Competitiveness in the Brazilian economy: challenges & opportunities

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1 Competitiveness in the Brazilian economy: challenges & opportunities Erik Camarano MBC CEO Thursday, June 6th, 2013 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 6th Floor Auditorium

2 SPONSORS

3 SHORT-TERM SCENARIO ECONOMY: Relative macroeconomic stability; High volume of foreign reserves; Low growth (expected 2.4% in 2013); Inflationary pressure; Over-heated job market; Over-valued currency.

4 DOMESTIC SAVINGS / GDP RATIO Nominal prices China:52% Índia: 33% Argentina: 27,3% México: 24,7% Chile: 22,6% Colômbia: 22,3% Brasil: 17% Source: CEPAL / CEIC Data and Asia Development Bank

5 INVESTMENT x GROWTH % investment x % GDP growth correlation Investment rate (% GDP) GDP growth (%) 16,4 1,5 17,9 2,0 19,5 2,5 21,0 3,0 22,5 3,5 24,0 4,0 25,5 4,5 Assuming a capital/output ratio of 2.7 YEAR Cases: Brasil and China Investment rate (% GDP) GDP growth (%) Brasil China Brasil China ,8 34,5 5,9 13, ,4 31,8 3,4 9, ,7 33,5 0,3 7, ,0 34,6 1,3 8, ,3 39,2 1,1 10, ,9 40,9 3,2 10, ,4 40,4 6,1 13, ,6 40,2 5,1 9, ,7 40,0E -0,2 8,7 Sources: BRADESCO, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database.

6 Brazilian competitiveness agenda (1/2) 1. Education: Number 6 priority for the citizens 3.8 million kids out of school (age 4-17) Performance decreases with years of study 2. Infrastructure & Logistics: Freight costs above 15% Demand for new investments estimated at US$ 280 billion (5 years) 3. Public pension system reform: Reduce pension deficit on a 20-years schedule Increase domestic savings

7 Brazilian competitiveness agenda (2/2) 4. Goods & services market rigidities: High fiscal burden (36% GDP) x comparable countries (28% GDP) Complexity of rules & fiscal uncertainties 5. Labor market rigidities: Extremely high overhead costs Lack of flexibility in wage negotiations 6. Bureaucracy and red tape: Doing Business = 130 (in 185 countries) Foreign trade regulations (example)

8 Tackling public management

9 Public Management Modernization Program (2005) STRATEGIC PLANNING (BSC) REVENUE INCREASE EXPENDITURE REDUCTION PROCESS REDESIGN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

10 Federal Government Approach 1. Chamber for Management, Performance & Competitivity Policies (CGDC) 4 business leaders 4 core ministries (C.Staff, Treasury, Budget, Development) Monthly schedule, monitored by the President 2. Double-edged approach: Short-term: improve quality of expenditures Long-term: key competitiveness agenda

11 Federal Government Approach 3. Areas of focus (Ministries): Chief of Staff (40 priority programs) Civil Aviation Transportation Planning (BSC for more than 20 Ministries) Communications Culture Justice Public Logistics Planning Company (EPL) Ports (still in fund raising stage)...

12 Estados: Rio de Janeiro (Fase 2 e 3) Goiás Tocantins Pernambuco Paraná Municípios: Porto Alegre/RS (Fase 2) São Paulo/SP (Fase 3) Caxias do Sul/RS Pelotas /RS Rio Grande/RS Órgãos: Casa Civil da Pres. da Rep. Ministério dos Transportes Estados: Bahia (Fase 2) Paraíba Sergipe Alagoas (Fase 3) Rondônia Santa Catarina Espírito Santo Maranhão Piauí Rio Grande do Norte Minas Gerais (Fase 2) Pará (Fase 3), São Paulo (OTB) Municípios: Rio de Janeiro/RJ (Fase 2) Imperatriz/MA Natal/RN Canoas/RS Guarujá/SP (Fase 2) Órgãos: CNJ Ministério dos Esportes INCOR TJSP (Fase 2) Ministério das Comunicações Ministério da Cultura Secretaria de Portos-PR Ministério da Justiça Estados: São Paulo Sergipe Distrito Federal Bahia (Fase 1) Mato Grosso Alagoas Pernambuco (Fase 2) Rio de Janeiro (Fase 1) Minas Gerais Rio Grande do Sul Pará (Fase 2) Municípios: Porto Alegre (Fase 1) Pelotas/RS Rio de Janeiro/RJ (Fase 1) São Paulo (Fases 1 e 2) Aparecida de Goiânia/GO Guarujá/SP Londrina/PR Rio Grande /RS Curitiba/PR Órgãos: Ministério do Desenvolvimento Social TJRS TJSP (Fase 1) Secretaria de Aviação Civil EM ATIVIDADE EM NEGOCIAÇÃO ENCERRADOS

13 THE CASE OF PERNAMBUCO STATE

14 THE CASE OF PERNAMBUCO STATE

15 Challenges Ahead for Brazil Demographic bonus (20-25 years?) Window of opportunity for crucial reforms Improve business environment x pick the winners Increase innovation throughout the country Engage other public levels: Cities administrations Judiciary & Legislative branches...

16 Fone Fax: +55 (61) SBN Quadra 1 - Bloco B - Sala 404 Edifício CNC Brasília/DF erik@mbc.org.br

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