A visão da EDP para a Energia Solar Conferência ENERGIA 2020

Transcrição

1 A visão da EDP para a Energia Solar Conferência ENERGIA 2020 Pedro Neves Ferreira Director de Planeamento Energético EDP pedro.nevesferreira@edp.pt Lisboa, 8 de Fevereiro de 2010

2 Agenda Visão da energia solar no mundo Implicações para Portugal 1

3 Agenda Visão da energia solar no mundo Implicações para Portugal 2

4 Solar power is the most abundant renewable resource on Earth and current tech could supply ~4X today s energy consumption Theoretical potential of renewable sources Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year 1 Technically accessible potential of renewables Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year 1 1,0 0,5 0,4 0,2 0,1 5,9 3,8 Sun Geo Wind Biomass Hydro Ocean Total All renewable energy sources provide more than times the current global energy needs Technically accessible potential is the amount that could be accessed with currently available technologies and could provide nearly 6 times current global needs 1. World primary energy consumption in 1 year is estimated at ~ TWh (2005) Source: EREC/Greenpeace Energy [r]evolution 2008 citing the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and Dr. Joachim Nitsch (German Aerospace Center - Institute of Technical Thermodynamics) 3

5 World Solar installed capacity has been growing at an accelerating pace to reach ~17 GW by 09, increasingly in grid connected units World installed capacity MW, E -CAGR - Annual additions - Cumulative Installed capacity by application % of cumulative capacity, Grid connected - Off-grid Centralized CSP + 31% Centralized PV Distributed Grid Connected PV + 14% Off-Grid PV Installed capacity growing at accelerating pace, even in the context of a major crystalline silicon shortage With shortage solved, growth is expected to push through in coming years, after a slowdown in 09 due to the crisis Rural Off-grid has very high long term growth potential (developing economies e.g.: China, India, Africa) Source: EPIA Solar Generation V, IEA - Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme 2008 Trends Report, EER - Global CSP Development Strategies , EER Global Renewable Power Generation Forecasts , Team Analysis 4

6 By end-2008 Germany had ~35% of total global installed capacity, while Spain alone accounted for ~50% of new additions in 2008 Top 6 Solar countries Cumulative capacity MW, 2008 Top 6 Solar countries Added capacity MW, % 46% 22% 27% 14% 6% 10% 2% 2% Only ~150 MW expected to be added in % 5% 4% 14% 8% -PV -CSP 100% 100% Source: EPIA 2013 Global Market Outlook for PV, EER Global CSP Markets and Strategies

7 Solar installed capacity may reach over 175 GW by 2020, mostly through PV growth Global Solar installed capacity outlook GW, PV 3,2 duplications until 2020 CSP 5,0 duplications until X 32X 2020 forecast according to different sources 2020 forecast according to different sources Key growth drivers Ability of solar PV industry to maintain historic learning rates Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies Relative competitiveness with end-user retail tariffs Massification of building integrated applications Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies Evolution of fossil fuel prices and conventional generation costs Relative competitiveness with conventional generation Source: EPIA Solar Generation V (2008), EREC Energy Revolution 2008, McKinsey & Co. Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08), EER Global Renewable Power Generation Forecasts , Team analysis 6

8 Unlike Wind, Solar power generation technologies have not stabilized around a unique development standard Wind technology has generally standardized..while Solar technology has kept diversifying Rotor diameter (m) - Mass production - Prototypes 97% Solar PV 3% 86% Crystalline Silicon ~3% Parabolic Trough Solar CSP 11% Thin Films ~0% Central Tower 0% CPV 0% Parabolic Dish - Share of world solar installed capacity (2008) Stable technological standard generically achieved Evolution around scaling and materials cost/resistance Multiple radically different technologies in competition And new pathways still being developed (e.g.: organic PV, nano PV, dye sensitized PV) Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, McKinsey & Co. Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08); EPIA Solar Generation V 2008; EER Global CSP Markets and Strategies (Nov 2007), Team Analysis 7

9 As a result, Solar tech selection is a key success factor, driven mostly by local solar resource and application type Solar technology matrix Scale Ground based Utility Over 250 kw Large DG Rooftop or Groundbased 5 to 250 kw Thin Film cheapest option if land is free c-si may be viable alternative CSP best option in most cases CPV in ground based applications (requires trackers) Rooftop / Building Integrated Less than 5kW c-si in space constrained rooftops due to high efficiency Thin Film for unconventional building integrated applications Low Irradiation Less than kwh/m 2 Medium Irradiation to kwh/m 2 High Irradiation Over kwh/m 2 Geography Berlin, Paris, New York, London Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, Athens Arizona, South Spain, North Africa Source: Team analysis 8

10 New manufacturing capacity and the economic crisis have reversed c-si shortage, bringing module prices down over 30% since Dec-08 Price history and forward curve for c-si $/kg of c-si, E c-si Module price evolution /W, Jul 08 forward curve 1 - Oct 09 forward curve 1 Supply shortage - c-si Retail Module price index 4 - c-si Factory Module price index 5 c-si BoS 3 prices have also decreased ~20% to ~1,35 /W meaning installed System prices fell from ~4,7 /W to ~3,2 /W -10% -32% As a side effect, Thin Film s recent cost competitiveness relative to c-si has been reduced Source: NEF - Silicon Forward Price Index I 2008/08/14 and Silicon Forward Price Index V 2009/11/10, SolarBuzz.com, pvexchange.de 1. Median price for all standing forward polysilicon contracts, by year of delivery 2. Spot prices fell from a high of 470 $/kg in March 08 to the current value of 60 $/kg as of November BoS Balance of System 4. SolarBuzz.com - Nov pvexchange.de Nov 09 9

11 Several sources see cost competitiveness arriving soon, depending on wholesale and retail prices and location Drivers for evolution in cost competitiveness Break-even year World installed capacity duplications PV rooftop vs retail rates Roland Berger FBR Research New Energy Finance PV utility scale vs. pool EPIA MBIPV Roland Berger Learning rate Retail rates / pool price real increase CSP vs. pool EER McKinsey & Co. Source: MBIPV, FBR Research, New Energy Finance, Emerging Energy Research, McKinsey& Co., Roland Berger, Team analysis 10

12 Agenda Visão da energia solar no mundo Implicações para Portugal 11

13 O cumprimento dos objectivos assumidos para 2020 implica abastecer ~60% do consumo de electricidade a partir de renováveis Peso de cada sector no consumo Peso de renováveis por sector % Consumo Final Bruto 2 % RES 1 por Sector Contribuição de cada sector p.p. de contribuição para RES 1 Total Transportes Calor e Frio (Não Eléctrico) X = Electricidade 31% Corresponde a ~40,4 TWh de geração renovável em 2020 Objectivo assumido por Portugal de renováveis em 2020 no âmbito do Pacote Energia Clima 1. RES Renewable Energy Sources 2. Os pesos dos sectores não somam 100% devido a efeitos contabilísticos impostos pela Directiva da EU. Ex.: o consumo de energia em Transportes Aéreos e Marítimos não conta para peso de renováveis no sector Transportes, pelo que não está incluído no peso do sector Transportes, mas contribui para o Consumo Final Bruto total do país. 12

14 O programa de Governo define uma nova meta de MW de Solar até 2020 Objectivos de potência instalada de Solar em Portugal MW acumulados, Possível repartição por tipo de instalação MW, Total (novo objectivo) - Micro-Geração (objectivo DL 363/2007) Objectivo anunciado pelo Governo em Outubro 2009 Centralizado CSP PV Objectivo anunciado pelo Governo em 2007 Percurso previsto no DL 363/ Distribuído MW Integrado edif. 50 Micro rooftop 400 Mini rooftop DL 363/2007 prevê 10 MW instalados em 2008 com volume de instalações a aumentar 20% em cada ano até 2015, chegando a 165 MW de PV distribuído 13

15 A geração Solar é um elemento crítico no cumprimento deste objectivo Mix de geração renovável em Portugal em 2020 TWh Geração Renovável Bruta, % de RES-E PNBEPH e Reforços Adicional para chegar a MW horas Target RES-E Hidro Aj. Eólica Aj. Outras Gap para Target 2020 Grande Hidro Mini Hidro Eólica Geotérmica Ondas Biomassa Solar Gap Restante Capacidade já instalada 2009 Novos acréscimos previstos no programa de Governo 1. Assumindo um mix de tecnologias solares (500 MW horas MW PV horas MW PV horas) 14

16 Para viabilizar este objectivo, haverá que alterar o enquadramento regulatório da energia solar Desbloquear processo de licenciamento para instalações utility scale através da definição de regras claras e de mercado para a atribuição de potência Aumentar potência atribuída para micro-geração Fomentar a procura do Estado através de programas de instalação de painéis nos seus edifícios Adequar a actual tarifa à evolução dos custos das tecnologias por forma a controlar o sobrecusto para os consumidores Promover a Investigação e Desenvolvimento em particular para novas tecnologias não commoditizadas 15