/ & + 0 * +& 1 3 3.-6 9' $0 :0 6 +4 < ! # 8(>8!??@?AB C D3#/> -6 0: E 8#& #0 3 $ $ < -6 < (> 7!??@?A C 7

!" #$%& $'!( ) * +&,-.+ -

& + 0 * +& 1 2 *#& #3&0 -* 43 0&0$5 *41 4&0-3 3.-6 &0-378*0 9' $0 :0 6 #6;0: '1 +4 < & + 0 * +& 1 '*0 3 *!"#!$##$#! # 8(>8!??@?AB C D3#> -6 0: E 8#& #0 3 $ $? -6+&*# < -6 < (> 7!??@?A C 7 =

@ %&'#GH 1 78+ 1 : #3 & 0"-6 + + '()* ) # 3-6 < IJ 0 :0 $ B 0 :0 145 IJ40 :0 # #6$ B 0 :0 $14 I'3 $3-.*0-.0 :0 B %!-J 0 :0 14 $14@# 0 :0 $1414# 0 G H F @ Matéria Variáveis Endógenas Variáveis exógenas 3.1. Modelo Keynesiano Simples (MKS) PIB real (Y): Consumo Privado (C) Importações (Q) Impostos (T) Investimento (I) Taxa de Juro (i) Nível Geral de Preços (P) Taxa de câmbio Instrumentos de PE 3.2. Modelo IS - LM + I, i P, taxa de câmbio, instrumentos de PE 3.3. + taxa de câmbio P, instrumentos de PE 4. Modelo AD-AS + preços Instrumentos de PE K

@ $14#* 1 M!;*M-. $M3 4 + 5-.6 0 4# 0 $-. +*!;*3M-. *3-6&0 -$M-. -1#" #&;# L @ &' 0(M& -6' (+ & -6'7+ 4644 (+ : (+ - (+!& Cyclical fluctuations (+) cyclical deviation Long-term growth trend Actual real GDP Real GDP (-) cyclical deviation 0 Time N

@ P 1 :0 +&,() $ -60 B 34 0Q & 0 - #-3 $#4#3-.>R$ 3-.3>R(># #<73 3 : +0-2 :0 - (4463 : : 6 % B * +& 36-6* +& ' 3-6 *-.6 3 1 O X(X3 0 ", " S( 0?(J&?($+* TA7A CU V *J 9'* 3 0 $ 3 0" 0 # 0-6 $W 5" &"0 :0* Q ' 0 < V V!+-.,# 7,>!,? 0: E? 0: 6E '#0 #0-6E -61 G&3+ H -6E

()!# *,(, &"0!-#&1!#&'!#&+,&234& V "1&1"1 5&"1&5"5 YM && Z 7 )3W!7 )M 4 J& # D$4 " D ZM3W J& #1$14 56!+7##'#*6 14 0!8- #1"' "916)7#DD# #*0 0 +0,"1 &"-!8- #1"-1!X( ",916)7: (#D7 D# #*0-0 +0! (4 Consumo e Rendimento Real Disponível das Famílias (crescimento anual em %) Área Euro 1973:II - 2003:IV 7.0000 6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 Consumo Rendimento Disponível das Famílias 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000-1.0000-2.0000-3.0000 1973Q2 1974Q2 1975Q2 1976Q2 1977Q2 1978Q2 1979Q2 1980Q2 1981Q2 1982Q2 1983Q2 1984Q2 1985Q2 1986Q2 1987Q2 1988Q2 1989Q2 1990Q2 1991Q2 1992Q2 1993Q2 1994Q2 1995Q2 1996Q2 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2

!X( Função Consumo Representação gráfica!!7y Consumo planeado Y! B A C ;<7α"<8 C 7!?Y 45 0 Y Rendimento DisponívelY!X( Função Poupança Privada Representação gráfica (,'"!8-#1 "1,<; A,";!1"#,=; 1 =

,-6! I F!X( (),- *,(, &"0!-#&ε ε 1!#&()!#&23 0 0 + * # * 3 0 Z-6 0 +,,()M X 'E +>*!M-6E" *#6;4 3 # 6-6 >3+ M3-.603 G3H 0-6 0 &" 0 0 :01 0 K

!X(! J& M & 0 - J& &-6 V "&"?&5"54 V @(!@#"-!5# V J& @Z66 $ # 6-6 78 0 :0 $14 V )7M+ #D$4 " D L!X( ($+* TA7A C! 3-.AC[ C 7 C SY?# $ %&?# 3W #<U# M "1& ;<64 " <!8-#<8 A 7 A SY Z?# $ %& # 3W #<U# M " N

* +& &0 - ('M7!?@??AB C 7?S B *UY#7!?Z?@??A C % &0 ->0 (>1 M (> (3 07!?3 0$& +,>!,? $W 3 0?@?A CM$"=A,. Y(>937('7!?$ 1,>!,? $W 90: 9'?@?A CM() +- "=A,.+- X* +& >#$M1= @ 786E &0-0 *6#!TM1!=;& + +>,B# O * +& &0 - V %6,!,#,(!# 7.,(!.#- 1 V 2 Y3&0-7('&0-7 0: E77 Y7?S *UY# 17\9S?*U]

* +& &0 - Função Despesa Planeada Representação gráfica 7Y Despesa planeada Yeq <!<;# 0 @ B =!=;# Ep 7?S *UY A C ;<7α"!8- #- <8 45 Yeq Y RendimentoY * +& &0 - Função Poupança Representação gráfica ('"08-!8-#31 "5- <!<;# A =!=;# 744 1 Y* 1

* +& &0 - Y*M* +& > Y7 Y^ M* +& > 3&0-7Y^ Y^> ('&0 -Y^! >!M$3&0 -!1=#C,!=;# @# 0W -6 3 & 0 -M - 1! # 0 Q *&#0 *& Y#0 Q -6 -.M_!_8_ C_!#S**D U 78 &,&.,!&#2 Y^ Y*7Y* +&!";&1""# * +& &0-56.()&,.-!$#61" %21"&!=;&1=&@#"= - 1!2# %21"&!<;&1<&#"= 1!2# @!&%D#6 1""!";# =

T* +0 0 < Y " 3-61$14#!40-6$14[ C0 :0 $14 [ $ 0 1# `8#*-.6 Y*# #`Y*7[ 1"D?+ % D? = 8 E 1E=E E A A.()1!#72 F %)6 T>#8Y(># 4##-6 0: E &D< *4' -6#> ^<!& F# T0Y78 Y780!C 780(>78< 780? Y!7()&, (G&F # * +& 3 7# Y77 Desired demand ^ Y The multiplier ( Y G) ( Y9 B G Y A Y* Y E A A Y* Output Y*7α 45 ^ DD 7^?S B *UY DD 7?S B *UY Figure 11.6 K

(+ 2-6 2-63> 2-6 Y Σ Y =Σ 7 Y 7 Y=! C = [NFBU Y = (K Y=F! B C =[NFBUF Y 7F Y=LF < < < <! B C 7 Y = Y7 1"8;;0H;IH8IJH! J#3"!89;JH#K8;;"I;;"I 7() L (+ 2-6 2-63> 2-6 Y Σ Y =Σ Y = Y =! C = [ B *U Y Y = [ B *U Y = {1+ [ B *U]! B C = [ B *U Y Y = [ B *U Y = {1+ [ B *U? + [ B *U ] < < < <! B C = [ B *U Y Y = [ B *U Y = {1+ [ B *U?<... + [ B *U ]!# 1" Σ0!8-# 3 70!8-# 3 ; 9L8-0!8-# 3M 7 "L8908-!8- #3M #;<!8- # <8"=L8908-!8- #3M=8 N

( " 6 4" : 0# & 3 $ 3-6 * +& >M!# 17\9S?*U]#4# Y*97 \9S? *U] 7 1 #!# Y7?S *U Y Y7\9S?*U] O 4 **0-6$14A. < The 45 diagram (*#: #+ N.7O Q 3-6 45 (&(G N.7O )-' NO Desired demand Y A B C Ep,(! 4 1K 4 #.& N.7O"= 0 Y Y Y^^ Output

Y7\9S?*U] Y7\9S??*U] Y7\9$4 34] - -. G34H Q -6 Z6 0 Z +0 Z $+*,-.+ - ; -6 6 4 # $# *& $ 0 0 *Q 3# < Planned Expenditure Ya A 45 B 7Y Ep* Ep Real GDP 1K 1 0 Y Ya Y 0 Time

,-.+ - < + - : 0 1 0"+ - -M M + @# + Z @78 78 Y78! Z78 Y78!78 78 Y78! Z-6 M 78 Y78!78 78 Y78!,-.+ - + -M @# Z1 Y*7\9S?*U] @7\9S?*U] Y*7\9S?*U] Z $ Y*7\Y 9S B?*U] =

,-.+ - @((P!"(# 47) @?Z 47 ) @? Z7 Y? Y @? Z I+ -$ -#* 40-6 I+ - ;-#* -6 78 *0 -. 4# # J& Y78, - 0 $ *N 'BO 'B' D?! & ' #, M 6++0 J& #* -6 0 Z -6$ + @778 4D78 + $9 + 05 $F??77F5*77N F,-.+ - -6M+ - 0_ + @_7_ Z_ 19 79S?*U8 195 79S?*U 3 #&4-6" 4J& *W &'< 4#19!E + E"E 5E# 7B 9S?*U8 "=,A + 9@_ + @_7_ Z_M 7 YB @ Z7 Y @9!E + E"E 5E# 7\SB U9S?*U]=; "=Q( 7# G+ H &# + 0 K

I $-6$ ' 3-.;* $14 78 3-.0* +& 4-6# # *# 4 0 < 34 1 D73 $ -6 3-. -6 0 3-6+ 3-63 " &" 4 + 46 $ - W# *# 3 3 < L Demand Multipliers: Five Examples Years after change 1 2 3 Euro Area 1.43 1.31 0.41 UK 0.75 0.33 0.01 USA 1.05 0.49-0.38 Canada 1.24 0.52-0.17 Japan 1.85 1.58-0.09 The numbers represent the effect of a change in government expenditure of 1% of real GDP in 2000 and 2001 in all five regions on each economy's output (as percentage deviation from baseline) Table 11.1 N

!( )$'# 0 &0-3-6 : 3 3-6 * +& 3-.1 (+ : (+ - @ General macroeconomic equilibrium Goods Market Income influences demand for money Interest rates affect aggregate demand Money Market Real exchange rates affect aggregate demand Foreign Exchange Market Interest rates influence the exchange rate =

@ *0Q,&R%2 < I-6 3 4&< 4 -.$'+0 0 1 1B,B,7 (.+.,(*-,:,( S.(G'!(.+# = )$'# 0 <%D6,9A P, 77 1"α&α"8908-!8- #3 0: 0 :0 #* +*! #4# & +*&",B,7#3+01* 6+0# =

)$'# 0 *" $'* 3-.[!" $'[! 4Y [!" *+ 1 3$'[ = )$'# 0 *" $'[ 39M 3+ & 0 90M 93 1 9;!" $'3-.$'[ '9* +& 3 3!#3 3 3 3-6 -6 + : ==

)$'# 0 TB,B+*U $ ' M -6M 0 0 0 M # #" # 4? : M&: 03 4M 0 0#< 0:.() J $ ' 0 A + * =F )$'# 0! 4Y [,+* 0 4 0$'M * 0 # 3 1 ; # 40-6 1 0' 0 3##3 4 3 9 78'# 0+,. : +* =K

)$'# 0,+*! 0 (4# 0 0M #b '0 :0 +0 0 =L )$'# 0! 4Y [ +* -6 Q 0 # ;$3 I4! RQ+ 4 0 78 #4#$ '# 0! -6 M -6 (4I4! $ 3-0 $ '# # $# 3- - $ 0 $M9&9 =N

&0-3-6 Q& 1 #*6 Y 4M # Y #*00 :0 14# C = C + c(y - ty + R) - ai, a>0 I = I -bi, b>0 ) A = C + cr + I + G + X Q e Ap(i) = - (a + b)i =O &0-3-6 Z-6$'B -64:3 i Ap = A + Ap(i) ( a + b) i A = C + cr + I + G + X Q A Ap F

&0-3-6 Q!# () ;1M *6 Y $#+03-0 $ 0, ;1 & 0 -.$'9 9 # 0 ; #*9 70 F &0-3-6 7V-WM33( 43 >!!3 F

&0-3-6 T* #* +& Y778Y*7α#α 79S?*U )#4#7??Y7? 4# 3+0 $'#;0: 3+0 9 * +& >< F &0-3-6,6 44" '6 01 *4 %&*&,.1"" X,()B + MY7 4:3 M ;1 4:3 M G H. 0 Q *#$&0 - Q #$3&0 - F=

&0-3-6 X-6: < 1" Y7!??@?AB C Y7!?YB?B &?@?AB C?*Y Y7!?YB )?ZB?B &?@?AB C?*Y Y7S!?ZB?B &?@?A CU?S *UY 1"α!! ##&α α =8908 =!8- #3 "089! #3 089! #α31 FF &0-3-6 X-6 4:3 #< @ 7V-YMZ 3;!0;X3 4 FK

&0-3-6 X,6 3 α & -6 αmα^dα 3 & & -6< 3&" 4< ()6 3*** -6 ; ** 3 0*Y7α i i α' < α i 1 i 2 7^? i 1 i 2 α? @ Ap = A+ Ap(i) IS? @ Ap 1 Ap 2 A ^ Ap Ap = Ap 2 - Ap 1 y 1 ' IS' y 1 y 2 y y 2 ' y 1 = α Ap 1 ; y 2 = α Ap 2 ; y = y 2 - y 1 = α Ap y 1 '= α'ap 1 ; y 2 ' = α' Ap 2 ; y' = y 2 ' - y 1 ' = α' Ap FL &0-3-6 X-64:3 #G H< X,<; -6 0 Y* +& >< 78!# 78 78> 78? 0: E780 6-678 - 1 Desired demand DD DD Interest rate i i A A IS Y D Excess demand for goods A A Y7 Y=DD DD ( i ) ^ B i < i DD ( i )! Y Y Output C B Excess supply of goods Y Y Output FN

&0-3-6! " " FO &0-3-6 0 >" +00!! > - 78?!#? 78?? 78(>78 0: E780 6-678 1(> 78?!8? C78 + (> " #* %,:,(G+ *0 +0-64:3 0 %. C 30 : 0* 0 : 3 0 +0-6 4:3 0 K

&0-3-6 X 0. () - i + Ap + Ep EPBS - inv. stocks (Iu>0) + Produção + Y (1) a b (dapdi) Exemplos: 1. Quanto menor b (sensibilidade do investimento à tx. de juro), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que menor será o aumento de Ap); 2. Quanto maior a tx. de imposto (t), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que menor será o aumento de Yd e de Y(2), consequentemente); c (α) t (α) + Y d + C + Ep ( ) + Y (2) ( ) q (α) + Q - Ep ( ) - Y (3) ( ) 3. Quanto maior a sensibilidade das importações ao nível de rendimento (q), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que - Y (3) será superior em valor absoluto); Maior a inclinação da IS K &0-3-6 Desired demand DD DD A B Y=DD Y7 DD @^# ( G,i ) DD@# ( G,i ) ()M3*** -6 ;< $a ` Z *8 ` Y Z 8 ` $ 08 (+ < Interest rate i IS Y IS A Y B Output `@8#`Z8$($ #&% Y Y Output #$ % K

: 3 3-6 T: 3 $4 0 0* -. * 1 M#>)# #-.#& 4-.# 3-6< M -6: : 1 Q $ &: M 03 3 * 5 #-66 3-678 -..'()Q ()()2 0M-6 -+< -6G: H 78* +& 4 3 4* +& 3 ;: K : 3 3-6 (G2 % -. 3-6 0 * 3 +M A P,. '6 '() -6 4 4 0 & -6 4 0 & W ' Q Z M 0&0-0 5,,M " 0" 3-6-< "##*00#, * )-6 3 Q 0:0 4#+ +0 J& # $' 7-6D& 3-6< K=

2!R"!%9# #6' -6 * &3 9' -6 * 2!1#M$0-. 78(,()#R 01!#3 +*!#M -6 *&3 3Q -6 03 ; & 78(,()#R 0!-#3,, ()! #M0 0+* : 3 3-6 3 G4H ;;-. &<! # 3- -. Q )#. 4 + $4 &< "=R 0!#3# 7 # 01 7 "=()%!R#6 R"R01!#&!-#& 3&+JR"RC1 Q"!89Q#!RC1#!89Q#R&C=;&Q=; KF : 3 3-6 Elasticities of real money demand Real income Nominal interest rate Short run Long run Short run Long run Belgium 0.06 0.41-0.50-3.57 Denmark 0.27 1.67-0.30-1.88 Finland 0.64 1.13-0.77-1.57 France 0.10 0.36-0.19-0.70 Germany 0.35 1.19-0.53-1.83 Greece 0.16 1.25-0.13-1.00 Ireland 0.07 1.48-0.45-9.00 Italy 0.11 1.88-0.31-5.17 Netherlands 0.41 0.71-0.86-1.51 Norway 0.09 1.74-0.23-4.60 Portugal 0.18 0.95-0.51-2.68 Sweden 0.49 1.40 Switzerland 0.04 0.36-0.79-7.18 UK 0.12 1.70-0.43-6.14 Japan 0.05 1.76-0.44-6.29 USA 0.06 1.18-0.12-2.40 Unweighted avg. 1.20-3.70 short run = adjustment within one quarter, long run=complete adjustment KK

: 3 3-6 7[-8 );X3#; Z#Z 7[-I 33;X;3X Z3cN#cK#> ; KL : 3 3-6.!% 9# P\A # -6 -.: < &3 0-.4W * &M0T +-.E 6" 401 < : <! -6&? -6 -. : 7%!B# @. " & : >!# -. 78,B,+7&%"% " &"# #B *: & >! (*-63 $(7(#>!&".6 % 9"% 9 KN

: 3 3-6 ()%@(G%B Sector Monetário Sector Não Monetário ( + R x ) Reservas excedentárias (R x ) Crédito concedido ( + CI) ( R x ) Liquidação Reservas legais (+operacionais eou segurança) ( + R l ) (R l ) FUGA para reservas Circulação Monetária ( + C) FUGA para circulação Novos Depósitos ( + DB) KO : 3 3-6 B,R%6 44" '601 *4 B! ##+0-0 :0 $14!% 9"R# X-6: + M!% 9#"R!1&# M i = P = L + ky - hi 1 - h M P L + k h Y L

: 3 3-6 B-,R% X-6: 4:3 M Nominal nterest rate i i Real money supply B A M P Nominal nterest rate C L ( Y,i, c ) L ( Y,i, c) Real 9(# money stock i i @%9 A LM B Excess demand for C money %9@ Y Y Output L : 3 3-6 7[-V X 0 3;!0 L

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* +& 3-.1 < 7 N * +& 3-.1 1" 0 *α D? N

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)$%& #0 $' X 6 & T # 04W $ '" 3 04W M 3 * 6 6 3 " G6*H 3 *# 3 # 9+ 3 Z # &. #)Q+* F )$%& #0 $' X 6 & 67 # *"4&$'# M 0 *4* 3 )),: ) 4#)&&.+*.#*0 66 6304 $' K

)$%& #0 $' X 6 & 3 & 4 6#&*$!9& 4 78-6 0 W 3 ++3* +& $ ( &!) B# # '# 1 >( >( 1 # *# G()9()%$ &! " # #. &: < 9 & 4 3 & 078-6 0 W 3 + +63* +& $ ( " J 1 >(>(1# *#G()9()%$ L )$%& #0 $' X 6 #& * +& $ RQ";M'& -.Y# *4 # "M >!?>!?>, 6: 7 T* #. * +& & " ". ^7#. 3 >, = #>(7 Q'!Q7().&R# 9& $ ;>(7:0 9"3 $ TM@K#G>! H 7>!?>, 6: N

)$%& #0 $' X 6 #& * +& $ T -6. # ;>(7 (),M 1# -.>!?>! 78;0 "3 $ >(7#: >, 6: #'# B 9& $ ;>(7:0 9"3 $ >, T##6" 8 3 * 30# 1$: -6& 3 TM@K#G>! H 7>!?>, 6: O )$%& #0 $' X 6 #& * +& $ >(7 Interest rate >(8 >(D Interest rate >(8 >(D >(7 Interest rate i f >(8 >(D Financial integration line >(7, Output & Output 3 & Output (3 & =

!" #$%& $' )$ %& 4 $ %& )$%& &- )$%& #0 $ ' %-R% & @ +!. &";Q'# \.+, $ &3-6 \.+ j$x: )!#" kf78& 3-6 & & 4 6!. & ";,# \.+,$0 IX \.+ $+ -6 =

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&B * +& 4 (* &, 4 i LM 3 A LIF (BP=0 sob perfeita mobilidade de capitais) IS Y A Y (PIB) =F & B ' (+*&,%-7 i LM i B i f D B C LM LIF IS IS Y D Y B Y C Y (PIB) =K

& B ' (+*&,, 4#!%& 3 $ * +&! R%# $' (> > #Y > >#=. -! F## ^7 X T 3 0 & )() T4 %& 3 $#&>!* 0 3 3 &!F"F# >!$3 0 6 0!%%S$X%$##3 M R% R%F 0-6>!& 3+" # *-6T 4Q -6 $$ 6-6 T 1 1 =L & B ' (+*&,, 4#!%& 3$+0 * +&! R%# $' (> > #Y > >#=. -! F## ^7 X T 3 0 & )() T4 %& 33$+0 #6;: ** 0-6 & ()., "= ().,#&-3 $78, $78 A C78 M F ( 0 +" X#* $$ 6-6 T 1 1 X =N

& B ' (+*&,, 4#>3-6 * +&! R%# $' (> > #Y > >#=. -! F## ^7 X T 3 0 & )() &%$&.,& *"\. *^ :$ -6< *" \.+#': *&" 3-0 *$%& & T)M*& $-3-6& # 6 4 3 * & 6 0 5 $ 0-. 4 *# 3 '#;4 %& 3 $ =O & (+ : (+*&,%& 3 $ \.+6+J S&'&R&Z\2 Monetary policy under fixed exchange rates LM LM %BA $a. Interest rate i f A LIF (BP=0) IS Output F

& (+ : (+*&,%& 3 $ % $#0-6EM>!!(+& '-6R% R%F # -? #<. -! F# +? 0 4 + $? T 2TX T!( 78 T 78! <;& A. +# 6-6 T ) - F,A 6%%$S$X%0 F 0-6>!*$ 6 ^# #* &0-6TD-6 R%F R%! & - 1#& ; F & (+ : (+*&,%& 3 $ BA.'\.+ 78 G H + 1 M 6 " +0 4# % ( & (3 & -6+ : 0 W + & + : OOLON#ZJ > OONOO4 0; I3 F

& (+ : (+*&,%& 3 $ >.: B+!+J&XDD%#!),# LM LM Interest rate i f i f B A Note: M will fall due to forex (ME) sales by central bank. IS Output F & (+ : (+*&,%& 3 $ W 3Q + : $ $#X)!M$# '."= Z5 78 XDD < Z5 -! F# 78(6-6 X 78>!X 0"M!(X2TXIZ78 X 78 R% R%F 5) ' "= 5) X!),# &%& 3 $# 66 ;*$ >B-.$' 6 Q$'" # #. A 7 J# F=

& (+ : (+*&,%& 3$+0 \.+,6+J&A&(&5Z& \2 Interest rate Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates i f A B LM C IS LM Exchange rate depreciates increasing the demand for goods. IS LIF (BP=0) Output FF & (+ : (+*&,%& 3$+0 % $#0-6EM>!!(+& '-6R% R%F # -? #<. -! F# +? 0 4 + $? T 2TXT!(78T78! <;& A. +# 6-6 T ) - F -6 3 0 T ()., %$# & -3 $!-## #7Q,+M F " 14<# ; 1 3 3; %Q!-#()D FK

& (+ : (+*&,%& 3$+0 B.B!B+#\..+,,. +\ 2 l 0 +$ ##' -.&44; 4;& (+ : %& 3 (+ & # 0-6%& 3 $< FL & (+ : (+*&,%& 3$+0 >.: B+!+J&D, Z5#!)7,# Interest rate i f i f A C LM IS IS Output FN

& (+ : (+*&,%& 3$+0 W 3Q + : $ $#3IZM$# >!3 - % Z5 (#? IZ Z5 D < Z5 -! F# >(1D78(6-6 ().,%$ -63 0T#& -3 $!-## #7Q,+M F& >(1 5)' +)A!)7,# & %& 3# -. + * ) : + * A,,( FO & (+ : (+*&,&3-6 (+ : $ #$ 1 2 # ±Fm0X X#±Fm + (.,"=*"\. *$%& B+ ()"= *" \.+#': * & " 3-0 *$%& & K

& (+ - (+*&,%& 3 $ Demand disturbances under fixed exchange rates B LM LM Interest rate 3 A C Financial integration line IS IS Output K & (+ - (+*&,%& 3 $ $ F? Y? ) (#?? 0 4 $ T? X T!(T2TX 78(T78!=;&B,+# 6-6 T) + F,A 6S$X%$%% 0 F 0-6>!*$ 6? ^# #* &0-6T8-6 R% R%F! - & 1#& ; K

& (+ - (+*&,%& 3 $ (.B!B+# \.+& 0 Q 0-6 & E "= >B!.A 7 J#? (...) 1? ) (#? - & - - 1 3 f 4 J& & 0 R&.`7A 3 3; K & (+ - (+*&,%& 3$+0 Demand disturbances under flexible exchange rates LM Interest rate 3 A B C (i) Financial integration line IS (ii) IS Output K=

& (+ - (+*&,%& 3$+0 $ F? Y? ) (#?? 0 4 $ T? X T!(T2TX78(T78! = ;& B, +# 6-6 T) + F -6 3 0 T ()., %$# &-3 $ -!-## #,+M F 14<# ; 1 X()!-#QD KF & (+ - (+*&,%& 3$+0 (A.'\.? (...) 1? ) (#? >(8? ^ -!-# - 1M`7+ 4 0 J& &$ &,#3 f 4" &AC3 3;78 &Y & W G"3 4"H KK

& (+ - (+*&,&3-6 (+ -$ #$# 1 2 # ±Fm )!0 X X#±Fm)! + (.,"=*"\. *$%& :$ -6"=*"\.+#': *& " 3-0 *$%& & KL & B (+ 1 (+*&,, 4MZ +, -., # $ ( % $ ( ) ' * * ( KN

& B (+ 1 (+*I IZ UEM IZ País j LM UEM A Aj Aj IS UEM ISj ISj Y UEM Y Aj Y Aj Y j? @ (Z? (Z? Y (Z? )? KO & B (+ 1 (+*I IZ UEM IZ País j LM UEM A A LM UEM Aj Aj IS UEM ISj ISj Y UEM Y Aj Y Aj Y j? 9()? Y I 5? Y Z 3 ' W 9IZ ^?? Y I? A C Z -6IZ3#$#Q @>( L

& (+ 1 (+4&& 3 : '3 + 1 &4 6!. & ";,# \.+&.+,&3-678F +7!F##F 7# 0 3 6 63 4 0 %+ " 4 $ ' " #6 4# #04W 3 L & (+ 1 (+4&& 3 "; TA?7 >(7 8 A C?7 A $B C?* Y?*?S^?' 3 U7 '7C A?$?*?* Y "!89*#0!--D#!+ I #3! 8 9*#1 Interest rate 3 >(7 * 9' >(7#, ' # $#* #* #'8 ^7 Output L

& (+ 1 (+4&& 3 T& 3 #*$' 3 $'$ 3 # + : 3 %& 3$+0 3 %& 3 $ 3G H + : %& 3 $ + - 3 %& 3 $ 43 : %& 3$+0 0#G"3 4"H $+ -6 L