UPPs e a Economia das Favelas. Marcelo Neri Centro de Políticas Sociais Fundação Getulio Vargas

Transcrição

1 UPPs e a Economia das Favelas Marcelo Neri Centro de Políticas Sociais Fundação Getulio Vargas

2 Age Structure Favela is the place of Youth Aglomerado Subnormal Não Especial Youth Potential and Problems: Violence, Prisons, Drugs & Car Crashes SouceCPS/FGV processando os microdados da PNAD/IBGE

3 Population Share % Living in Favelas Rio Neighborhoods Taxa de Moradores em Aglomerados Subnormais Regiões Admnis trativas - Rio de J aneiro Maré Complexo do Alemão J acarézinho Centro % Botafogo Guaratiba Cidade de Deus Rocinha

4 Idade 2,5 Age Structure in Main Rio Favelas 2 1,5 1 0, Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados do Censo das Favelas Youth % 16 to 33 years Rocinha Complexo do Alemão Manguinhos Fonte: CPS/FGV processando os microdados do Censo das Comunidades / Gov. Estado RJ Rocinha Alemão 39,77% 32,75% Rocinha = Young Favela (or Rocinha = Youth 2 = Rio -1

5 Rocinha X Complexo do Alemão Comparisson The two biggest favelas in Rio. The before UPP Lessons: 1) Alemão is Rio s poorest administrative region. Rocinha is richer and located in a richer area best picture of Rio as a broken city (cidade partida) but housing conditions are worst in Rocinha 2) Access to the State (security, public services, health, education etc) is worst in Rocinha. Lowest school attainment and profficiency in Rio. Private sector bias WORK OPPORTUNITIES - QUALITY PERCEPTION 3) Income and Job opportunities are much better in Rocinha. Rocinha Alemão Work and Income Opportunities At least Good 27,82% 8,19% Excellent 1,88% 0,74% 4) Expectations and hope for State intervention were also Fonte: CPS/FGV processando os microdados do Censo das Comunidades / Gov. Estado RJ smaller in Rocinha

6 E d u c a ão M é d ia p o r S u b d i s t r it o - M u n i c íp i o d o R i o d e J an e ir o Mean Years of Schooling by Neighborhoods Fonte: CPS/IBRE/FGV a partir dos microdados do Censo Demográfico/IBGE 2000

7 SP - A Cidade Cercada

8 .. And at night: favela more iluminated than luxury appartments Rio - A Cid ad e Par tid a Rocinha Favela and Gávea an upscale neighborhood in Rio, during the day...

9 UPP IMPACTS: Electricity Effect According to Light eletricity company: Before UPP 66% of energy supply was lost (didn t know were it went) and from the 34% remaining 50% was not paid. Overall before UPP 83% economic loss for Light After UPP this number went down to 15% Investment after UPP in infrastructure to supply and monitor supply and also initiatives of trash recycling prizes to lower energy bills

10 UPP EFFECTS on Small Business n 2012 according to UPPs local sales entrepreneurs (food items (groceries), construcion materials, etc) 23,4% increased flow of clients in their own business 34,1% perceived increased flow of clients in the UPP Good but better for outsiders? 22,1% of micro entrepreneurs increased their flow of client against 33,8% for small entrepreneurs Bigger businesses are doing better? Source: IBPS/ACRJ

11 -1,5% -1,9% -1,2% 2,7% 0,5% 0,3% 4,6% 6,1% (Brasil Metropolitano) ai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 Município do Rio

12 Methodology Diference in Diference g3 = (Treatment After Intervention Treatment Before Intervention ) (Control After Intervention Control Before Intervention ); Diference in Diference Y = g0 + g1*dt + g2*da + (D-D)*dT*dA + other controls As variáveis utilizadas como controle das regressões são: Sexo, Cor, Idade, Educação, Migração (Nativo, Migrante), Unidades da Federação (27 UFs) Densidade Demográfica (Rural, Urbano e Metropolitano), Ano (2001 e 2009). Nesse caso, avaliaremos os impactos em indivíduos com iguais características quanto ao sexo, raça, idade, educação e etc

13 Effect on Rents (De Soto Effect) Comparing houses with identical observable characteristics (materials, number of rooms, bathrooms, access to public services etc): Favela Effect: Rents are 25% lower in favelas than the rest of the city UPP Effect: Rents rose 7,5% more after UPP in favelas (in general 2007 to 2009) Later Claudio Fristack showed similar effects on the value of appartments in the surroundings of UPPs. And also a sharp fall in crime statistics

14 Impacts of UPPs on Math Scores Quarters After Police Ocupation Work with Pedro Butelli e Rafael Borges

15 Impacts of UPPs on Languaje Scores Quarters After Police Ocupation

16 Impacts of UPPs on Science Scores Quarters After Police Ocupation

17 My UPP Morro dos Cabritos

18 Few on going Lessons Territorial not a general equilibrium approach Giving the State and Markets to Favelas Fear of white remotions (remoções brancas) of native population by the market Vertical growth of occupied favelas (Morar Carioca) What are the appropriate transition rules? It is like opening the favela s economy. UPP are necessary conditions UPP Social & State How can local small business compete (Sebrae)? Microcredit Services with private and public sector (Crediamigo 1st move outside Northeast to Rio Favelas) UPP 2 = UPP * Unidades Produtivas Populares, or UPP 3 = UPP * UPP Social * Unidades Produtivas Populares