Integrated Watershed Management 2015/16. Balance between water availability and water needs

Transcrição

1 Integrated Watershed Management 2015/16 Balance between water availability and water needs

2 Annual flow (dam3) Escoamento anual (dam3) Problem Assume that the domestic uses of persons are to be satisfied from a given water course with the following flow record of annual values. Is it possible? Assuming a net capitation of 150 l/hab/day and an efficiency of 80%, the gross water requirements: Gross capitation = 150/0,8 = 187,5 l/hab/day Daily water needs = 187,5 x = 7,5 dam 3 Monthly water needs = 7,5 x 30 = 225 dam 3 Annual water needs = 7,5 x 365 = 2738 dam 3 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

3 Annual flow (dam3) Escoamento anual (dam3) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Annual flow

4 Annual flow (dam3) Escoamento anual (dam3) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Annual flow ,7 hm3/ano 0

5 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Prob não excedência Probability of non exceedance Empirical distribution of annual flow 5 v (1) < v (2) < v (3) <. < v (n) Plotting position: Weibull = i/(n+1) 1917/18, v /19, v /20, v /21, v /22, v /23, v /24, v /25, v /26, v /27, v /28, v /90, v n 1, v (1), 1/(n+1) 2, v (2), 2/(n+1) 3, v (3), 3/(n+1) 4, v (4), 4/(n+1) 5, v (5), 5/(n+1) 6, v (6), 6/(n+1) 7, v (7), 7/(n+1) 8, v (8), 8/(n+1) 9, v (9), 9/(n+1) 10, v (10), 10/(n+1) 11, v (11), 11/(n+1). n, v (n), n/(n+1) - An empirical estimate of the probability of non-exceedance of a value of order i in a record of n values; If i is small, meaning that the value is one of the smallest in the record, i/(n+1) is close to zero. If i is large, meaning that the value is one of the largest in the record, i/(n+1) is close to one ,7 hm 3 /ano Escoamento anual (dam3) Annual flow (dam3)

6 Minimum monthly flow (dam3) Escoamento mensal (dam3) Out-17 Out-21 Out-25 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Out-29 Out-33 Out-37 Out-41 Out-45 Out-49 Out-53 Out-57 Out-61 Out-65 Out-69 Out-73 Monthly flow Out-77 Out-81 Out-85 Out

7 Empirical distribution of annual minimum monthly flow IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, /18, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /19, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /20, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /21, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /22, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /23, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /24, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /25, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /26, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /27, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /28, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /90, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v n 1, v (1), 1/(n+1) 2, v (2), 2/(n+1) 3, v (3), 3/(n+1) 4, v (4), 4/(n+1) 5, v (5), 5/(n+1) 6, v (6), 6/(n+1) 7, v (7), 7/(n+1) 8, v (8), 8/(n+1) 9, v (9), 9/(n+1) 10, v (10), 10/(n+1) 11, v (11), 11/(n+1). n, v (n), n/(n+1) v (1) < v (2) < v (3) <. < v (n) Plotting position: Weibull i/(n+1)

8 Empirical distribution of annual minimum monthly flow Prob não excedencia Probability of non exceedance 1917/18, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /19, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /20, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /21, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /22, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v /90, Esc. Mensal Mínimo v n 1, v (1), 1/(n+1) 2, v (2), 2/(n+1) 3, v (3), 3/(n+1) 4, v (4), 4/(n+1) 5, v (5), 5/(n+1). n, v (n), n/(n+1) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Escoamento mensal minimo (dam3) 225 dam3/mês Minimum monthly flow (dam3) 8

9 QMD (m3/s) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Average daily discharge

10 Empirical distribution of annual minimum average daily discharge Probability Probablidade of de non não exceedance excedência IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, ,0 QMD mínimo (m3/s) 0, m 3 /dia = 0,1 m 3 /s QMD mínimo (m3/s)

11 What can be done when the available water resources are not sufficient to satisfy water needs? Control water demand; Look for new water sources: Superficial sources; Groundwater sources; Water reuse; Dessalinization. To improve regularization capacity, when the problem is a time missmatch between water availability and water demand. IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

12 Reservoir sizing

13 Water storage needs IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Armazenamento Afluência Reservoirs Aquifers Evaporação Recarga Efluência Reservoirs and aquifers offer the ability to temporarily store water and to phase water availability with water demand. Albufeiras e aquíferos proporcionam uma capacidade de armazenamento temporário da água o que permite a compatibilização temporal das disponibilidade de água com as necessidades.

14 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Reservoir storage zones 14 Inflow Afluências Evaporation Evaporação NMC NPA Nme Flood storage volume / pool Volume de encaixe de cheias Net/useful storage Volume útil Dead storage / Volume morto Uptake/abstraction Captação Discharge Descarga Energy Energia H Turbined flow Volume turbinado

15 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Sizing of flood control zones 15 Inflow NMC NPA Flood storage volume Net volume Discharge Outflow Nme Dead storage Tempo Tempo Flood peak reduction Volume of water temporarily stored in the flood stage pool

16 Sizing of the dead storage zone Dead storage / Volume morto: Volume below the lowest uptake level / Volume abaixo do nível da tomada de água de cota mais baixa Dead storage volume depends on / Dimensão do volume morto depende de: Orography of the reservoir location / Orografia do local de implantação da barragem; Reservoir sediment inflow / Caudal sólido afluente à albufeira; Infrastruture lifetime / Expectativa de vida útil da infraestrutura. NMC NPA Sediment deposition Sediment inflow Nme Dead storage volume Bottom discharge IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

17 Net storage pool sizing What is the adequate size to ensure the supply of various uses with a given reliability? Qual deve ser o valor adequado do volume útil de uma albufeira, para satisfazer um conjunto de usos com uma dada garantia de abastecimento? Oversizing / Excesso de volume útil: Higher investment / Maior volume de investimento; Higher operating costs / Maior custo de operação; Larger environment impacts / Impactos mais significativos ; Undersizing /Défice de volume útil: Inadequate reliability /Insuficiente garantia de abastecimento; A large net storage capacity enables an increase flow regulation capacity / Quanto maior o volume maior a capacidade de regularização das afluências; Regularization coeficient /Coeficiente de regularização: C reg = Net Storage Capacity Annual inflow Creg << 1 Run-of-river reservoirs Creg < 1 Reservoirs Creg > 1 /Reservoirs IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

18 Mass balance Evaporação Captação NMC Volume de encaixe de cheias Descarga NPA Afluências Nme Volume útil Energia H Volume morto Volume turbinado V t+1 = V t + Q t E t R 1 t R 2 t S t Et V t+1 Storage at beginning of month t+1 V t Storage at beginning of month t E t Evaporation (volume) during month t Q t Inflow during month t R 1t Volume supplied to use 1 during month t Qt V R1t R2t St R 2t Volume supplied to use e during month t S t Spilled volume (through the spillway) during month t IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

19 Mathematical simulation Qt Et V R1t R2t St Area-elevation curve Curva de áreas inundadas Water level, H Mass balance: V t+1 = V t + Q t E t R 1 t R 2 t S t Inundated area, A Estimation of evaporation: E t = A t x e t (volume, e.g. dam 3 ) A t - Área of the reservoir lake (e.g. km 2 ) e t Evaporation rate (mm) A = f(v), A = f(h) Area-elevation curve V = f(h), Storage-elevation curve Storage-elevation curve Curva de volumes armazenados Water level, H Stored volume, V IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

20 Elevation-volume-area curves - Alqueva IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

21 Release rules Operating rule for a single use / Regra de operação para um único uso R t = f t (V t +Q t, N t ) Standard operating policy Política padrão R t, S t S t N t R t V t - Storage / Volume armazenado Q t -/ Expected inflow / Volume expectável no período N t Water demand / Necessidade de água K t -Storage capacity / Capacidade de armazenamento R t -Supplied volume / Volume atribuído ao uso S t -Spill / Volume descarregado K t V t +Q t IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

22 Simulation in MS Excel IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

23 Volume Armazenado (dam3) Out-17 Out-20 Out-23 Out-26 Out-29 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Out-32 Out-35 Out-38 Out-41 Out-44 Out-47 Out-50 Out-53 Out-56 Out-59 Out-62 Out-65 Out-68 Out-71 Out-74 Out-77 Out-80 Results Out-83 Out-86 Out

24 Volume Armazenado (dam3) Volume Armazenado (dam3) Out-17 Out-17 Out-20 Out-20 Out-23 Out-23 Out-26 Out-26 Out-29 Out-29 Out-32 Out-32 Out-35 Out-35 Out-38 Out-38 Out-41 Out-41 Out-44 Out-44 Out-47 Out-47 Out-50 Out-50 Out-53 Out-53 Out-56 Out-56 Out-59 Out-59 Out-62 Out-62 Out-65 Out-65 Out-68 Out-68 Out-71 Out-71 Out-74 Out-74 Results Out-77 Out-77 Out-80 Out-80 Out-83 Out-83 Out-86 Out-86 Out-89 Out K = dam 3 N = dam 3 /month K = dam 3 N = dam 3 /month IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

25 Performance indicators Expected benefits ( ) / Benefícios expectáveis ( ); Reliability / Garantia ou fiabilidade; Measures the ability to meet water demands / Mede a capacidade do sistema em satisfazer as necessidades; Time : Reliability_T = #years without supply failures/ #anos simulated years Volume: Reliability_V = Supplied volume/ Water needs Vulnerability / Vulnerabilidade: Measures the severity of supply shortages / Mede a gravidade das falhas Average duration of a supply shortage; Duração média das falhas / Supply shortage as a percentage of the demand; % das necessidades não satisfeitas em caso de falha / Robustness (Inverse of vulnerability) / Robustez (Inverso de vulnerabilidade) Resilience / Resiliência: Measures the ability of the system to recover from a supply shortage / Mede a capacidade do sistema em recuperar de uma falha; Number of months the demand is satisfied that follow a month where a suppply shortahe has ocurred over the number of supply shortages (months when demand was not satisfied). Probabilidade de não existir uma falha após uma falha (número de vezes em que uma não-falha sucede a uma falha sobre o número total de falhas) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

26 Yield vs storage vs reliability vs inflow variability Yield vs Storage capacity vs Reliability / Volume fornecido vs volume da albufeira vs garantia; Em Yield Volume fornecido G3 G2 G1 G1 > G2 > G3 Yield vs Storage capacity vs Inflow variability / Volume fornecido vs volume da albufeira para diferentes variabilidades de escoamento afluente; Em Yield, with a given reliability Volume da albufeira, K Volume fornecido com um dado valor de garantia S3 S2 S1 S1 > S2 > S3 Reservoir capacity, K IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Reservoir capacity, K Volume da albufeira, K 26

27 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Successive peak method 27 Out. 1917, Q1 Nov. 1917, Q2 Dez. 1917, Q3 Jan. 1918, Q4 Fev. 1918, Q5 Mar. 1918, Q6.. Ago. 1990, QM-1 Set. 1990, QM Out. 1917, Q1 Nov. 1917, Q2 Dez. 1917, Q3 Jan. 1918, Q4 Fev. 1918, Q5 Mar. 1918, Q6.. Ago. 1990, QM-1 Set. 1990, QM Out. 1917, Q1, Q1-N Nov. 1917, Q2, Q1+Q2 2N Dez. 1917, Q3, Q1+Q2+Q3 3N Jan. 1918, Q4, Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 4N Fev. 1918, Q5,. Mar. 1918, Q6,... Ago. 1990, QM-1,. Set. 1990, QM... Out. 1917, Q1... Nov. 1917, Q2... Dez. 1917, Q3... Jan. 1918, Q4... Fev. 1918, Q5... Mar. 1918, Q Ago. 1990, QM-1,... Set. 1990, QM,... Mass curve (Rippl diagram) S Qt - S Nt tempo Period when inflow exceeds demand Period when demand exceeds inflow

28 Successive peaks method S Qt - Nt Does not consider evaporation; Assumes demand is satisfied with a 100% reliability. K3 K4 K2 K1 K = Max (K1, K2, Kn) time Drought period (water needs exceed water availability) Period with suficient water (water availability exceed water needs) IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

29 Reservoir operating policies

30 Example IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Consider a reservoir with 300 hm 3 of net storage capacity and with the following inflow regime, that needs to satisfy the following water needs / Considere uma albufeira com 300 hm 3 de capacidade armazenamento útil e com o seguinte regime de afluências e de necessidades de água que devem ser asseguradas: Fall Winter Spring Summer Average inflow(hm3) Coef. of variation of water needs 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 Water needs (hm3) Assumee that the economic losses for not providing water can be estimated by a curve such as the one on the left / Considere ainda que as perdas económicas por falta de abastecimento de água podem ser estimadas por uma curva do seguinte tipo: Perdas económicas (k ) Falha de abastecimento (hm3) If at the end of the Winter the water stored in reservoir is 200 hm 3, how much water should the reservoir supply in the spring? If at the end of the Winter the water stored in reservoir is 100 hm 3, how much water should the reservoir supply in the spring?

31 Problem formulation IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Produção de electricidade Manutenção de ecossistemas Abastecimento urbano Rega Consider the following system which supplies water for different uses / Considere a seguinte albufeira que tem um conjunto diverso de objetivos; How much water should we allocate to each use and how much water should we save for future use? / Num dado instante, qual deve ser o volume de água a atribuir a cada uso e o volume de água a armazenar para usos futuros? This question arises in two contexts: Management how to get the maximum benefit from na existing system; exploração do máximo benefício de um sistema existente; Planning selection of the best alternative (location and size) of a system stil to be built / seleção da melhor alternativa (definição do local e dimensão) a construir.

32 Operating policies What are the factors that condition the allocation of water? Quais são os fatores que devem condicionar a decisão de distribuição dos recursos disponíveis? Available water / Volume de água disponível (i.e. armazenado); Expectations on short term inflows / Expectativas de afluências futuras (dependentes da época do ano); Water demands for each use and/or expected benefits for each use / Necessidades de água para cada uso e/ou função de benefícios expectáveis em função do volume atribuído; How to describe an operating policy? Como explicitar uma política de exploração (i.e. uma regra de operação)?: Rule curves / Curvas guia Release rules (Curvas de alocação) and balancing functions (curvas de balanço) Real-time mathematical models / Modelos matemáticos para gestão em tempo real IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

33 Rule curves Vol armazenado Volume de encaixe de cheias Flood control storage Nivel de pleno armazenamento Satisfação total das necessidades No supply restrictions Restrição parcial das necessidades Curva guia Nível mínimo de exploração Some supply restrictions Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Vol armazenado R=10 R=max R=17 R=17 R=20 R=6 R=8 R=12 R=15 R=17 R=20 R=5 R=8 R=8 Curva guia R=4 R=3 R=2 R=1 R=1 R=1 R Volume of water to be supplied as a function of avaliable storage and time-of-the-year. R=0 Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

34 Release rules Operating rule for a single use / Regra de operação para um único uso R t = f t (V t +Q t, N t ) Standard operating policy Política padrão R t, S t S t N t R t V t - Storage / Volume armazenado Q t -/ Expected inflow / Volume expectável no período N t Water demand / Necessidade de água K t -Storage capacity / Capacidade de armazenamento R t -Supplied volume / Volume atribuído ao uso S t -Spill / Volume descarregado K t V t +Q t IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

35 Hedging O conceito de hedging (salvaguarda; cobertura de risco R t, S t Standard operating policy N t Política padrão R t, S t K t V t +Q t Some hedging: allows for small supply faillures to safeguard future water demands; the reliability decreases N t K t V t +Q t Algum hedging : permite antecipadamente falhas no abastecimento de menor dimensão para salvaguardar o abastecimento no futuro; o nível de garantia (número de falhas em %) é menor. R t, S t More hedging: the reliability decreases further N t Mais hedging ; há mais falhas que são parcialmente evitadas mas o nível de garantia (número de falhas em %) ainda menor. K t V t +Q t N t R t, S t K t V t +Q t Maximizes the reliability: the number of faillures is smaller but when a faillure occurs no water is supplied. Maximiza o nível de garantia: há menos falhas de abastecimento mas quando há são totais. IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

36 Single reservoir: one use Release rule Curva A Fornece toda a água que tem, mesmo quando não é possível satisfazer a totalidade das necessidades. Q V R N R+S K Curva A S R V+Q Curva B R+S Curva B Só fornece quando consegue satisfazer todas as necessidades. N K S R V+Q IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

37 Single reservoir: 2 uses IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Abastecimento urbano R t, S t N t 2 Rega N t 1 Hedging K t V t +Q t

38 Reservoir in series Curva de alocação (release rule) R 1 +R 2 +S 1 +S 2 Q 1 V 1 N Q 2 R 1 K 1 +K 2 V 1 +V 2 +Q 1 +Q 2 V 2 R 2 Curvas de distribuição (balancing functions) V 1,V 2 K V 2 2 K 1 V 1 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 V 1 +V 2 38

39 How to use the release rule and the balancing functions Reservoirs in series IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, We know V 1,t and V 2,t We have and estimation of Q 1,t + Q 2,t V t = V 1,t + V 2,t Release rule: V t + Q 1,t + Q 2,t -> R t V t+1 = V t + Q 1,t + Q 2,t R t V t+1 = V 1,t+1 + V 2,t+1 Balancing functions: V t+1 - > V 1,t+1 V t+1 - > V 2,t+1 R 1,t+1 = V 1,t + Q 1,t S 1,t+1 R 2,t+1 = V 2,t + Q 2,t + R 1,t+1 V 2,t+1

40 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Reservoirs in parallel 40 Curva de alocação (release rule) R 1 +R 2 Q 1 Q 2 N V 1 V 2 K1+K2 V1+V2+Q1+Q2 R 1 R 2 Curvas de distribuição S 1,S 2 K1 V Q 1 1 K2 V Q 2 2 K 1 K 2 S 1 S 2 S 1 +S 2

41 How to apply release rules and balacing curves Reservoirs in parallel IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, V 1,t V 2,t V t = V 1,t + V 2,t V t + Q 1,t + Q 2,t -> R t (curva de alocação; release rule ) V t+1 = V t + Q 1,t + Q 2,t R t V t+1 = V 1,t+1 + V 2,t+1 V t+1 - > V 1,t+1 (curva de distribuição / balanço) V t+1 - > V 2,t+1 (curva de distribuição / balanço) R 1,t+1 = V 1,t + Q 1,t V 1,t+1 R 2,t+1 = V 2,t + Q 2,t V 2,t+1

42 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 Single reservoir for energy production 42 Release rule R+S Q R V E K V+Q When the stored volume is large, a large head is available for power production, which means that the amount of water needed to produce a given amount of energy is small; If the stored volume is small, it is not efficient to waste large amounts of water to produce a small amount of energy.

43 One reservoir and one aquifer: one use Depends on: Q Recarga V2 Relative costs of abstraction, pumping, treatment and transport of water from both sources Evaporation rate (losses of water from superficial sources) V1 R1 R2 Ratio between the reservoir capacity and the reservoir inflow (spill risk during the flooding season) N Hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, namely its recharge, loss by seepage, storage capacity. IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira,

44 IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2015 And if?? 44 Q1 V2 Q2 V3 Q3 For larger and more complex systems, with a number of water sources and several users, how can we evaluate alternative management policies and select most adequate one? V1 R2 V4 V5 R1 Na1 R3 R4 Q4 E Nr1 Na2 R5 V6

45 Exercise IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, A reservoir,with a net storage capacity of 2304 dam 3, stores at the beginning of a given month 1560 dam 3. During that specific month the inflow to the reservoir is 1780 dam 3, the evaporation is 100 dam 3. If m 3 are supplied what is the discharge through the spillway.

46 Exercise IST: Integrated watershed management Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, Consider a reservoir, with a net storage capacity of m 3. At the beginning of a 4-month period the net storage at the reservoir is 900 dam 3 and the expected monthly inflows are 3000 dam 3, 1600 dam 3, 1280 dam 3 and 999 dam 3, after evaporation is deducted. If the monthly water supply target is 1900 dam 3, what is final net storage at the reservoir and what is water supply deficit, if any? How much is discharged through the spillway?