Mar-10. Mar-12. Mar-11. Mar-13. Sep-12. Sep-10. Sep-11. Sep-13. Jun-10. Jun-12. Jun-11. Jun-13. Dec-12. Dec-13. Dec-10.

Transcrição

1 February 24 to 28 Both here and abroad, the calendar of events should be dominated by the release of activity indicators and news on monetary policy directives. On the international front there will be updates on 4Q13 GDP figures for some European countries, the US and Canada, in addition to speeches by FOMC, BoJ, BoE and ECB members. In Brazil, GDP data will be closely monitored by market participants, as will the Copom meeting on Wednesday, when we expect the Brazilian monetary authority to slow the rhythm of its ongoing tightening cycle. Fiscal figures for Jan14 should also attract some attention, especially after the announcement of the budget expenditure freeze last week. Brazil Echoing what Mr. Tombini the Brazilian Central Bank governor told journalists in a conference call last Tuesday, our calculations suggest that Brazilian GDP should have registered a positive change in the last quarter of 2013, thus likely having spared the government from reading headlines with the undesirable R word in the coming days. However, the 0.4% QoQ sa expansion that we forecast is far from pointing towards favourable prospects for upcoming quarters, since the carry-over estimate for full-year growth in 2014 would reach 0.5%! That is, notwithstanding the huge and successful volume of fiscal incentives granted to boost private consumption recently, we think supply constraints should become more evident than ever in the near future and reveal the country s low growth potential. Jankiel Santos Chief economist jsantos@espiritosantoib.com.br Flávio Serrano Senior economist fserrano@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman In spite of the disastrous performance of the industrial sector in 4Q13 we estimate a 1.1% QoQ sa drop after a nearly unchanged result in 3Q13 the services group should have expanded 0.7% QoQ sa in the last quarter a better result than the 0.1% QoQ sa in 3Q13 on the back of a robust contribution from retail sales which leapt 1.5% QoQ sa from +0.6% QoQ sa in the previous quarter. Still from the supply standpoint, we expect the agriculture and livestock segment to have recovered part of the strong decline observed in the prior reading (-3.5% QoQ sa) and to have increased by 1.6% QoQ sa in 4Q13. Chart 1: Brazilian GDP demand breakdown (QoQ sa growth rate) Domestic absorption Net exports Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Source: IBGE, BESI Brasil. From a demand standpoint, the pillar for the GDP expansion is likely to have been net exports, which we estimate to have contributed with 0.8% out of the total 0.4% QoQ sa growth with exports having grown 3.2% QoQ sa, while imports are likely to have declined 0.2% QoQ sa. Consequently, for the first time since 3Q11, domestic absorption the aggregation of private consumption, government consumption and gross capital formation should have posted a negative contribution to the GDP, shaving off 0.4% of the total change. Unfortunately, this decline is likely to be related to a dreary performance of gross capital formation we estimate it to have fallen 3.2% QoQ sa as we expect government consumption to have climbed 1.1% QoQ sa, while private A equipe do Departamento Econômico do BES Investimento do Brasil S/A - Banco de Investimento elaborou esta mensagem com propósito meramente informativo, baseada em informações disponíveis ao público e obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, porém, não garante sua precisão e abrangência. As considerações apresentadas no texto refletem apenas as opiniões atuais da área e estão sujeitas a alterações sem aviso prévio. O BES Investimento do Brasil - Banco de Investimento não tem nenhuma obrigação de atualizar ou manter atualizada as informações e opiniões expressas no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

2 consumption should have recorded a 0.1% QoQ sa increase. That is, while the official line states that the mix of Brazilian economic growth will improve as investments are going to gain participation at the expense of consumption, the actual outcome of the GDP is likely to unveil that gross capital formation receded for the second quarter in a row. Such a backdrop does not bode well for genuine improvement in GDP growth in the coming years. Notwithstanding the nuances of the slow growth, the government has already signalled that is not happy with recent GDP readings and intends to avoid imposing further obstacles to a recovery on any possible front, including the monetary one. That seems to be the reason for the constant references that Central Bank board members have been making to the lagged impact that prior interest rate hikes should have on the economy and, consequently, inflation dynamics. Such warnings were made once again by the Central Bank governor, Mr Tombini, during a conference call with journalists last week and, in our view, they should have sufficed to reinforcing the likelihood of a milder increase in the Selic rate next Wednesday. However, in an attempt to avoid any potential criticism with regard to such a move while price indices are still far from pointing towards a tranquil inflation backdrop, we had the announcement of a (apparent) fiscal adjustment plan last week. That is, now the Brazilian monetary authority will be able to claim that, in tandem with the lagged effect of higher interest rates, the fiscal policy should also help to fight inflationary pressure. Thus the need for continuing with the 50bps pace should have lessened and, consequently, we think it may be the moment for cutting the pace by half. That s the base of our call that the next Copom decision on Wednesday is likely to mark the end of the tightening cycle. Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 21-23/Feb - - G20 Fin. Ministers & CB Governors Meet in Sydney /Feb - - Brazilian Tax Collections Jan R$ 123.0B R$ 123.6B R$ 118.4B - - Briitish Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Feb % 8.8% - - Colombian Industrial Confidence Jan Colombian Retail Confidence Jan Monday 06:00 German IFO Business Climate Feb :00 Euro-Zone CPI YoY Jan F % 0.7% 07:00 Euro-Zone CPI Core YoY Jan F % 0.8% 08:00 Brazilian FGV Consumer Confidence Feb :00 Brazilian FGV CPI IPC-S 23-Feb 0.68% % 08:30 Brazilian CB Focus Report - IPCA Feb % 10:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan :00 Mexican Unemployment Rate NSA Jan % 4.3% 11:00 Mexican Bi-Weekly CPI 15-Feb % 0.1% 11:00 Mexican Bi-Weekly Core CPI 15-Feb % 0.2% 12:30 Israeli CB sets the base interest rate 24-Feb % 1.00% 12:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb :00 Brazilian Trade Balance - 3rd week Feb $338M 23:00 Nzealand 2Yr Inflation Expectation 1Q % - - Peruvian GDP YoY 4Q % 4.4% Tuesday 04:00 German GDP SA QoQ 4Q F % 0.4% 04:00 SAfrican Leading Indicator Dec :45 French Business Confidence Feb :00 Brazilian FIPE CPI - 3rd preview Feb 0.61% % 06:00 Italian Retail Sales MoM Dec % 06:30 SAfrican GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q % 0.7% 07:00 Italian Consumer Confidence Index Feb :00 Brazilian FGV Construction Costs MoM Feb 0.44% % no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

3 Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own 11:00 US House Price Index MoM Dec % 0.1% 11:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY 4Q % 11:00 Mexican Retail Sales YoY Dec % 1.9% 12:00 US Consumer Confidence Index Feb :00 Mexican Current Account Balance 4Q - - -$5001M -$5457M 12:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb :10 US Fed's Tarullo speaks in Arlington Portugal Releases Year-to-Date Budget Report Wednesday 06:30 Briitish GDP QoQ 4Q P % 0.7% 12:00 US New Home Sales Jan K 414K 14:00 US Fed's Rosengren speaks in Boston :45 Nzealand Trade Balance Jan M 523M 20:00 SKorean Current Account Balance Jan $6429.1M - - Brazilian Serasa Business Credit Delinquencies Brazilian CB sets the Selic target rate 26-Feb 10.75% 10.75% 10.50% Thursday 04:00 BoJ's Sato speaks in Tokyo :45 French Consumer Confidence Feb % % 05:00 Spanish GDP QoQ 4Q F % 0.3% 05:55 German Unemployment Rate Feb % :00 Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Feb :00 Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator Feb % 19.0% 08:00 Brazilian FGV Inflation IGPM MoM Feb 0.33% % 09:00 Brazilian GDP QoQ 4Q 0.4% 0.3% -0.5% 09:00 Brazilian GDP YoY 4Q 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 09:00 Brazilian GDP 4Qtrs Accumulated 4Q 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 10:00 German CPI YoY Feb P % 1.3% 10:30 Canadian Current Account Balance 4Q - - -$16.8B -$15.5B 10:30 US Durable Goods Orders Jan % -4.2% 10:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Jan % -1.3% 10:30 Brazilian Personal Loan Default Rate Jan % 10:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 22-Feb K 336K 12:30 US Fed's Fisher speaks in Frankfurt :00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb :30 ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt :15 US Fed's Lockhart & George speak in Atlanta :30 Japanese Jobless Rate Jan % 3.7% 20:30 Japanese Natl CPI YoY Jan % 1.6% 20:30 Japanese Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Jan % 0.7% 20:50 Japanese Industrial Production MoM Jan P % 0.9% 20:50 Japanese Retail Sales MoM Jan % -1.2%

4 Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 21:00 Nzealand ANZ Activity Outlook Feb :00 Nzealand ANZ Business Confidence Feb Brazilian Central Govt Budget Balance Jan R$ 23.0B - - R$ 14.5B Friday 04:00 German Retail Sales MoM Jan % -1.7% 04:45 French Consumer Spending MoM Jan % -0.1% 05:00 Spanish CPI EU Harmonised YoY Feb P % 0.3% 07:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Jan % 12.0% 09:00 Chilean Manufacturing Index YoY Jan % 0.2% 09:00 Chilean Unemployment Rate Jan % 5.7% 09:00 Chilean Copper Production Total Jan ,687 09:00 Chilean Retail Sales YoY Jan % 7.0% 10:30 Canadian Quarterly GDP Annualized 4Q % 2.7% 10:30 Brazilian Primary Budget Balance Jan R$ 27.0B - - R$ 10.4B 10:30 Brazilian Net Debt % GDP Jan 33.1% % 10:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S % 3.2% 10:30 US Personal Consumption 4Q S % 3.3% 10:30 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q S % 11:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb :55 US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Feb F :00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Jan % -8.7% 12:15 Source: Bloomberg, BESI Brasil. US Fed's Stein, Kocherlakota, Evans and Plosser speak in NY :30 BOE Governor Carney speaks in Frankfurt :00 Colombian National Unemployment Rate Jan % 17:30 Mexican Budget Balance YTD Jan MXN375.3B 22:00 Chinese Manufacturing PMI Feb Colombian CB sets the base interest rate 28-Feb % 3.25% - - Brazilian CNI Consumer Confidence Feb no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

5 E 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E National Accounts GDP (BRL billion) 4, ,807 5,194 5,611 6,080 GDP (USD billion) 2, ,210 2,142 2,290 2,454 GDP - Real Growth (%) Economic Activity Industrial Production (%) Unemployment Rate (%) - average Price Indices IPCA - Consumer Price Index (%) IGP-M - General Price Index (%) IGP-DI - General Price Index (%) Interest Rates Selic Target - end of year (%) Selic - average (%) Real Interest Rate - Selic/IPCA (%) TJLP - Long Term Interest Rates (%) FX Rates FX Rate - end of year (BRL/USD) FX Rate - average (BRL/USD) FX Rate - end of year (BRL/EUR) FX Rate - average (BRL/EUR) FX Rate - end of year (USD/EUR) FX Rate - average (USD/EUR) Balance of Payments Exports (USD billion) Imports (USD billion) Trade Balance (USD billion) Current Account (USD billion) Current Account (% of GDP) International Reserves (USD billion) Sovereign Risk - end of year (bps) Public Sector Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Total Net Debt (% of GDP) Sources: Bacen, IBGE, FGV, FIPE, Secex Projections: BESI Brasil no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

6 Contact information ESPÍRITO SANTO INVESTMENT BANK Brasil Address: Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, th floor - Itaim Bibi ZIP São Paulo SP, BRAZIL Telephone: Fax: besinvestimento@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman: BES INVESTIMENTO DO BRASIL BANCO DE INVESTIMENTO Ricardo Espirito Santo Chief executive officer presidencia@espiritosantoib.com.br Project Finance, Acquisition Finance, Structured Trade Finance & Other Loans Alan Fernandes alanf@espiritosantoib.com.br Capital Markets Miguel Guiomar mguiomar@espiritosantoib.com.br Corporate Finance Maria Luiza Baroni mlbaroni@espiritosantoib.com.br Fixed Income (Sales & Trading) & Treasury Roberto Simões rsimoes@espiritosantoib.com.br Client Coverage Miguel Lins miguell@espiritosantoib.com.br Silvan Suassuna ssuassuna@espiritosantoib.com.br Geraldo Rinaldi grinaldi@espiritosantoib.com.br Eduardo Bierrenbach ebierrenbach@espiritosantoib.com.br Diogo Senra dsenra@espiritosantoib.com.br BES Securities do Brasil Brokerage house Rui Marques rmarques@espiritosantoib.com.br BESAF BES Ativos Financeiros Asset Management Paulo Cesar Werneck pwerneck@espiritosantoib.com.br Espirito Santo Serviços Financeiros Wealth Management José Carlos Mendes Domingos E. S. Pereira Coutinho jmendes@espiritosantoib.com.br domingosc@espiritosantoib.com.br bCapital - Private Equity Manuel de Sousa mdesousa@2bcapital.com.br Guilherme Rochlitz Quintão gquintao@2bcapital.com.br Management Control, Risk Management & Investor Relations Carlos Guzzo cguzzo@espiritosantoib.com.br no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own