BRAZIL Economics Research

Transcrição

1 January 12 to 16 After the 2014 year-end holidays and a relatively calm start to 2015, market participants are slowly finding their bearings and getting acquainted with news flows again. Abroad, activity indicators referring to advanced economies and some central banks decisions in emerging countries not to mention Chinese external data and several Fed members speeches should grab the attention of market participants. In Brazil, the economic calendar will show some inflation figures, but the highlight should be activity-related data, with the BCB s economic activity indicator the most relevant one. Brazil The beginning of 2015 seems quite similar to what we have been observing on economic data recently: high inflation figures and weak activity performance. After the disappointing industrial production result released last week, which dropped 0.7% MoM sa in Nov14 versus expectation for a 0.5% MoM sa growth, market participants will get acquainted with the behaviour of two important activity indices for Nov14. The Brazilian official statistics bureau IBGE will release the performance of the retail sector next Wednesday and the Brazilian Central Bank will release the readings of its monthly economic activity indicator the so-called IBC- BR the following day. Despite our anticipation of some recovery in retail sales dynamics, it wouldn t be enough to guarantee a positive rate for the GDP s monthly proxy. Jankiel Santos Chief economist jsantos@espiritosantoib.com.br Flávio Serrano Senior economist fserrano@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman According to our calculations, the narrower gauge for retail sales should have expanded 0.5% MoM sa in the period, while the broader index should have grown 0.8% MoM sa. The difference between those measures is that the former factors out the performance of building material stores and autoparts and vehicles dealers. As we believe the vehicle sales in Nov14 were positive in that month, it should have added some strength to broad retail sales. However, it is important to bear in mind that real income expansion is becoming slower and credit conditions stricter, therefore private consumption is likely to remain weak for quite some time and we cannot rule out some deceleration in the coming months. Chart 1: Retail sales gauges (2011=100, sa) Source: Banco Central do Brasil, BESI Brasil. - forecast Despite the increase in Nov14 retail sales in our view offsetting part of the 0.7% MoM sa decline in the industrial sector registered in that month, the IBC-BR the index built by the Brazilian Central Bank to mimic the behaviour of the Brazilian GDP on a monthly basis should have dropped 0.5% MoM sa expansion in Nov14, according to our estimates. What s more, if our estimates prove to be right, the carry-over estimate for the quarterly expansion of the index in 4Q14 would reach -0.4% QoQ sa from 0.0% in the previous reading, thereby increasing chances of a negative print of the GDP in the period. Taking into account that and the preliminary data released on industrial production for Dec14, a new wave of downward reviews to GDP growth in 2014 and 2015 is likely to materialise soon. Currently, we forecast 0.1% for GDP expansion in 2014 and 0.4% in A equipe do Departamento Econômico do BES Investimento do Brasil S/A - Banco de Investimento elaborou esta mensagem com propósito meramente informativo, baseada em informações disponíveis ao público e obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, porém, não garante sua precisão e abrangência. As considerações apresentadas no texto refletem apenas as opiniões atuais da área e estão sujeitas a alterações sem aviso prévio. O BES Investimento do Brasil - Banco de Investimento não tem nenhuma obrigação de atualizar ou manter atualizada as informações e opiniões expressas no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

2 Chart 2: CB's Activity index vs GDP (% QoQ sa) Source: Banco Central do Brasil, BESI Brasil. - forecast Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior Jan Chinese Trade Balance Dec -- $49.00B $54.48B Jan Chinese Exports YoY Dec % 4.7% Jan Chinese Imports YoY Dec % -6.7% Jan Brazilian Formal Job Creation Total Dec Jan Brazilian Tax Collections Dec R$ 104.5B Monday 05:30 Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Dec :00 Brazilian IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview Jan 0.34% % 08:30 Brazilian Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey - IPCA Jan % 15:00 Brazilian Trade Balance Weekly 11-Jan $355M 15:40 Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Atlanta 21:50 Japanese BoP Current Account Balance Nov B 833.4B Tuesday 03:00 Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Dec :00 German Wholesale Price Index YoY Dec % 05:00 Brazilian FIPE CPI - Weekly 7-Jan 0.43% % 07:00 Italian Industrial Production MoM Nov % -0.1% 07:30 British CPI YoY Dec % 1.0% 07:30 British CPI Core YoY Dec % 1.2% 08:00 Merkel Gives Speech to Pro-European Unity Group 17:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Dec -- $24.0B -$56.8B 17:00 Bank of Canada Timothy Lane Gives a Speech 20:00 Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Economic Outlook in New York Wednesday 05:45 French CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec % 0.4% 07:00 Italian CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec F % 07:30 Italian General Government Debt Nov B 08:00 Euro-zone Industrial Production SA MoM Nov % 0.1% 08:00 Merkel, Schaeuble, Draghi at Economic Conference in Berlin no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

3 Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales MoM Nov 0.5% -0.5% 1.0% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales YoY Nov 0.3% -0.6% 1.8% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad MoM Nov 0.8% 1.0% 1.7% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad YoY Nov -3.7% -5.0% -2.6% 11:00 US Fed's Plosser Speaks on the Economy in Philadelphia 11:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Dec % 0.7% 11:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Dec % 0.5% 11:30 US Import Price Index YoY Dec % 13:00 US Business Inventories Nov % 0.2% 21:50 Japanese PPI YoY Dec % 2.7% 21:50 Japanese Machine Orders MoM Nov % -6.4% 23:00 BoK 7-Day Repo Rate 15-Jan % -- Polish Base Rate Announcement 14-Jan % 2.00% Thursday 06:00 Spanish CPI EU Harmonised YoY Dec F % -1.1% 07:00 German GDP NSA YoY 6-Jul % 0.1% 07:00 German Budget Maastricht % of GDP % 0.1% 08:00 Brazilian FGV Inflation IGP-10 MoM Jan 0.47% % 08:00 Euro-zone Trade Balance SA Nov B 19.4B 08:30 Brazilian Economic Activity MoM Nov -0.5% 0.2% -0.3% 08:30 Brazilian Economic Activity YoY Nov -2.5% -0.9% -1.2% 11:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jan :30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Dec % 1.4% 11:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec % 1.8% 11:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 10-Jan K 294K 13:00 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jan :00 Chilean Overnight Rate Target 15-Jan % 3.00% 21:00 Peruvian Reference Rate Jan % 3.50% Friday 05:00 German CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec F % 0.1% 08:00 Euro-zone CPI YoY Dec F % 0.3% 08:00 Euro-zone CPI Core YoY Dec F % 0.8% 08:00 Brazilian FGV CPI IPC-S 15-Jan 1.14% % 10:50 Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy 11:30 US CPI YoY Dec % 1.3% 11:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec % 1.7% 12:15 US Industrial Production MoM Dec % 1.3% 12:15 US Capacity Utilization Dec % 80.1% 13:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Jan P :10 Source: Bloomberg, BESI Brasil. Fed's Bullard Delivers Presentation on U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy 19:00 US Total Net TIC Flows Nov $178.4B -- Brazilian CNI Capacity Utilization (SA) Nov % 80.6% no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

4 E 2015 E 2016 E National Accounts GDP (BRL billion) 4.392, , GDP (USD billion) 2.247, , GDP - Real Growth (%) 1,03 2,49 0,1 0,4 2,5 Economic Activity Industrial Production (%) -2,58 1,14-3,0 1,0 3,0 Unemployment Rate (%)- average 5,51 5,39 5,5 6,0 6,5 Price Indices IPCA - Consumer Price Index (%) 5,84 5,91 6,41 6,5 5,8 IGP-M - General Price Index (%) 7,82 5,51 3,69 5,7 5,1 IGP-DI - General Price Index (%) 8,10 5,52 3,78 5,7 5,1 Interest Rates Selic Target - end of year (%) 7,25 10,00 11,75 12,50 9,50 Selic - average (%) 8,49 8,22 10,90 12,5 10,5 Real Interest Rate - Selic/IPCA (%) 2,51 2,18 4,23 5,6 4,4 TJLP - Long Term Interest Rates (%) 5,75 5,00 5,00 5,88 6,00 FX Rates FX Rate - end of year (BRL/USD) 2,044 2,343 2,656 2,75 2,80 FX Rate - average (BRL/USD) 1,955 2,161 2,355 2,72 2,78 FX Rate - end of year (BRL/EUR) 2,696 3,219 3,213 3,22 3,28 FX Rate - average (BRL/EUR) 2,514 2,870 3,128 3,22 3,25 FX Rate - end of year (USD/EUR) 1,319 1,374 1,210 1,17 1,17 FX Rate - average (USD/EUR) 1,286 1,329 1,329 1,18 1,17 Balance of Payments Exports (USD billion) 242, , , ,0 253,1 Imports (USD billion) 223, , , ,0 248,8 Trade Balance (USD billion) 19,395 2,399-3,930 4,0 4,3 Current Account (USD billion) -54,249-81,374-88,0-72,7-69,0 Current Account (% of GDP) -2,41-3,63-4,0-3,6-3,2 International Reserves (USD billion) 378, , , ,0 370,0 Sovereign Risk - end of year (bps) Public Sector Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2,39 1,88 0,1 1,2 2,0 Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2,48-3,25-5,7-4,5-3,6 Total Net Debt (% of GDP) 35,29 33,57 36,0 37,9 38,1 Sources: Bacen, IBGE, FGV, FIPE, Secex Projections: BESI Brasil no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own

5 Contact information BES Investimento do Brasil S.A. Banco de Investimento Address: Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, th floor - Itaim Bibi ZIP São Paulo SP, BRAZIL Telephone: / Fax: / besinvestimento@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman: BES INVESTIMENTO DO BRASIL BANCO DE INVESTIMENTO Project Finance, Acquisition Finance, Structured Trade Finance & Other Loans Alan Fernandes alanf@espiritosantoib.com.br Capital Markets Miguel Guiomar mguiomar@espiritosantoib.com.br Corporate Finance Maria Luiza Baroni mlbaroni@espiritosantoib.com.br Fixed Income (Sales & Trading) & Treasury Roberto Simões rsimoes@espiritosantoib.com.br Client Coverage Miguel Lins Silvan Suassuna Geraldo Rinaldi Eduardo Bierrenbach Luciana Costa miguell@espiritosantoib.com.br ssuassuna@espiritosantoib.com.br grinaldi@espiritosantoib.com.br ebierrenbach@espiritosantoib.com.br laparecida@espiritosantoib.com.br BES Securities do Brasil Brokerage house Rui Marques rmarques@espiritosantoib.com.br Management Control, Risk Management & Investor Relations Carlos Guzzo cguzzo@espiritosantoib.com.br no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own