Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum

Transcrição

1 Workshop Economia & Biodiversidade UTAD, Vila Real 24 de Abril, 2016 Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum Lívia Madureira Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD) CETRAD Centro de Estudos Transdisciiplinares para o Desenvolvimento Vila Real, Portugal - lmadurei@utad.pt

2 Apresentação sintetizada do estudo Feasibility Study on the Valuation of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture [PGaE-VALUE] A study Commissioned by: European Commission JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy Available as on-line publication Madureira L., Santos J. L., Ferreira A., Guimarães H., Feasibility Study on the Valuation of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture. Edited by Maria Espinosa e Sergio Gomez y Paloma, European Commission, EUR Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies. EUR Scientific and Technical Research series ISSN (online). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.

3 Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales Agricultural landscapes are specific combinations of: farming systems, woodlands, semi-natural vegetation, rivers, and other non-agricultural elements have specific structure, functioning and processes, and deliver multiple, highly valued goods and services: cultural amenities, biodiversity conservation, water quality and availability, climate stability, resilience to fire, resilience to flooding

4 Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales Agricultural landscapes and the bundles of public goods they deliver are often driven at broad macro-regional scales by changes in agricultural and trade policies; human well-being is thus significantly affected; these welfare impacts are largely not accounted for in policy decision-making at these broad supranational scales. The need to avoid this policy failure led to an increasing demand for the economic valuation of changes in multiple public goods of agriculture at broad, supranational scales.

5 Goals and challenges of a broad-scale valuation methodological framework A framework to value changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad, supranational scales To address this policy demand, the required valuation framework needs to: be empirically-based and policy-relevant (focused on the available policy options at a broad scale) be understandable by the general public of many involved countries whose values are to be surveyed provide context-rich valuation scenarios - essential for people to engage in economic trade-offs, instead of giving symbolic reactions to abstract scenarios

6 Development of the valuation framework (5 steps) Identification, delimitation and description of macroregions (MR) at EU level Data for landscape and farm structure variables (a) Cluster analysis; (b)factorial followed by cluster analysis Describing and mapping PG Search for PG indicators Mapping PG built on indicators at NUT3 level Identifying representative bundle of PG of each macro-region Cross tabling PG with macro-regions Analyzing the PG profile of each macro-region (cobweb diagrams) Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems (MRAEP) Core narratives (valuation context) Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection)

7 Development of the valuation framework Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems Core narratives (valuation context) Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection) Designing choice scenarios at macro-regional scale Selection of representative bundle Which PG are going to be valued related to each selected MRAEP (attributes selection) How to describe them (attributes communication to general public) Changes in PG in each bundle (attributes level)

8 Macro-regions: types of agro-ecological landscape infrastructure delivering different bundles of PG

9 Core PG in each MR

10 MRAEP: How they are they defined? To deliver the valuation contexts and scenarios Delimiting MR; Identifying core the bundle of PG currently delivered by that agroecological infrastructure; Setting the trends, i.e., the expected direction of future change in land use (e.g. farmland abandonment or agricultural intensification) Identifying the expected effects of such change on the delivery of PG in that MR

11 From MRAEP to the choice scenarios for PG change valuation The macro-regional agri-environmental problem defined as valuation problem Correspond to a core dynamic trend in a macro-region Farmland abandonment in the Mediterranean Uplands macro-region This trend entails changes in the provision of core Public goods in the macro-region Cultural services of landscape, farmland biodiversity, soil erosion control and fire resilience Policy-on scenario promotes/avoids changes in the provision level of (some) those PG (that can be valued against a policy-off scenario) Payments for the core public goods (that can be influence by the policy)

12 Example of MRAEP selected for choice modelling survey Survey design for the MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland

13 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes: selection and description farmland in Mediterranean Upland and its benefits to the common-citizen haring

14 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes: selection and description farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland and its losses to the common-citizen

15 Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes: selection and description PG programmes

16 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes levels Attributes levels for MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Programmes ensuring supply of PG, were offered as follow: To pay farmers to maintain: (a) all of these services or; (b) only some of them (e.g., only conservation of landscape or fire risk reduction). (a) to apply each programme in all the region of Mediterranean Uplands (100% of region) or; to apply each programme in only half of the region of Mediterranean Uplands (50% of region).

17 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes levels Attributes levels for MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland

18 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Non-monetary attributes levels Policy-on (reference levels) and policy-off (baseline) levels Applying each programme in 100% of the area of the region will ensure the maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation. Applying each programme in 50% of the area of the region will ensure maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation, but only in 50% of the area in the region.

19 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Monetary attribute Payment vehicle, amounts and duration of payments This cost (programmes implementation costs) have to be support by the European citizens, including you, by higher taxes, or creating special rates on products or about visitors to this region, The amounts, duration of payments and unit that pays Increase in tax payments per household (annually for 5 years)

20 3. Design of Choice Modelling survey Choice set: number of alternatives (baseline and reference levels) MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Example of choice set

21 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Samples MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Three samples for 300 valid interviews each have been selected a) Face-to-face interviews with CAPI (computer assisted personal interviews), carry out in the Metropolitan area of Lisbon (PT) b) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Portugal c) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Germany Criteria for sampling selection: 1. Stratified samples have been selected a) Age, gender b) & c) Age, Gender, NUTS2 2. Individual with 18 years old in charge of household expenses

22 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Samples MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland persons persons Sample composition: Gender FTF Portugal Online Portugal Online Germany Female Male 140 Sample composition: Age FTF Portugal Online Portugal Online Germany >65

23 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Samples MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Sample composition: Education

24 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Samples MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Sample composition: Household Income (monthly in euros)

25 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Preliminary results MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Preliminary estimates for MNL model Basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics) Attribute F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop. area) Estimates for MNL model Web-based Portugal Web-based Germany Cultural landscape (CL) *** *** *** Farmland biodiversity (FB) *** *** *** Soil quality (SQ) *** *** *** Fire resilience (FR) *** *** *** Price (tax increase) *** *** *** Log-Likelihood function No Observations Note:. ***, **, * denote significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level, respectively

26 4. Test survey at pilot scale Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for Preliminary results MRAEP farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland Preliminary estimates for attributes WTP WTP obtained from MNL basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics) Attribute WTP Estimates (basic MNL model) F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop. area) Web-based Portugal Web-based Germany Cultural landscape (CL) [16 29] [21 38] [19-36] Farmland biodiversity (FB) [19-32] [36-58] [34-56] Soil quality (SQ) [18 32] [16 30] [10-24] Fire resilience (FR) [32-50] [27-45] [13 28] Note: Confidence Intervals (95% confidence level) in brackets

27 TAKE HOME MESSAGES Common citizen preferences towards farmland biodiversity and other environmental public goods of agriculture can be obtained for EU programmes at a macro-regional scale The values are obtained based on a choice regarding a change: policy-on vs. policy-off scenario There are challenges on how to communicate those changes to the common citizen Why taking into account the common citizen preferences towards biodiversity and other environmental public good into the funding decisions?

28 OBRIGADA! Lívia Madureira UTAD -Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro DESG Departmento de Economia, Sociologia e Gestão CETRAD Centro de Estudos Transdisciplinares para o Desenvolvimento UTAD/DESG Quinta de Prados, Vila Real, Portugal - lmadurei@utad.pt