TEST FOR EQUALITY OF PARAMETERS AND OF MODELS IN NONLINEAR REGRESSION

Transcrição

1 TEST FOR EQUALITY OF PARAMETERS AND OF MODELS IN NONLINEAR REGRESSION Adair José REGAZZI, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Departamento de Informática, CEP , Viçosa-MG, Brazil. In this paper we consider the adjustment of g nonlinear regression models. We present a framework for testing the following null hypothesis: (a) H 0 : the g nonlinear models are all identical, i.e., one single model can be adjusted; and (b) H 0 : a subset of the parameters from the g models are equal. We illustrate our proposed framework with the logistic growth model. The likelihood ratio test is used and the methodology is very general in the sense that it can be applied to any nonlinear regression model. Key words: likelihood ratio test, nonlinear regression, hypothesis test. EVALUATION OF NON-SEGMENTED POLYNOMIAL TAPER MODELS FOR ESTIMATING COMERCIAL DIAMETERS AND VOLUMES OF Pinus taeda Adriana Leandra de ASSIS, Doutoranda em Engenharia Florestal, Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, alassis@aracruz.com.br; Leonardo Machado PIRES, Mestrando em Engenharia Florestal, Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, lmacpires@ufla.br; Lucas Rezende GOMIDE, Mestrando em Engenharia Florestal, Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, gomide@navinet.com.br; José Roberto Soares SCOLFORO, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, scolforo@ufla.br; Antônio Donizette de OLIVEIRA, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, donizete@ufla.br This study evaluated the precision of non-segmented polynomial models in the description of the arboreal profile of Pinus taeda using 58 cubed trees in the forest company PISA S/A. The precision of the models was obtained according to a statistical ranking. The tested models were HRADETZKY (1976), larger stability; GOULDING and MURRAY, middle; and SCHÖEPFER (1966), tendentious. Key-words: Non-segmented polynomial model, taper models

2 STUDY OF THE Pinus taeda STEM PROFILE USING SEGMENTED POLYNOMIAL TAPER MODELS ADRIANA LEANDRA ASSIS Doutoranda em Engenharia Florestal Florestas de Produção, Universidade Federal de Lavras, LUCAS REZENDE GOMIDE Mestrando em Engenharia Florestal Florestas de Produção, Universidade Federal de Lavras, LEONARDO MACHADO PIRES Mestrando em Engenharia Florestal Florestas de Produção, Universidade Federal de Lavras, PROF. JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Professor titular do Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, PROF. JOSÉ MARCIO DE MELLO Professor do Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, This study aimed at using of segmented polynomial models, to estimate diameters along the stem of Pinus taeda. It was used 58 trees of Pinus taeda, in Jaguariaiva - PR. The best model was Clark, Souter and Schlaegel, followed by Max and Burkhart. The model of Parresol, Hotvedt and Cao was not recommended. Key-words: Segmented polynomial model, taper models, diameters estimates. ESTIMAÇÃO BAYESIANA NA ANÁLISE DE PROPORÇÕES COM EXCESSO DE ZEROS Adriano Ferreti BORGATTO Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, afborgat@carpa.ciagri.usp.br; Clarice Garcia Borges DEMÉTRIO Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, clarice@carpa.ciagri.usp.br; Roseli Aparecida LEANDRO Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, raleandr@carpa.ciagri.usp.br; Three models were applied to datasets, obtained from biological control essays. The standard analysis can be questionable using binomial model, because of zeros excess. In this case, the zero inflated binomial model is used. If interest is only in the positive proportion data, a truncated binomial model can be fitted.

3 MODELS FOR PROGNOSIS OF PRODUCTION USING THE DISTRIBUTION BETA AND S B, FOR Eucalyptus camaldulensis DEHN AGUINALDO THIERSCH, Thiersch Engenharia Ltda., agthiersch@uol.com; CLÁUDIO ROBERTO THIERSCH Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, thiersch@ufla.br; EDMILSON SANTOS CRUZ Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, edmcruz@zipmail.com.br; JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, scolforo@ufla.br The main objectives of this study were to test the distributions Beta and S B for estimating future volume by diameter class. The efficiency was evaluated by the test t, deviation of the prognoses and correlation among predicted and observed volume. The prognosis system was efficient, independent of the age, making it possible reliable forecasts of tendency growth. Key words: prognosis, distribution beta,distribution S B, Eucalyptus camaldulensis INTERFERENCY VARIABLES IN GRAINS YIELD EXPERIMENTAL ERROR CORN ALBERTO CARGNELUTTI FILHO, Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária, albertocargnelutti@fepagro.rs.gov.br; LINDOLFO STORCK, Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, storck@ccr.ufsm.br; ALESSANDRO DAL COL LÚCIO, Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, adlucio@ccr.ufsm.br Using the average and variance of variable income grains, number days until pendoamento, stature plants, stature spikes, number plants and number spikes between six repetitions of two experiments corn, conclude that to cultivate with lesser variance in number of spikes improve the experimental precision of the changeable income of grains. Autor para correspondência: Alberto Cargnelutti Filho, Pesquisador em Estatística/Experimentação Agropecuária FEPAGRO, Rua Gonçalves Dias, 570, Bairro Menino Deus, , Porto Alegre, RS, alberto-cargnelutti@fepagro.rs.gov.br PAPADAKIS METHOD AND THE EXPERIMENTAL PRECISION IN CORN CULTIVARS COMPETITION TRIALS ALBERTO CARGNELUTTI FILHO, Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária,

4 LINDOLFO STORCK, Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, ALESSANDRO DAL COL LÚCIO, Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Verified if method Papadakis is efficient to increase the experimental precision in corn cultivar competition trials. Papadakis method improved the experimental precision from 10.5% to 48.1% in all different ways used to estimate index yield. The four hills neighboring the reference hill was the best index to increase experimental precision. Autor para correspondência: Alberto Cargnelutti Filho, Pesquisador em Estatística/Experimentação Agropecuária FEPAGRO, Rua Gonçalves Dias, 570, Bairro Menino Deus, , Porto Alegre, RS, DETERMINATION OF OPTIMUM TIME OF DRESSING PROCESS OF CENTRELESS GRINDING MACHINES OF RODS OF SHOCK ABSORBERS OF AUTOMOBILES ALESSANDRA QUERINO DA SILVA, UFLA MARCELO SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, UFLA THELMA SÁFADI, UFLA A iming the improvement of the performance of industrial processes, the manufacturing companies are used the Statistical Process Control SPC to control the variability of the process. We propose to determine, scientifically, the optiomum time to dressing process of centreless grinding machines of rods of shock absorbers st the company TECNO. Key Words: Statistical Process Control; Time Series; Qualiity Management. THE OPTIMAL SIZE AND SHAPE OF ITALIAN PUMPKIN PLOT ALESSANDRO DAL COL LÚCIO Departamento de Fitotecnia/CCR/UFSM. RODRIGO MACHADO MELLO Departamento de Fitotecnia/CCR/UFSM.; LINDOLFO STORCK Departamento de Fitotecnia/CCR/UFSM. RICARDO HOWES CARPES Departamento de Fitotecnia/CCR/UFSM. ALEXANDRA AUGUSTIN BOLIGON Departamento de Fitotecnia/CCR/UFSM.

5 With objective of esteeming through the method of Hateway, the size and it forms great of portion for pumpkin cultivated in greenhouse, it was obtained for the station summer-fall and winter-spring, portions of 4 plants (2 in the length and in the width), for D% = 20% and eight repetitions. WORD-KEY: Curcubita pepo, greenhouse, planning of experiments, quality control. AVALUATION OF MAIZE PROGÊNIES TAS THE RESITENCE TO THE PHAEOSPHARIA MAYDIS. ALINE BORGES PETRAGLIA Curso de Matemática Universidade Federal de Uberlândia; HEYDER DINIZ SILVA FAMAT-UFU; ROGÉRIO DE MELO COSTA PINTO FAMAT-UFU MICHELE GONÇALVES PEDROSA Key words: selection. Plant desease, gain. 98 maize progênies was evaluated to the resistence to the Phaeospharia maydis. The herdability of these charactere was The average gain to the selection, adopthing a 25% selection presure was of 39,4% RISK OF PEST RESISTANCE TO BACILLUS THURINGIENSIS TOXINS EXPRESSED IN TRANSGENIC CROPS: INFLUENCE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED TO RESISTANCE ALLELE INITIAL FREQUENCY Aline de Holanda Nunes MAIA, Pesquisadora da Embrapa Meio Ambiente, C. P. 69, Jaguariúna, SP. CEP ; Doutoranda em Fitotecnia, Departamento de Produção Vegetal, ESALQ, Universidade de São Paulo; Bolsista CNPq, aline@esalq.usp.br, Tel. (19) ; Durval DOURADO NETO, Professor do Departamento de Produção Vegetal, ESALQ. Universidade de São Paulo; C. P. 9. Piracicaba, SP , Bolsista CNPq, e- mail: dourado@esalq.usp.br., Tel. (19) We used uncertainty analysis to quantify the risk of pests developing resistance to Bt crops. Risk estimates depend strongly on the shape of the probability distribution used to characterize the uncertainties associated to resistance allele initial frequency. Good information about both location measures and probabilities of extreme values is necessary. Key words: Bt crops, uncertainty analysis, modelling, risk anlysis.

6 INCORPORATION METHODS OF SPATIAL DEPENDENCE IN EXPERIMENTS ANALYSIS ANA ALICE PILON, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, SÔNIA MARIA DE STEFANO PIEDADE, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, PAULO JUSTINIANO RIBEIRO JUNIOR, Departamento de Estatística, UFPR, The present paper searches the comparison among methods which incorporate the spatial dependence in experiments. These methods will assume geostatistics and markovies models. The paper is in process. However, the estimations treatment contrasts from this paper are expected in higher accuracy than estimations from classical analysis. Endereço para correspondência: Sônia Maria De Stefano Piedade, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, Caixa Postal: 9, cep: , SAMPLE SIZE TO AMERICAN LETTUCE CULTIVAR IN PLANTING SUCCEEDED BY MULCHING PLANTS ANASTÁCIA FONTANÉTTI, Pós-graduanda Fitotecnia, Departamento de Agricultura, UFLA, AUGUSTO RAMALHO DE MORAIS, Prof. Depto de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, Caixa Postal:37, Lavras/MG, CEP , GABRIEL JOSÉ DE CARVALHO, Prof. Dr. Departamento de Agricultura, UFLA, The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the different mulching plants on the weight per plant, weight of commercial head and head circunference of the american lettuce cultivar, by the knowledge of variability of such those variables, establish sampling size for guiding works in lettuce. The treatments consist of four mulching. The experimental design was a randomized blocks with three replications. Numbers of replications was more important than the numbers of plants. WORDS KEY: significative least difference, sample size, organic compost

7 DEVELOPEMENT OF AN INSTRUMENT TO EVALUATE THE INHABITS FEEDING OF A POPULATION: AN STUDY IN PIRACICABA SP André Luís PANCIERA, Aluno do Curso de Ciência dos Alimentos e Estagiário do Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ-USP, Caixa Postal 11, Piracicaba/SP, CEP , tthuru@hotmail.com, Tel. 0 XX (19) ; Manoel Divino da MATTA JUNIOR, Aluno do Curso de Ciência dos Alimentos e Estagiário do Depto de Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal 11, Piracicaba/SP, CEP , mdmatta@carpa.ciagri.usp.br.; José Eduardo Corrente, Prof. do Depto de Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal 11, Piracicaba/SP, ESALQ-USP, CEP , jecorren@carpa.ciagri.usp.br, Tel. 0 XX (19) , ext Inhabits feeding of a population has suffered lots of changes in the lasts years and one of the main causes is the intense process of globalization. Then the aim of this work is to develop and evaluate a instrument to identify the most consumed foods breakfast, lunch and dinner considering the great importance of food market for economy. Key word: feeding, tables, evaluate the inhabit feeding AN EVALUATION OF BRAZILIAN AGRO-INDUSTRIES BEHAVIOUR AND ITS PRODUCTS ANDRÉA DA CRUZ LEONEL SALVADOR, Departamento de Indústria IBGE; ALEXANDRE PESSOA BRANDÃO, Departamento de Indústria IBGE; WASMÁLIA S. B. BIVAR, Departamento de Indústria - IBGE This study does have objective to analyse the performance from the Brazilian section agroindustrial and to compare the many sections from the agro-industry. In this case is used the database deriving from the Annual Industrial Research of Brazil of 1998 until 2000 year. The earliest effects show the importance of agro-industry in Brazil, as well as segments that are more importante, such as the tobacco, celulosis, chemicals commodities, among others. Endereço para correspondência: Andrea da Cruz Leonel Salvador, Departamento de Indústria, IBGE, Av. República do Chile, 500, 4º andar CEP , andreadacruz@ibge.gov.br.

8 COMPARISON BETWEEN GROUPS OF EXPERIMENTS IN COMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS AND SQUARE LATTICE DESIGN WITH SOME COMMON TREATMENTS Antônio Carlos de OLIVEIRA, Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, Caixa Postal:151, Sete Lagoas/MG, CEP , oliveira@cnpms.embrapa.br, Tel.0XX(31) The strategy of settling down a group of experiments, with common treatments, and to consider the combined analysis of those experiments, as an alternative to the square lattice design, was evaluated. The results showed that the use of the groups of experiments implicates in the loss of precision of the comparisons among means of treatments that don't belong to a same experiment, and that the relative disadvantage of that procedure grows with the increases the number of used experiments. Index terms : incomplete block designs, augmented designs. ADJUSTMENT OF LACTATION CURVES THROUGH GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS A. COLDEBELLA, C.G.B. DEMÉTRIO, P.F. MACHADO, P.J. RIBEIRO Jr. In this paper we present an alternative for the adjustment of lactation curves based on the incomplete gamma function using the theory of generalized linear models and a form jointly comparison of the parameters and testing of hypothesis of biological interest based on the Schwartz s information criteria. ANALYSIS OF GROWING CURVES THROUGH MIXED MODELS: AN OPTION TO COMPARE FEEDING SYSTEMS FOR OUTDOOR BROILER PRODUCTION A. COLDEBELLA, V.S. de AVILA, E.A.P. de FIGUEIREDO, C. BELLAVER, P.A.R. de BRUM Performance was evaluated for three feeding systems of outdoor broiler production by the adjustment of polynomial mixed models. The best feeding system was on 20, 18 and 16.5% of crude protein in the initial, growing and finishing phases, respectively and 3000 kcal of ME/kg of diet.

9 CRUZAMENTO DIALÉLICO PARCIAL CIRCULANTE INTERPOPULACIONAL NA PREDIÇÃO DE HÍBRIDOS Bruno Grimaldo Martinho CHURATA, Prof. Depto de Estatística, Caixa Postal: 19081, Curitiba/PR, CEP , Tel. 0 XX (41) ; Cosme Damião CRUZ, Prof. Depto de Biologia Geral, UFV, cdcruz@mail.ufv.br, Tel. 0XX (31) The partial circulant diallel cross mating scheme of Kempthorne and Curnow (1961) was adapted for the evaluation of genotypes in crosses at the interpopulation level. Considering a random sample of n lines from base population UFV-F, and that each line is crossed with s lines from opposite population UFV-D, there will be ns sampled crosses that are evaluated experimentally. The means of the ns sampled crosses and the remaining n(n - s) crosses can be predicted by the reduced model Y ˆ = mˆ + g + g. The analysis of variance is performed with the complete model ij i j Yij = µ + gi + gj + sij + e ij, and the sum of squares due to general combining ability were considered for each population separately. Results indicated that the proposed procedure may furnish reliable estimates of means of hybrids not available in the partial diallel. CARACTERIZATION OF VISITORS OF GORILA S PRECINCT IN FUNDAÇÃO ZÔO-BOTÂNICA DE BELO HORIZONTE Carla Blandina Martins RODRIGUES, Profª. Substituta de Biologia, CP-UFMG Centro Pedagógico da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, cablamaro@bol.com.br, Tel. 0xx(31) ; Sérgio Ricardo Silva MAGALHÃES, Prof. Assistente I de Matemática e Estatística, UNINCOR - Universidade Vale do Rio Verde de Três Corações (Campus Betim), CCG-UNA Centro Universitário de Ciências Gerenciais, sergioric@yahoo.com.br, Tel. 0 XX (31) ; Ednaldo Antônio de ANDRADE, Prof. Adjunto de Estatística, CESUR Centro de Estudos Superiores de Rondonópolis, ednaldoantonio@cesur.br, Tel. 0 XX (66) The Fundação Zoo-Botânica de Belo Horizonte (FZB-BH) have preocupation in to develop education pratices with people, proporcioning oppostunities to know and valorizate the life condictions, behavior and vital surroudings of the animals. It s fundamental the knowledge of visitors and your perception about this aspects. It s draw attention the aspects about gorila s

10 visitor: gereral profile, feelings/impressions about gorila, informations haved and the will like of to know. Index Terms: descritive statistic, ambiental education, gorila. LIFE QUALITY IN WORK OF INFORMATIC PROFESSIONALS Carla Blandina Martins RODRIGUES, Profª. Substituta de Biologia, CP-UFMG Centro Pedagógico da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Tel. 0xx(31) ; Sérgio Ricardo Silva MAGALHÃES, Prof. Assistente I de Matemática e Estatística, UNINCOR - Universidade Vale do Rio Verde de Três Corações (Campus Betim), CCG-UNA Centro Universitário de Ciências Gerenciais, sergioric@yahoo.com.br, Tel. 0 XX (31) ; Ednaldo Antônio de ANDRADE, Prof. Adjunto de Estatística, CESUR Centro de Estudos Superiores de Rondonópolis, ednaldoantonio@cesur.br, Tel. 0 XX (66) The life quality in modern site have to improve big people s interest, especially in cientists to look at to improve. Therefore, this work colaborate, seeing that try to mensurate the computer s influence in life quality in work of informatic professionals. Palavras chave: descritive statistic, life quality in work, informatic. A PARAMETRIC APPROACH OF SECRETARY PROBLEM CARLA REGINA GUIMARÃES BRIGHENTI, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, abelha@mgconecta.com.br; LUCAS MONTEIRO CHAVES, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, lucas@ufla.br The present work has as objective to develop a optimal strategy with samples of known distribution. The variables are observed sequentially, and as in the classical secretary problem, exactly one choice is made. The new strategy presented probability equal to the 1/e, considering the quantile ξ p = ln( N ) to exponential distribution using p = (N-1/N). λ Endereço para correspondência: Carla Regina Guimarães Brighenti, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Caixa Postal 37, CEP , abelha@mgconecta.com.br

11 THE USE OF TIME SERIES TO ANALYZE MARKET STOCK PRICES Carlos Armando SONCIN, Aluno do Curso de Economia Agroindustrial, ESALQ - USP e Bolsista PIBIC/CNPq no Depto de Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal 11, Piracicaba, SP, CEP , casoncin@carpa.ciagri.usp.br.; José Eduardo CORRENTE, Prof. Associado do Depto. de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ USP, Caixa Postal 11, Piracicaba, SP, CEP , jecorren@carpa.ciagri.usp.br. Tel. (0xx19) , ext Time series can be seen as a realization of stochastic processes over time. In the stock market these techniques can be applied to get information about the behavior of the historical prices. The aim of this work is to use time series to analyze stock prices of EMBRAER. It was used AR, MA and ARIMA processes to estimate the model. Key words: time series, stock prices, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, auto-regressive models, moving average models, auto-regressive and integrated moving average models. EVALUATION OF QUADRATURES TO OBTAIN BIVARIATE NORMAL DISTRIBUITION PROBABILITIES CARLOS DOS SANTOS, Prof. Ms. Centro de Engenharias e Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal: 861, Foz do Iguaçu/PR, CEP , csantos@unioeste.br, TEL. 0XX(45) ; DANIEL FURTADO FERREIRA, Prof. Dr. Depto de Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal:37, Lavras/MG, CEP , danielff@ufla.br, Tel. 0 XX (35) ; JULIANO FIDELIS, Acadêmico Curso de Licenciatura em Matemática, CEP: , TEL. 0xx(45) ; JÚLIO SILVIO DE SOUSA BUENO FILHO, Prof. Dr. Depto de Ciências Exatas, Caixa Postal:37, Lavras/MG, CEP , Tel. 0XX (35) The objective of that work was it of obtaining probabilities of the bivariate normal distribution function by means of methods of numeric integration. While in Simpson's method, just using 12 intervals for x and y, the mistake was zero, for the trapezes method, with 16 intervals, the mistake was still of

12 MODELING THE GROUND-WATER DEPTH OF A WETLAND AREA IN LAVRAS, MINAS GERAIS STATE, BRAZIL Carlos Rogério de MELLO, Pós-graduando, Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, Caixa Postal 37, Lavras, MG, CEP , crmello@ufla.br, Tel: ; Diego LOPES, Aluno Iniciação Científica, Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, Caixa Postal 37, Lavras, MG, CEP Bolsista da FAPEMIG.; José Maria de LIMA, Prof. Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, Caixa Postal 37, Lavras, MG, CEP , e- mail: jmlima@ufla.br, Tel: Bolsista do CNPq. Wetlands are important agricultural areas in Brazil. Models for predicting the groundwater depths are important tools for management in these areas. This work aimed to adjust mathematical models for predicting ground water depths based on the water balance data, from twelve wells opened over in wetland area and monitoring weekly. Keywords: Modeling, water table, water balance, wetlands, Thiessen Method. DETERMINATION OF THE GENUCHTEN EQUATION PARAMETERS OF A CAMBISSOL FROM LAVRAS, MINAS GERAIS STATE, BRAZIL Carlos Rogério de MELLO, Pós - graduando, Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, Caixa Postal 37, Lavras, MG, CEP , crmello@ufla.br. Tel.: , bolsista CAPES.; Geraldo César de OLIVEIRA, Prof. Setor de Solos, Escola de Agronomia/UFG, Goiânia, GO.; Daniel Furtado FERREIRA, Prof. Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, bolsista CNPq.; José Maria de LIMA, Prof. Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, bolsista CNPq.; Diego LOPES, Aluno Iniciação Científica, Departamento de Ciência do Solo, UFLA, bolsista FAPEMIG. This work aims to model five equations for estimating Genuchten Equation Parameters based on percent of sand, clay, organic matter e bulk density, both of easy determination at laboratory. All equations can be applied because of the good statistical coefficients produced by adjust. Keywords: Cambissol, Genuchten Equation, Irrigation, Soil Moisture.

13 SPACE VARIABILITY OF PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES IN YELLOW RED PODZOLIC CULTIVATED WITH RUBBER TREE Cassiano Garcia Roque, Doutorando do Dpto de Solos e Adubos da UNESP/FCAV, Via de Acesso Paulo Donato Castellane, s/n, CEP Jaboticabal, SP, Brasil, cgroque@fcav.unesp.br, bolsista da FAPESP.; Gener Tadeu Pereira, Prof do Dpto de Ciências Exatas, UNESP/FCAV, genertp@fcav.unesp.br,.; José Frederico Centurion, Prof do Dpto de Solos e Adubos da UNESP/FCAV, jfcentur@fcav.unesp.br. This work had for objective to evaluate the space variability of the porosity and density of the soil of an Yellow Red Podzolic cultivated with rubber tree of the clones PB 235 and RRIM 600, under uniform handling, in located experiment in Novo Horizonte in Sâo Paulo's state. A SIMULATION STUDY FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN POISSON REGRESSION Cecilia Candolo, DEs-UFSCar cecilia@power.ufscar.br In statistical data analysis the inference is carried on without any account to model uncertainty. This work consider the approach of Candolo (2001) who explored the weighted estimator proposed by Buckland et al. (1997) with application to linear regression. Here, we use simulation to study the behaviour of this estimator for Poisson regression with one and two covariates, considering a range of sample sizes and regression parameters. We get similar results for the approachs of Buckland et al. (1997) and Candolo (2001) and in the bootstrap cases the study is not yet conclusive. STUDY AND APPLICATION OF THE R LANGUAGE: OPEN-SOURCE SOFTWARE CECÍLIA SATIE SHIRAIWA Math Department, FCT-UNESP (ceciliashiraiwa@ig.com.br) SÉRGIO MINORU OIKAWA Math Department, FCT-UNESP (smoikawa@prudente.unesp.br) The purpose of this study is to learn more about R language and to divulge it. R is an open source system, what means that source-code is available for inspection or for adaptation. R has

14 many functions for statistical analyses and graphics. It can be downloaded for free in CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR POPULATION MEAN USING RANKED SET SAMPLING Cesar Augusto Taconeli Departamento de Estatística UFSCar; Dra. Maria Cecilia Mendes Barreto Departamento de Estatística UFSCar Ranked set sampling is adequate when the variable of interesting is expensive to measure, but it is possible to the order of possible outcomes. This paper presents a simulation study of the asymptotic properties of the ranked set sample mean estimator and the performance of usual confidence intervals when ranked errors are present for normal and exponential distribution. GROWTH CURVE S ADJUSTMENT IN WEIGHT OF BROILERS UNDER A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH César Gonçalves de LIMA, Professor Dr. Depto. Ciências Básicas, FZEA/USP, Cx. Postal 23, CEP , Pirassununga/SP, e_mail: cegdlima@usp.br, Tel: (19) ; Vivaldo Francisco da CRUZ, Professor Aposentado do Depto. Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, Cx. Postal 9, CEP , Piracicaba/SP The present work had as objective to illustrate the application of the Multivariate Growth Curve Model, considered for Potthoff & Roy (1964), to a data set with repeated measures of weights of broilers, that exhibit a great heterocedasticy of variances over time. The behavior of the average profiles of weight of the broilers (male and female) well was explained by polynomials of second degree and the best adjustment included, as covariates, the referring columns to the polynomials of degrees 3 and 4. The analyses had been carried through using procedures GLM and IML of the SAS (1990).

15 OBTAINING RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTIMATE TREE STEM VOLUME IN A MONTAIN SEMI-DECIDUOUS FOREST CHRISTIAN SORENSEN DE ALMEIDA LIMA Engenheiro Florestal, MSc., Gerente de planejamento da V&M Florestal; EDMILSON SANTOS CRUZ Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, edmcruz@zipmail.com.br; JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, scolforo@ufla.br; ANTÔNIO DONIZETTE DE OLIVEIRA Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, donizete@ufla.br; JOSÉ MÁRCIO DE MELLO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, jmello@esalq.usp.br Volumetric models and form factors were tested for a mountain semi-deciduous forest. The medium form factor and volumetric equations were obtained. The estimated volumes did not differ when using for the form factor or the volumetric equations and the equation for each species presented better efficiency. Key words: volumetric models; form factors IDENTITY OF MODELS FOR SEVERAL GENETIC MATERIALS ENVISAGING SITE CLASSIFICATION CLÁUDIO ROBERTO THIERSCH Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, thiersch@ufla.br; JOSÉ FÁBIO CAMOLESI Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, e- mail: camolesi@uflanet.com.br; JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, scolforo@ufla.br; HONÓRIO KANEGAE JÚNIOR KST Serviços Técnicos Ltda., hkanegae@ksti.com.br This study aimed at applying model identity tests that portray the relationship between the average height of dominant trees and diameter at breast height (DBH) in relation to time as well as building site index curves for groups of Eucalyptus clones using the algebric difference method. It was concluded that the identity of the models was sensitive enough to detect similarities and differences among clones in different management regimes or among clones subject to the same management regime. The Bailey and Clutter polymorphic model showed a better adjustment to the data base used. Key words: models identity, site index, Eucalyptus spp.

16 WOOD BASIC DENSITY AND DRY MATTER WEIGHT PREDICTION AND PROGNOSIS BY DIAMETRIC CLASS, IN Eucalyptus sp. CLONE PLANTATION CLÁUDIO ROBERTO THIERSCH Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, HONÓRIO KANEGAE JÚNIOR KST Serviços Técnicos Ltda., This study aimed at evaluating the use of the pylodin and dendrometric variables in the prediction and prognosis of wood basic density in Eucalyptus sp. clone plantation. The modeling of wood basic density as a function of age, average dominant tree height, total height, diameter and pylodin measures taken at 1.3m of ground, allowed precise and exact prognosis. The system of projection of wood basic density showed to be feasible, precise and exact. Key-words: Pilodyn, modeling of wood basic density, diameter distribution. SISFLOR SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS OF REGRESSION WITH EMPHASIS IN MODELS USED IN FOREST BIOMETRICS CLÁUDIO ROBERTO THIERSCH Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, thiersch@ufla.br; JOSÉ ROBERTO SOARES SCOLFORO Departamento de Ciências Florestais, UFLA, scolforo@ufla.br; MONICA FABIANA BENTO MOREIRA Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, monica@stout.ufla.br The objective of the present work was to develop a software for adjustment and selection of volumetric models. The developed software is easy to use, could be integrated into databases, allowing the adjustment and selection of a great number of volumetric equations in a fast and correct way. Key words: statistical software, volumetric models, regression analysis. EVALUATION OF SUDAAN AND R ON ADDING SAMPLE SCHEME IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS WITH IBGE WAY OF LIFE DATA CLÉBER DA COSTA FIGUEIREDO, Mestrando Depto de Estatística, USP. Rua do Matão 1010, Butantã, São Paulo SP, CEP , figuecl@usp.br, Tel. 0 XX (11)

17 ; MÔNICA CARNEIRO SANDOVAL, Profª Drª Depto de Estatística, USP. Rua do Matão 1010, Butantã, São Paulo SP, CEP , Tel. 0 XX (11) ; DENISE APARECIDA BOTTER, Profª Drª Depto de Estatística, USP. Rua do Matão 1010, Butantã, São Paulo SP, CEP , botter@ime.usp.br, Tel. 0 XX (11) We have studied Linear Regression Models for data analysis when the data set came from a complex survey. We shall consider aspects of the theory and an application utilizing the SUDAAN software and the adac library for R. We shall intend comparing the results that consider the complex survey with those that do not make the same assumption. A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE RELATIVE PRECISION OF VARIANCE ESTIMATORS FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTION USING RANKED SET SAMPLING Clécia Aparecida Garcia, DEs/ UFSCar-São Carlos-SP-Brazil clecia.ap@bol.com.br; Maria Cecilia Mendes Barreto, DEs/UFSCar -São Carlos-SP-Brazil cbarreto@power.ufscar.com.br The performance of variance estimators using ranked set sampling is obtained in a simulation study and compared with the variance of simple random sample for normal populations. The estimator based on best linear unbiased estimation has the better performance for different sample sizes. TÉCNICA PARA DECOMPOSIÇÃO ORTOGONAL DE GRAUS DE LIBERDADE DE TRATAMENTOS UTILIZANDO O PROC GLM DO SAS CRISTIANO NUNES NESI CEPAF/EPAGRI, cristiano@epagri.rct-sc.br ANTONIO AUGUSTO FRANCO GARCIA Departamento de Genética, ESALQ/USP, aafgarci@esalq.usp.br The test F in analysis of variance for sources of variation with more than a degree of freedom provides general information. Therefore, it should be planned objective comparisons, making orthogonal decompositions of the degrees of the treatments. The technique of analysis using

18 dummy variables to facilitate the orthogonal decomposition of degrees of freedom of treatments was proposed. Endereço para correspondência: Cristiano Nunes Nesi, Centro de Pesquisa para Agricultura Familiar CEPAF, Empresa Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina - EPAGRI, Caixa Postal 791, Chapecó/SC, CEP , cristiano@epagri.rct-sc.br PARAMETRIC AND NONPARAMETRIC TESTS IN BMI DATA CRISTINA AYUMI AONO Departamento de Matemática, FCT/UNESP, cris_unesp@yahoo.com.br; EDUARDO CARDOSO DE OLIVEIRA Departamento de Matemática, FCT/UNESP, edcarov@terra.com.br; Mario Hissamitsu TARUMOTO DEPARTAMENTO DE MATEMÁTICA, FCT/UNESP, tarumoto@prudente.unesp.br Parametric and nonparametric tests were applied at BMI data for a 2 nd year of Children School sample. Then the results were compared, objectifying to see what kind of mistakes we can do if we just apply some tests without any knowledge about the normality of data. MULTIVARIATE APPROACH OF THE PHENOTIPIC STABILITY INDEX BASED ON DEVIATIONS OF THE MAXIMUM DANIEL FURTADO FERREIRA PROFESSOR ADJUNTO 4 DO DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS EXATAS DA UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE LAVRAS, BOLSISTA CNPQ, danielff@ufla.br. The present work aimed to obtain the theoretical derivation of the stability and adaptability analysis methods of Lin and Binns (1988 and 1991). Percentage of the interaction effects explained by P i was determined. It was obtained with success the theoretical derivation of the multivariate method of stability and adaptability analysis proposed. Key-words: genotypes x environments interaction, multivariate, deviations of the maximum.

19 AN ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL APPROACH FOR THE VARIANCE EXACT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF A NORMAL POPULATION Daniel Furtado FERREIRA Universidade Federal de Lavras Departamento de Ciências Exatas; danielff@ufla.br; Denismar Alves NOGUEIRA Universidade Federal de Lavras Departamento de Ciências Exatas; denisnog@hotmail.com The variance of a population is an important parameter to be estimate. There are many areas that request precise estimates of the variance. The interval estimate has for purpose to express the precision of estimates of that parameter. This work aimed to present two confidence interval for the normal variance that result from the transformation of Wilson and Hilferty (1931) and from the asymptotic chi-square approach of Bishop, Fienberg and Holland (1975) and to evaluate its performances by means of Monte Carlo simulation using 2000 iterations. The confidence interval based on Wilson and Hilferty (1931) approach showed basically the same accuracy to the exact confidence interval to confidence coefficient varying from 10% to 99.99% and should be recommended for ν > 4; The interval based on the approach of Bishop, Fienberg and Holland (1975) can only be recommended for ν > 30, however the previous interval is considered better; The normal asymptotic interval presented robustness for non normal populations and it can be recommended to estimate variances of those populations in the absence of an exact or more efficient method for the situation in subject; The proposed confidence intervals do not need the estimate of chi-square quantis and present results similar to the exact interval. For great values of ν these methods possess larger accuracy, although in this situation the numerical methods are unstable for obtaining chi-square quantis; the educational value of those approaches should be considered for its uses and recommendations. KEYWORDS: asymptotic approach, chi -square, Monte Carlo, simulation. EFFECT OF THE FRUCTOOLIGOSACCHARIDES OF TUBEROUS YACON ROOT ON BONE MINERALIZATION - A STUDY IN MICE DANIEL KASHIWAMURA SCHEFFER Estatística, Universidade de São Paulo, dscheff@uol.com.br; DANIEL HAYAKAWA KAMO Estatística, Universidade de São Paulo, dahakamo@ig.com.br; RINALDO ARTES Estatística, Universidade de São Paulo, artes@ime.usp.br; ANTONIO CARLOS PEDROSO DE LIMA Estatística, Universidade de São

20 Paulo, ALEXANDRE RODRIGUES LOBO Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade de São Paulo, Researchers want to evaluate a possible Yacon benefit to calcium absorption on bones (femur and tibia) of growing mice. The purpose of this paper is design the researchers study providing information about the selection of experimental units proccess, sample size and suggestion of a suitable method to analyze the data. Endereço para correspondência. Daniel Kashiwamura Scheffer, dscheff@uol.com.br THE CHAID TECHNIQUE LIKE ALTERNATIVE FOR LOGRANK TEST IN SURVIVAL ANALISYS DANIELA MARCHI TIAGO Depto. de Estatística, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, e- mail: danielatiago@bol.com.br; LAEL ALMEIDA DE OLIVEIRA Depto. de Estatística, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, lael_ao@power.ufscar.br The CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection) and Logrank techniques were compared in survival analysis situation. Bootstrap samples were used for Logrank s test and CHAID. Kappa s Coefficient indicated agreement between these techniques. The CHAID found another variables, however CHAID do not use the variable temp as Logrank. SEQUENCE ALIGNMENT IN LINEAR SPACE Deive Ciro de Oliveira Mestrando em Estatística UFLA, deive@comp.ufla.br; Lucas Monteiro Chaves Departamento de Ciências Exatas UFLA, lucas@ufla.br; UFLA Universidade Federal de Lavras (Cx. Postal 37 CEP Lavras - MG) The improvement of technical approaches is a useful tool to minimize the cost of problems resolution. This paper describes the implementation of a Sequence Alignment algorithm that depends on linear advanced data types (array). This algorithm is useful to solve Computational Biology problems. Key-words: Sequence Alignment, Linear Space Complexity, Computational Biology.