Method AiBi and Logistics for the projection of small areas: an application to micro-angicos - RN

Transcrição

1 Mehod AB and Logscs for he projecon of small areas: an applcaon o mcro-angcos - RN Crsane Slva Corrêa CEDELAR/UFMG e UFRN Luana Junquera Das Myrrha CEDELAR/UFMG e UFRN Moema Fígol CEDELAR/UFMG resened a he Inernaonal Semnar on opulaon Esmaes and rojecons: Mehodologes, Innovaons and Esmaon of Targe opulaon appled o ublc olces 9- November 20,Ro de Janero

2 Goals Dscuss wo mehods of projecon of small area: he logsc and AB 2 Illusrae he applcaon of mehods n he populaon of mcro-angcos / RN, as he larger area and he egh muncpales ha make up he large area.

3 Mehods Logsc and AB rojeced populaon of smaller areas as a funcon of a larger area.

4 Méodo AB 0 0 a 0 0 a b n b a a: he coeffcen of proporonaly of he ncreased populaon of smaller area relave o he ncrease of he populaon of he larger area; b:he lnear coeffcen of correcon

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6 Coeffcen a The coeffcen a repors he percenage growh of he larger area whch he growh of he smaller area was responsable, beween wo perods n a

7 Mehod AB Each populaon of smaller area, a me, s a proporon of he populaon of he larger area, correced by a correcon facor b.

8 Coeffcen b The coeffcen b s a correcon facor ha adjuss he relave dsrbuon of he populaons of small areas a me, o he dsrbuon a he begnnng of he projecon. b can be less han 0. n b 0

9 Lms for b: Consderng ha a can only assume values beween 0 and, we can defne wha are he possble lms for b: lm lm 0 0 a b a a lm lm a b a a

10 Mehod Lmaon I s no conssen when he populaon growh of he larger area, and he smaller areas, have oppose drecons.

11 Soluon o Mehod Lmaon Dvde he larger area no wo subgroups smaller areas growng populaon smaller areas ha decrease n populaon. roblem: resul affeced by he creron chosen o dvde he populaon of he larger area.

12 Anoher soluon: esmae Φ The relaonshp beween and changes from lnear o hyperbolc. No more modeled bu Φ 0< Φ<. / b a a b T b a

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14 New nerpreaon of he coeffcens - b The sgn of b ndcaes he concavy of he hyperbola whch gves he relaonshp beween and : b> 0, he hyperbola s concave and Φ s relaed o n decreasng order; b <0, he hyperbola s convex and he relaonshp beween Φ and s posve. The possbly of havng negave and posve relaonshps beween populaon of small and large areas s he man advanage of modelng Φ nsead of modelng as he mehod AB.

15 New nerpreaon of he coeffcens - a A: he lm of Φ when ends o nfny.

16 Lmes para Φ Analyzng lm 0 e lm Tabela 5 Lmes de Φ para cada combnação de valores de a e b. a b Φ Lme Inferor L Lme Superor L 2 > 0 < 0 0 a > 0 > 0 a < 0 < < 0 > 0 0

17 Logscs funcon The logsc funcon has he advanage of esablshng a lm o growh } exp{ 0 2 L L L ln L L 2 0 ln L L

18 Applcaon of he Mehod Mcro Angcos - RN 8 muncpales: Afonso Bezerra, Angcos, Wnd Rver Caçara Fernando edroza, Garden Angcos, laes, Black Sone, edro Avelno. Known daa: opulaon census n 99 and Toal populaon n 200 esmaed by he exponenal growh rae beween 99 and 2000.

19 Tabela 7 - Observed populaon and he populaon esmaed by A B abd Logscs mehod, by muncpaly,angcos - RN, 200 Muncípo opulação opulação Esmada Recenseada 200 AB Logísco Afonso Bezerra Angcos Caçara do Ro do Veno Fernando edroza Jardm de Angcos Lajes edra rea edro Avelno Toal Fone: Alas do Desenvolvmeno Humano do Brasl e Censo Demográfco, 200.

20 Concluson For he mcro-angcos - RN, he logsc mehod yelded beer resuls. Méodo Soma dos Quadrados dos Erros AB Logísco

21 Referêncas: ATLAS DE DESENVOLVIMENTO HUMANO NO BRASIL. Ro de Janero, NUD, IEA, Fundação João nhero, FRIAS, Luz Armando de M. rojeções da população resdene e do número de domcílos parculares ocupados por suação urbana e rural, segundo as undades da Federação no período In: WONG, Laura R; HAKKERT, Ralph; LIMA, RcardoOrg Fuuro da população braslera: projeções, prevsões e écncas Embu, São aulo: ABE, p48-72, 987. IBGE, Censo Demográfco 200. Dsponível em <hp:// acesso da 03 de junho de 20. WALDVOGEL, B.C. Técncas de projeção populaconal para o planejameno regonal. Belo Horzone, CEDELAR, 998.

22 Crsane Slva Corrêa