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1 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 1 of 13 Concursos de Projectos de I&D Calls for R&D Projects Voltar à descrição do projecto Back to project description Imprimir esta página Print this page Visão global da candidatura Application overview Ocultar todos as secções desta candidatura Hide all sections for this application Referência do projecto Project reference PTDC/AAC-CLI/111733/2009 (Lacrado a às 16:46) 1. Identificação do projecto 1. Project description Área científica principal Main Area Ambiente e Alterações Climáticas - Alterações Climáticas Área científica Secundária Secondary area Ciências da Terra e do Espaço - Atmosfera Título do projecto (em português) Project title (in portuguese) Alterações climáticas nos episódios extremos de precipitação na Península Ibérica e seus mecanismos forçadores - CLIPE Título do projecto (em inglês) Project title (in english) Climate change of precipitation extreme episodes in the Iberian Peninsula and its forcing mechanisms - CLIPE Financiamento solicitado Requested funding ,00 Palavra-chave 1 Keyword 1 Extremos de precipitação Precipitation extremes Palavra-chave 2 Keyword 2 Alterações climáticas Climate change Palavra-chave 3 Keyword 3 Forçamento da precipitação Precipitation forcing Palavra-chave 4 Keyword 4 Modelação climática regional Regional climate modeling Data de início do projecto Duração do projecto em meses Starting date Duration in months Instituições envolvidas 2. Institutions and their roles Instituição Proponente

2 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 2 of 13 Principal Contractor Universidade de Aveiro (UA) Campus Universitário de Santiago Aveiro Instituição Participante Participating Institution Universidade de Évora (UE) Largo dos Colegiais, 2 - Apartado Évora Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD) Quinta dos Prados - Apartado Vila Real Unidade de Investigação Research Unit Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar (CESAM/UA) Campus Universitário de Santiago Aveiro Unidade de Investigação Adicional Additional Research Unit Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Mediterrânicas (ICAM/UE) Herdade da Mitra - Valverde 7000Évora Instituição de Acolhimento Host Institution Departamento de Física - Universidade de Aveiro (UA) Campus de Santiago Aveiro 3. Componente Científica 3. Scientific Component 3.1. Sumário 3.1 Abstract 3.1.a Em português 3.1.a In Portuguese Ver, por favor, a descrição do Sumário em Inglês. 3.1.b Em inglês 3.1.b In English The main purposes of this project is (i) to diagnose the climate change signal in the occurrence of precipitation extreme episodes over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and (ii) to identify the physical forcing mechanisms involved, using high-resolution model simulations performed with state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In order to achieve the first purpose, a multi-model ensemble of twenty five RCM simulations performed by the Research Teams RT3/RT2B of the ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), available on their archive at will be used. The ENSEMBLES project (contract number GOCE-CT ) was supported by the European Commission's 6th Framework Programme as a 5 year Integrated Project from under the Thematic Sub-Priority "Global Change and Ecosystems". These twenty five RCM simulations were performed by fifteen RCMs driven with boundary conditions obtained from simulations performed with five different General Circulation Models (GCMs). The GCMs ran under historic ( ) forcing conditions, and under the A1B scenario ( ) forcing formulated by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The GCM output was then used for boundary conditions to drive the RCMs for a European domain with a horizontal spatial resolution of 25 km and a temporal resolution of 6 hours. Here, we will use daily precipitation (PRP) and mean sea level pressure (SLP) over the IP region for the periods (recent past) and (future). Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from the PRP daily data, we can define a precipitation extreme episode by the pair of threshold values (Dmin, Imin), where Dmin is the minimum number of consecutive days with daily SPI above the Imin value. We consider a great range of episode types according to the preset pair (Dmin, Imin). As an example, an extreme episode type could be defined as a period with three or more days with daily SPI values greater than the 75th percentile. For both climates (recent past and future), a precipitation episode of a specific type is then characterised by two variables: the number of episodes of that type with a specific duration in days, and the number of episodes of that type with a specific mean intensity (total SPI divided by the duration). Given these variables, which can be considered to be random variables, the climate change is assessed by the changes of their estimated Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The PDFs will be estimated at grid points of particular social and economic importance, such as major cities, and also at grid points representative of the IP sectors with different precipitation regimes (Rodriguez-P. et al., 1998; Serrano et al., 1999). The second objective of this project will be achieved in two steps. First, the links between the precipitation of each IP sector and the general circulation are explored using Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) classified by an objective circulation classification scheme using the SLP data (Jones et al, 1993; Goodess and Paulikof, 1998; Trigo and DaCamara, 2000; Goodess and Jones, 2002). After

3 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 3 of 13 determining the CWTs for the recent past and future climates, composites of precipitation extreme episodes for each CWT are built, for each IP sector, and the PDFs defined above are computed again for each composite and for both climates. The second step will involve two new AGCM and RCM experiments. In the first experiment, the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model will be forced by boundary conditions obtained by simulations of the recent past climate ( ) and of a future climate ( ) under the A1B scenario, performed with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), available at The RCM will be run in the IP domain with a higher spatial resolution than the one of the ENSEMBLES RCMs. Then, the precipitation extreme episode analyses done with the ENSEMBLES RCMs data will also be done with the WRF data. For validation purposes the daily gridded observational dataset compiled by the ENSEMBLES RT5 (Haylock et al., 2008), available at will be used. The second experiment is a sensitivity study for exploring the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the projected changes of the PDFs of the precipitation extreme episodes in a particular CWT. After identifying SST anomaly patterns associated with the PDF changes, for each CWT, the atmospheric component of CCSM, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), will be forced by these SST anomalies and the output used to drive the WRF, producing high-resolution patterns of precipitation that can be used to study the forcing mechanisms of the projected changes Técnica 3.2 Technical Revisão da Literatura Literature Review Precipitation variability has an essential role in water management, which in turn controls agriculture, as well as other economic activities and ultimately social development and behaviour. PRP characteristics over the IP have been studied for some time now. It is known that rainfall over the IP is associated with a pattern of MSLP variability that bears strong similarities to the pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981; Rogers, 1990; Deser and Blackmon, 1993; Hurrel 1995), especially in winter. Modes of variation of PRP, and their relationship with large-scale circulation patterns, were determined, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), at the monthly time-scale for the IP by Serrano et al. (1999), at seasonal and annual time-scales for Spain by Esteban-Parra et al. (1998), and at the annual time-scale for the IP by Rodriguez-P. et al. (1998). Zhang et al. (1997) and Corte-Real et. al (1998) studied the relationship between daily large-scale circulation patterns, computed using k-means clustering with PCA of daily MSLP, and monthly PRP in Portugal. Ulbrich et al. (1999) investigated the influence of the mean advection of humidity, associated with the NAO, and of the baroclinic wave activity, which in turn influences the NAO, on Iberian PRP. The influence of circulation weather types (CWTs) on PRP was studied by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) for Portugal, and by Goodess and Jones (2002) for the IP. It is now generally accepted that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations can increase the frequency of extreme PRP events in many regions of the globe. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase downwelling infrared radiation, and this global heating at the surface not only acts to increase temperatures but also increases evaporation which enhances the atmospheric moisture content. Consequently all weather systems, which feed on the available moisture through stormscale moisture convergence, are likely to produce correspondingly enhanced PRP rates (Trenberth, 1999). Consequently, the moistening of the atmosphere can result in progressively larger frequency increases at high PRP intensities, which can even occur in regions where mean PRP decreases. Consistent with the aforementioned conceptual considerations, the frequency of extreme PRP events has increased over the last 50 years over many areas of the globe, as a consequence of global warming (Alexander et al., 2006, IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, recent global warming experiments with GCMs project for the twenty-first century an increase of PRP extremes in many areas of the globe (Wehner, 2004). Future multi-model scenarios employed in the IPCC 4th AR revealed significant negative trends in the annual mean PRP over Iberia (Kharin et al., 2007). The same result was reported by the the project Climate Change in Portugal Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (SIAM, Santos et al, 2002), when comparing projections for made by IPPC AOGCMs, with the recent past climate ( ), for Portugal. Analysing monthly mean PRP, the same result is obtained for all seasons except for winter, which indicates an increase of PRP extreme episodes in winter. GCMs have allowed for a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic global climate change and this led to commensurate developments of mitigation strategies. However, the horizontal resolution of GCMs is much grater than the scale of most precipitating cloud systems. This is especially true of the highly convective storms that often produce extreme values of PRP. In view of the pressing need for regional projections, much effort has been expended in recent years on developing regional projections through diverse methodologies. A review of the different downscaling methods can be found in Wilby and Wigley (1997) and Giorgi et al. (2004), as well in the IPCC Third (Georgi et al., 2001; Mearns et al., 2001) and Fourth (Christensen et al., 2007) ARs. Dynamical downscaling, which consists in nesting a RCM inside a AOGCM, is now considered to have better performances that statistical downscaling techniques (Murphy, 1999). RCMs represent an effective method of adding fine-scale detail to simulated patterns of climate variability and change as they resolve better the local land-surface properties such orography, coasts and vegetation and the internal regional climate variability through their better resolution of atmospheric dynamics and processes (Jones et al., 1995). The SIAM project also analysed the projections of PRP over Portugal performed by IPCC RCMs. The main conclusion was that the accumulated (annual) PRP in moderately rainy days (1-10 mm/day) tends to decrease, whereas heavier rain ( 10 mm/day) is bound to be concentrated in the winter and to become more intense. It was also verified that the amount of PRP per rainy day increases, which may lead to an increase in flooding episodes. In this project we intend to make use of the current understanding of PRP variability and its link to large-scale circulation and circulation weather types, but focusing our study on a great range of types of PRP extreme episodes, and on their PDFs. We note that this has not been studied in detail. Furthermore, our study of future climate will be done using the latest simulations performed with the ENSEMBLES project RCMs, and using our own simulations using the WRF RCM at a spatial resolution higher than that of the

4 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 4 of 13 former RCMs. The study will be also dedicated to determine and understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the climate change of PRP extreme episodes, an issue that is still to be achieved. In order to do so, we will perform a sensitivity modelling study for exploring the role of SST anomalies in the projected changes of the PRP extreme episodes, using CCSM output to drive WRF Plano e Métodos Plan and Methods A multi-model ensemble of twenty five RCM simulations performed by the Research Teams RT3/RT2B of the ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), available on their archive at will be used. The ENSEMBLES project (contract number GOCE-CT ) was supported by the European Commission's 6th Framework Programme as a 5 year Integrated Project from under the Thematic Sub-Priority "Global Change and Ecosystems". These twenty five RCM simulations were performed by fifteen RCMs driven with boundary conditions obtained from simulations performed with five different General Circulation Models (GCMs). The GCMs ran under historic ( ) forcing conditions, and under the A1B scenario ( ) forcing formulated by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The GCM output was then used for boundary conditions to drive the RCMs for a European domain with a horizontal spatial resolution of 25 km and a temporal resolution of 6 hours. Here, we will use daily precipitation (PRP) and mean sea level pressure (SLP) over the IP region for the periods (recent past) and (future). Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from the PRP daily data, we can define a precipitation extreme episode by the pair of threshold values (Dmin, Imin), where Dmin is the minimum number of consecutive days with daily SPI above the Imin value. We consider a great range of episode types according to the preset pair (Dmin, Imin). As an example, an extreme episode type could be defined as a period with three or more days with daily SPI values greater than the 75th percentile. A precipitation episode of a specific type is then characterised by two variables: the number of episodes of that type with a specific duration in days, and the number of episodes of that type with a specific mean intensity (total SPI divided by the duration). Given these variables, which can be considered to be random variables, the climate change is assessed by the changes of their estimated Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The PDFs will be estimated at grid points of particular social and economic importance, such as major cities, and also at grid points representative of the IP sectors with different precipitation regimes (Rodriguez-Puebla et al., 1998; Serrano et al., 1999). The links between the precipitation of each IP sector and the general circulation are explored using Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) classified by an objective circulation classification scheme using the SLP data (Jones et al., 1993; Goodess and Paulikof, 1998; Trigo and DaCamara, 2000; Goodess and Jones, 2002). After determining the CWTs for the recent past and future climates, composites of precipitation extreme episodes for each CWT are built, for each IP sector, and the PDFs defined above are computed again for each composite and for both climates. The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model will be forced by boundary conditions obtained by simulations of the recent past climate ( ) and of a future climate ( ) under the A1B scenario, performed with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), available at The RCM will be run in the IP domain with a higher spatial resolution than the one of the ENSEMBLES RCMs. Then, the precipitation extreme episode analyses done with the ENSEMBLES RCMs data will also be done with the WRF data. For validation purposes the daily gridded observational dataset compiled by the ENSEMBLES RT5 (Haylov et al., 2008), available at will be used. A sensitivity study for exploring the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the projected changes of the PDFs of the precipitation extreme episodes in a particular CWT. After identifying SST anomaly patterns associated with the PDF changes, for each CWT, the atmospheric component of CCSM, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), will be forced by these SST anomalies and the output used to drive the WRF, producing high-resolution patterns of precipitation that can be used to study the forcing mechanisms of the projected changes Tarefas Tasks Lista de tarefas (5) Task list (5) Designação da tarefa Task denomination Data de início Start date Data de fim End date Duração Duration Pessoas * mês Person * months Data peparation and model validation da tarefa e Resultados Esperados Task description and Expected results Download, from of the daily PRP and SLP for the periods (recent past) and (future) for the Iberian Peninsula domain. This data is extracted from eighteen Regional RCM simulations performed by the Research Teams RT3/RT2B of the ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009).<br><br>Download, from of daily PRP and SLP for the period <br><br>Although it has been shown that these RCMs are be able to simulated the observed climate (Jacob et al., 2007), some further tests will be performed focusing on PRP and SLP in the Iberian Peninsula. We will compare to observations not only the simulated climate but also the variability at several time-scales. The analysis will be done for each RCM and for the ensemble-mean of all simulations. It will also be considered weighting the RCMs in the calculation of the ensemble-mean (Cristensen et al., 2009). Membros da equipa de investigação nesta tarefa Members of the research team in this task (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 2; (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 3; Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha; Paulo de Melo Gonçalves; Designação da tarefa Task denomination Data de início Start date Data de fim End date Duração Duration Pessoas * mês Person * months PRP extreme episodes, CWTs and PDFs ,9

5 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 5 of 13 da tarefa e Resultados Esperados Task description and Expected results Computation of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) using daily PRP data for the Iberian Peninsula. Definition of PRP extreme episode type. A PRP extreme episode type is defined by the pair of threshold values (Dmin, Imin), where Dmin is the minimum number of consecutive days with daily SPI above the Imin value. We consider a great range of episode types according to the preset pair (Dmin, Imin). As an example, an extreme episode type could be defined as a period with three or more days with daily SPI values greater than the 75th percentile. A PRP extreme episode of a specific type is then characterised by two variables: the number of episodes of that type with a specific duration in days,, and the number of episodes of that type with a specific mean intensity (total SPI divided by the duration). Determination of the PRP extreme episodes for each episode type. Computation of Circulation Weather Types, using daily SLP data, classified by an objective circulation classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993; Goodess and Paulikof, 1998; Trigo and DaCamara, 2000; Goodess and Jones, 2002). Determination of composites of PRP extreme episodes for each CWT and for each episode type. Computation of the PDFs of the duration and mean intensity of the PRP extreme episodes of each episode type, using all episodes, and using the episodes of each CWT. All the analysis described above will be performed for both and periods, for each IP sector and at the grid points of interest. Membros da equipa de investigação nesta tarefa Members of the research team in this task (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 2; (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 3; Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paulo de Melo Gonçalves; Designação da tarefa Task denomination Data de início Start date Data de fim End date Duração Duration Pessoas * mês Person * months WRF simulations da tarefa e Resultados Esperados Task description and Expected results The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model will be forced by boundary conditions obtained by simulations of the recent past climate ( ) and of a future climate ( ) under the A1B scenario, performed with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), available at The RCM will be run in the IP domain with a higher spatial resolution than the one of the ENSEMBLES RCMs. Validation of the recent past ( ) simulations using the daily gridded observational dataset compiled by the ENSEMBLES RT5 (Haylock et al., 2008), available at Task 2 will be repeated using the WRF output data data. Membros da equipa de investigação nesta tarefa Members of the research team in this task (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 1; (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 2; (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 3; Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paulo de Melo Gonçalves; Designação da tarefa Task denomination Data de início Start date Data de fim End date Duração Duration Pessoas * mês Person * months Idealised Model Experiment ,3 da tarefa e Resultados Esperados Task description and Expected results A sensitivity study for exploring the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the projected changes of the PDFs of the precipitation extreme episodes in a particular CWT. After identifying SST anomaly patterns associated with the PDF changes, for each CWT, the atmospheric component of CCSM, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), will be forced by these SST anomalies and the output used to drive the WRF, producing high-resolution patterns of precipitation that could be can be used to study the forcing mechanisms of the projected changes. Membros da equipa de investigação nesta tarefa Members of the research team in this task (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 1; Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paulo de Melo Gonçalves; Designação da tarefa Task denomination Data de início Start date Data de fim End date Duração Duration Pessoas * mês Person * months Integration of results ,4 da tarefa e Resultados Esperados Task description and Expected results This final task aims an integration of the results from previous tasks. It will include a debate with the consultant in order to settle the most important findings of the project. The task will end with a workshop for public presentation of the project results and a brochure publication, containing the major achievements. Membros da equipa de investigação nesta tarefa Members of the research team in this task Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paulo de Melo Gonçalves; Calendarização e Gestão do Projecto Project Timeline and Management a da Estrutura de Gestão

6 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 6 of a of the Management Structure The management structure of the project has been organized in three main sections: overall management, meetings and reporting, which will be the basis for the successful project management and integration. Overall Management The project will be managed by the University of Aveiro. The research team will be in charge of carrying out the proposed workplan and to support the transfer of knowledge through the discussion and exchange of information and ideas. The Principal Investigator (PI) is responsible for the scientific coordination of the whole project, the monitoring of the budget (costs, purchases and planned expenses), the control of the advances of the project and the coordination of flow of information between the members to support the scientific progress of the project towards the integration of the research results obtained. The PI is also responsible for the promotion of the full involvement of all members and for the guarantee all the established deadlines. The PI is also responsible for the every day project s management monitoring and will be the interface between the FCT and the team members. Meetings Good communication within and between the tasks is essential for the success of the project. The communication includes the prompt circulation of information concerning the project, and the exchange of information about the activities in the tasks. For that, working meetings will be carried out every three months with the team members involved in each Task. The meetings will gather information about the technical progress, results obtained, the compliance with the work programme and all the relevant information at management level (resources, costs and delays). The progress status of each Task will also be discussed to ensure the progress of the work and the achievement of the planned milestones. The three months meetings will also help the PI to identify any difficulties to meet the Task objectives and to design a contingency plan to overcome this situation. Every six months, a general meeting will take place to promote the exchange of information between Tasks on activities performed and results obtained. The first will be a kick-off meeting with the purpose of getting all the research team members together, to schedule the following meetings and plan in more detail the tasks to be performed. The last project meeting will focus on the main results and conclusions of the project aiming to define future research directions in this field. Reporting The reporting section will consider the financial and the technical/research aspects. The financial issues will be dealt by the university Projects Supporting Unity. The activities performed and the results achieved during the project will be published as defined in the indicators section of this proposal, and reported to the FCT following the required guidelines b Lista de Milestones b Milestone List Data Date Designação da milestone Milestone denomination M1 - Task1, 4 Publications and 1 Project Report Task 1 1 Paper in an International Journal 2 Communications in International Meetings 1 Communication in an International Meeting 1 Project Report Data Date Designação da milestone Milestone denomination M2 - Task 2, 6 Publications and 1 Project Report Task 2 2 Papers in International Journals 3 Communications in International Meetings 1 Communications in an International Meeting 1 Project Report Data Date M3 - Task 3 Task 3 All the WRF simulations must be ran. Data Date Designação da milestone Milestone denomination Designação da milestone Milestone denomination M4 - Task 4, 7 Publications, 1 Project Report and 1 MSc Task 4 3 Papers in International Journals 3 Communications in International Meetings 1 Communications in an International Meeting 1 Project Report 1 MSc thesis Data Date Designação da milestone Milestone denomination M5 - Task 5, Final Project Report and 1 MSc

7 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 7 of 13 Task 5 1 Project Report - The final report 1 MSc thesis c Cronograma c Timeline Ficheiro com a designação "timeline.pdf", no 9. Ficheiros Anexos, desta Visão Global (caso exista). File with the name "timeline.pdf" at 9. Attachments (if exists) Referências Bibliográficas 3.3. Bibliographic References Referência Reference Ano Year Linden and Mitchell 2009 Serrano et al Rodriguez-P et al Jones et al Goodess and Paulikof Trigo and DaCamara Goodess and Jones 2002 Haylock et al Jabob et al Cristensen et al Esteban-Parra et al Zhang et al Corte-Real et. al 1998 Ulbrich et al Trenberth 1999 Alexander et al IPCC 2007 Wehner 2004 Kharin et al Santos et al Wilby and Wigley 1997 Publicação Publication van der Linden P., and J.F.B. Mitchell (eds.) 2009: ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. 160pp. Serrano A, Garcia J, Mateos VL, Cancillo ML, Garrido J Monthly modes of variation of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. Journal of Climate 12: Rodriguez-Puebla, C., A. H. Encinas, S. Nieto, and J. Garmendia, 1998: Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 18, Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, and K. R. Briffa, 1993: A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol., 13, Goodess, C. M., and J. P. Palutikof, 1998: Development of daily rainfall scenarios for Southeast Spain using a circulation type approach to downscaling. Int. J. Climatol., 18, Trigo, R. M., and C. C. DaCamara, 2000: Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, Goodess, C. M.,and P. D. Jones, 2002: Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall. Int. J. Climatol.,22, Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, NewM, 2008.AEuropean daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D20119, doi: /2008jd Jacob D, Bärring L, Christensen OB, Christensen JH, de CastroM, DéquéM, Giorgi F, Hagemann S, HirschiM, Jones R, Kjellström E, Lenderink G, Rockel B, Sánchez E, Schär C, Seneviratne SI, Somot S, van Ulden A, van den Hurk B, 2007.An intercomparison of regional climatemodels for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic Change 81 (Supplement 1), Christensen JH, Giorgi F, RummukainenM, 2009.Weighting models based on several RCMspecific metrics: does it work? Climate Research, to be submitted. Esteban-Parra MJ, Rodrigo FS, Castro-Diez Y Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period International Journal of Climatology 18: Zhang, X., X. L. Wang, and J. Corte-Real, 1997: On the relationships between daily circulation patterns and precipitation in Portugal. J. Geophys. Res., 102, Corte-Real, J.,B. Qian, and H. Xu, 1998: Regional climate change in Portugal: Precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int. J. Climatol., 18, Ulbrich, U., M. Christoph, J. G. Pinto, and J. Corte-Real, 1999: Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity. Int. J. Climatol., 19, Trenberth, E. K., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Climatic Change, 42, Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Ambenje P, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05109, DOI: /2005JD Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 18. Wehner, M. F., 2004: Predicted twenty-first-century changes in seasonal extreme precipitation events in the Parallel Climate Model. J. Climate, 17, Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G.C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. J. Climate, 20, Santos, F.D., Forbes, K., and Moita, R. (editors). Climate Change in Portugal. Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures - SIAM Project, Gradiva, Lisbon, Portugal, Wilby, R. L., and T. M. L. Wigley, 1997: Downscaling general circulation model output: A

8 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 8 of 13 Giorgi et al Georgi et al Mearns et al Christensen et al Murphy 1999 Jones et al review of methods and limitations. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I: present day climate ( ). Climate Dynamics 22: Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen J, Hulme M, Von Storch H, Whetton P, Jones R, Mearns L, Fu C Regional climate information: evaluation and projections (Chapter 10). In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; Mearns LO, Hulme M, Carter TR, Leemans R, Lal M, Whetton P Climate scenario development (Chapter 13). In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; Christensen JH, and others: Regional climate projections. In: Chapter 11, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY. Murphy, J. (1999): An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J. Clim, 12, 2256:2284. Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regionalclimate model. 1: assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 121: Publicações Anteriores 3.4. Past Publications Referência Reference Ano Year Santos et al Santos et al Rocha et al Rocha 1999 Antunes et al Equipa de investigação 4. Research team Publicação Publication SANTOS, J. A.; CORTE-REAL, J.; ULBRICH, U.; PALUTIKOF, J. (2007). European Winter Precipitation Extremes and Surface Large-Scale Circulation: a Coupled Model and its Scenarios. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 87 (1-4): SANTOS, J. A.; ANDRADE, C.; CORTE-REAL, J.; LEITE, S. M. (2009). The role of largescale eddies in the occurrence of precipitation deficits in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology. 29 (10): Rocha, A., P. Melo-Gonçalves, C. Marques, J. Ferreira and J.M. Castanheira, 2008: High frequency precipitation changes in southeastern Africa due to anthropogenic forcing. International Journal of Climatology, 28, Rocha, A., Low frequency variability of seasonal rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula and ENSO. International Journal of Climatology (IF2.332). 19, Antunes, S., O. H. Pires e A. Rocha, 2006: Detecting spatio-temporal precipitation variability in Portugal using multichannel singular spectral analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 26, Lista de membros 4.1. Members list Nome Name Função Role Grau académico Academic degree %tempo %time CV nuclear Core CV Alfredo Moreira Caseiro Rocha Inv. Responsável AGREGAÇÃO 25 João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real Investigador AGREGAÇÃO 15 João Carlos Andrade dos Santos Investigador DOUTORAMENTO 15 Maria Solange Mendonça Leite Investigador AGREGAÇÃO 15 Paulo de Melo Gonçalves Investigador DOUTORAMENTO 40 (O curriculum vitae de cada membro da equipa está disponível clicando no nome correspondente) (Curriculum vitae for each research team member is available by clicking on the corresponding name) Total: Lista de membros a contratar durante a execução do projecto 4.2. Members list to hire during project"s execution Membro da equipa Team member Função Role Duração Duration %tempo %time (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 1 Bolseiro (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 2 Bolseiro (BI) Bolseiro de Investigação (Mestre) 3 Bolseiro Total: 3

9 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENTO... Page 9 of Projectos financiados 5. Funded projects (Sem projectos financiados) (No funded projects) 6. Indicadores previstos 6. Expected indicators Indicadores de realização previstos para o projecto Expected output indicators A - Publicações Publications Livros Books Artigos em revistas internacionais Papers in international journals Artigos em revistas nacionais Papers in national journals B - Comunicações Communications Comunicações em encontros científicos internacionais Communications in international meetings Comunicações em encontros científicos nacionais Communications in national meetings C - Relatórios Reports D - Organização de seminários e conferências Organization of seminars and conferences E - Formação avançada Advanced training Teses de Doutoramento PhD theses Teses de Mestrado Master theses Outras Others F - Modelos Models G - Aplicações computacionais Software H - Instalações piloto Pilot plants I - Protótipos laboratoriais Prototypes J - Patentes Patents L - Outros Other Total Acções de divulgação da actividade científica Scientific activity spreading actions (Vazio) (Void) 7. Orçamento 7. Budget Instituição Proponente Principal Contractor Universidade de Aveiro Recursos Humanos Human resources Total 0, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Missões 2.000, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00

10 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENT... Page 10 of 13 Missions Consultores Consultants 0, ,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Aquisição de bens e serviços Service procurement and acquisitions 0, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Registo de patentes Patent registration Adaptação de edifícios e instalações Adaptation of buildings and facilities Gastos gerais Overheads 4.400, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 TOTAL DESPESAS CORRENTES TOTAL CURRENT EXPENSES 6.400, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Equipamento Equipment ,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Total , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Instituições Participantes Participating Institutions Universidade de Évora Total Recursos Humanos Human resources , ,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Missões Missions 1.000, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Consultores Consultants 0,00 0, ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Aquisição de bens e serviços Service procurement and acquisitions 0,00 0, ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Registo de patentes Patent registration Adaptação de edifícios e instalações Adaptation of buildings and facilities Gastos gerais Overheads 3.057, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 TOTAL DESPESAS CORRENTES TOTAL CURRENT EXPENSES , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Equipamento Equipment 1.500,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Total , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro Total Recursos Humanos Human resources , ,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Missões Missions 1.000, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Consultores Consultants 5.000,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Aquisição de bens e serviços Service procurement and acquisitions 0, ,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Registo de patentes Patent registration Adaptação de edifícios e instalações Adaptation of buildings and facilities Gastos gerais Overheads 4.057, ,00 200,00 0,00 0, ,00 TOTAL DESPESAS CORRENTES TOTAL CURRENT EXPENSES , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Equipamento Equipment 1.500,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Total , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Orçamento Global Global budget

11 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENT... Page 11 of Total Recursos Humanos Human resources , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Missões Missions 4.000, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Consultores Consultants 5.000, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Aquisição de bens e serviços Service procurement and acquisitions 0, , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Registo de patentes Patent registration Adaptação de edifícios e instalações Adaptation of buildings and facilities Gastos gerais Overheads , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 TOTAL DESPESAS CORRENTES TOTAL CURRENT EXPENSES , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Equipamento Equipment ,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0, ,00 Total , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 Plano de financiamento Finance plan Financiamento solicitado à FCT Requested funding Financiamento próprio Own funding Outro financiamento público Other public-sector funding Outro financiamento privado Other private funding Total do Projecto Total of the project Total , , ,00 0,00 0, , , , ,00 0,00 0, ,00 8. Justificação do orçamento 8. Budget rationale 8.1. Justificação dos recursos humanos 8.1. Human resources rationale Tipo Type (BI) Bolsa de Investigação (Mestre) 3 Duração (em meses) Duration (in months) Custo envolvido ( ) (calculado) Total cost ( ) (estimated) Nº de pessoas No. of persons Outros custos ( ) Other costs ( ) , ,00 3 MSc. scholarships of 18 month duration, each. The candidates should prepare dissertations on particular aspects of the project: (i) precipitation extreme event analysis (ii) relationship between the weather types and precipitation extreme events; (iii) sensitivity model simulations. Other costs are for social security contributions. The University of Aveiro offers a MSc course on Meteorology and Physical Oceanography and first degree on Meteorology, Oceanography and Geophysics. Candidates may be selected amongst these students Justificação de missões 8.2. Missions rationale Tipo Type Participação em congressos 8 Local Venue To be determined 8.000,00 Presentation of work developed in the course of the project. Nº de deslocações No. of participations Custo envolvido ( ) Tipo Type Nº de deslocações No. of participations

12 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENT... Page 12 of 13 Cursos associados à temática do projecto 2 Local Venue United States of America 4.000,00 Participation in WRF worhshop by two members of the project 8.3. Justificação de consultores 8.3. Consultants rationale Custo envolvido ( ) Nome completo Full name Joaquim José Ginete Werner Pinto Instituição Institution Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne Fase do projecto Project phase Custo ( ) All along research (1 week - 3 years) ,00 An international consultant is needed to support research by providing additional global and regional model data, mainly from the German Consortium COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling - Climate version of the Lokal-Modell), which has been recognized as a distinctive source of high-quality data from atmospheric model runs. The consultant will also have a continuous feedback of the project results in order to improve the dataset, justifying the need for a regular contact throughout the project Página na Internet onde pode ser consultado o CV do consultor Web page where the consultant s CV can be accessed (Vazio) (Void) 8.4. Justificação de aquisição de bens e serviços 8.4. Service procurement and acquisitions Tipo Type Custo ( ) Data analysis and Development of WEB portal 8.000,00 To hire services of graduate students for particular subtasks of the project.to develop a WEB portal to disseminate results obtained in the project. Prepare results with the use of available graphic software (GrADS, NCL VAPOR, Matlab, Python, etc.) and integrate results in the website to be developed. Tipo Type Custo ( ) Consumables and office material 2.000,00 Consumables for computers and office material 8.6. Justificação do Equipamento 8.6. Equipment rationale Equipamento já disponível para a execução do projecto Available equipment Tipo de equipamento Equipment type Fabricante Manufacturer Modelo Model Computers Intel Xeon E GHz Discriminação do equipamento a adquirir New equipment requested Ano Year Tipo de equipamento Equipment type Fabricante Manufacturer Modelo Model Custo ( ) Blades for computer cluste and data Intel Xeon To be determined later ,00 storager As part of the project, we plan to perform various climate simulations in nested mode. This task needs more computer power other than that already installed. We also need to archive large datasets both, downloaded from previous simulations and generated within the project. Tipo de equipamento Fabricante Modelo Custo ( )

13 FCT : PROJECTOS DE INVESTIGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA E DESENVOLVIMENT... Page 13 of 13 Equipment type Manufacturer Model Desktop PC To be determined To be determined 1.500,00 Desktop computer to perform data analysis at the Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro Tipo de equipamento Equipment type (Vazio) (Void) (Vazio) (Void) Fabricante Manufacturer Modelo Model Custo ( ) Desktop PC To be determined To be determined 1.500,00 Desktop computer to perform data analysis at the Universidade de Évora 8.7. Justificação de registo de patentes 8.7. Patent registration 8.8. Justificação de adaptação de edifícios e instalações 8.8. Adaptation of buildings and facilities 9. Ficheiros Anexos 9. Attachments Nome Name CV_eng_ _Consultor.pdf timeline.pdf 14:43:01 Tamanho Size 38Kb 22Kb Financiado por fundos estruturais da UE e fundos nacionais do MCTES