MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Transcrição

1 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS ON EXCHANGE-RATE AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC GROWTH Economic Research Department - DEPEC

2 * 2014* Fonte: IBGE e IPEA Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % BRAZILIAN GDP ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE YEARS Média dos 20 anos anteriores: 2,7% AVERAGE: 2.7% YEARS Média dos 11 anos: AVERAGE: 3,6% 3.6% SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

3 THE KEY CHALLENGES OF BRAZILIAN ECONOMY: DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR MARKET AND EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT 3 3

4 LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY EXPLAINED BY DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS TOO SLOWLY 4

5 Milhões BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE (SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE ,2 166, ,0 93, Total Population Work Force Supply Demand 6,7 Unemployed 5 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

6 jul/05 out/05 jan/06 abr/06 jul/06 out/06 jan/07 abr/07 jul/07 out/07 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (12-MONTHS CHANGE) 4.0% 3.38% 3.49% Demand Supply 3.0% 2.61% 2.0% 1.67% 1.55% 1.80% 2.01% 2.04% 1.77% 1.43% 1.0% 1.22% 0.62% 0.73% 0.0% 6 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

7 Milhões 18 a 24 BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION) SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

8 POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH WORLD AND BRAZIL 1.64% 1.44% 1.41% Brasil BRAZIL Mundo WORLD 1.24% 1.04% 1.26% 1.17% 1.12% 1.02% 0.96% 0.84% 0.98% 0.87% 0.64% 0.75% 0.44% 0.63% 0.24% 0.04% SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO

9 Fonte: IBGE TAXA DE DESEMPREGO BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE ( ) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

10 * 2014* BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB 000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS Em postos de trabalho GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco 2,500 2,000 2,137 1,500 1,523 1,254 1,229 1,617 1,452 1,566 1, , SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

11 BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.3% -2.0% SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

12 jan/10 fev/10 mar/10 abr/10 mai/10 jun/10 jul/10 ago/10 set/10 out/10 nov/10 dez/10 jan/11 fev/11 mar/11 abr/11 mai/11 jun/11 jul/11 ago/11 set/11 out/11 nov/11 dez/11 jan/12 fev/12 mar/12 abr/12 mai/12 jun/12 jul/12 ago/12 set/12 out/12 nov/12 dez/12 jan/13 fev/13 mar/13 abr/13 mai/13 jun/13 jul/13 ago/13 set/13 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS BRADESCO SURVEY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SETORES AGREGADOS Pesquisa Proprietária REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA TODOS OS SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

13 INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS NOT PREPARED FOR INCREASED COSTS OF WAGES. BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH 13

14 United Kingdom Korea, Republic of Mexico Taiwan United States Germany Netherlands France Finland Italy Canada Austria Belgium Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Hungary Sweden Denmark Poland Norway Switzerland New Zealand Japan Philippines Israel Estonia Australia Czech Republic Singapore Slovakia Brazil PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, % 94.5% 80% 79.4% 60% 40% 20% 8.9% 16.0% 23.0% 25.3% 27.9% 28.9% 31.0% 33.8% 35.2% 42.9% 47.7% 49.3% 57.9% 61.0% 0% -1.5% -20% 14 SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO

15 jun/05 ago/05 out/05 dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 abr/07 jun/07 ago/07 out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE 2006 = SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

16 BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) Fonte: IBGE PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 11.0% 10.5% 8.3% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.7% 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.4% -1.0% -2.6% -5.0% -9.0% -7.4% 16 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

17 AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL KEEP CONSUMPTION INCREASING. BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN SOCIAL MOBILILITY ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICE. 17

18 BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) 15.0% 13.5% 12.0% 10.7% 12.0% 9.8% 9.0% 6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.8% 6.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 18 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

19 jul/04 set/04 nov/04 jan/05 mar/05 mai/05 jul/05 set/05 nov/05 jan/06 mar/06 mai/06 jul/06 set/06 nov/06 jan/07 mar/07 mai/07 jul/07 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES Em milhões A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING Classes AVERAGE ABC Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO

20 BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE 70% 60% * 58.9% CLASSE A: R$ OU MAIS CLASSE B: DE R$ A R$ CLASSE C: DE R$ A R$ % CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ % CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ % 37.9% 33.3% 30% 20% 20.0% 18.4% 17.9% 16.3% 11.9% 10% 3.8% 7.9% 5.7% 5.0% 4.8% 5.1% 20 00% Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

21 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 em mil toneladas Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco Produção Nacional de Grãos (Arroz, Feijão, Milho, Trigo, Soja, Algodão) BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION EM MIL TON 190, , , , , , ,267 96, , , , , , , , , ,898 90,000 70,000 50,000 68,400 68,253 57,901 76,035 81,065 78,427 83,030 30, SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO * Projeção

22 INFLATION BEHAVIOUR WILL DEPEND ON: FOOD, SERVICES AND PASS THROUGH 22

23 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05 jan/06 abr/06 jul/06 out/06 jan/07 abr/07 jul/07 out/07 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/ % Nominal income 112.2% 100.0% Services inflation 96.3% 80.0% 76.8% 69.5% 86.7% 60.0% 49.7% 56.1% 40.0% 26.2% 36.3% 20.0% 14.8% 19.8% 0.0% 3.1% 23 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

24 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05 jan/06 abr/06 jul/06 out/06 jan/07 abr/07 jul/07 out/07 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/ % 95.0% nominal income durable goods 85.01% 96.25% 95.05% % 75.0% 72.07% 74.86% 55.0% 49.73% 60.93% 34.85% 35.0% 23.28% 25.72% 15.0% 9.32% 11.13% 8.38% 8.40% 7.23% 5.28% 7.09% 1.33% 3.10% -5.0% 3.64% 24 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

25 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 set/13 BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOOD COMPONENT (12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE) 12M 20.00% 18.00% 18.45% 16.00% 15.71% 14.00% 13.28% 13.37% 12.00% 11.20% 10.00% 8.00% 9.84% 6.67% 10.68% 9.81% 10.80% 10.02% 11.93% 8.41% 6.00% 6.22% 4.00% 4.48% 2.31% 2.00% 2.29% 1.57% 0.88% 0.00% 25 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

26 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 set/13 nov/13 BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE 8.5% 7.5% 7.23% 6.5% 6.41% 6.87% 6.70% 5.5% 5.22% 5.84% 5.90% 4.5% 4.17% 4.84% 4.92% 3.5% 2.5% 26 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

27 * 2014* IPCA VARIAÇÃO ANUAL FONTE: IBGE. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES (*): BRADESCO BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) * 14.0% 12.0% 12.53% 10.0% 9.30% 8.0% 7.60% 6.0% 5.69% 5.90% 5.91% 6.50% 5.84% 5.90% 5.80% 4.0% 3.14% 4.46% 4.31% 2.0% 0.0% 27 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

28 PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE IN BRAZIL GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION, LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH 28

29 (p) 2014 (p) INVESTMENTS FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

30 * * 2020* BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE Média por Ano ,8 8,6 8,3 7,8 7,3 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,5 6,8 6,7 6,8 7,0 6,3 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,5 5,9 5,8 30 SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

31 OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE 31 31

32 mar-08 jun-08 set-08 dez-08 mar-09 jun-09 set-09 dez-09 mar-10 jun-10 set-10 dez-10 mar-11 jun-11 set-11 dez-11 mar-12 jun-12 set-12 dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 mar-14 jun-14 set-14 dez-14 Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) % 13.75% 13.00% 13.0% 12.0% 11.75% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 12.75% 11.25% 10.25% 8.75%8.75% 10.25% 9.50% 10.75% 11.25% 12.50% 12.00% 11.00% 10.50% 9.75% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.25% 8.50% 8.00% 10.25% 10.25% 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 6.0% 32 SOURCE: BCB FORECAST: BRADESCO

33 07/10/09 07/11/09 07/12/09 07/01/10 07/02/10 07/03/10 07/04/10 07/05/10 07/06/10 07/07/10 07/08/10 07/09/10 07/10/10 07/11/10 07/12/10 07/01/11 07/02/11 07/03/11 07/04/11 07/05/11 07/06/11 07/07/11 07/08/11 07/09/11 07/10/11 07/11/11 07/12/11 07/01/12 07/02/12 07/03/12 07/04/12 07/05/12 07/06/12 07/07/12 07/08/12 07/09/12 07/10/12 07/11/12 07/12/12 07/01/13 07/02/13 07/03/13 07/04/13 07/05/13 07/06/13 07/07/13 07/08/13 07/09/13 07/10/13 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ DECEMBER 2008 R$ 2.34 / US$ DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1.74 / US$ DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1.67 / US$ DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1.88 / US$ DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2.04 / US$ DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2.25 / US$ DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2.35 / US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

34 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ Taxa de Câmbio (final de ano) R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco R$/US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

35 28/10/09 27/11/09 27/12/09 26/01/10 25/02/10 27/03/10 26/04/10 26/05/10 25/06/10 25/07/10 24/08/10 23/09/10 23/10/10 22/11/10 22/12/10 21/01/11 20/02/11 22/03/11 21/04/11 21/05/11 20/06/11 20/07/11 19/08/11 18/09/11 18/10/11 17/11/11 17/12/11 16/01/12 15/02/12 16/03/12 15/04/12 15/05/12 14/06/12 14/07/12 13/08/12 12/09/12 12/10/12 11/11/12 11/12/12 10/01/13 09/02/13 11/03/13 10/04/13 10/05/13 09/06/13 09/07/13 08/08/13 07/09/13 07/10/13 US TREASURIES 10 YEARS TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO Fonte: Bloomberg 4.20 Em % SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

36 CHINESE GDP ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco SOURCE: CEIC FORECAST: BRADESCO

37 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION) 14,000 5,000-4,000-13,000-1,811-7,637 4,177 13,985 13,643 11,679 1,551-22,000-31,000-40,000-49,000-58,000-67,000-18,384-23,502-30,452-33,416-25,335-24,225-23,215-24,302-28,192-47,273-52,480-54,246-76,000-85,000-79,645-76, SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

38 * 2014* FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT US$ million 72,000 66,660 65,272 63,000 60,000 60,000 54,000 45,000 45,058 48,506 36,000 32,779 34,585 27,000 18,000 28,856 28,578 22,457 16,590 18,146 15,066 18,822 25,949 9,000 10, SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO

39 DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO (average) GDP% CPI (IPCA) % WPI (IGP-M) % Nominal rates (Selic) 8.75% 10.75% 11.00% 7.25% 10.00% 10.25% 8.42% Industrial Production % -7.4% 10.5% 0.4% -2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Unemployment rate % % BRL (R/US$) average BRL (R/US$) eop Exports (US$ Bn) Imports (US$ Bn) Trade balance (US$ Bn) Current account (US$ Bn) Current account % of GDP -1.6% -2.3% -2.1% -2.4% -3.6% -3.4% -2.7% International Reserves (US$ Bn) FDI (US$ Bn) CRB (Average) n/a Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average n/a n/a Fiscal balance % of GDP Net Public debt % of GDP Credit outstanding %YoY Non-performing loans Individuals 7.7% 5.7% 7.4% 7.9% 6.5% 7.2% 5.8% Companies 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 4.2% 2.9% 45 Estimation based on information available until 7 th October, 2013

40 DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned. Updated 7 th October, 2013