Impacto dos padrões de circulação nos recursos de energia renovável na Ibéria

Transcrição

1 Impacto dos padrões de circulação nos recursos de energia renovável na Ibéria EOLICA HIDRAULICA SOLAR Ricardo Machado Trigo (Univ. Lisboa) Agradecimentos: S. Jerez, D. Pozo-Vázquez, J.P. Montávez, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Santos-Alamillos, R.Lorente-Plazas and J. Lorenzo-Lacruz

2 Sumário 1. Motivação 2. Contexto histórico: o impacto da North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) no clima da Europa. 3. O impacto da NAO nas energias renováveis na Ibéria: Modelação em alta resolução e com dados de produção real. 4. A importância de considerar outros modos de variabilidade climática (EA e SCAN) 5. Conclusões

3 1. Motivation High commitment to renewable energies in Iberia HYDRAULIC WIND SOLAR Since 1950s Mature status Source of ~ 20% (Spain) ~ 30% (Port.) Since 1990s Largest investment in the last 2 decades Source of ~15% (%) Since 2005 Still small contribution Most promising future

4 The influence of the NAO on the European climate NAO+ NAO- SLP (hpa) Trigo et al. (2004)

5 Early studies on NAO influence on Renewables En. NAO+ NAO- NAO+ NAO- (Lopez-Moreno et al., 2007)

6 Early studies of NAO influence on Renewables En. SOLAR ENERGY Pozo-Vazquez et al. (2004) NAO-SOLAR RADIATION CORRELATION (x 10)

7 3. The impact of NAO on Renewable Energies in Iberia (high resolution)

8 Datasets MM5 hindcast simulation 30 km Period: (49 years long) Inputs: ERA40 reanalysis ( ) ECMWF analysis ( ) Spatial resolution: 10 km over Iberia Temporal resolution: hourly 10 km Height (m) Monthly values of the Teleconection indices

9 Precipitation: NAO - minus NAO + composites OCTOBER, ΔPRE NOVEMBER, ΔPRE DECEMBER, ΔPRE JANUARY, ΔPRE FEBRUARY, ΔPRE MARCH, ΔPRE * Differences significant at the 90% confidence interval ** White dots: areas where differences are below one stdev Jerez et al (2013)

10 The impact of NAO on every river basin of Iberia SEGURA GUADALQUIVIR

11 NAO impact on reservoirs GUADALQUIVIR - STORAGES SEGURA - STORAGES NAO- NAO+ NAO- NAO+ * Differences significant at the 90% confidence interval

12 NAO & real hydraulic power generation (46 years) Jerez et al (2013) R = (p < 0.01)

13 10m Wind Speed: NAO - minus NAO + composites OCTOBER, ΔWS10 NOVEMBER, ΔWS10 DECEMBER, ΔWS10 JANUARY, ΔWS10 FEBRUARY, ΔWS10 MARCH, ΔWS10 * Differences significant at the 90% confidence interval

14 But the wind power industry keeps increasing the size of turbine towers

15 NAO impact on Wind Speed at higher altitudes Spatial averages of the NAO-impact on WS: σ1 σ2 σ3 σ4 15% 10% E k = 1 2 ρ WS 3 Spatial averages of the NAO-impact on WS 3 : 60% 40% Jerez et al (2013)

16 NAO & real wind power generation (16 years) Raw WPG Normalized WPG NAO Normalized wind power generation ρ(nwp,nao)=-0.73

17 Solar Radiation: NAO - minus NAO + composites OCTOBER, ΔSR NOVEMBER, ΔSR DECEMBER, ΔSR JANUARY, ΔSR FEBRUARY, ΔSR MARCH, ΔSR * Differences significant at the 90% confidence interval

18 NAO & real solar power generation (6 years only) Normalized Solar Power generation (Annual data. Source: Jerez et al (2013)

19 Sumário do impacto da NAO nas Energias Renováveis na Península Ibérica Precipitação Caudal Energia Hídrica NAO < 0 Nebulosidade Radiação Energia Solar Vento médio Pot. Eólico Energia Eólica

20 4) Can we obtain more information from other large-scale circulation modes?

21 East-Atlantic

22 SCAND

23 Modelling monthly Wind speed (10m) based on NAO+EA+SCAN NAO EA SCAN MLR (EV) J F M

24 Modelling monthly Solar radiation (SWD) based on NAO+EA+SCAN NAO EA SCAN MLR (EV) J F M

25 5. Conclusions 1. Impacto significativo da NAO nas 3 fontes de energia renovável na Ibéria, observando-se: NAO- incremento velocidade do vento e precipitação NAO+ aumento do recurso solar 2. Necessidade de usar modelos regionais em alta resolução que forneçam climatologias regionais longas, homogenias e de alta resolução. Jerez et al (2013, JAMC) 3. Considerar o valor adicional dos restantes modos de variabilidade importantes na região (EA e SCAN para a Ibéria) Jerez and Trigo (2013, ERL)

26 Obrigado S. Jerez and R.M. Trigo (2013). Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula. Environ Res Lett 8, S. Jerez, Trigo R.M. et al. (2013). The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the renewable energy resources in south-western Europe. J Appl Meteorol Clim 52,