Fórum de Investidores de Projetos de Infraestrutura 216 Desempenho e Perspectiva para Infraestrutura no Brasil Bernardo Costa Senior Director Global Infrastructure Group 26 de outubro, 216
1 Investimento -25,% -2,% -15,% -1,% -5,%,% 5,% 1,% 15,% 212 T1 212 T2 212 T3 212 T4 213 T1 213 T2 213 T3 213 T4 214 T1 214 T2 214 T3 214 T4 215 T1 215 T2 215 T3 215 T4 216 T1 216 T2 Investimento Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo Source: ipeadata
Produção e Confiança Produção 1,%,% -1,% Importacoes (USD) Exportações Produção Industrial 212 213 214 215 jun/216-2,% -3,% Source: bacen Índices de Confiança Confiança Empresario Industrial Consumo Energia Industrial 3,% 2,% 1,%,% -1,% -2,% -3,% Source: bacen 212 213 214 215 jun/216 set/216 2,% 1,%,% -1,% -2,% -3,% -4,% -5,% -6,% -7,% 2
Economia x Tráfego Variação PIB x ABCR PIB PIB Ind PIB Agro ABCR Cresc. Médio 1,% 8,% 6,% 4,% 2,%,% -2,% 212 213 214 215 jun/216-4,% -6,% -8,% Source: Bacen 3
Taxas e Poder de Compra Inflação e Taxas Juros Reais CDI TJLP IPCA 16,% 12,% 8,% 4,%,% Source: bacen 212 213 214 215 jun/216 jul/216 ago/216 set/216 Poder de Compra Emprego, Renda, e Crédito 15,% Desemprego % Crescimento Renda Real Credito Total 1,% 5,%,% -5,% 212 213 214 215 jun/216 jul/216 ago/216-1,% Source: bacen e PNAD 4
Ações e Perspectivas de Rating Ações de Rating 15 Elevacoes Rebaixamentos Razão (dir.) 8 1 5 Source: Fitch 6 3 12 2 2 2 2 3 213 214 215 out/216 6 4 2 Perspectiva Ratings CCC(bra); 14,3% Positiva; 2,9% Source: Fitch RWN; 2,% Negativo; 5,7% Estavel; 57,1% 5
Brasil x Latam Índice Crescimento PIB Latam Brasil Uruguay Peru Chile Argentina Mexico Colombia 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,,95,9 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Fitch 6
Ativos de Energia - Geração Source: Boletim Informações Gerenciais 2TRI216 - ANEEL 7
Ativos de Energia - Geração Reservatórios Reservatorio NE Reservatorio SE/CO/SUL 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 Source: ONS 14% 15% 5% GSF e PLD GSF PLD 1% 79 729 8% 92% 61 6% 96% 94% 94% 94% 378 413 388 373 87% 4% 85% 89% 88% 86% 79% 227 2% 141 38 82 % jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 Source: CCEE 149 8 6 4 2 8
Geração e Transmissão Source: Boletim Informações Gerenciais 2TRI216 - ANEEL 9
Programa de Parceria de Investimento (PPI) Principais Ativos 4 Aeroportos 2 Rodovias 2 Terminais 3 Ferrovias 3 UHEs Ativos Óleo e Gás Ativos de Mineração Distribuidoras de Energia Distribuidoras Água e Esgoto Financiamento BNDES Aeroportos: 4% Rodovia: 5% Equity Mínimo: 2% Amortização: SAC Prazo Máximo: 15 Anos DSCR Mínimo: 1,3x 1
Estimando o WACC Anterior Financiamento BNDES Debenture Equity Custo de BNDES 7,82% Custo de Debenture 12,89% Custo de Equity (CAPM) 21,5% % Total 7% 1% 2% TJLP 5,5% IPCA 5,5% Risk Free 9,5% Custo 7,82% 12,89% 21,5% Spread 2,2% Spread 7% Retorno de Mercado 17,5% WACC 9,88% Impostos 28% Beta 1,5 Atual Financiamento BNDES Debenture Equity Custo de BNDES 9,86% Custo de Debenture 15,% Custo de Equity (CAPM) 24,5% % Total 5% 3% 2% TJLP 7,5% IPCA 5,5% Risk Free 9,5% Custo 9,86% 15,% 24,5% Spread 2,2% Spread 9% Retorno de Mercado 19,5% WACC 12,98% Impostos 28% Beta 1,5 11
O Mercado Capitais Emissões Debêntures de Infraestrutura 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Source: ANBIMA Volume Numero Emissoes 28 28 22 9 6.116 6.29 4.754 7 4.34 1.563 212 213 214 215 set/216 Alocação/Perfil do Investidor 1% 2% 4% Pessoas Físicas Inst. Financeiras 3 25 2 15 1 5 14% 45% Fundos de Investimento Distribuição Source: ANBIMA 25% Previdencia Outros 12
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