We cannot expect any great expansion in GDP growth in this phase of transition and adjustments and forecast a drop of 1.5% in 2015.

7 BRAZILIAN GDP ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

8 DESEMPREGO BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE ( ) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

9 BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB 000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS CAGED - GERAÇÃO DE VAGAS, EM MILHARES 2, , , SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

10 BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -1.0% -1.3% -2.0% SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

11 jan/10 fev/10 mar/10 abr/10 mai/10 jun/10 jul/10 ago/10 set/10 out/10 nov/10 dez/10 jan/11 fev/11 mar/11 abr/11 mai/11 jun/11 jul/11 ago/11 set/11 out/11 nov/11 dez/11 jan/12 fev/12 mar/12 abr/12 mai/12 jun/12 jul/12 ago/12 set/12 out/12 nov/12 dez/12 jan/13 fev/13 mar/13 abr/13 mai/13 jun/13 jul/13 ago/13 set/13 out/13 nov/13 dez/13 jan/14 fev/14 mar/14 abr/14 mai/14 jun/14 jul/14 ago/14 set/14 out/14 nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS BRADESCO SURVEY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE Pesquisa Proprietária REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA TODOS OS SETORES AGREGADOS SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

12 United Kingdom Mexico Netherlands Germany Greece United States Taiwan France Korea, Republic of Italy Finland Portugal Belgium Spain Austria Ireland Denmark Canada Hungary Poland Sweden Switzerland Norway Israel Czech Republic Japan Philippines New Zealand Estonia Australia Slovakia Singapore Brazil PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, crescimento acumulado 100% 90% 87.2% 80% 70% 60% 57.3% 63.4% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 21.1% 22.8% 36.3% 33.5% 25.5% 28.1% 42.1% 47.1% 10% 8.3% 0% 0.0% 12 SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO

13 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 set/13 nov/13 jan/14 mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE 2006 = SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

14 BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) Produção Industrial Fonte: IBGE - Elaboração e projeção: Bradesco SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

15 PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

16 RETAIL SALES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) Variação das vendas setoriais no comércio varejista Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfume and cosmetic articles 3.8% Others 2.0% Fuels and lubricants 0.3% Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food prod, drinks and tobacco Office, IT and communications equipment and materials Textiles, clothing and footwear Restricted Monthly Retail Survey (PMC) -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -1.0% Amplified PMC Building material -2.7% -2.0% Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery -4.9% Vehicles, motorcycles, autoparts and pieces -5.2% Furniture and Electrodomestic appliances -5.2% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 16 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

17 fev/04 abr/04 jun/04 ago/04 out/04 dez/04 fev/05 abr/05 jun/05 ago/05 out/05 dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 abr/07 jun/07 ago/07 out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14 out/14 dez/14 fev/15 BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco EVOLUÇÃO DO NÚMERO DE BRASILEIROS NAS CLASSES A, B E C - MÉDIA MÓVEL DE 12 MESES SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO

18 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15* em mil toneladas Produção Nacional de Grãos BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco EM MIL TON 210, , , , , , , , , ,267 96, , , , , , ,898 90,000 70,000 68,400 57,901 76,035 81,065 78,427 83,030 50,000 30, SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO * Projeção

19 * 2016* CONSTRUCTION SECTOR GDP ANNUAL VARIATION EVOLUÇÃO DA VARIAÇÃO ANUAL DO PIB DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL Fonte: IBGE Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco EM % 14% 13.1% 12% 11.0% 10% 08% 9.1% 7.5% 8.3% 06% 4.8% 4.7% 04% 02% 2.8% 2.0% 00% -02% -04% -2.2% -1.0% -2.6% -06% -5.7% -08% SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

20 Assuming that the fiscal adjustment in question also includes a realignment of prices, inflation should rise temporarily, with the pressure concentrated on administered prices in particular. This leads us to foresee the Amplified Consumer Price Index (local acronym IPCA) rising 8.0% this year. 20

21 IPCA ANUAL * (NOVA AGREGAÇÃO E NOVA POF) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 9.0% 8.0% 8.00% 7.0% 6.0% 5.69% 5.90% 5.91% 6.50% 5.84% 5.91% 6.41% 5.70% 5.0% 4.46% 4.31% 4.0% 3.0% 3.14% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% * 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

22 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) ADMINISTERED PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE % 12.0% 12,04% 10.0% 8.96% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.27% 3.27% 4.73% 3.13% 6.20% 3.67% 5.31% 5.67% 2.0% 1.65% 1.52% 0.0% * 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO

23 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) DURABLE GOODS PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE % 3.61% 3.00% 3.06% 3.00% 2.90% 2.00% 1.00% 0.94% 0.50% 0.00% -0.05% -0.01% -1.00% -2.00% -1.75% -1.89% -1.55% -3.00% -4.00% -3.47% * 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO

24 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) SERVICE PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE Serviços no IPCA 12.0% 10.0% 9.79% 8.0% 7.32% 6.66% 6.77% 8.10% 6.73% 8.02% 8.74% 8.73% 8.33% 7.70% 6.70% 6.0% 5.54% 5.72% 5.79% 4.86% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% * 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO

25 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) FOOD PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE % 20.0% 19.46% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 9.63% 7.48% 10.77% 11.12% 10.39% 7.19% 9.86% 8.48% 8.03% 8.75% 7.00% 6.0% 4.0% 3.87% 3.17% 2.0% 1.99% 1.23% 0.0% * 2015* 2016* SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO

26 OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE 26

27 The combination of a fiscal and monetary tightening to face up to these challenges means that Brazil's base interest rate, known as the Selic, is set to rise to 13.5% next year, with the primary surplus coming to 1.2% of GDP, as indicated by the new proposed 2015 budget.

28 mar-08 jun-08 set-08 dez-08 mar-09 jun-09 set-09 dez-09 mar-10 jun-10 set-10 dez-10 mar-11 jun-11 set-11 dez-11 mar-12 jun-12 set-12 dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 mar-14 jun-14 set-14 dez-14 mar-15 jun-15 set-15 dez-15 mar-16 jun-16 set-16 dez-16 Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) % 13.5% 12.5% 13.75% 13.00% 12.75% 12.50% 13.50% 13.50% 12.75% 12.25% 11.75% 11.5% 10.5% 9.5% 8.5% 11.25% 11.25% 10.75% 10.25% 10.25% 9.50% 8.75% 11.00% 10.50% 9.75% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 8.50% 8.00% 10.50% 10.00% 9.00% 11.75% 11.00% 11.50% 7.5% 7.25% 6.5% 28 SOURCE: BCB FORECAST: BRADESCO

29 PRIMARY SURPLUS SUPERÁVIT AS % OF PRIMÁRIO GDP EM % DO PIB - SELL SIDE 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% % SOURCE: BACEN

30 The exchange rate will respond to this domestic situation with more positive expectations and higher interest rates but will also reflect the appreciation of the dollar at global level and the accommodation of commodity prices. As a result, the Real will end at R$/US$ 3.00 by the end of this year.

31 04-May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May-15 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ TAXA DE CÂMBIO R$/US$ fonte: Bloomberg DECEMBER 2008 R$ 2,34 / US$ 1.54 DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1,74 / US$ DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1,67 / US$ DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1,88 / US$ DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2,04 / US$ DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2,34 / US$ DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2,64 / US$ DECEMBER 2015 R$ 3,00 / US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

32 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final de ano. Fonte: BCB SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

33 TRADE BALANCE US$ BILLION 55,000 50,000 45,000 44,703 46,457 40,032 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 13,121 24,794 33,641 29,807 24,836 25,290 20,147 19,395 10,000 5,000 2,650 2,561 6, ,000-10,000-6,575-1, ,959-15, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

34 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION) 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-1,811-7,637-18,384-23,502-30,452-25,335-24,225-23,215-33,416 11,679 13,985 13,643 4,177 1,551-24,302-28,192-47,273-52,480-54,283-80,000-81,379-76,239-80,435-80,559-82, , , , SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

35 DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned. Updated 5 th May, 2015