A OMC e a emergência da China Prof. Vera Thorstensen

Transcrição

1 A OMC e a emergência da China 2012 Prof. Vera Thorstensen

2 2 Análise Transversal do Sistema Multilateral de Comércio Regras Multilaterais OMC (DSB), FMI, BM, OCDE, UNCTAD, FAO, OMPI Regras Preferenciais Acordos Regionais, Bilaterais e Não Recíprocos Regras Nacionais UE, EUA, China, Índia, África do Sul Brasil

3 Fonte:OMC 3 Perfil de Comércio - Brasil

4 Fonte: OMC 4 Perfil de Comércio - China

5 Perfil Tarifário - Brasil 5 Tariffs and imports: Summary and duty ranges Summary Total Ag Non-Ag WTO member since 1995 Simple average final bound 31,4 35,4 30,7 Binding coverage: Total 100 Simple average MFN applied ,7 10,3 14,2 Non-Ag 100 Trade w eighted average ,0 11,0 9,9 Ag: Tariff quotas (in %) 0.2 Imports in billion US$ ,7 6,5 120,2 Ag: Special safeguards (in % ) 0 Frequency distribution Duty-free 0 <= 5 5 <= <= <= <= <= 100 > 100 NAV Tariff lines and import values (in %) in % Agricultural products Final bound MFN applied Imports Non-agricultural products Final bound MFN applied Imports Fonte: OMC

6 Brasil 6 Product groups Animal products Dairy products Fruit, vegetables, plants Coffee, tea Cereals & preparations Oilseeds, fats & oils Sugars and confectionery Beverages & tobacco Cotton Other agricultural products Fish & fish products Minerals & metals Petroleum Chemicals Wood, paper, etc. Textiles Clothing Leather, footw ear, etc. Non-electrical machinery Electrical machinery Transport equipment Manufactures, n.e.s. Fonte: OMC Tariffs and imports by product groups Final bound duties MFN applied duties Imports AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free in % in % in % in % in % 37, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

7 Perfil Tarifário - China 7 Tariffs and imports: Summary and duty ranges Summary Total Ag Non-Ag WTO member since 2001 Simple average final bound 10,0 15,7 9,2 Binding coverage: Total 100 Simple average MFN applied ,6 15,6 8,7 Non-Ag 100 Trade w eighted average ,1 8,0 3,8 Ag: Tariff quotas (in %) 4.9 Imports in billion US$ ,3 47,5 866,7 Ag: Special safeguards (in % ) 0 Frequency distribution Duty-free 0 <= 5 5 <= <= <= <= <= 100 > 100 NAV Tariff lines and import values (in %) in % Agricultural products Final bound MFN applied Imports Non-agricultural products Final bound MFN applied Imports Fonte: OMC

8 China 8 Product groups Animal products Dairy products Fruit, vegetables, plants Coffee, tea Cereals & preparations Oilseeds, fats & oils Sugars and confectionery Beverages & tobacco Cotton Other agricultural products Fish & fish products Minerals & metals Petroleum Chemicals Wood, paper, etc. Textiles Clothing Leather, footw ear, etc. Non-electrical machinery Electrical machinery Transport equipment Manufactures, n.e.s. Fonte: OMC Tariffs and imports by product groups Final bound duties MFN applied duties Imports AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free in % in % in % in % in % 14, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

9 Investigações de antidumping ( /2011) 9 Exporting Country Brazil China European Union India South Africa United States Total Brazil C hina European Union India Russian Federation South Africa United States Total Fonte: OMC

10 Medidas antidumping aplicadas ( /2011) 10 Exporting Country Brazil China European Union India South Africa United States Total Brazil C hina European Union India Russian Federation South Africa United States Total Fonte: OMC

11 Investigações de medidas compensatórias ( /2011) 11 Exporting Country Brazil China European Union India South Africa United States Total Brazil 4 7 C hina European Union 1 12 India South Africa United States Total Fonte: OMC

12 Medidas Compensatórias ( /2011) 12 Exporting Country Brazil China European Union South Africa United States Total Brazil 3 8 China European Union 10 India South Africa 2 4 United States Fonte: OMC

13 13 Salvaguardas (29/03/ /04/2012) Reporting Member Brazil China, P.R. European Union* India South Africa United States Totals for 29/03/ /04/2012 Total Total Initiations Measures Fonte: OMC

14 Salvaguardas Transitórias contra a China 14 Country Procedures Products (6digits) Provisional Transitional Safeguards Canada Colombia Dominican Republic ( 1) Ecuador European Union India (9) Peru Poland Taiwan Turkey (1) USA ( 2) Final Transitional Safeguards (Products) Total (13) Fonte: OMC e Banco Mundial

15 Casos - DSB 15 Country Complainant Respondent Third Party Brazil China European Union India South Africa United States Total 438 Fonte: OMC

16 16 China Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio Parceiro comercial Temas regulados RT AG RO MD SU SE PI TBT/SPS IN Novos Temas Chile X X X X X X X Paquistão 1 X X X X X Paquistão 2 X Nova Zelândia X X X X X X X X X Singapura X X X X X X X Peru X X X X X X X X X Costa Rica* X X X X X X SPS

17 17 Características de economia de não mercado Relatório do Banco Mundial: China 2030 Building a Modern, Harmounious and Creative High-Income Society, p. 25 China s transition to a market economy is incomplete in many areas. A mix of market and non-market measures shapes incentives for producers and consumers, and there remains a lack of clarity in distinguishing the individual roles of government state enterprises, and the private sector. It is imperative, therefore that China resolve these issues, accelerate structural reforms and develop a market-based system with sound foundations in which the state focuses on providing key public goods and services while a vigorous private sector plays the more important role of driving growth.

18 Características de economia de não mercado 18 Obrigações na acessão da China à OMC Estado de Direito Criação de regime de revisão judicial e administrativo Aplicação uniforme das regras da OMC Tratamento não-discriminatório de vantagens concedidas pelo governo capital estrangeiro Liberalização do direito de comércio Não influenciar SOEs Subsídios são específicos se voltados para SOEs Preços determinados por forças de mercado Metodologia alternativa em investigações AD Salvaguardas transitórias Mecanismo de revisão anual

19 Empresas estatais SOEs 568, , ,820 Collective-owned enterprises 856, , ,858 FIEs: equity joint ventures 85,932 81,466 79,537 FIEs: contractual joint ventures 13,360 11,992 11,054 FIEs: wholly foreign-owned enterprises 188, , ,497 Domestic private enterprises 6,574,171 7,401,539 8,455,158 Fonte: OMC, Trade Policy Review - China

20 Participação estatal Total (billion) 1, , , Number of tradeable shares , , A shares a , , B shares b Number of non-tradeable shares 1, Number of converted shares c Number of disposal of converted shares d Converted shares as a percentage of non-tradeable shares (%) Disposal of converted shares as a percentage of converted shares (%) Tradeable shares as a percentage of total shares (%) a. A shares are shares issued by joint-stock companies registered in China and listed on the domestic stock exchanges, with face value denominated in RMB, and traded in RMB by domestic companies, institutions, organizations or individuals (excluding investors from Hong Kong, China; Macao, China; and Chinese Taipei). b. B shares are shares issued by joint-stock companies registered in China and listed on the domestic stock exchanges, with face value denominated in RMB, but traded in U.S. dollars on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and in HK dollars on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. c. Converted shares are shares released from originally non-tradeable shares through the conversion programmes. After the conversion programme, the originally non-tradeable shares will become tradeable on the A-share market, but there is a lockup period of 1 to 3 years before those converted shares are actually traded on the market. d. Disposal of converted shares are converted shares actually sold off on the market after the lockup period. Fonte: OMC, Trade Policy Review - China

21 21 Empresas estatais indústrias estratégicas Fonte: Report of the US China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2011

22 22 Empresas estatais - investimentos Investimentos estrangeiros das principais empresas estatais da China Setores: CNPC e Sinopec petróleo; CIC fundo soberano; Chinalco - alumínio Fonte: Report of the US China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2011

23 23 Subsídios Lista de programas de subsídio selecionados, em vigor, do governo central da China Measures currently in force Incentives (1) Measures notified by China in October 2011 Fund for subsidizing the training of rural migrant labour force (a) Assistance to the energy sector and to environmental protection Fund for popularization of agricultural technologies Preferential tax policies for high or new technology enterprises Fund for subsidizing transformation of agricultural technology Preferential tax treatment for public infrastructure projects Subsidy for promoting superior strains and seeds Preferential tax treatment for projects for environmental protection Subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery and tools Preferential tax treatment for building material products Comprehensive subsidies for agricultural inputs Preferential tax policies for Clean Development Mechanism Direct subsidy to farmers (b) Assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises Fund for agricultural comprehensive development Fund for supporting technological innovation Preferential tax treatment for imported products Development fund for SMEs Fund for interest discount of loans Special fund for establishment of service system for SMEs Subsidy for national key constructions on water and soil conservation Fund for international market exploration by SMEs Subsidy for prevention from and control of pest and disease Preferential tax policies for enterprises making little profits Subsidy for grass seed sowing by airplanes (c) Assistance to research and development, support for specific Preferential tax policies for enterprises of grain or oil reserves industries, assistance for industrial development Preferential tax policies for the research and development of Preferential tax policies for the relief grain and disaster relief grain enterprises Preferential tax policies for enterprises transferring technology (2) Information from other official and public sources b Research and development fund for industrial technologies (a) Assistance to the energy sector and to environmental protection Fund for promotion of coordinated development of foreign trade Full Purchase on Electricity Generated by Renewable Energy Subsidy for scrapping old vehicles Price Surcharge of Electricity Generated by Renewable Energy Preferential tax policies for integrated circuit industry Golden Sun Demonstration Project Fund for research and development of integrated circuit industry Demonstration Project of Optoelectronic Application Buildings Fund for development of electrical information industry Energy Regeneration and Utilization of Straws and Stalks Fund for high technology R&D for packaging industry Promotion of high-efficient energy-saving products (d) FDI and regional support (b) Assistance to research and development, support for specific industries, assistance for industrial development Preferential tax policies in the western regions Foreign Trade Development Fund (e) Assistance to agriculture and forestry Promotion of new-energy and energy-saving automobiles Preferential tax policies Domestic appliance to countryside Fund for specialized economic cooperatives of farmers Fonte: OMC, Trade Policy Review - China

24 Subsídios 24 OMC, Trade Policy Review China The use of subsidies and other government assistance appear to be an important feature of China's trade policy making. However, because of the limited information made available to the Secretariat, it is difficult to confirm this. In general, very few details are available on China's subsidies and other government assistance, particularly at the sub-central level, on their type and size, the financial outlays involved, and the objectives of the programmes and their results. (...) In many cases, there are no precise figures on the magnitude of subsidies provided by the government, many of which are in the form of tax benefits.

25 Brasil - Shin Brasil - EG Uruguai - Johansen Brasil - Johansen Reino Unido - Johansen Austrália - EG Turquia - EG Grécia - Johansen Espanha - Johansen Holanda - Johansen Itália - EG Cingapura - Johansen Espanha - Shin Colômbia - Johansen Portugal - Shin Espanha - EG Portugal - EG Dinamarqua - EG Dinamarqua - Shin Portugal - Johansen Suécia - Johansen México-Johansen Alemanha - Johansen Alemanha - Shin Alemanha - EG Turquia - Shin México - EG México - Shin França - Johansen Japão - Johansen Irlanda - Johansen China - Johansen Estados Unidos - Johansen Finlândia - EG Estados Unidos - Shin Estados Unidos - EG Finlândia - Shin Índia - Johansen Colômbia - Shin % em relação ao equilíbrio Desalinhamentos Cambiais 25 60% Desalinhamento cambial estimado - Anos selecionados Metodologias: Análise de Fundamentos - Fundamentos estimados utilizando 3 metodologias: Shin, Engle & Granger e Johansen. 40% 20% 0% -20% % -60% Fonte: CEMAP - FGV

26 Level of misalignment - Deviation from long run equilibrium 26 Desalinhamentos cambiais % 40% 50,3% 40,5% 30% 26,1% 20% 10% 0% 11,6% 6,8% 3,3% 2,0% 0,6% 0,0% 0,0% -0,3% -0,4% -1,5% -6,7% -10% -20% -30% -8,5% -8,9% -11,4% -11,9% -22,0% -25,6% Countries Fonte: CEMAP - FGV

27 Fonte: CEMAP - FGV 27 Desalinhamento da China

28 28 Efeitos do câmbio no mercado brasileiro 60% Tarifas do Brasil - Efeito Valorização Cambial do Brasil 2011 Médias simples a HS 2 dígitos - fonte OMC (2010) 50% Cereais 40% Laticínios Tabaco Farmaceuticos Algodão Aeronaves 30% Tarifas Consolidadas 20% Tarifas Aplicadas 10% 0% -10% Tarifa consolidada ajustada: BR + 40% Tarifa aplicada ajustada: BR + 40% -20% -30% -40% -50%

29 29 Efeitos do câmbio no mercado brasileiro 60% Tarifas do Brasil - Efeito Do Desalinhamento Cambial Brasil + China 2011 Médias simples a HS 2 dígitos 40% Laticínios Cereais Tabaco Farmaceuticos Algodão Aeronaves Tarifas Consolidadas 20% Tarifas Aplicadas 0% Tarifa consolidada ajustada -Efeito BR + CH: 51% -20% Tarifa aplicada ajustada - Efeito BR + CH: 51% -40% -60%

30 Efeitos do câmbio no mercado brasileiro 30 40% Tarifas Aplicadas do Brasil - Evolução do Efeito Brasil + China Médias simples a HS 2 dígitos Vestuário 30% Bebidas alcoólicas Couro Automóveis 20% Laticínios Tarifas Aplicadas 10% 0% -10% -20% Nível tarifário aplicado ajustado 2010 Nível tarifário aplicado ajustado % -40% -50% -60%

31 Conclusões 31 Desafios 1 - China - economia híbrida Regras na OMC para NME :. Art. VI do GATT - Ad Note. Art. XVII do GATT - STE 2 - Temas a discutir. Câmbio e sistema financeiro. Subsídios. SOE