Cities and Climate Change in Brazil Preliminary Study Results. Ming Zhang & Catherine Lynch Latin America and the Caribbean Region World Bank

Transcrição

1 Cities and Climate Change in Brazil Preliminary Study Results Ming Zhang & Catherine Lynch Latin America and the Caribbean Region World Bank

2 Brazilian Cities and Climate Change Urban development in Brazil: key programs and opportunities GHG emissions Vulnerability Actions by Brazilian cities Institutions Financing Conclusions

3 Brazil 2010: The Largest Urban Upgrading Program in the World Guarapiranga São Paulo/SP Complexo do Alemão Rio de Janeiro/RJ

4 Manaus Natal Fortaleza Recife São Paulo 2014: World Cup Rio de Janeiro Cuiabá Belo Horizonte Brasilia Porto Alegre Curitiba Salvador

5 2016: Olympics

6 Brazilian Cities: Taking Global Leadership on Climate Change São Paulo: state and municipal CC legislation Ambitious GHG reduction targets Integrated approach

7 GHG Emissions in Brazil (2008) Principalmente da Área Urbana Fonte: Estudo do case sobre Brasil Baixo Carbono (Banco Mundial 2009)

8 GHG Emissions in Cities Transport Traffic management systems Transportation of Waste Biogas-toenergy Waste Emission source: (+) Transport (+) Solid Waste (+) Energy usage (+) Water Pedestrian comfort Energy Sludge treatment Emission sink: (-) Urban Forestry Heat island effect Efficient water pumping Urban Forestry Grey water reuse Water Mathematically, it should be possible for a city to be carbon neutral by creating sufficient green areas

9 The dominance of deforestation marks the fact... (GHG growth including dorestation) BRAZIL Fonte: CAIT, World Resources Institute

10 ...that some emissions are growing rapidly (GHG Growth Excluding LULUCF) BRAZIL Fonte: CAIT, World Resources Institute

11 ... Especially energy, transport and waste (GHG growth by sector since 1990) Energy growth includes: 22% electricity 28% manufacturing & construction 40% transport ENERGY INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE WASTE DEFORESTATION

12 Per capita emissions in Brazilian cities are low Per capita GHG Emissões in selected cities (ton of CO2e) Fonte: Kennedy, C.A., Ramaswami, A., Carney, S., and Dhakal, S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions (2009). Nota: Belo Horizonte foi adicionado usando dados de seu inventario de 2009.

13 Wastes represent a larger share of GHG in Brazil than other global cities Source of GHG emissions by selected municipalities in Brazil and medium of global cities 100% 4% 26% 18% 80% 41% 60% 40% WASTE AFOLU INDUSTRY ENERGY 20% 0% Global cities medium Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Belo Horizonte Fonte: Kennedy, C.A., Ramaswami, A., Carney, S., and Dhakal, S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions (2009). Nota: Belo Horizonte foi adicionado usando dados de seu inventario de 2009.

14 Fonte: ABRELPE (2005) Generation of urban solid waste in Brazil (1,000 tons/day & % collected)

15 Demand for electricity is also increasing Hydro power makes up 3/4 of installed generation capacity, and ethonol substitutes make up 2/5 of gasoline However, increase of electricity supply from renewable energy sources will be challenging, and can result in use of carbon based sources to satisfy demand As families get richer, housing unit size tends to be larger and they use more appliances In 2000, only 37% of Brazilian families had washing machines, 9% had air conditions, 22% had microwaves, e 12% owned personal computers

16 Tendency toward sprawl in growing urban agglemerations Crescimento Anual da População Maringa Sao Paulo Recife Belo Horizonte Belem Santos Salvador Porto Alegre Rio de Janeiro Criciúma Fortaleza Curitiba Indice de Sprawl (2000) Ipatinga Itajai Brasilia Londrina Florianopolis Joinville Blumenau Caixas do Sul Fonte: Adaptado do Ojima, R. and D. Hogan (2007)

17 And the impacts of climate change? Projection of climate modeling by CPTEC/INPE Impacts include flooding (intensive rains plus rising sea level), droughts and temperature rise

18 Rio de Janeiro: Low Attitude Areas

19 Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Rains and Storms

20 Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Rains and Storms

21 Brazilian cities are acting... Formation of municipal inter-sectoral special commissions Various cities have concluded GHG inventories, establishing targets and taking measures to reduce emissions Few have assessed vulnerabilities But in general there is lack of focus on adaptation in other cities in the world

22 Emerging Four Phases of Actions by Brazilian Cities on Climate Change FASE GHG Emission Inventory Emission Reduction Targets Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change Action Plans CIDADES COMPONENTES Setor Transporte Resíduos Energia Agricultura LULUCF Limites Municipalidade Área Metropolitana Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Belo Horizonte Betim Porto Alegre Goiânia Volta Redonda Palmas Curitiba Low carbon scenarios Cost-benefit analysis Co-benefit analysis Law Decision whether reduction is a priority Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Betim (ate2010) Impacts Flooding Sea level rise Temperature Drought Vulnerability Infrastructure Ativos Social Public health Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Investimentos Cronograma Políticas Atores e responsabilidades

23 6 key sectors where local government can have a catalystic role in emission reduction Setor Selected Possible Actions Brazilian Examples Transport Land use Enhance the efficiency and coverage of public transport Restriction of private auto use Promover bairros de usos mistos e alta densidade Land tax differentiated according to use BRT in Curitiba Bairro Noroeste in Brasilia Ecological property tax Urban Operations Energy Efficiency Public building efficiency standards Public lighting conversion in Belo Horizonte Renewable Energy Waste Management Solar public lighting Solar water heating Use of biodiesel in public transport Waste recycling program Methane gas capture Biodiesel Program of Belo Horizonte Solar energy use under MCMV São Paulo solar energy law São João & Bandeirantes Landfill in São Paulo Urban Greening Programs to plan trees and vegetation Rio Capital Verde

24 Planned City: Brasilia

25 Planned City: Brasilia

26 Planned City: Curitiba

27 Planned City: Curitiba

28 Planned City: Curitiba

29 New Green Line

30 Recycling

31 Another Recycling

32 Less Concrete and Cement

33 Parks: Environment, Recreation and Flood Prevention ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICIPIO PARQUE BARIGUI TRECHO 1 PARQUE TANGUÁ IMPLANTAR VIA PARQUE AO LONGO DO RIO BARIGUI CONVENÇÕES RIO BARIGUI VIA PARQUE CICLOVIA ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO 33

34 Parks: Environment, Recreation and Flood Prevention ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICIPIO PARQUE BARIGUI TRECHO 1 PARQUE TINGUI CONVENÇÕES PARQUE TINGUÍ RIO BARIGUI VIA PARQUE CICLOVIA ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES 34 LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO

35 Parks: Environment, Recreation and Flood Prevention ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICÍPIO PARQUE BARIGUI TRECHO 1 CONVENÇÕES RIO BARIGUI VIA PARQUE CICLOVIA ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO IMPLANTAR VIA PARQUE 35

36 Sao Paulo State & Municipality: Climate Change Targets Written into Laws State State Law on Climate Change (October 2009): Target to reduce GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 Establish inventory Sustainable transport Aggressive expansion of public transport system Green procurement Reforestation Adaptation Vehicle pollution control Economic and ecological zoning Municipality Municipal Law on Climate Change (June 2009): Target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2012 Landfills Gas to Energy Projects Tree Planting (Greener São Paulo Project) Bike lane construction Law on water heating systems thru solar energy Mandatory vehicle inspection for air pollution control Legal wood program City bus fleet to renewable energy

37 São Paulo: Bandeirantes and São Jõao Landfills Reduced 20% GHG emitted in the city Generate enough energy to supply 600,000 people Account for 59% of all CER s issued in the world related to landfill projects Carbon credit auction: 25 million

38 BETIM - MG Solar Heating in Low Income Areas

39 Institutional arrangement Brazil has a range of institutional mechanisms to implement climate-related policies at all levels of government. need to better define the best federative level for specific types of actions Need for inter-sectoral coordination within the municipal government For climate change, collaboration at the level of metropolitan region is extremely important

40 Financing Additional investment costs for mitigation measures in the transport is US$146 B, and in waste sectors is US$87 B until 2030 US$189/ ton of mitigation in urban transport US$50/ ton of mitigation in waste Adaptation costs vary greatly Mexico City plan: US$250 million for

41 Conclusions 1. Need to focus on climate change impacts and adaptation 2. Need for resources for planning and capacity building 3. Mitigation from waste is a lower cost opportunity and high priority in the short term, but transport and urban planning can have huge impact over the long term and offer multiple co-benefits 4. Opportunities to act now and create a sustainable future