Biofuel Carbon Capture & Storage, the Brazilian experience

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2 Biofuel Carbon Capture & Storage, the Brazilian experience Plinio Nastari DATAGRO FAPESP-NERC WORKSHOP ON SUSTAINABLE GAS FUTURE February, 25 th 2015 FAPESP - Rua Pio XI, 1500 Alto da Lapa São Paulo Brazil

3 Energy Consumption Transport Sector 2013 in Brazil Energy Consumption - Transport Sector Source million tep % Diesel 38, % Biodiesel 2, % Gasoline (pure) 24, % Ethanol 11, % Anhydrous 5, % Hydrous 6, % Kerosene 3, % Fuel Oil % Electricity % CNG 1, % Others % Total 83, % Source: BEN/MME 3

4 ETHANOL SHARE IN OTTO CYCLE FUEL DEMAND 50% (in gasoline equivalent) 45% 44.3% 44.7% 45.4% 44.6% 40% 35% 38.9% 41.8% 37.0% 39.2% 38.1% 37.7% 37.3% 40.2% 39.7% 39.4% 35.2% 40.7% 37.1% 36.2% 33.7% 30% 31.8% Source: DATAGRO 25% 4

5 Photosynthesis Generates plants used as sources of biomass: Cane African palm Eucaliptus Soybeans Cassava Pinus Castor Palm Other species Conversion Ethanol Biodiesel Methanol Charcoal Hydrogen Biogas/biomethane 5

6 Ethanol Avoided Emissions Avoided emissions (kg CO2 eq/liter) Source Industry Best Average practices Anhydrous ethanol Hydrous ethanol Base case Gasoline (pure) Source: Macedo et al. (2004). 6

7 Biodiesel Avoided Emissions Avoided emissions (kg CO2 eq/liter) Source Industry Average Biodiesel (B100) Palm Soy Castor Fossil Diesel Source: EPE (2005). 7

8 Million tons of TRS equivalent Brazilian Supply of Sugar+Ethanol (in TRS equivalent): with intense growth period 90,0 75,0 60,0 Sugar Anhydrous Hydrous 14/15e CS+N/NE 31.3% 45,0 25.1% 30,0 15,0 43.6% - Source: DATAGRO Note: TRS is Total Reducing Sugars, a common denominator for sugar and ethanol.

9 SIZE OF THE DOMESTIC FLEET (OTTO CYCLE) MIllion units Flex-Fuel Vehicle Fleet Vehicle Fleet by Type of Fuel (2014) Ethanol 2.23% Gasoline 30.77% Flex Fuel 67.00% Source: DATAGRO Source: DATAGRO Flex cars were responsible for 67.0% of total light vehicle fleet. This proportion is rising every year: 2013: 63.12% 2012: 58.02% 2011: 52.07% 9

10 million tons Brazil: production of sugar has fallen since ,0 38,0 38,0 38,2 37,6 36,0 35,9 35,5 34,0 32,9 32,0 30,0 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e Source: Elaborated by DATAGRO, from data obtained with Sindicates of Producers.

11 billion liters Brazil: a new record production of ethanol 30,0 achieved in 2014/15 28,0 27,4 27,5 28,2 26,0 25,7 24,0 22,0 22,6 23,2 20,0 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e Source: Elaborated by DATAGRO, from data obtained with Sindicates of Producers.

12 Ethanol Production in Brazil (000 m3) 30,000.0 Anhydrous ethanol Hydrous ethanol 25, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e Source: DATAGRO. 12

13 A large shift in production mix since 2012/13 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% 12/13 14/ % 31.3% 21.8% 25.1% 50.3% 43.6% Sugar Anhydrous Hydrous Fonte: DATAGRO

14 Billion liters/month Consumption as Fuel (Gasoline, Anhydrous & Hydrous Ethanol, in billion liters/mo) Gasoline A (pure) Anhydrous Hydrous Ethanol Total Source: DATAGRO. 14

15 Biodiesel Production in Brazil (million liters) 4,000 3,500 3,414 3,000 2,500 2,386 2,673 2,717 2,917 2,000 1,500 1,608 1, Source: ANP/MME. 15

16 Avoided Emissions from Biofuels (used as fuel only) in Brazil Source Industry Best Industry Average practices Average Best practices (kg CO2 eq/liter) (2014 total in 000 tons CO2 eq) Anhydrous ethanol , , Hydrous ethanol , , Biodiesel (soy) Biofuels total , , Source: DATAGRO. Avoided Emissions 16

17 Total Volume of Ethanol Used as Fuel ( ) in Gasoline Equivalent (in million liters) 25,000 20,000 Anhydrous Hydrous Total Ethanol in Gasoline equivalent Total (bi liters) , , , Source: Datagro

18 Avoided Emissions from Biofuels used as fuel (only) since 1975 Avoided Emissions - Industry Average Source (kg CO2 eq/liter) Since 1975, in 000 tons CO2 eq. Anhydrous ethanol , Hydrous ethanol , Biodiesel (soy) Biofuels total , , Source: DATAGRO. 18

19 Ethanol substituted between billion barrels of gasoline Proved reserves of oil & condensates (including Pre-Salt) in 2014: billion barrels (SEC),or billion barrels (SPE/WPC). Between 1975 & 2014, volume de gasoline substituted by ethanol: 2.41 billion barrels At current pace, every year another 127 million barrels are substituted without the need of new investments because it is renewable!

20 Hard currency savings Between 1975 & 2014, substituted gasoline valued at its world price enabled savings of US$ billion, without considering the cost of foregone debt, or US$ billion, considering the cost of foregone debt (estimated at Prime Rate base pts). Source: DATAGRO Brazil s foreign reserves (January/2015): US$ billion.

21 Additional Potential Brazil has great potential for large scale biogas & biomethane use using organic residues from agrindustrial activity and urban waste. Large potential for substitution of fossil diesel (biomethane) and power (biogas) in distributed generation. 21

22 Biomethane, Renewable Substitute to Diesel Substituição de Diesel a partir do Resíduo de Cana Produção descentralizada 43% da área total do território brasileiro; 81% da população brasileira; e As principais capitais brasileiras estão a menos de 200km de uma usina sucroenergética. Eficiência logística Redução das importações Possibilidade de aumentar em U$ 6,1 bilhões o saldo positivo da Balança Comercial, ao substituir o diesel importado por biometano renovável. Desenvolvimento das regiões rurais Possibilidade de gerar aproximadamente 25 empregos diretos por usina em áreas rurais. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS 22

23 45, 0 40, 0 35, 0 30, 0 25, 0 20, 0 15, 0 10, 0 5,0 0,0 200,0% 180,0% 160,0% 140,0% 120,0% 100,0% 80, 0% 60, 0% 40, 0% 20, 0% 0,0 % Independence in diesel imports O biometano pode garantir a independência da importação de diesel do Brasil. Usinas e Consumo de diesel no Brasil mil L Potencial GEO Energética 100% Palha Capacidade de geração de: 100% Vinhaça 100% Torta 100% Bagaço Diesel equiv. 35 bi de L Organofértil 94 mm ton Consumo de diesel (bi de L) e Potencial de Substituição (%) 157,8% 34,4 39,1 41,7 22,2 101,8% 89,6% 83,9% 50 Km 100 km 150 km 200 km Raio das usinas A produção de biometano é capaz de zerar toda a importação de diesel brasileira e reduzir a dependência energética de um produto fóssil A produção de adubo orgânico equivale a 9 vezes o consumo brasileiro de fertilizante químico e a 4,5 vezes o total de volume importado 23

24 Organic Residues Substituição de Diesel a partir de Resíduos Animais Complementariedade com o modelo de cana As terras destinadas às plantações de cana e à pecuária não ficam localizadas na mesma região garantindo assim uma melhor distribuição pelo território nacional. Alta produtividade na biodigestão Comparado à biodigestão de cana, os resíduos animais apresentaram um produtividade 35% maior. Solução para o problema de resíduos Diferentemente do mercado sucroenergético, os resíduos animais são considerados um problema. A biodigestão é uma solução operacional e economicamente interessante para o mercado

25 PLANTING DATA HARVESTING SOLUTIONS FUTURE EVENTS CALENDAR 13 May 2015 (New York Sugar Dinner) 9 th ISO DATAGRO New York Sugar & Ethanol Conference Waldorf=Astoria Hotel, New York 10 July th Sugar & Ethanol Summit Brazil Day IoD Institute of Directors, London 25 August th DATAGRO Ceise Br Fenasucro Conference Sertaozinho, Brazil September 2015 (Sao Paulo Sugar Dinner) 15 th DATAGRO International Conference on Sugar & Ethanol Grand Hyatt São Paulo, Brazil 25

26 PLANTING DATA HARVESTING SOLUTIONS