Prospects and Expectations for Distributed and Utility-Scale PV in Brazil

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1 Logo Prospects and Expectations for Distributed and Utility-Scale PV in Brazil Prof. Ricardo Rüther Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina - UFSC & Instituto para o Desenvolvimento das Energias Alternativas na América Latina - IDEAL

2 Photovoltaics in Brazil: DG Distributed Generation: ANEEL RN 482/ Microgenerators: up to 100 kwp (75 kwp after revision) - Minigenerators: 100 kwp up to 1 MWp (75 kwp to 5 MWp after revision) Net Metering (energy credits valid for 36 months) Under revision in Q Competes with Euro > 0.20/kWh

3 Photovoltaics: distributed x centralized

4 Photovoltaics: distributed x centralized Pituaçu Solar, 400 kw COELBA, Salvador-Bahia, 2012

5 Key countries around the world experiencing grid parity (REUTERS, 2015) Typical Yield ± 1500 kwh/kwp/year Tariff: Euro 0.22/kWh REUTERS. Solar energy enjoys a glowing outlook. Available at < Accessed on 1/Jun/15.

6 Private companies trying innovative approach to financing rooftop PV Automatic debit from payroll

7 Estudo do Mercado FV no Brasil empresas cadastradas no site do Instituto IDEAL 53,8% sem projetos 46,2% com projetos 16,0% 7,5% 7,5% 4,7% No. de Projetos maior a 4 10,4% N*=106 O cadastro mantido pelo Instituto Ideal passou de 352 em setembro de 2014, para 504 em maio de 2015.

8 Estudo do Mercado FV no Brasil Preço Médio (R$/Wp) R$ 16,00 R$ 14,00 R$ 12,00 R$ 10,00 R$ 8,00 R$ 6,00 R$ 4,00 R$ 8,81 R$ 7,85 R$ 6,98 R$ 6,22 Variação Média R$ 2,00 R$ 0,00 < 5 kwp 5 a 30 kwp 30 a 100 kwp > 100 kwp N1 = 44 N2 = 37 N3 = 26 N4 = 22 R$ 6,98 R$ 3,97 Brasil ( kwp) Alemanha* ( kwp) * Preço da Alemanha do terceiro trimestre de 2014, calculado com base em Fraunhofer ISE (2014), considerando 1 = R$ 3,00 (vigente naquele período) Gráfico 8 - Comparação de preços de sistemas fotovoltaicos de médio porte

9 Estudo do Mercado FV no Brasil

10 Estudo do Mercado FV no Brasil

11 Estudo do Mercado FV no Brasil Até 1 mês 2 meses 3 meses 4 meses Mais de 4 meses N=65 Gráfico 24 - Tempo médio de atraso na finalização da instalação do sistema FV devido às dificuldades Sem previsão para finalizar a instalação

12 Photovoltaics in Brazil: Utility-scale Dedicated solar PV auctions organised by government Dec 2014: 1st Solar Auction = 1 $ 70/MWh (to come online until 2017) Aug 2015: 2nd Solar Auction = 1 < $ 100/MWh (to come online in 2016) Nov 2015: expect another 1 $?/MWh Wind $ 40/MWh!

13 The trend in Brazil (and some interesting opportunities!)

14 The New Trend in Brazil

15 The trend Add PV to existing or planned wind power plants Solar and wind resource availability are complementary in some regions in Brazil

16 The trend Add PV to existing or planned wind power plants Add 30 MWp of PV to existing 90 MW wind park (100 MVA substation) No need to upgrade substation? Very little curtailment

17 And another more recent trend in Brazil

18 The Newest Trend in Brazil: floating PV!!!! Total installed hydro capacity: ~ 100 GW Total flooded area of large-hydro in Brazil: 40,000 km 2 = ~ 10 million acres Total PV the same area would be able to accommodate: 5.7 TWp!!! (world PV = 0.2 TWp)

19 Brazilian regulator (ANEEL) requires ALL utilities to invest on R&D Example R&D project: 30 million US$ (single project) 3 MWp R&D PV power plant + 8 identical evaluation sites, 7 PV technologies each 3MWp PV power plant 8 evaluation sites (~ 70kWp each)

20 3 MWp R&D PV power plant Desenvolvimento de Técnicas e Procedimentos de Inspeção 1 second resolution

21 Power [kw] 12 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% MWp R&D solar power plant with various inverter loading ratios (80% to 170%) Clipping on sunny days is expected for high inverter loading ratios (ILR)!! 23/10/2014 (DD/MM/YYYY) Photovoltaic Technology: multi c-si Max. Irradiance: 1150 W/m² Inverter: ABB(Aurora) PVI TL Undersizing of inverters is questionable!

22 Yield [kwh/kwp] Energy [kwh] But the effect needs to be quantified on an annual basis 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Yield 140-0,12% 0,00% 0,00% -2,65% -1,40% -2,56% -3,84% 130-7,74% -10,72% ,24% % 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% Load Factor Undersizing of inverters is questionable!

23 Brazilian regulator (ANEEL) requires ALL utilities to invest on R&D Example R&D project: 30 million US$ (single project) 3 MWp R&D PV power plant + 8 identical evaluation sites, 7 PV technologies each 3MWp PV power plant 8 evaluation sites (~ 70kWp each)

24 8 identical test 8 different Brazilian climates Desenvolvimento de Técnicas e Procedimentos de Inspeção Multi/c-Si (Hanwha) Mono/c-Si (Yingli); a-si (Dupont Apollo) a-si/µc-si (Dupont Apollo) CdTe (First Solar) CIGS (Saint Gobain) CPV InGaP/GaAs/Ge (Daido Steel) 2 axis tracking 1 second resolution

25 Effects of solar resource measurement time resolution: inverter sizing Energy Time G<= % 42% G<=700 45% 71% 700<G< % 16% G>= % 13% G>=1200 6% 2% 28% extra energy Undersizing of inverters is questionable!

26 % do desvio relativo ( média histórica e dados sintéticos) % da irradiação (Dados Sintéticos) % da irradiação (média histórica ) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Software packages take solar resource distribution for granted This is reality (15 year measurements) 2% 1% 0% Irradiância (W/m²) 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% This is what PVSyst will use for PV system sizing 2% 1% 0% 5% Irradiância (W/m²) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% inverter undersizing Irradiância (W/m²) not recommended

27 Cloud-edge and cloud-enhancement effects Record-breaking overirradiance events

28 Cloud-edge and cloud-enhancement effects M. P. Almeida, R. Zilles & E. Lorenzo, 2014, Extreme overirradiance events in São Paulo, Brazil, Solar Energy, Vol. 110,

29 Cloud-edge and cloud-enhancement effects Itiquira-MT evaluation site (one of the eight sites) 1822 W/m²

30 Cloud-edge and cloud-enhancement effects Cachoeira Dourada-GO evaluation site (another one of the eight sites) 3 min 1 min

31 Possible revision of maximum fuse rating by PV module manufacturer Fuse estimated temperature of 70 C Derating factor due to high fuse temperature Long over irradiance events Manufacturer specified fuse blows

32 Soiling, depends on the soil...

33 Soiling, depends on the soil...

34 Soiling, depends on the soil...

35 Soiling, depends on the soil......and also on the PV technology Pmpp (W) Difference Dirty to Clean (%) Difference Clean Dirty % ,2% 11,3% 12% 10% 8% ,5% 5,6% 4,5% 6% 4% Soiling acts as a filter for short wavelengths (blue light) Good for CIGS; bad for CdTe and a-si a-si CIGS a-si/µc-si m-si p-si 2% 0%

36 Soiling on 1-axis tracking PV

37 Acúmulo de poeira (soiling)

38 Choice of PV Technologies: Temperature Effects Overview of Temperature Coefficients of Different Thin Film Photovoltaic Technologies A. Virtuani, D. Pavanello, G. Friesen Scuola Universitaria Professionale della Svizzera Italiana (SUPSI) Istituto per la Sostenibilità Applicata all Ambiente Costruito (ISAAC), Canobbio CH-6952, Switzerland 25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition / 5th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 6-10 September 2010, Valencia, Spain

39 Utility-scale PV plant quality control

40 Utility-scale PV plant quality control

41 Utility-scale PV plant quality control

42 Choice of PV Technologies: Spectral Effects <- blue red -> Normalized spectral response for seven PV technologies and the standard ASTM G spectrum Relative spectral response of various PV technologies (multicrystalline Si, amorphous Si, CdTe and CIGS), measured under STC temperature (25 C), with the AM1.5G spectrum (grey) also shown as reference (LIU et al., 2014b).

43 Choice of PV Technologies: Spectral Effects <- blue red -> Estimativa da distribuição espectral da radiação solar sobre o território brasileiro através de análise multiinstrumental Ph.D. Thesis - Rafael Haag 2012 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, orientador: Prof. Arno Krenzinger

44 Choice of PV Technologies: Spectral Effects <- blue red -> infrared ->

45 Outlook Distributed PV makes sense now! -Tariffs x excellent solar resource availability -Needs market development (financing) -Needs dissemination (spread the word) Utility-scale market is coming = need to diversify Brazilian energy mix and grow > 5 GW/year! -Still needs incentives = dedicated auctions

46 Logo Prospects and Expectations for Distributed and Utility-Scale PV in Brazil Prof. Ricardo Rüther Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina - UFSC & Instituto para o Desenvolvimento das Energias Alternativas na América Latina - IDEAL