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5 ! "# F% G4 * 3'"#' %%& 3 ''"7 / 4 2*'"'/ F ':/%* %G E H# : D%"% *'">,G5%"E 2='%7/ / 5! ". ".2 8 Análise Estática Análise Dinâmica Comparações Espaciais Comparações Temporais $%&' ( &)*

6 "7" "),-7./ +),7",-01 3) ) 3)' I ('%;6!+ %/ J $/ G&/4'7'!%"#7!%"#>> B 2 I ('% J $/ G&/4:/%/ *5'A /%"#%' '" =+ %'(2 ", Millions of 1990 euro Germany France UK

7 =+ %'(2 ",- Millions of 1990 euro (log scale) Germany France UK =+ %'(2 ", Av. growth rate Austria 2,155 2,592 2,766 2,772 11,458 12,932 14,631 15, Belgium 2,087 3,156 3,780 4,085 11,624 13,231 14,947 15, Denmark 2,256 2,926 3,796 5,193 13,480 14,089 16,765 17, Finland 1,248 1,579 2,032 3,181 11,505 11,309 14,289 15, France 2,151 2,606 3,523 3,943 12,380 13,710 15,033 15, Germany 2,232 2,729 3,030 2,903 11,744 12,601 13,520 14, Italy 1,335 1,917 2,314 2,619 11,179 12,444 13,660 14, Netherlands 2,561 3,028 4,255 4,485 11,770 13,274 15,701 16, Norway 1,449 1,870 2,597 4,086 13,615 14,555 17,907 19, Sweden 1,915 2,316 2,894 5,041 12,702 12,728 14,678 15, Switzerland 2,867 3,191 4,736 6,779 14,801 15,548 16,036 16, UK 3,360 3,680 4,116 5,190 11,513 12,033 14,428 15, Japan 882 1,037 1,515 1,437 12,155 14,532 15,431 15, Canada 2,177 3,326 3,789 5,454 13,723 13,613 16,043 17, USA 3,060 3,965 5,160 7,151 16,296 17,329 20,490 21, India ,003 1, * 1.1 Argentina 2,061 2,840 3,266 3,730 5,459 5,607 6, * 1.1 Bangladesh

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10 PIB real E %) '%4 T' ' U T//U : pico '! >'# E/G-* pico cava cava =7F# * G-E/ recessão expansão recuperação tempo 8! - I '7''4 / '/!S +,898 : Real GDP Cyclical fluctuations Long-term growth trend Actual real GDP 0 Time Figure 11.1

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14 Taxa de Desemprego observada vs tendencial Área Euro 1973:II :IV Taxa Desemprego Q2 1974Q2 1975Q2 1976Q2 1977Q2 1978Q2 1979Q2 Taxa Desemprego Tendencial? 1980Q2 1981Q2 1982Q2 1983Q2 1984Q2 1985Q2 1986Q2 1987Q2 1988Q2 1989Q2 1990Q2 1991Q2 1992Q2 1993Q2 1994Q2 1995Q2 1996Q2 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q Gaps de PIB real e de Desemprego Área Euro 1973:II :IV Gap Produto Y -Y N Q2 1974Q2 Gap Desemprego U N - U 1975Q2 1976Q2 1977Q2 1978Q2 1979Q2 1980Q2 1981Q2 1982Q2 1983Q2 1984Q2 1985Q2 1986Q2 1987Q2 1988Q2 1989Q2 1990Q2 1991Q2 1992Q2 1993Q2 1994Q2 1995Q2 1996Q2 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 6

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17 ($!,+$A 1!%'%>%". '% '#%%".%2 1+"#'' '%!"#$ 'T %U %2 D#!$ '' %'%>2 00 HD'%".%2 Exogenous variables Economic model Endogenous variables 09

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