1 Jornadas de Física por ocasião da jubilação do Professor Rui Namorado Rosa Edited by A. M. Silva, A. H. Reis, A. Fitas, J. Figueiredo, B. Caldeira and M. Bezzeghoud University of Évora, June 2010
2 Universidade de Évora R. Romão Ramalho, Évora, Portugal ISBN: Depó sito Legal: /10
3 Contents Foreward 7 Acknowledgments 9 Essay in honour of Rui Namorado Rosa. From science to innovation. 11 J. Caraça Energia nuclear e paz mundial. 21 F.G. Carvalho Alternativas racionais no pensamento de Rui N. Rosa. 31 E. Chitas The peak of peaks or the peak peak. 43 J. Laherrère Renewable Energies in the Iberian Peninsula. Future Scenarios. 75 F. Cuadros Blázquez Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development. 99 M. Collares Pereira A Significant Break in Tradition: the Election of the First Woman to the Sciences Section of the Lisbon Academy of Sciences. A.M.N. dos Santos 121 Leibniz, Newton, os irmãos Bernoulli e o problema das causas finais. 131 A. Fitas Práticas comemorativas práticas científicas: o ciclo de 1937, em Lisboa. 149 M.F. Nunes Energia, natureza e sociedade nos textos de Lavoisier. 163 M. Valente La réception française de la mécanique statistique. 173 J.P. Príncipe O Universo Invisível 189 Jorge Dias de Deus
4 The study of aerosols and other atmospheric constituents at Évora University: start 197 and development since A.M. Silva, M.J Costa, F. Wagner, D. Bortoli, S. Pereira, D. Santos, T. Elias, P. Formenti, N. Belo, L. Bugalho, R. Salgado, P. Lúcio, A. Ramos, J. Preiβler, J. Guerrero-Rascado, H. Prasad, P. Kulkarni, A. Domingues, M. Melgão, M. Potes, V. Salgueir, R. N. Rosa Probing the Sun's interior: Neutrino Spectroscopy and Helioseismolgy I. Lopes Electric properties of granitic rocks. 223 H.G. Silva, M. Tlemçani, A. Albino, M. Bezzeghoud, R. N. Rosa, B. Caldeira & J.F. Borges Heat transfer in the thermal entry region of single-connected tubes with uniform wall temperature. P. Canhoto & H. Reis 231 Ductile fracture: nonlocal modelling. 241 P. Areias A New Solar Tracker Approach. 263 J.M.G. Figueiredo The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile: a preliminary view. 275 R. Madariaga, Ch. Vigny, M. Lancieri, S Ruiz, M. Métois, A Socquet, A Fuenzalida, E. Buforn & J Campos Seismicity and Ground Motion Simulations of the SW Iberia Margin. 291 M. Bezzeghoud, J.F. Borges & B. Caldeira Influence of urban landscapes on weather. 311 M.G.D. Carraça & C. Collier Analysis of the atmospheric electric field of Lisbon in the period C. Serrano & A. H. Reis Construction of a High Quality Database of Solar Irradiance Data for Évora, Portugal. F. Wagner, J.P. Bras Almeida, C. Mougeiro, J. Piteu & I. Malico 337 Acerca do fluxo de calor proveniente do interior da Terra. 351 M.R. Duque
5 Conference speakers R. N. Rosa Última lição J. Caraça* Essay in honour of Rui Namorado Rosa. From science to innovation. F.G. Carvalho* Energia nuclear e paz mundial. E. Chitas* Alternativas racionais no pensamento de Rui N. Rosa. J. Laherrère* The peak of peaks or the peak peak. F. Cuadros Blázquez* Renewable Energies in the Iberian Peninsula. Future Scenarios. M. Collares Pereira* Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development. A.M.N. dos Santos* A Significant Break in Tradition: the Election of the First Woman to the Sciences Section of the Lisbon Academy of Sciences. A. Fitas Leibniz, Newton, os irmãos Bernoulli e o problema das causas finais. M.F. Nunes Práticas comemorativas práticas científicas: o ciclo de 1937, em Lisboa. M. Valente Energia, natureza e sociedade nos textos de Lavoisier. J.P. Príncipe La réception française de la mécanique statistique. J. D. de Deus* O Universo invisível. A.M. Silva The study of aerosols and other atmospheric constituents at Évora University: start and development since I. Lopes Probing the Sun's interior: Neutrino Spectroscopy and Helioseismolgy. H.G. Silva Electric properties of granitic rocks. P. Canhoto Heat transfer in the thermal entry region of single connected tubes with uniform wall temperature. R. Madariaga* The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile: a preliminary view. M. Bezzeghoud Seismicity and Ground Motion Simulations of the SW Iberia Margin. R. Salgado Os lagos, a previsão do tempo e o clima. M.R. Duque Acerca do fluxo de calor proveniente do interior da Terra. * Invited speakers
7 7 Prefácio Este livro é uma homenagem ao Professor Rui Manuel Vassalo Namorado Rosa no final da sua carreira como distinto professor de Física da Universidade de Évora. Embora a actividade principal do Professor Rui Rosa se tenha centrado na investigação e nas actividades académicas, em particular como Vice-Reitor e Presidente do Conselho Científico da Universidade de Évora, o seu rico curriculum vitae engloba muitas outras actividades que incluem intervenções sociais e de cidadania, de divulgação científica e participações em debates de importância internacional. A sua reconhecida simpatia e disponibilidade granjearam-lhe muitos amigos que sempre beneficiaram dos seus sábios conselhos, pontos de vista abrangentes, mente aberta, e opiniões bem fundamentadas. O seu trabalho e o compromisso com a Universidade de Évora muito contribuíram para o desenvolvimento da investigação e do ensino, e para a internacionalização de diferentes áreas desta Universidade. É por tudo isto que o Professor Rui Rosa, que actua e se considera a si próprio como um homem comum, tem o respeito e a estima de muitas pessoas e recebe agora a merecida homenagem com que a Academia decidiu comemorar a sua jubilação. O Professor Rui Rosa licenciou-se em Física e Química na Universidade de Lisboa (1961) e obteve seu doutoramento em Física de Plasma na Universidade de Oxford (1969). De 1961 a 1983 fez investigação no Laboratório de Física e Engenharia Nuclear (LFEN / LNETI) em Lisboa. Desde 1983 a Junho de 2010 foi Professor Catedrático de Física da Universidade de Évora. A sua lista de publicações é diversificada e inclui trabalhos sobre física dos plasmas, fontes de energia convencionais e renováveis, e tecnologias associadas, para além de trabalhos recentes sobre a política energética, a que se juntam ensaios sobre os impactos educacionais e sociais da ciência e da tecnologia. Este livro inclui três ensaios sobre os aspectos organizacionais da ciência, energia nuclear, e pensamento racional, juntamente com os artigos dos autores que participaram no Workshop Jornadas de Física", realizado na Universidade de Évora, em 15 e 16 de Junho de 2010, como parte da celebração da jubilação do Professor Rui Rosa. Os Editores Ana Maria Silva António Heitor Reis Augusto Fitas Bento Caldeira João Figueiredo Mourad Bezzeghoud
8 8 Foreword This book is a tribute to Professor Rui Manuel Vassalo Namorado Rosa at the end of his career as a distinguished Professor of Physics of the University of Évora. Although Professor Rui Rosa s main work has focused on research and academic activities, in particular as Vice-Rector and Chairman of the Scientific Council of the University of Évora, his rich curriculum vitae encompasses many other activities ranging from social interventions and citizenship, science communication, and participation in debates of international significance. His ever recognized friendliness and helpfulness granted him many friends that have beneficiated much from his wise advice, farsighted views, open-minded judgment, and well-based opinions. His work and commitment with the University of Évora has much contributed to research, teaching development, and internationalization of different fields of this University. This is why Professor Rui Rosa, who acts and considers himself as an ordinary man, got the respect and esteem of so many people and deserved the tribute that the Academia has decided to celebrate his retirement. Professor Rui Rosa graduated in Physics and Chemistry in the University of Lisbon (1961), got his PhD in Plasma Physics from the University of Oxford (1969). From 1961 to 1983 he did research at the Physics and Nuclear Engineering Laboratory (LFEN/LNETI) in Lisbon. Since 1983 to June 2010 he was Full Professor of Physics at the University of Évora. His diversified publication list includes the early works on plasma physics, works on conventional energy and renewable energy resources and technologies, as well as recent works on energy policy, together with essays on the educational and social impacts of science and technology. This book includes three essays, namely on the organizational aspects of science, nuclear energy, and rational thinking, together with the contributed papers by the authors that participated in the workshop Jornadas de Física held at the University of Évora, on th June 2010, as a part of the celebration of Professor Rui Rosa s retirement. The Editors Ana Maria Silva António Heitor Reis Augusto Fitas Bento Caldeira João Figueiredo Mourad Bezzeghoud
9 9 Agradecimentos A Comissão Organizadora das Jornadas de Física por ocasião da jubilação do Professor Rui Namorado Rosa agradece a todos os que contribuíram aos mais diversos níveis para o seu sucesso e, em particular aos oradores convidados que se deslocaram a Évora, bem como a todos os colegas que submeteram os seus ensaios e artigos científicos. Reconhecimento é igualmente devido ao Reitor da Universidade de Évora, ao Director e ao Presidente do Conselho Científico da Escola de Ciência e Tecnologia pela associação a este evento e pelas facilidades proporcionadas. À Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia pelo apoio material que concedeu para publicação do livro de Actas. Acknowledgments The Organizing Committee of the Workshop Jornadas de Física on the occasion of Prof Rui Namorado Rosa Jubilation would like to express its gratitude to all that have contributed to its success and in particular to the Invited Speakers who have sent their contributed papers to this Workshop. The Organizing Committee wants also to express its gratitude to the Chancellor of the University of Évora, to the Director and President of the Scientific Council of the Scholl of Sciences and Technology of the University, who have accept to joint this celebration and given the necessary support. Finally we would like to thank FCT for the funding given for the edition of the Workshop Proceedings. A Comissão Organizadora Ana Maria Silva (UE) António Heitor Reis (UE) António Manuel Nunes dos Santos (FCNT-UNL) Augusto José dos Santos Fitas (UE) Bento António Caldeira (UE) Frederico da Gama Carvalho (ITN) João Figueiredo (UE) João Sousa Lopes (FC-UL) Manuel Collares Pereira (LNEG/IST-UTL) Mourad Bezzeghoud (UE)
11 11 Essay in honour of Rui Namorado Rosa From science to innovation Joao Caraça Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian 1. Introduction Should the beginnings of the 21 st century seem very different from those of the 20 th? Yes and no, for sure. We are not perfect copies of our ancestors; population has grown considerably around the planet --- four times all over; and our conceptions of nature and of ourselves have evolved considerably. And yet, in spite of all these changes, as it happened a hundred years ago, when numerous discoveries of new natural phenomena and of mysterious X-rays, added to cognitive ruptures in philosophy, literature, painting, medicine, engineering and the end of the old regime, we see a similar renewal of superstition and belief in the occult. Today, we witness complexity, climate change, water and energy concerns, a new understanding of cells and proteins, we are attempting at the disclosure of the most inner secrets of the brain and of consciousness, we experience globalization; but we suffer from social exclusion and new diseases, with new forms of communication spreading over the globe. Increased specialization and advanced training have turned the most rational human being in his (or her) area of expertise into a weak and unprotected individual, prone to emotions and vulnerable to obscurantist thoughts, eager to run after any illusion which claims to bring a seed of hope. After a full century of extraordinary scientific and technological progress, this seems very disconcerting. Two main factors are driving human evolution: (i) people; and (ii) their talents, or cognitive abilities, taken in the French sense of savoirs. Given the time horizon of the present exercise, demography is not the main source of incertitude. What about knowledge production and diffusion, in particular, technology?
12 12 João Caraça We know industrialization set a pace of definite structural continuities and transitions, which where labeled techno-economic paradigm changes. From early mechanization based on hydraulic power, successive transformations followed, which were characterized by the power of steam, by electrification, and by motorization based on cheap oil. Since the 1980 s we seem to be living in an era of computerization of the entire economy; non-specialists call it globalisation and see it coupled to the emergence of the information society. Until the 2020 s we will continue to perform and operate in this global framework of economic activities. What are the drifts, problems or discontinuities looming in the near future? To understand what the main issues are, we must recall that in the course of the 20 th century the mechanisms of technological creation were drastically transformed, and enhanced. Science nowadays is the source of powerful technologies. 2. Science and technology The emergence of industries of high technological intensity in the second half of the 20 th century, such as nuclear power, aerospace, semiconductors and computers, and more recently the pharmaceutical and biotechnological ones, reveals the critical importance of science applications in the societies of the industrialized world. Business and societal practices now strongly depend on new ideas which have an origin intimately related to the scientific effort, i.e., that do not derive from natural language nor common knowledge. This procedural change was not straightforward; it implied a thorough transformation and a deep institutional reorganization in the societies that assumed it. The world, today, would not be possible without its products: airplanes, missiles, satellites, space vehicles, computers, lasers, antennas, electronic networks, genetically modified products In turn, the products of these sectors diffused to enable the deployment of a full package of new and highly comprehensive services. The instrumental conception of the scientific endeavour --- the generation of wealth and economic development through science-based technology, gave way in the last decade of the 20 th century to a more nuanced (or complex) notion of the embeddeness of scientific activities in the social context in which they are conducted. Therefore, the very nature of research policies changed, in order to accommodate more diffusionoriented goals, stressing the mechanisms of knowledge circulation and
13 From science to innovation 13 transmission, of technology management and exploitation, of science awareness and public engagement in science. This change has also been motivated by the questioning of the character of public intervention in the economy, namely the role of central government in the conduction of operations too close to the market. Public policy and actions have been directed to the regulation of competition, the building-up of infrastructure (including the development of human resources), the stimulation of networking activities (and hence the concept of mobility), the financing of research programmes in basic pervasive technologies and the provision of S&T services, norms and standards. The new enabling conditions and constraints that society imposed on modern science practice evolved in conjunction with an escalation of global uncertainties and political instabilities in a context of demographic pressures, urban sprawl, climate change and perturbing inequalities. But why should the creation of a new knowledge-based society, involving strenuous cycles of change and adjustment, be a triumphal promenade towards the future? Rather, we should have been prepared to watch the emergence of conflictual issues, leading to severe and irreversible choices. Contingency rules the world around us: only science, the best available science, can enable humankind to see through the mists of complexity, by engaging in proper collaborations with other relevant non-scientific fields of knowledge, like philosophy, the social sciences, arts and humanities, ethics and behavioral disciplines. Science alone cannot solve the problems of sustainability. 3. Knowledge: tree or network? The archipelago metaphor The system of classification of knowledge we inherited from late positivism, a pyramid with science at the top, aimed not only at the consecration of science as the model of all other fields of knowledge but also at establishing a corresponding hierarchy, is no longer adequate. The novelty comes from the emergence a new immaterial, information-intensive order, in the realm of the material paradigm of progress and socio-economic development. Information and knowledge are not regulated by the regimes of cumulative possession or ownership developed for tangible transactions. Communicative sharing is a concept that must be introduced to allow for aspects such as assimilation and audience. What this means is that knowledge can no longer be thought of as a fluid, as in a mechanical
14 14 João Caraça framework, but has to understood by enhancing its communicative, language-based features. No classification of knowledge can be envisaged without a reference to the societal context in which it is generated. The present notion of explosion of information and of fragmentation of knowledge is probably the result of the powerful weakening and fragmenting effects that the forces of economic globalisation provoke in the social order of our nations. But this is not a singularity of our epoch. Fragmentation of prevailing social order has occurred in the past. For instance, Enlightenment brought the idea of the Encyclopaedia. As the old regime was being shaken, knowledge was envisaged as a tree, with its various fields developing as successive ramifications from the common stem: philosophy. Three main branches of the knowledge tree were assumed: the science of God, the science of Nature, and the science of Man. Then, in the late 19th century, the success of industry and the triumph of mechanics, rail-roads and iron, brought along a new rationale, the positivist's pyramid, with mathematics and the other (hard) sciences in a descending order from the top, presiding over philosophy, the humanities and religion. The pyramid was the organization of knowledge which was conveyed and taught to us and which reigned undisputed until the 1960's. However, from the standpoint of contemporary society it is impossible to maintain rigid distinctions between different fields of knowledge. The proliferation of disciplines was greatly intensified since the middle of the 20 th century along with their internal complexity. And interdisciplinary fields became established. The hierarchy of the pyramid hides important segments of contemporary knowledge, sometimes with very innovative features, simply because they are unclassifiable in the light of current criteria. Think of marketing, or design, or even software The issue is simple: criteria do not have any meaning outside strategies. Therefore, we must reappraise rather than dismiss the disciplinary references, articulating them in a communicative manner, creating a network. In this sense, the metaphor of the archipelago of knowledge is useful and heuristically operative, because it allows us to think about the criteria/strategies of the main areas of relevance today. The archipelago suggests a reticular situation, a network, with no natural hierarchy. Further, it allows the creation of new disciplines. 4. Science and knowledge
15 From science to innovation 15 The traditional approach to science and knowledge has involved the use of two perspectives ---an epistemological one, interested in the status of theories and laws and their relation to reality, and a sociological one, dealing mainly with the framework of scientific activity in a given society or environment. These perspectives, which could also be described as internal and external, have been found to be most fruitful in the well know works of Popper and Kuhn, respectively. It is doubtful, however, whether they are sufficient today. Profound changes have marked the transformations occurring in economic activities, i.e. the increase in intellectual investment compared to physical investment, the growing role of complexity in the systemic framework (which until recently was particularly dominated by materiality), the emergence of sharing as the dominant form of communicating and circulating knowledge. We now have to understand knowledge from three different aspects: (i) the production of theories; (ii) the creation of communities, and (iii) the development of specialized languages; in other words, we see knowledge as a cognitive, communal and rhetorical device. Thus, we can no longer forget the presence of tacit knowledge in the network. And, due to the different levels of sophistication in language development, the archipelago metaphor suggests that codified knowledge be split into two parts: explicit knowledge (or specialized information ) and disciplinary knowledge. The tacit relationship with the world corresponds to common knowledge, which is apprehended or diffused by exposure. The explicit relationship between man and his world corresponds to specialized information, with teaching as its main mechanism of diffusion. Finally, disciplinary knowledge corresponds to high-level languages, which diffuse through research and its protocols. The practice of research varies according to the island of the archipelago in question, i.e., with the specific cognitive, communal and rhetorical strategies: the criteria of science, based on the amplitude of empirical proof, correspond to the method of experimentation. But philosophy uses other methods, namely analysis; ethics relies on revelation ; and aesthetics uses systematic procedures of construction/deconstruction. Sharing assumes different aspects in each grand domain of knowledge. In this network metaphor the central island of the archipelago corresponds to tacit knowledge (encompassing both technical, political, religious and artistic components). Through a process of explicitation the network progressively extends and complexifies. Other islands appear: those of technology, of law, of morality, and of fine arts. And then further away, through a more intensive explicitation or thematization process, corresponding to the emergence of high precision languages, new islands of
16 16 João Caraça disciplines are seen: science, social sciences, philosophy, aesthetics, ethics Knowledge and learning True knowledge is therefore what is inside the boundary of the archipelago; and ignorance is the sea at large that surrounds it. This sea can be conquered by constructing new islands, or by launching bridges to other islands or even to newly built offshore platforms (marketing, design, ecology... emerge by such processes). The archipelago is nowadays the locus of an intense circulation of knowledge, in all directions, revealing a true network character. Of course, pseudo-knowledge creeps at every turn of the landscape, every time we want to swim (individually), or navigate (institutionally), in uncharted waters. Pseudo-knowledge can be thought of as a group of sharks, or pirate submarines, that hunt both along the shores and inside the canals of the archipelago, feeding on the discomfort of the human souls. They disrupt the existing connections and make sure that their assertions cannot be verified. We also observe a wide proliferation and renovation of pseudoknowledge in the media. The strategy followed by the practitioners of pseudo-knowledge is that of certainty versus methodological doubt, that of escaping confrontation between subject and object, that of finding refuge in unknown powers. It is based on the detection of flaws in the public system concerning scientific culture, in conjunction with the dysfunctions that exist in teaching the practice of active citizenship. The space of occultation in the so-called knowledge-based societies thrives on ignorance, feeds on intolerance. Knowledge and learning are the central resources and mechanisms of the new institutions, communities and organisations. So, the implications of the intensified circulation of knowledge will have to be recognized and fostered: disciplinary knowledge can only evolve in the context of a strong communicative framework which enables the attitude of sharing meanings and values to realise its full potential. The globalised world is made of enlarged networks which create, diffuse, finance, manage and support innovation, based on a group of formidable social, organizational and technological changes which were brought by the new process of producing technology from a science base. But these changes are societal, they are responses to the transformations
17 From science to innovation 17 experienced, involving all aspects of today s reality, concerning all networks of intense and enlarged communication that support our activity. But we must be aware, though, that the view of the world of globalisation based on knowledge, does not coincide with the view of the world of modernity, based on science. The vision brought about by the new paradigm of knowledge and information favours governance rather than government ; promotes what is global, rather than universal values. This apparently innocent change is, however, full of implications. 6. Knowledge-based societies The movement towards a knowledge-based society, involving new long distance interactive mechanisms implies a whole, i.e., a continuum of education, science and innovation which cannot be separated and must be treated in close articulation. Science is no longer at the end, or at the beginning, of societal processes. But the level of pervasiveness of science is also a measure of the achievement of a knowledge-based society. However, science will have to learn to co-exist, co-operate and coevolve with other relevant non-scientific fields of knowledge. This is not necessarily simple for the more established scientific communities. But there is no way back. And even if until the 2030 s we do not foresee the emergence of a new techno-economic paradigm, long-term trends will bound the operations and performance of globalisation. In general, personnel costs will tend to rise, as will the pressures on enterprises to internalize their costs of production; indexes of taxation by governments will also increase. With respect to innovation in the European area we may fear the effects of ageing in the dynamics of innovation policy, as well as the effects of energy concerns; further, the impact of competitive goods and services from big economies based on low salaries will almost certainly prevent the design of policies directed solely towards national contexts. The emergence of a multipolar world will probably mean the end of the present pulse of globalisation and the return to imperial demarcation of territories based on the availability of known resources. The levels of conflict in disputed areas and their damages in general will certainly continue to plague the world into the 2020 s. The new world leaders after that will have to differentiate themselves from the multitude --- this will require the invention of new resources, through the application of new (science-based) technology. We have been watching the emergence of new clusters of S&T areas which can possibly lay the pillars of a new techno-economic paradigm for
18 18 João Caraça the future i.e. in the 2030 s based on the molecularisation of the economy. This will be supported by a cohesive core of nanosciences and nanotechnologies, biosciences and biomaterials, new communication and information processing technologies. No big nation, or concert of nations, can afford to thwart the march of science. But new questions arise: (i) which directions to choose (because it is impossible to be excellent everywhere across the board); (ii) which impetus to allocate in each case (as research structure and resources are highly interdependent); how much monitoring to exert (the level of autonomy) to assure expected returns? Will the nations of Europe be able to ride and lead the new wave? 7. Living with universities Universities were a European invention. They are an essential element of scientific training, besides housing a large fraction of basic research performed in national S&T systems. In the European strategy, universities are deemed to represent central nodes in knowledge production. We know that the older universities missed the scientific revolution, and only caught-up with science much later. Will the same fate be bestowed upon European universities now, when the surge of information technologies is revolutionizing our behaviour? Can Bologna cope with the diversity of ministerial regulations that divide and quench education/science/innovation interactions in Europe? Scientific productivity is being used as a prime determinant of researcher s careers and of the level of science financing. But can we identify with ease the entities who (globally) control science today? The US followed a singular strategy: a series of cold-war universities (the first and best example being Stanford) were selected by the federal government to ensure a proper environment for the new (then, in the late 1940 s) science-based technology production processes. The US were very successful in that not only these universities evolved into a new model of university the research university but also in that they found their place at the top of the higher-education system and developed as prime interlocutors of powerful hi-tech industries. The US research universities however are both a by-product and a component of a specific highly developed capitalist economy they are independent, have their own sources of funding (through endowments) and, above all, are not managed by any central ministry or authority of the sort.