February 9 to 13 While we expect the release of economic indicators on the international front to be much calmer than in previous weeks which doesn t mean we won t have any important data release from abroad the focus in Brazil will be on news flow relating to the dynamics of the local economic activity performance. We think the highlights of data from abroad should be 4Q14 Euro Zone GDP and advance retail sales in the US for Jan15, which are likely to underpin the necessity for the former to come up with new measures to stir up the region s economy and a higher likelihood for the latter to start increasing the base interest rate sooner than later this year. In Brazil, on top of the discussion about the change in the composition of the Central Bank Board and its implication for the trajectory of the Selic rate in the future, the release of retail sales data and economic activity index should help the Brazilian monetary authority to convince itself that it has already done a lot to guarantee the convergence of actual inflation to the targeted level in 2016 and that is time to let other forces act and help it. Brazil In our view, the nomination of Mr. Tony Volpon to replace Mr. Carlos Hamilton Araújo may be Ms Rousseff s administration signalling to market participants. Onwards, one will not be able to say monetary policy is being run solely by technocrats insensitive to the nuances of the financial market. However, given the wording that the Central Bank governor has been using of late, it doesn t look like the Brazilian monetary authority s confidence that it fulfilled most of its job has diminished. Consequently, regardless of the nomination granted to Mr. Volpon, we believe the Copom members are likely to change the pace of the ongoing monetary tightening cycle to 25bps from 50bps carried out two weeks ago. Incidentally, we think the release of two activity indicators is likely to increase the likelihood of such a move. Jankiel Santos Chief economist + 55 11 3074 7344 jsantos@espiritosantoib.com.br Flávio Serrano Senior economist + 55 11 3074 7343 fserrano@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman 0800 7700 668 On the back of a less favourable environment for the Brazilian labour market and the consequent deceleration in real wage growth rate, in tandem with stricter credit conditions, the household consumption expansion has been losing momentum as well, as depicted by the behaviour of retail sales gauges. Unfortunately, that should have been the case in Dec14 as well, as we expect the broader gauge to have expanded some 0.4% MoM sa, while the narrower gauge which factors out the performance of building material stores and auto-parts and vehicles dealers should have receded 0.1% MoM. If our monthly forecasts prove to be right, the average level of retail sales in 2014 vis a vis the average level observed in 2014 will be 2.8% higher than in 2014 the lowest annual expansion of the series, except for 2008 (1.2%). Apparently, the (government s) alternative to grant incentives to private consumption has run its course and it should exert less pressure over price dynamics ahead. Chart 1: retail sales indices (2011=100, sa) 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Source: IBGE, BESI Brasil. - forecast Narrow sales Broad sales Albeit positive, the contribution of retail segment to total GDP should be offset by the strong decline recorded by the industrial sector, which is why we expect the Brazilian Central Bank s economic activity index dubbed, IBC-BR to have receded 0.8% MoM sa in Dec14. Such an outcome would have led the indicator to register a full-year decline of 0.2% - the first annual negative print since 2009, when the economy plummeted because of the A equipe do Departamento Econômico do BES Investimento do Brasil S/A - Banco de Investimento elaborou esta mensagem com propósito meramente informativo, baseada em informações disponíveis ao público e obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, porém, não garante sua precisão e abrangência. As considerações apresentadas no texto refletem apenas as opiniões atuais da área e estão sujeitas a alterações sem aviso prévio. O BES Investimento do Brasil - Banco de Investimento não tem nenhuma obrigação de atualizar ou manter atualizada as informações e opiniões expressas no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own
confidence shock provoked by the international financial crisis of,2008. More important than the number itself, it s the (gloomy) perspective that the IBC- BR provides for the behaviour of the Brazilian GDP in 2014 (slated to be released on 27 March). Chart 2: CB s economic activity index (2002=100, sa) 155.0 145.0 135.0 125.0 115.0 105.0 IBC-BR Qtly avg 95.0 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Source: Banco Central do Brasil, BESI Brasil. - forecast Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Therefore, the excerpt present in the minutes of the last Copom meeting, which says that the actual GDP is likely to run below the potential GDP should be buttressed by the result of the IBC-BR. Hence, before the release of the official GDP performance in 4Q14, the Brazilian Central Bank will count on the information provided by its own indicator that things haven t run so well on the economic activity front. Consequently, Copom members may decide that is time for slowing down the tightening pace. Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) Indicator Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior 09-15Feb - - Chinese Money Supply M0 YoY Jan - - 3.0% 2.9% 09-12Feb - - Brazilian ABPO Jan. Cardboard Sales Jan - - - - - - 13-17Feb - - German Wholesale Price Index YoY Jan - - - - -2.3% Monday 05:00 German Current Account Balance Dec - - - - 18.6B 05:00 German Exports SA MoM Dec - - - - -1.9% 05:00 German Imports SA MoM Dec - - - - 1.6% 07:30 Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb - - - - 0.9 08:00 Brazilian FGV CPI IPC-S 8-Feb 1.66% - - 1.73% 08:30 Brazilian CB's Focus Report - IPCA 2015 6-Feb - - - - 7.01% 13:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index Change Jan - - - - 6.1 15:00 Brazilian Trade Balance Weekly 8-Feb - - - - -$844M 23:30 Chinese CPI YoY Jan - - 1.0% 1.5% 23:30 Chinese PPI YoY Jan - - -3.7% -3.3% Tuesday 05:00 Brazilian FIPE CPI - Weekly 7-Feb 1.81% - - 1.27% 05:45 French Industrial Production MoM Dec - - - - -0.3% 06:00 Japanese Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity - - - - - - - - 07:00 ECB's Costa, Praet Speak in Lisbon - - - - - - - - 07:00 Italian Industrial Production MoM Dec - - 0.0% 0.3% 07:30 British Industrial Production MoM Dec - - 0.2% -0.1% 08:00 Brazilian IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview Feb -0.01% - - 0.29% 09:00 Brazilian National Unemployment Rate - PNAD 4Q15 - - - - 6.8% no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own
Weekly indicators Date Time (Brazil) 10:00 Indicator Brazilian Central Bank Releases the Regional Economic Report Reference BES forecast Market consensus Prior - - - - - - - - 11:20 Fed's Lacker to speak in North Carolina - - - - - - - - 13:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec - - 0.1% 0.8% 13:00 British NIESR GDP Estimate Jan - - - - 0.6% 13:00 US JOLTS Job Openings Dec - - - - 4,972 - - Brazilian ABCR Highway Transportation Report Jan - - - - - - Wednesday 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales MoM Dec -0.1% - - 0.9% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales YoY Dec 3.1% 2.9% 1.0% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad MoM Dec 0.4% - - 1.2% 09:00 Brazilian Retail Sales Broad YoY Dec 2.8% - - -2.7% 10:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Feb - - - - 1.3% 11:00 Fed's Fisher speaks in New York - - - - - - - - 12:30 Brazilian Currency Flows Weekly - - - - - - - - 17:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Jan - - -$2.1B $1.9B Thursday 05:00 German CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jan F - - -0.5% -0.5% 08:00 Euro-zone Industrial Production SA MoM Dec - - 0.3% 0.2% 08:30 Brazilian Economic Activity MoM Dec -0.8% - - 0.0% 08:30 Brazilian Economic Activity YoY Dec 0.4% -0.1% -1.3% 08:30 Bank of England Inflation Report - - - - - - - - 11:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jan - - -0.4% -0.9% 11:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jan - - -0.3% -1.0% 11:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 7-Feb - - - - 278K 13:00 US Business Inventories Dec - - 0.2% 0.2% 19:00 Chilean Overnight Rate Target 12-Feb - - 3.00% 3.00% 21:00 Peruvian Reference Rate Feb - - - - 3.25% - - Brazilian Serasa Consumer Credit Delinquency Jan - - - - - - Friday 00:00 Chinese Conference Board Leading Economic Index Jan - - - - - - Source: Bloomberg, BESI Brasil. 04:30 French GDP QoQ 4Q P - - - - 0.3% 05:00 German GDP SA QoQ 4Q P - - 0.2% 0.1% 07:00 Italian GDP WDA QoQ 4Q P - - - - -0.1% 07:30 Italian General Government Debt Dec - - - - 2160.1B 07:30 British Construction Output SA MoM Dec - - - - -2.0% 08:00 Brazilian FGV Inflation IGP-10 MoM Feb 0.39% 0.42% 0.42% 08:00 Euro-zone GDP SA QoQ 4Q A - - 0.2% 0.2% 08:00 Euro-zone GDP SA YoY 4Q A - - 0.8% 0.8% 11:30 US Import Price Index YoY Jan - - - - -5.5% 13:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb P - - 98.1 98.1 16:30 US Fed's Fisher speaks in San Antonio - - - - - - - - no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own
2012 2013 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E National Accounts GDP (BRL billion) 4,392.1 4,844.8 5,148 5,522 6,001 GDP (USD billion) 2,247.3 2,243.1 2,186 2,030 2,161 GDP - Real Growth (%) 1.03 2.49 0.1 0.4 2.0 Economic Activity Industrial Production (%) -2.58 1.14-3.23 0.5 3.0 Unemployment Rate (%) - average 5.51 5.39 4.85 5.6 6.5 Price Indices IPCA - Consumer Price Index (%) 5.84 5.91 6.41 7.3 5.8 IGP-M - General Price Index (%) 7.82 5.51 3.69 5.7 5.1 IGP-DI - General Price Index (%) 8.10 5.52 3.78 5.6 5.1 Interest Rates Selic Target - end of year (%) 7.25 10.00 11.75 12.50 9.50 Selic - average (%) 8.49 8.22 10.90 12.5 10.5 Real Interest Rate - Selic/IPCA (%) 2.51 2.18 4.23 4.8 4.4 TJLP - Long Term Interest Rates (%) 5.75 5.00 5.00 5.88 6.00 FX Rates FX Rate - end of year (BRL/USD) 2.044 2.343 2.656 2.75 2.80 FX Rate - average (BRL/USD) 1.955 2.161 2.355 2.72 2.78 FX Rate - end of year (BRL/EUR) 2.696 3.219 3.213 3.03 2.94 FX Rate - average (BRL/EUR) 2.514 2.870 3.128 3.03 2.98 FX Rate - end of year (USD/EUR) 1.319 1.374 1.210 1.10 1.05 FX Rate - average (USD/EUR) 1.286 1.329 1.329 1.11 1.07 Balance of Payments Exports (USD billion) 242.578 242.034 225.101 234.0 253.1 Imports (USD billion) 223.183 239.634 229.031 230.0 248.8 Trade Balance (USD billion) 19.395 2.399-3.930 4.0 4.3 Current Account (USD billion) -54.249-81.374-90.948-73.1-69.1 Current Account (% of GDP) -2.41-3.63-4.16-3.6-3.2 International Reserves (USD billion) 378.613 375.794 374.031 370.0 370.0 Sovereign Risk - end of year (bps) 142 224 259 250 250 Public Sector Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.39 1.88-0.63 1.2 2.0 Nominal Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.48-3.25-6.70-4.6-3.6 Total Net Debt (% of GDP) 35.29 33.57 36.68 38.7 38.9 Sources: Bacen, IBGE, FGV, FIPE, Secex Projections: BESI Brasil no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own
Contact information BESI Brasil S.A. Banco de Investimento Address: Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3729 9 th floor - Itaim Bibi ZIP 04538-905 São Paulo SP, BRAZIL Telephone: + 55 11 3074 7444 / 3193 7444 Fax: + 55 11 3074 7469 / 3193 7469 E-mail: besinvestimento@espiritosantoib.com.br Ombudsman: 0800 77 00668 BESI BRASIL BANCO DE INVESTIMENTO Project Finance, Acquisition Finance, Structured Trade Finance & Other Loans Alan Fernandes alanf@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7497 Capital Markets Miguel Guiomar mguiomar@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7443 Corporate Finance Maria Luiza Baroni mlbaroni@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7440 Fixed Income (Sales & Trading) & Treasury Roberto Simões rsimoes@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7383 Client Coverage Miguel Lins Silvan Suassuna Geraldo Rinaldi Eduardo Bierrenbach Luciana Costa miguell@espiritosantoib.com.br ssuassuna@espiritosantoib.com.br grinaldi@espiritosantoib.com.br ebierrenbach@espiritosantoib.com.br laparecida@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7423 BES Securities do Brasil Brokerage house Rui Marques rmarques@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7103 Management Control, Risk Management & Investor Relations Carlos Guzzo cguzzo@espiritosantoib.com.br 11 3074 7507 no presente documento. The team elaborated this message for market professionals only and it is not a solicitation to buy or sell nor does it constitute a confirmation or research of any securities and cannot be relied upon for any investment decision. We may trade for our own