MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS ON EXCHANGE-RATE AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC GROWTH Economic Research Department - DEPEC

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* BRAZILIAN GDP ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1984-2014 Fonte: IBGE e IPEA Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984-2014 9.0 7.0 5.0 5.4 7.8 7.5 20 YEARS Média dos 20 anos anteriores: 2,7% AVERAGE: 2.7% 4.7 5.3 4.4 4.3 10 YEARS Média AVERAGE: dos 11 anos: 3.6% 3,6% 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.0 7.5 3.0 1.0 3.5 3.2 1.0 2.1 3.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 1.1 3.2 2.7 1.0 2.3 2.1-1.0-0.1-0.5-0.3-3.0-5.0-4.3 2 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

THE KEY CHALLENGES OF BRAZILIAN ECONOMY: DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR MARKET AND EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT 3

LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY EXPLAINED BY DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS TOO SLOWLY 4

Milhões BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE (SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE 2012 252 202 196,5 152 134,7 102 99,9 93,8 52 2 População total PIA PEA Ocupados 6,1 Desocupados 5 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14 BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (12-MONTHS CHANGE) 4,0% 3,33% 3,49% 3,0% 2,60% 2,75% 2,77% Supply Demand 2,24% 2,0% 1,67% 1,88% 1,61% 2,26% 1,89% 2,34% 1,87% 2,15% 1,77% 1,75% 1,34% 1,26% 1,43% 1,0% 0,68% 0,73% 0,32% 0,0% 0,12% 6 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Milhões 18 a 24 BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION) 25.5 25.0 24.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.5 23.5 23.0 22.5 7 SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH WORLD AND BRAZIL 1.64% 1.44% 1.41% Brasil BRAZIL Mundo WORLD 1.24% 1.04% 1.26% 1.17% 1.12% 1.02% 0.96% 0.84% 0.98% 0.87% 0.64% 0.75% 0.44% 0.63% 0.24% 0.04% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fonte: IBGE TAXA DE DESEMPREGO BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 2015) 11.0 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.3 9.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 7.0 6.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.0 9 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB 000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS Em postos de trabalho GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL 1996-2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco 2,500 2,000 2,137 1,500 1,523 1,254 1,229 1,617 1,452 1,566 1,000 500 658 591 762 645 995 868 731 835 0-500 -271-36 -196-582 -1,000 10 SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.3% -2.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

jan/10 fev/10 mar/10 abr/10 mai/10 jun/10 jul/10 ago/10 set/10 out/10 nov/10 dez/10 jan/11 fev/11 mar/11 abr/11 mai/11 jun/11 jul/11 ago/11 set/11 out/11 nov/11 dez/11 jan/12 fev/12 mar/12 abr/12 mai/12 jun/12 jul/12 ago/12 set/12 out/12 nov/12 dez/12 jan/13 fev/13 mar/13 abr/13 mai/13 jun/13 jul/13 ago/13 set/13 out/13 nov/13 dez/13 jan/14 fev/14 mar/14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS BRADESCO SURVEY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SETORES AGREGADOS Pesquisa Proprietária REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA TODOS OS 10,0 9,7 9,7 8,0 7,6 7,4 7,2 8,0 7,1 9,1 8,9 7,4 7,1 8,5 7,2 8,4 8,1 9,3 9,3 8,3 8,1 7,8 9,2 8,7 8,5 8,2 8,1 8,1 8,6 8,3 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,7 7,6 6,6 6,8 6,0 6,2 6,1 4,0 12 SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS NOT PREPARED FOR INCREASED COSTS OF WAGES. 13 BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH

United Kingdom Mexico Netherlands Germany Greece United States Taiwan France Korea, Republic of Italy Finland Portugal Belgium Spain Austria Ireland Denmark Canada Hungary Poland Sweden Switzerland Norway Israel Czech Republic Japan Philippines New Zealand Estonia Australia Slovakia Singapore Brazil PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2012 crescimento acumulado 100% 90% 87.2% 80% 70% 60% 57.3% 63.4% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 21.1% 22.8% 36.3% 33.5% 25.5% 28.1% 42.1% 47.1% 10% 8.3% 0% 0.0% 14 SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO

jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 abr/07 jun/07 ago/07 out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE 2006 = 100 110 105 100 99,8 102,1 103,6 100,8 98,1 95 90 85 80 75 84,7 75,7 80,6 83,2 84,7 84,2 84,2 82,8 82,2 87,3 87,3 70 65 60 15 SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) Fonte: IBGE PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 11.0% 10.5% 8.3% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.7% 0.1% 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% 0.4% 1.2% 2.5% -1.0% -2.6% -5.0% -9.0% -7.4% 16 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL KEEP CONSUMPTION INCREASING. 17 BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN SOCIAL MOBILILITY ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICE.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) 15.0% 13.4% 12.0% 10.8% 12.0% 9.8% 9.0% 6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.8% 6.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 18 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

nov/04 jan/05 mar/05 mai/05 jul/05 set/05 nov/05 jan/06 mar/06 mai/06 jul/06 set/06 nov/06 jan/07 mar/07 mai/07 jul/07 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 set/13 nov/13 BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES Em milhões A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING Classes AVERAGE ABC Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco 133.0 123.0 120.374 124.475 113.0 106.200 111.907 117.873 118.031 103.0 99.760 97.109 93.0 88.178 83.0 80.617 73.0 19 SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE 70% 60% 2000 2010 2020* 58.9% CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006 CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635 53.2% CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159 50% CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701 40% 37.9% 33.3% 30% 20% 20.0% 18.4% 17.9% 16.3% 11.9% 10% 3.8% 7.9% 5.7% 5.0% 4.8% 5.1% 00% Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A 20 SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14* em mil toneladas Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco Produção Nacional de Grãos (Arroz, Feijão, Milho, Trigo, Soja, Algodão) BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991-2014 EM MIL TON 210.000 190.000 187.438 188.701 170.000 162.803 150.000 144.137 149.255 130.000 110.000 100.267 96.761 123.168 113.898 131.751 90.000 70.000 68.400 57.901 76.035 81.065 78.427 83.030 50.000 30.000 21 SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO * Projeção

INFLATION BEHAVIOUR WILL DEPEND ON: FOOD, SERVICES AND PASS THROUGH 22

fev/04 mai/04 ago/04 nov/04 fev/05 mai/05 ago/05 nov/05 fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004-2014 120,0% Nominal income Services inflation 125,3% 100,0% 96,3% 94,4% 80,0% 76,8% 69,5% 60,0% 49,7% 56,1% 40,0% 26,2% 36,3% 20,0% 14,8% 19,8% 1,4% 0,0% 3,1% 23 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

fev/04 mai/04 ago/04 nov/04 fev/05 mai/05 ago/05 nov/05 fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14 115,0% BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004-2014 nominal income durable goods 128,9% 95,0% 85,0% 96,3% 95,0% 75,0% 72,1% 74,9% 55,0% 49,7% 60,9% 34,8% 35,0% 15,0% 9,3% 23,3% 25,7% 11,1% 8,4% 8,4% 5,3% 7,1% 1,3% 6,4% 7,2% -5,0% 3,1% 24 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOOD COMPONENT (12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE) 12M 20,0% 18,45% 16,0% 15,71% 13,28% 13,37% 12,0% 10,68% 9,81% 10,80% 8,0% 9,84% 6,67% 8,05% 6,22% 4,0% 4,48% 4,51% 0,0% 0,88% 2,29% 25 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

jun/04 set/04 dez/04 mar/05 jun/05 set/05 dez/05 mar/06 jun/06 set/06 dez/06 mar/07 jun/07 set/07 dez/07 mar/08 jun/08 set/08 dez/08 mar/09 jun/09 set/09 dez/09 mar/10 jun/10 set/10 dez/10 mar/11 jun/11 set/11 dez/11 mar/12 jun/12 set/12 dez/12 mar/13 jun/13 set/13 dez/13 mar/14 jun/14 set/14 dez/14 BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE 8,5% 8,07% 7,5% 7,18% 6,5% 6,06% 5,5% 6,02% 6,36% 5,70% 6,41% 5,90% 5,22% 6,87% 7,23% 5,99% 6,70% 6,60% 5,91% 6,35% 6,31% 5,53% 4,5% 4,03% 4,18% 4,17% 4,84% 4,92% 3,5% 2,5% 2,96% 26 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* IPCA VARIAÇÃO ANUAL 2002-2014. FONTE: IBGE. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES (*): BRADESCO BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2004-2014* 8,0% 7,60% 7,0% 6,0% 5,69% 5,90% 5,91% 6,50% 5,84% 5,91% 6,31% 5,0% 4,0% 4,46% 4,31% 3,0% 3,14% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 27 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE IN BRAZIL GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION, LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE 28 GROWTH

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (p) INVESTMENTS FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) 24.0 21.0 21.3 18.0 15.0 13.9 13.6 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0-3.0 1.5 8.7-0.3 5.0 0.4 9.1 3.6 9.8 4.7 6.3 4.0-6.0-9.0-8.2-5.2-4.6-6.7-4.0-12.0 29 29 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012* 2020* BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE Média por Ano - 25 8,8 8,6 8,3 7,8 7,3 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,5 6,8 6,7 6,8 7,0 6,3 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,5 5,9 5,8 30 SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE 31 31

mar-08 jun-08 set-08 dez-08 mar-09 jun-09 set-09 dez-09 mar-10 jun-10 set-10 dez-10 mar-11 jun-11 set-11 dez-11 mar-12 jun-12 set-12 dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 mar-14 jun-14 set-14 dez-14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014 Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic 14,0% 13,75% 13,00% 13,0% 12,0% 11,75% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 12,75% 11,25% 10,25% 8,75%8,75% 10,25% 9,50% 10,75% 11,25% 12,50% 12,00% 11,00% 10,50% 9,75% 9,00% 8,50% 8,00% 7,25% 8,50% 8,00% 10,75% 11,00% 11,00% 10,50% 10,00% 9,50% 9,00% 6,0% 32 SOURCE: BCB FORECAST: BRADESCO

01/04/09 01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/09 01/12/09 01/01/10 01/02/10 01/03/10 01/04/10 01/05/10 01/06/10 01/07/10 01/08/10 01/09/10 01/10/10 01/11/10 01/12/10 01/01/11 01/02/11 01/03/11 01/04/11 01/05/11 01/06/11 01/07/11 01/08/11 01/09/11 01/10/11 01/11/11 01/12/11 01/01/12 01/02/12 01/03/12 01/04/12 01/05/12 01/06/12 01/07/12 01/08/12 01/09/12 01/10/12 01/11/12 01/12/12 01/01/13 01/02/13 01/03/13 01/04/13 01/05/13 01/06/13 01/07/13 01/08/13 01/09/13 01/10/13 01/11/13 01/12/13 01/01/14 01/02/14 01/03/14 01/04/14 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009-2014 2,45 2,25 2,05 2,25 2,00 DECEMBER 2008 R$ 2.34 / US$ DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1.74 / US$ DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1.67 / US$ DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1.88 / US$ DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2.04 / US$ DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2.34 / US$ DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2.40 / US$ 2,03 2,08 2,46 2,25 2,12 2,14 2,04 2,33 2,15 2,44 2,36 2,26 1,85 1,86 1,88 1,91 1,88 1,99 1,95 1,74 1,65 1,70 1,73 1,65 1,64 1,72 1,69 1,45 1,54 33 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000-2014 Taxa de Câmbio (final de ano) - 2003-2012- R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco 3.80 R$/US$ 3.53 3.20 2.89 2.65 2.60 2.00 1.96 2.32 2.34 2.14 1.77 2.34 1.74 1.67 1.88 2.04 2.35 2.40 1.40 0.80 34 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO

24/04/10 24/05/10 23/06/10 23/07/10 22/08/10 21/09/10 21/10/10 20/11/10 20/12/10 19/01/11 18/02/11 20/03/11 19/04/11 19/05/11 18/06/11 18/07/11 17/08/11 16/09/11 16/10/11 15/11/11 15/12/11 14/01/12 13/02/12 14/03/12 13/04/12 13/05/12 12/06/12 12/07/12 11/08/12 10/09/12 10/10/12 09/11/12 09/12/12 08/01/13 07/02/13 09/03/13 08/04/13 08/05/13 07/06/13 07/07/13 06/08/13 05/09/13 05/10/13 04/11/13 04/12/13 03/01/14 02/02/14 04/03/14 03/04/14 US TREASURIES 10 YEARS 2010-2014 TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006-2013. Fonte: Bloomberg 4,20 3,70 Em % 3,549 3,20 2,70 2,20 3,364 2,792 2,383 3,170 2,864 2,219 2,269 1,668 2,994 2,739 2,484 2,165 1,938 3,028 2,788 2,797 2,576 2,502 1,70 2,048 1,663 1,615 1,20 1,508 35 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CHINESE GDP ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1997-2016 China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco 16.0 14.0 12.7 14.2 12.0 10.0 8.0 9.3 7.8 7.6 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.3 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 36 36 SOURCE: CEIC FORECAST: BRADESCO

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION) 20,000 0-1,811-7,637 4,177 13,985 13,643 11,679 1,551-20,000-40,000-18,384-23,502-30,452-33,416-25,335-24,225-23,215-28,192-24,302-60,000-47,273-52,480-54,246-80,000-81,374-74,256-100,000 37 SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT US$ million 70,000 66,660 65,272 64,045 60,000 60,000 50,000 45,058 48,506 40,000 32,779 34,585 30,000 20,000 28,856 28,578 22,457 16,590 18,146 15,066 18,822 25,949 10,000 10,144 0 38 SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES VEHICLES 2013 Buses 14,3% Trucks 11,1% Light Commercials 4,3% Automotive Complex -0,9% Cars -3,1% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 39 SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES VEHICLES 2014 Light Commercials 0,7% Automotive Complex 0,5% Cars 0,5% Buses 0,0% Trucks 0,0% 0,0% 0,2% 0,4% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0% 40 SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Vendas Internas do Complexo Automotivo (Automóveis, Comerciais Leves, Caminhões e Ônibus) - 1980-2009 Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco (*) Projeção DOMESTIC SALES AUTOMOTIVE COMPLEX 1993-2014 4.300 IN THOUSAND UNITS 3.800 3.515 3.633 3.802 3.767 3.787 3.300 3.141 2.800 2.820 2.463 2.300 1.800 1.300 1.131 1.395 1.728 1.943 1.534 1.257 1.601 1.479 1.579 1.928 800 300 SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO * Projeção

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* VARIAÇÃO % DAS VENDAS DE AUTOMÓVEIS E COMERCIAIS LEVES - 2004-2013 DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION CARS AND LIGHT COMMERCIALS 2004-2014 Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco 30,0% 27,8% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 13,1% 14,1% 12,6% 10,0% 9,8% 9,5% 10,6% 6,1% 5,0% 2,9% 0,0% 0,5% -1,5% -5,0% SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO * Projeção

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco Variação % das Vendas de Caminhões 2004-2011 DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION - TRUCKS 2004-2014 45,0% 43,5% 35,0% 25,0% 25,2% 29,2% 24,0% 15,0% 9,6% 11,1% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -3,2% -5,1% -15,0% -10,0% -25,0% -19,5% SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO * Projeção

40,0% Ônibus DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION - BUSES 2004-2014 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 10,7% 28,6% 17,4% 17,7% 25,6% 21,9% 14,3% 0,0% 0,0% -10,0% -12,9% -20,0% -17,1% -16,8% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* SOURCE: ANFAVEA PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO * Projeção

DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2020 (average) GDP% -0.3 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.3 2.1 3,4 CPI (IPCA) % 4.31 5.91 6.50 5.84 5.91 6.30 5,2 WPI (IGP-M) % -1.7 11.3 5.1 7.8 5.5 6.0 5,0 Nominal rates (Selic) 8.75 10.75 11.00 7.25 10.00 11.00 9,42% Industrial Production % -7.4 10.5 0.4-2.6 1.2 2.5 3,1% Unemployment rate % 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 5,6% BRL (R/US$) average 2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.35 2,55 BRL (R/US$) eop 1.74 1.67 1.88 2.04 2.34 2.40 2,65 Exports (US$ Bn) 153.0 201.9 256.0 242.6 242.2 248.9 303,7 Imports (US$ Bn) 127.6 181.8 226.2 223.1 239.6 242.0 276,8 Trade balance (US$ Bn) 25.4 20.1 29.8 19.4 2.6 6.9 26,8 Current account (US$ Bn) -24.3-47.3-52.5-54.2-81.4-73.2-83,6 Current account % of GDP -1.6-2.2-2.1-2.4-3.6-3.2-3,1% International Reserves (US$ Bn) 239.1 288.6 352.0 378.6 373.5 382.8 434,1 FDI (US$ Bn) 25.9 48.5 66.7 65.3 64.0 60.0 72,7 CRB (Average) 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 n/a Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 n/a Fiscal balance % of GDP 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 2,0 Net Public debt % of GDP 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.1 33.8 35.5 37,5 Credit outstanding %YoY 15,1 20,6 18,8 16,4 14,7 13,2 10,5 Non-performing loans Households 7,7% 5,7% 7,4% 7,9% 6,7% 6,8% 5,8% Companies 3,8% 3,5% 3,9% 4,0% 3,1% 3,5% 2,9% 45 Estimation based on information available until 10 th March, 2014

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