Black Sea Grain Conference. Kiev, Ukraine

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Walter Castel-Branco Lemos
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1 Black Sea Grain Conference Kiev, Ukraine South American Soybeans and Corn Production and Trading Marcos Rubin April/14

About Agroconsult, visit our website www.agroconsult.

2 About Agroconsult, visit our website Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 12/13

3 Brazil Grain Production (mmt) Last 30 years growth. CAGR 30 years Area (mi ha) Production (mmt) Yields (t/ha) ,4% 6,0 5,5 5,0 4, ,4 3,6 3,4 3,6 99 3,1 82 2,7 2,8 2,9 72 2, ,2 1,8 1,5 1, ,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 2,9% 1,5% Source: CONAB, Forecast Agroconsult.

4 mmt Brazil Grain Production (mmt) Last 30 years growth Others Wheat Rice Corn 2nd Corn 1st Soybeans Source: CONAB, Forecast Agroconsult.

5 Soybeans/Brazil Production (mmt) South Region 21,3 22,9 25,6 28,5 30,7 29,8 16,3 18,2,6 18,4 18,6 13,2 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/ /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Mato Grosso State 27,1 17,9 12,9 15,0 16,7 15,4 17,8 18,0 18,8,4 21,8 23,5 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/ /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Southeast, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul 14,5 13,9 15,6 15,1 15,0 15,1 15,1 17,1 18,0 19,8 19,8 17,5 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/ /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 MAPITOBA (Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia),2 8,4 8,4 3,2 4,6 5,6 6,5 7,2 8,1 5,0 5,1 5,7 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/ /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Weather Instable Area Limited Weather Favorable Area Great Potential Weather Favorable Area Some Potential Weather Instable Area Great Potential Source: CONAB Agroconsult

6 ton / ha mi ha mmt Soybeans/Brazil Supply and Demand Production Consumption Exports ,5 2,82 21,4 23,3 22,7 2,33 2,24 2,42,7 21,3 21,7 23,5 24,2 25,0 2,82 2,82 2,93 3,12 2,63 2,65 27,7 29,8 2,96 2,92 5,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 Area Yields 0 2,00 Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

7 ton / ha mi ha mmt Soybeans/Argentina Supply and Demand Production Consumption Exports ,0 14,4 15,2 16,3 16,4 16,0 12,6 2,71 2,82 2,66 2,82 2,36 2,99 2,00 18,6 18,3 17,6 2,93 2,68 2,28 19,4,5 2,54 2,67 3,80 3,30 2,80 2,30 Area Yields 0 1,80 Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

8 ton / ha mi ha mmt Soybeans/South America(BRA+ARG+PAR+URU) Supply and Demand Production Consumption Exports ,7 2,82 37,6 40,0 40,7 39,8 40,8 40,9 2,85 2,77 2,32 2,40 2,45 2,30 45,7 46,4 46,7 2,88 2,87 2,43 51,3 54,5 2,79 2,80 3,80 3,30 2,80 2,30 Area Yield 0 1,80 Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

Soybeans/South America Production (mmt) vs Climate Risk 86,9 mmt 8,1 mmt 54,5 mmt Region 13/14 Production Probability + / - 7,5% Impact Climate Risk MT State 27,1 mmt 87% +/- 2,0 mmt Lower MS, GO, MG

9 Soybeans/South America Production (mmt) vs Climate Risk 86,9 mmt 8,1 mmt 54,5 mmt Region 13/14 Production Probability + / - 7,5% Impact Climate Risk MT State 27,1 mmt 87% +/- 2,0 mmt Lower MS, GO, MG and SP 19,8 mmt 67% +/- 1,4 mmt Argentina 54,5 mmt 60% +/- 4,0 mmt MAPITOBA 8,8 mmt 47% +/- 0,6 mmt Paraguay 8,1 mmt 27% +/- 0,6 mmt South Brazil 29,8 mmt 27% +/- 2,2 mmt Higher Source: Agroconsult. 13/14 Crop year.

Rally da Safra The Brazilian Crop Tour www.rallydasafra.com.

Araguaína Balsas Uruçuí Cristino Castro LEM C.

Grande Catalão Maracaju Guaíra Chapecó Palmeira das Missões

10 Rally da Safra The Brazilian Crop Tour Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 12/13 Sorriso Sinop Araguaína Balsas Uruçuí Cristino Castro LEM C. Novo Parecis Rondonópolis Nova Mutum Brasília Rio Verde Campo Grande Catalão Maracaju Guaíra Chapecó Palmeira das Missões Cruz Alta Campo Mourão Guarapuava Ponta Grossa Campos Novos Passo Fundo Londrina Curitiba

11 Soybeans and Corn/Brazil Exports Brazilian exports of Soybeans and Corn (mmt) mmt mmt 40 mmt mmt mmt mmt 14* 73 mmt Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2* Q3* Q4* Corn Soy Source: Secex. *Forecast Agroconsult

12 mmt mmt Soybeans /Brazil Production and Exports Forecast (5 years) Soybeans Production (mmt) Soybeans Exports (mmt) Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

13 mmt mmt Corn /Brazil Production and Exports Forecast (5 years) Corn Production (mmt) Corn Exports (mmt) Source: USDA, Forecast Agroconsult.

14 Logistics Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports Producing Regions 13/14 Exporting Ports North, Northeast and Center-West: 89 MMT 56% Itacoatiara (3%) Santarém (3%) Itaqui (5%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 11 MMT 16% Aratu (3%) South and Southeast: 70 MMT 44% Current Ports Vitória (8%) Santos (35%) Paranaguá (18%) São Francisco do Sul (%) Rio Grande (15%) South and Southeast: 55 MMT 84% Source: Secex. Elaborated by Agroconsult

Logistics Main Projects / 5 years 14 Paving of BR-163 from Guarantã do Norte/MT to Santarém/PA +

Highway Railway Waterway City Port 16 Porto Velho Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Estrela d

Itacoatiara Sorriso Querência Miritituba Alô Brasil Ribeirão Cascalheira Rio Verde Estrela d

Francisco do Sul 15 Paving of BR-158 from Alô Brasil/MT to Villa Rica/MT + River Port of

15 Logistics Main Projects / 5 years 14 Paving of BR-163 from Guarantã do Norte/MT to Santarém/PA + River Port of Miritituba/PA + Port of Santana/AP Santarém Santana Vila do Conde Itaqui Legend: Highway Railway Waterway City Port 16 Porto Velho Extension of Norte-Sul Railway to Estrela d Oeste + BR-080 building from BR-158, at Ribeirão Cascalheira/MT, to Uruaçu/GO Production Cluster Itacoatiara Sorriso Querência Miritituba Alô Brasil Ribeirão Cascalheira Rio Verde Estrela d Oeste Marabá Uruaçu Rio Grande Balsas Colinas Unaí Catalão LEM Santos Paranaguá Uruçuí São Francisco do Sul 15 Paving of BR-158 from Alô Brasil/MT to Villa Rica/MT + River Port of Marabá/PA + Port of Vila do Conde/PA Source: DNIT, PAC, VALE, ALL, Ministério dos Transportes. Elaborated by Agroconsult

16 Logistics Brazil Soybeans and Corn Exports Producing Regions 22 Exporting Ports North, Northeast and Center-West: 141 MMT 61% Itacoatiara (4%) Santarém (6%) Santana (5%) Vila do Conde (7%) Itaqui (11%) North, Northeast and Center-West: 46 MMT 39% Aratu (4%) South and Southeast: 89 MMT 39% Current Ports Future Ports (Projects) Rio Grande (7%) Vitória (5%) Santos (26%) Paranaguá (17%) São Francisco do Sul (6%) South and Southeast: 71 MMT 61% Source: Agroconsult

17 Logistics New projects in the MT State (North Region) MT Sorriso Soybeans Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua 6,8 1,8 2,9 1,0 12,5 0,4 0,8 13,7 11,9 Sorriso Santos Paranaguá On Farm Costs Land Rent Dom. Freight Trading/ Operational FOB Waiting Inter. (Oil, Demurrage) Freight CIF - China CIF - China (no land) New Route: BR Port of Miritituba + Port of Santarem or Santana Tapajós / Amazonas Miritituba Santarém BR-163 Santana 6,8 1,8 1,9 1,0 11,5 0,1 Logistics costs: 33% Reduction Logistics costs: 25% Reduction (9%) 0,8 12,4,6 Sorriso On Farm Costs Land Rent Dom. Freight Trading/ Operational FOB Waiting Inter. (Oil, Demurrage) Freight CIF - China CIF - China (no land) Source: Agroconsult

18 Logistics Brazil Competitiveness (Soybeans) CIF Cost to CHINA Comparison of BRA, USA and ARG (USD/bu) With Land Rent 13,7 12,4 12,7 11,8 11,2 Current Future? 12,0? 14,4 14,4 14,6 14,6 MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S. (PNW and Gulf) BR BR BR BR Argentina (Rosario and B. Blanca) Without Land Rent 11,9,6,8 9,9 9,3? 9,5? 9,3 9,3 Current Future 9,9 9,9 MT - Sorriso MT - Canarana MA - Balsas PR - Cascavel U.S. (PNW and Gulf) Argentina (Rosario and B. Blanca) Source: Agroconsult

Soybeans FOB Costs (USD/bu) Compound Average Soybeans CIF Cost : USD 12,4 / bu Lowest CIF Cost Highest < 11,0 USD/bu 11,0 11,5 USD/bu 11,5 12,0 USD/bu 12,0 12,5 USD/bu > 12,5 USD/bu Itacoatiara 12,7

19 Soybeans FOB Costs (USD/bu) Compound Average Soybeans CIF Cost : USD 12,4 / bu Lowest CIF Cost Highest < 11,0 USD/bu 11,0 11,5 USD/bu 11,5 12,0 USD/bu 12,0 12,5 USD/bu > 12,5 USD/bu Itacoatiara 12,7 USD/bu Santarém 13,1 USD/bu Vila do Conde 11,70 USD/bu 12,7 USD/bu 12,0 USD/bu 11,3 USD/bu 12,3 USD/bu Rio Grande Santana Itaqui 11,2 USD/bu 11,0 USD/bu,9 USD/bu 12,5 USD/bu Santos Paranaguá São Francisco do Sul Vitória Aratu Current Ports Future Ports (Projects) Source: Agroconsult.

20 Logistics New projects in the MT State (North Region) MT Sorriso Corn Break Even Cost (USD/bu) Current Routes: Port of Santos and Paranagua 2,7 0,4 5,6 0,4 0,7 6,7 6,4 Sorriso 2,3 0,2 Santos Paranaguá On Farm Costs Land Rent Dom. Freight Trading/ Operational FOB Waiting Inter. (Oil, Demurrage) Freight CIF - Asia CIF - Asia (no land) New Route: BR Port of Miritituba + Port of Santarem or Santana Tapajós / Amazonas Miritituba Santarém BR-163 Sorriso Santana 2,3 0,2 1,8 0,4 Logistics costs: 31% Reduction 4,7 0,1 Logistics costs: 18% Reduction (18%) 0,8 5,5 5,3 On Farm Costs Land Rent Dom. Freight Trading/ Operational FOB Waiting Inter. (Oil, Demurrage) Freight CIF - Asia CIF - Asia (no land) Source: Agroconsult

21 Business Intelligence platform covering all fundamentals of the main agricultural commodities Perspectivas para os Mercados Agrícolas 12/13

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