Jul-14. Jul-13. Oct-12. Oct-14. Oct-13. Jan-13. Jan-14. Jan-15. Apr-14. Apr-13. Apr-15

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1 July 13 to 17 With negotiations involving Greece and its European partners still dominating markets, the international front will see quite a few relevant events during this week, such as monetary policy decisions in Canada, the Euro Zone and Japan, as well as Chinese GDP data and plenty of speeches from FOMC members. However, the highlight should be Ms Yellen s semi-annual testimony to the US Congress, which we expect to bring crucial clues about the timing, shape and magnitude of the tightening cycle that that country is likely to face. In Brazil, the data stream is thinner than abroad and it will focus on economic activity with the release of retail sales and the Brazilian Central Bank s activity index for May15, which unfortunately are likely to reinforce the prospects for a negative result of the Brazilian economy in 2Q15. Brazil Despite the official view that states that the current situation isn t as bad as headlines of newspapers portray, economic indicators insist on challenging such an upbeat tone. The unemployment rate is on the rise, industrial production has virtually collapsed, there are no room for fiscal incentives and credit conditions are much dearer than before. How can household consumption thrive on the back of such an adverse mix? It can t in our view and the release of retail sales figures for May15 should confirm this as we expect the broader gauge to have declined 1.3% MoM sa (the sixth consecutive drop). It s true that an important part of this performance has to do with the abysmal performance of the automotive sector. However, the picture doesn t get Jankiel Santos Chief economist jsantos@espiritosantoib.com.br Flávio Serrano Senior economist fserrano@espiritosantoib.com.br substantially better even factoring out the contribution from that sector. Ombudsman Taking into account the narrower gauge of retail sales which excludes the performances of building material stores and vehicles and auto-parts dealers our simulation points towards an expansion of 0.3% MoM sa in May15, which can be considered a quite weak outcome after having registered three drops in a row. Apparently, the relief observed in foodstuff inflation has managed to give some impulse to supermarkets sales in that period, but the deterioration in labour market conditions and the substantial increases in administered prices which cannot be avoided by consumers are likely to weigh on the segment in the coming months. That is, the prospects for household consumption are far from encouraging. Chart 1: Retail sales gauges (2011=100, sa) Narrow sales Broad sales Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Source: IBGE, BESI Brasil. - Forecast With consumption losing steam, investments facing hard times on the back of probes allegedly involving some of the biggest contractors of the country and the public sector pursuing a thriftier stance in order to avoid a downgrade in its credit ratings, it s up to net exports to provide some thrust to economic expansion and they have been doing so. However, given that the Brazilian economy is far from open, this hasn t been enough to offset all the other headwinds the economy has been facing. As a result, GDP has been falling and signs for 2Q15 point to continuation of this trend. That s the backdrop we expect the economic activity index built by the Brazilian Central Bank dubbed IBC-BR to show in the coming days. According to our simulation, the IBC-BR for May15 should have declined 0.3% MoM sa, which would be its third consecutive drop in seasonally adjusted terms. What s more, the reading if confirmed will mean a negative carry-over estimate for 2Q15 a 1.8% QoQ sa fall in our calculations which underpins our view that the Brazilian economy hasn t reached the bottom yet and, hence, is still far from a turning point. A equipe do Departamento Econômico do BES Investimento do Brasil S/A - Banco de Investimento elaborou esta mensagem com propósito meramente informativo, baseada em informações disponíveis ao público e obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, porém, não garante sua precisão e abrangência. As considerações apresentadas no texto refletem apenas as opiniões atuais da área e estão sujeitas a alterações sem aviso prévio. O BES Investimento do Brasil - Banco de Investimento não tem nenhuma obrigação de atualizar ou manter atualizada as informações e opiniões expressas no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

2 Chart 2: CB s economic activity index (2002=100, sa) IBC-BR Qtly avg Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Source: Banco Central do Brasil, BESI Brasil. - Forecast This lacklustre environment is expected to see some deflationary impact ahead and inflation expectations for the coming years have already started declining according to the Brazilian Central Bank s Focus report. That s the reason why market participants including ourselves believe that the on-going monetary tightening cycle is about to be adjourned soon, with the Selic target rate likely to reach 14.50% pa in early Sep15. Unfortunately, though, the high level of interest rate should prevail for quite a while in order to insulate the Brazilian economy from the fallout that the high inflation level of this year is likely to have caused. Consequently, one should not expect the resumption of activity growth anytime soon. Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 08-20/Jul - - Russia Hosts BRICs Summit /Jul - - Chinese Money Supply M2 YoY Jun % 10.8% 12-13/Jul - - Chinese Trade Balance Jun - - $56.70B $59.49B 12-13/Jul - - Chinese Exports YoY Jun % -2.5% 12-13/Jul - - Chinese Imports YoY Jun % -17.6% 13-20/Jul - - Brazilian Formal Job Creation Total - CAGED Jun , /Jul - - Brazilian Tax Collections Jun R$ 96.5B - - R$ 91.5B Monday 01:30 Japanese Industrial Production MoM May F % 01:30 Japanese Capacity Utilization MoM May % 06:00 Italy to Sell Bonds :25 Brazilian CB's Focus - IPCA Jul % 10:00 Euro-Area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels :00 Brazilian Trade Balance - 2 nd week Jul $636M 15:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Jun - - $41.0B -$83.4B Tuesday 03:00 German CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun F % 0.1% 04:00 Spanish CPI EU Harmonised YoY Jun F % 0.0% 05:00 Italian CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun F % 0.2% 05:30 British CPI YoY Jun % 0.1% 05:30 British CPI Core YoY Jun % 0.9% 06:00 Euro-zone Industrial Production SA MoM May % 0.1% 06:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations Jul :00 Euro-zone ZEW Survey Expectations Jul no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

3 Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 06:10 ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result :00 Brazilian Retail Sales MoM May 0.3% -0.2% -0.4% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales YoY May -2.9% -3.0% -3.5% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad MoM May -1.3% % 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad YoY May -10.4% % 09:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jun % 1.2% 09:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun % 1.0% 09:30 US Import Price Index YoY Jun % -9.6% 11:00 US Business Inventories May % 0.4% 18:00 Chilean CB sets the base interest rate 14-Jul % 3.00% 21:15 Fed's George speaks in Kansas City :00 Chinese Retail Sales YoY Jun % 10.1% 23:00 Chinese Industrial Production YoY Jun % 6.1% 23:00 Chinese GDP YoY 2Q % 7.0% 23:00 Chinese GDP SA QoQ 2Q % 1.3% Wednesday 00:00 BoJ Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference :45 French CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun % 0.3% 06:30 Germany to Sell 2025 Bonds :30 U.K. to Sell I/L 2026 Bonds :30 Brazilian Economic Activity MoM May -0.3% -0.6% -0.8% 08:30 Brazilian Economic Activity YoY May -4.4% -3.8% -3.1% 09:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Jun % -1.1% 09:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jun % 09:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jul :15 US Industrial Production MoM Jun % -0.2% 10:15 US Capacity Utilization Jun % 78.1% 11:00 Canadian CB sets the base interest rate 15-Jul % 0.75% 11:00 Yellen's Semi-Annual Testimony to House Financial Panel :25 Fed's Mester speaks in Columbus, Ohio :00 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book :00 Fed's Williams speaks in Phoenix Thursday 05:30 Spain to Sell Bonds :50 France to Sell Bonds :00 Euro-zone Trade Balance SA May B 24.3B 06:00 Euro-zone CPI YoY Jun F % 0.2% 06:00 Euro-zone CPI Core YoY Jun F % 0.8% 06:50 France to Sell I/L Bonds :00 Brazilian FGV Inflation IGP-10 MoM Jul 0.67% % 08:00 Brazilian FGV CPI IPC-S 15-Jul 0.66% % 08:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate 16-Jul % 0.05% 08:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate 16-Jul % -0.20% no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

4 Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 08:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 16-Jul % 0.30% 09:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 11-Jul K 297K 11:00 Yellen's Semi-Annual Testimony to Senate Banking Panel :00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jul :00 US Total Net TIC Flows May $106.6B Friday 05:00 Brazilian FIPE CPI - 2 nd week Jul 0.48% % Source: Bloomberg, BESI Brasil. 09:30 US Housing Starts Jun K 1036K 09:30 US Building Permits Jun K 1250K 09:30 US CPI YoY Jun % 0.0% 09:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jun % 1.7% 09:30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Jun % 11:00 Fed's Fischer speaks in Washington :00 U. of Mich. Sentiment index Jul P :00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Jul P % 11:00 U. of Mich Yr Inflation Jul P % 22:30 Chinese Property Prices Jun Brazilian CNI Industrial Confidence Jul no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

5 E 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E National Accounts GDP (BRL billion) 5, , ,864 6,294 6,688 GDP (USD billion) 2, , ,906 1,964 2,024 GDP - Real Growth (%) Economic Activity Industrial Production (%) Unemployment Rate (%) - average Price Indices IPCA - Consumer Price Index (%) IGP-M - General Price Index (%) IGP-DI - General Price Index (%) Interest Rates Selic Target - end of year (%) Selic - average (%) Real Interest Rate - Selic/IPCA (%) TJLP - Long Term Interest Rates (%) FX Rates FX Rate - end of year (BRL/USD) FX Rate - average (BRL/USD) FX Rate - end of year (BRL/EUR) FX Rate - average (BRL/EUR) FX Rate - end of year (USD/EUR) FX Rate - average (USD/EUR) Balance of Payments Exports (USD billion) Imports (USD billion) Trade Balance (USD billion) Current Account (USD billion) Current Account (% of GDP) International Reserves (USD billion) Sovereign Risk - end of year (bps) Public Sector Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Total Net Debt (% of GDP) Sources: Bacen, IBGE, FGV, FIPE, Secex Projections: BESI Brasil no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

6 Contact information BESI Brasil S.A. Banco de Investimento Address: Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, th floor - Itaim Bibi ZIP São Paulo SP, BRAZIL Telephone: / Fax: / contato@besibrasil.com.br Ombudsman: BESI BRASIL BANCO DE INVESTIMENTO CEO Rafael Valverde presidencia@espiritosantoib.com.br Deputy CEOs Alan Fernandes alanf@espiritosantoib.com.br Frederico Alegria falegria@espiritosantoib.com.br Structured Operations Alan Fernandes, Global Head alanf@espiritosantoib.com.br Capital Markets Miguel Guiomar, Head mguiomar@espiritosantoib.com.br Corporate Finance Daniela Pineli dpineli@espiritosantoib.com.br Fixed Income (Sales & Trading) & Treasury Frederico Alegria, Global Head Roberto Simões, Head falegria@espiritosantoib.com.br rsimoes@espiritosantoib.com.br Client Relationship and Origination Miguel Lins, Head Silvan Suassuna Geraldo Rinaldi Eduardo Bierrenbach Luciana Costa miguell@espiritosantoib.com.br ssuassuna@espiritosantoib.com.br grinaldi@espiritosantoib.com.br ebierrenbach@espiritosantoib.com.br laparecida@espiritosantoib.com.br Asset Management Paulo Werneck, Head pwerneck@espiritosantoib.com.br BESI Securities do Brasil CCVM Alvaro Maia / Pedro Fonseca amaia@espiritosantoib.com.br / pfonseca@espiritosantoib.com.br no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own