Institutionalizing Proactive Drought Policy and Management in Brazil

Institutionalizing Proactive Drought Policy and Management in Brazil Nathan Engle, Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, World Bank & Erwin De Nys, Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank 2014 Symposium: Drought In the Life, Cultures, and Landscapes of the Great Plains Plenary Session 4: The Global Context for Drought in Similar Environments: Case Studies April 3, 2014

World Bank Water and Climate Change in Brazil Lending vs. Knowledge vs. Policy vs. Convening Federal AND state lending and technical assistance Long history and many current programs to strengthen management of water resources at the national and sub-national level Federal Water Resources Management Project (PROAGUA) Low Income Sanitation Technical Assistance Project (PROSANEAR) Ceará Integrated Water Resources Management Project PROGERIRH Ceará Sustainable Rural Development Project and emergency response plans Interaguas to improve the capacity of key government water sector institutions to coherently design and implement water policies and prepare investment plans (including technical exchanges) Climate change adaptation plan Water security strategy

Progress in Brazil Households with Adequate Water Supply in Ceará state, 2000 vs. 2010

World s Drylands While many associate drought principally with the world s drylands, DROUGHT occurs in virtually ALL climate regimes Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Recurrent Droughts Officially 73 year-long or multi-year droughts registered in the Northeast Current in the Northeast since 2012 is the worst in the past 50-100 years Significant losses of cattle and agriculture (heritage breeds, genetic diversity) Likely to get worse in the immediate term and long term

Climate Change Scenarios for Northeast Brazil

Impact on Reservoirs March 2013 Dams with more than 50% of water stored at 10t h of March 2013 Dams with less than 50% of water stored at 10t h of March 2013 Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10 th March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/

Impact on Reservoirs March 2014 Dams with more than 50% of water stored at 25t h of March 2014 Dams with less than 50% of water stored at 25t h of March 2014 Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10 th March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/

Shaping the Institutional and Political Landscapes Extremely dry winter for Southeast Brazil Economic heart of the country Main reservoir system, Cantareira, dropped to below 14% capacity last week; same time last year was at nearly 62% Poor long-term planning for droughts (and growth) in this region São Paulo/Rio de Janeiro water wars? Cupa do Mundo Opportunity to get the attention of decision makers at a nationwide level

World Bank s Approach to DRM

Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness Drought Preparedness

Program s Framework Three Pillars Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments Mitigation and response planning and management Two levels in parallel Level 1 Dialogue on National Drought Policy Level 2 Northeast Regional Pilot Project(s) - Northeast Drought Monitor (MSNE acronym in Portuguese) - Drought Preparedness Plans at multiple scales (river basin committee, cities water supply companies, and rural rainfed agricultural communities) 12

Federal Drought Institutional Mapping Mapeamento Institucional 1. Monitoramento, Previsão e Alerta Precoce Instituições MI MMA MDA MDS MPOG MAPA MCTI BNB MD MME MF Casa Civil ANA INMET INPE EMBRAPA CPTEC INPA CEMADEN Secretaria Geral da Presidênci COMDEC a da República CEDEC SEDEC CENAD ANA BNB geral 2. Avaliação do Impacto, Vulnerabilidade e Resiliência 3. Planejamento e Medidas de Mitigação e Resposta 3a. Planejamento e Medidas de Mitigação (Pré-Emergência) 3b. Planejamento e Medidas de Resposta (Emergência) SUDENE SEDEC MMA geral ANA DNOCS SIH SDR CODEVASF SUDENE ANA MDA geral MPOG SEDEC geral DNOCS CODEVASF CONAB BNB geral MD geral CPRM CHESF MF geral Casa Civil geral Secretaria COMDEC CEDEC Geral (com (com MD e (com MD e Casa Civil) MI) MI) Políticas e medidas específicas MI Grupo de Trabalho Bolsa Estiagem, Operação Carro Pipa Garantia Safra Programa Um Milhão de Cisternas MI Grupo de Trabalho Força Nacional de Emergênci a Comitê Integrado de Combate à Seca 13

National Drought Policy Dialogue Ministry of National Integration leading a series of consultation workshops in the Northeast from in March & April, 2014 11 states (3-4 at time) culminating in a regional seminar in Fortaleza, Ceará Discussing issues such as: 1. Relevance and goals of a national drought policy 2. Functions and responsibilities of various institutions involved in drought management 3. Monitor de Seca do Nordeste (MSNE) and the associated network 4. Financing drought policies and management 5. Drought preparedness plans 6. Measures to mitigate long-term risk and structural issues 7. Drought committees/councils and communicating drought risk and responsesle

INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS AGRICULTURA EMATERS SEC. DE AGRICULTUA MAPA METEOROLOGIA ANA ANA CEMADEN RECURSOS HÍDRICOS CEMADEN INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS CPTEC INMET FUNCEME + CENTROS ESTADUAIS Validação com Atores Locais AGÊNCIAS ESTADUAIS DE ÁGUAS INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS

MSNE is the Anchor (Conversation Starter) Helping to convene a transparent and open forum for the Northeast Develop a process for systematically monitoring, forecasting, and reporting/verifying droughts and their impacts Links with national policy dialogue and the drought preparedness plans A. Planning group B. Validation group C. Dissemination group and network D. Federal, state, and local authorities

MSNE s Role in Institutionalization Feedback Loop Workshops: Build the network, capacity, and excitement/momentum Training: U.S. (NDMC) & Mexico (Conagua/Met Service), March 2014 Institutional and operational designs: Link federal -> regional -> state -> local interests around something tangible to help pave the way for broader reforms (NIDIS-like vision) Robust monitoring and evaluation Next steps: Prototype in June Validation and capacity building phase June-December Operational Monitor in 2015 17

18 MSNE Experimental Map

Drought Preparedness Plans Grounded in the three pillars framework Diverse community types (i.e., river basin planning, urban water management, and rural rainfed agriculture) Operational Illustrate utility and examples of what could be Templates, tools, and methods Benefit-cost analysis of proactive planning for droughts, robust decision making, vulnerability assessments Link with other World Bank programs

Drought Preparedness and Climate Change Resilience nengle@worldbank.org edenys@worldbank.org

Typical Drought Management Se você fizer o que sempre fez, terá os mesmos resultados de sempre Nós DEVEMOS adotar um novo paradigma de gestão da seca! Don Wilhite, University of Nebraska, Lincoln 21