PERSPECTIVAS MACROECONÔMICAS E OS IMPACTOS NAS ALOCAÇÕES DAS EFPCs

PERSPECTIVAS MACROECONÔMICAS E OS IMPACTOS NAS ALOCAÇÕES DAS EFPCs

Brazil: Large growth underperformance, but not FX underperformance 13Q1 13Q1 13Q1 13Q1 14Q1 14Q1 14Q1 14Q1 15Q1 15Q1 15Q1 15Q1 16Q1 16Q1 16Q1 16Q1 jan-13 abr-13 jul-13 out-13 jan-14 abr-14 jul-14 out-14 jan-15 abr-15 jul-15 out-15 jan-16 abr-16 jul-16 out-16 120 Real GDP index; 1Q13=100 Turkey 110 Real effective exchange rate (jan 2013=100) 115 105 Colombia 100 110 105 100 95 90 Australia Chile South Africa Russia Brazil 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 CLP BRL ZAR AUD TRY MXN COP RUB Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

Brazil: Social security reform necessary to achieve the ceiling on expenditures Source: Minstério da Fazenda, as of March 2017.

Brazil: Debt dynamics requires fiscal adjustments: higher taxes or reforms Tax Burden and Primary balance (%GDP) 6,0% 36% Tax burden 90 5,0% 34% 85 4,0% 80 32% 3,0% 75 Debt dynamics after the Reform 2% growth 3% growth 2,0% 30% 70 1,0% 0,0% 28% 26% 65 60 55-1,0% -2,0% Primary balance 24% 50 45-3,0% 22% 40 Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

jan-98 Brazil: Fiscal tightening, unemployment rate and net exports are key drags dez-98 nov-99 out-00 set-01 ago-02 jul-03 jun-04 mai-05 abr-06 mar-07 fev-08 jan-09 dez-09 nov-10 out-11 set-12 ago-13 jul-14 jun-15 mai-16 1T95 2010 - I 2T96 2010 - III 3T97 4T98 2011 - I 1T00 2011 - III 2T01 2012 - I 3T02 2012 - III 4T03 2013 - I 1T05 2013 - III 2T06 2014 - I 3T07 2014 - III 4T08 2015 - I 1T10 2015 - III 2T11 3T12 2016 - I 4T13 2016 - III 1T15 2017 - I 2T16 2017 - III 3T17 Central gov revenues & expenses (oya %) Unemployment rate 14 20 12 15 10 10 8 6 4 5 0-5 Expenditures Revenues -10 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% Brazil: net exports contribution to GDP (oya) Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

Brazil: Rebound in terms of trade sustaining large trade surplus in 2017 jan/95 jan/08 mai/96 ago/08 set/97 mar/09 jan/99 out/09 mai/00 mai/10 set/01 dez/10 jan/03 jul/11 mai/04 fev/12 set/05 set/12 jan/07 abr/13 mai/08 nov/13 set/09 jun/14 jan/11 jan/15 mai/12 ago/15 set/13 mar/16 jan/15 out/16 mai/16 Brazil trade balance (US mn) Brazil: terms of trade 63000 53000 43000 33000 3m seasonally adjusted 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 23000 13000 3000-7000 -17000-27000 12 months sum 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Brazil: quantum (index) imported & exported Import volume exports volume Manuf export volume Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

US$ million Brazil: trade surplus falling in volumes, but visible results only in 2018 60000 50000 40000 Trade surplus - 12 months sum (current prices and at fixed prices) current prices 13% 8% Domestic demand growth and import volume change (oya) Import volume 40% 30% 20% 30000 20000 10000 0 3% -2% 10% 0% -10% -10000-20000 fixed -7% -20% -30% -30000-40000 -12% Domestic demand -40% Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

Current account deficit (CAD) to remain low in 2017and surge in 2018 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2018* 2 Brazil- current account balance (% of GDP) High trade surplus (close to US$ 60bn) should contain current account surplus (CAD) close to 1% of GDP in 2017 1 0-1 But with flat terms of trade (ToT), and growth of 3% in 2018, CAD should increase to 3% of GDP If ToT gains of late is lost (converted back to average) in 2018, CAD should approaches 4% of GDP -2-3 -4-5 2018 with reversal in ToT to average Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

jan-89 ago-90 mar-92 out-93 mai-95 dez-96 jul-98 fev-00 set-01 abr-03 nov-04 jun-06 jan-08 ago-09 mar-11 out-12 mai-14 dez-15 jan/10 jun/10 nov/10 abr/11 set/11 fev/12 jul/12 dez/12 mai/13 out/13 mar/14 ago/14 jan/15 jun/15 nov/15 abr/16 set/16 REER, ULC and relative price adjustment 5 0 Brazil: FDI breakdown 4,5 4 Historical average REER 20 40 60 120 000 100 000 3,5 80 100 80 000 60 000 Profits reinvested Intercompany loans 3 120 140 40 000 2,5 2 Unit Labor Cost (inverted scale) 160 180 20 000 - Equity FDI Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

jan/11 jun/11 nov/11 abr/12 set/12 fev/13 jul/13 dez/13 mai/14 out/14 mar/15 ago/15 jan/16 jun/16 nov/16 abr/17 Brazil: low inflation is the silver line IPCA : healine and core (% oya) Inflation breakdown (% oya) 12 20 11 10 Headline 15 Non-durables 9 Regulated 8 7 10 6 5 4 Core 5 Services Regulated 3 Durables 2 jan abr jul 14 14 14 out 14 jan abr jul 15 15 15 out 15 jan abr jul 16 16 16 out 16 jan abr jul 17 17 17 out 17 jan abr jul out 18 18 18 18 0-5 Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

Brazil: market already priced 100bps cut in May, but premium in the belly is decent 0,4% 1,0% 0,2% 0,5% 6,5 5,5 5y real yield 0,0% 0,0% 4,5-0,2% -0,5% 3,5 2,5-0,4% 29- May -1,0% 1,5 0,5-0,6% -1,5% -0,5-0,8% -2,0% -1,5-2,5-1,0% -2,5% -3,5-1,2% -3,0% Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

Real yield is still high (a hurdle to investments) while BEs are at the BCB s target Source: JPMorgan Asset Management e Bloomberg, as of May 2017.

Global growth will continue above trend, with less dispersion

Domestically generated inflation remains subdued outside the US

Fiscal Policy to be a substantial growth impetus, but mostly next year

US growth: upside and downside risks

Upside risks to US inflation

Federal Reserve action

Widening interest differentials could still give the USD a further substantial boost

Global monetary policy remains very accommodative despite less slack

Macro Themes translated into US Rates Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, as of May 2017.

China: many structural reforms remain pending SOE s Debt Service Ability Remain Stretched China Macro Risk Factors Risk(3-6M) Risk(9-12M) 1) Interbank Funding Stress Intense scrutiny 2) Defaults escalate Defaults still in play Trending better 3) Asset Bubbles balloon Clamping down 4) Fed hikes aggressively GFICC view 5) Inflation picks up 6) Banking sector recap High shadow banking exposure in smaller banks; policy tightening with focus on preventing asset bubbles Restraining property bubble with policy tightening focused on Tier 1 cities: ASP (average sales price) growth Feb 17 vs 16 RMB/m 2 Source: DB, PBOC, MS, Citi, JPMAM. As of March 2017.

China: CNY depreciation risks rising. However, not a Q2 story given political desire and capacity to maintain a broad stable currency in the short-term

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OBRIGADO! Julio Callegari