Future Trends: Global Perspective Christian Kjaer Chief Executive Officer European Wind Energy Association Brazil Wind Power 2010 Rio de Janeiro 1 September 2010
Members include the following leading players: A imagem não pode ser exibida. Talv ez o computador não tenha memória suficiente para abrir a imagem ou talv ez ela esteja corrompida. Reinicie o computador e abra o arquiv o nov amente. Se ainda assim aparecer o x v ermelho, poderá ser necessário excluir a imagem e inseri-la nov amente. A imagem não pode ser exibida. Talv ez o computador não tenha memória suficiente para abrir a imagem ou talv ez ela esteja corrompida. Reinicie o computador e abra o arquiv o nov amente. Se ainda assim aparecer o x v ermelho, poderá ser necessário excluir a imagem e inseri-la nov amente. A imagem não pode ser exibida. Talv ez o computador não tenha memória suficiente para abrir a imagem ou talv ez ela esteja corrompida. Reinicie o computador e abra o arquiv o nov amente. Se ainda assim aparecer o x v ermelho, poderá ser necessário excluir a imagem e inseri-la nov amente.
Outline Political commitments Status of wind power and other power sources in the European Union EU Climate and Energy legislation Wind energy scenario to 2030
Global wind and nuclear power capacity - 19 years of annual installations GW 40 Global wind (1991-2009) and nuclear (1961-1979) development GW 180 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year 7 year 8 year 9 year 10 year 11 year 12 year 13 year 14 year 15 year 16 year 17 year 18 year 19 Annual Wind MW 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,7 1,3 1,3 1,5 2,5 3,4 3,8 7,1 6,9 8,3 8,3 11,5 15,1 19,8 26,3 37,5 Annual Nuclear MW 0,0 0,9 0,5 1,0 1,7 1,4 2,1 1,1 3,7 3,5 7,8 8,5 12,0 16,9 9,8 13,5 12,9 15,5 6,9 Total Wind MW 2,0 2,3 2,8 3,5 4,8 6,1 7,6 10,2 13,6 17,4 24,4 31,2 39,4 47,6 59,1 74,1 93,8 120,8 157,9 Total Nuclear MW 0,9 1,8 2,3 3,2 4,0 6,3 8,3 9,3 13,0 19,0 26,6 35,3 46,0 63,3 72,7 86,2 98,7 114,2 120,5 0
Global wind and nuclear power capacity installed (GW) (2000-2009) 40 35 30 Nuclear Wind 25 GW 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Nuclear 3,1 2,7 4,9 1,6 4,8 3,8 1,5 1,9 0 1,1 Wind 3,8 6,5 7,3 8,2 8,2 11,5 15,2 20,1 26,3 37,5 Total 28 148
G20 and EU Commitments Reduce GHG emissions by 80% in 2050 compared to 2005 Living up to that commitment requires zero carbon emissions in the power sector by 2050 the 20% are needed for agriculture, transport etc. No new carbon-emitting power plant can be built after 2020 because of the long lifetime of power stations The politicians have 10 years to keep their 2050 promise
New installed capacity per year in MW and share of renewable energy sources - EU RES 62% RES 21%
Share of new EU power capacity, EU 2009
New installed power capacity and decomissioned capacity in EU 2009
Towards a more flexible power system Net increase in capacity 2000-2009 (EU) Towards a more flexible power system
Annual wind power installation in EU (MW)
EU member state market shares for new capacity installed during 2009. Total 10,163 MW
Cumulative wind power installations MW
EU member state market shares for total installed capacity (2009). Total 74,767 MW
Offshore 2009 installations EU (first half 2010) 201 offshore turbines grid connected (118) 584 MW connected (333 MW) Total number: 830 turbines (948) Total capacity 2,063 MW (2,396 MW) I addition, 151 turbines (440 MW) were installed but not yet grid connected in first half 2010
Offshore wind power
EU Climate and Energy package - adopted unanimously by the 27 EU nations in 2009 20% Reduction in GHG compared to 1990 (30% with an international agreement) 20% Renewable energy share (8.5% in 2005) 34% Renewable electricity share (15% in 2005) 20% Energy efficiency (Not legally binding)
Guiding principles for the EU Regulatory Framework 1. 2009 Renewables Directive Binding renewable targets for 2020 National Renewable Energy Action Plans Guaranteed transmission and distribution of electricity produced from renewables Adequate grid infrastructure must be ensured 2. 3rd Electricity Liberalisation Package Newly established bodies ENTSO-E and ACER Binding cross border rules: Network Codes A first Pan-European Grid Plan: The ENTSO-E 10-Year Network Development Plan These two legislative packages will drive development up to 2020
How Much Wind Power in 2020? European Commission Renewable Energy Roadmap, 2006 12% (180 GW - 9.5 GW / year) Investing in Low Carbon Technologies, 2009 20% (260 GW 16.8 GW / year) EWEA, 2009 14-17% (230 GW 14.1 GW / year) EER, 2009 221 GW (13.2 GW / year) BTM Consult, 2009 312 GW (21.5 GW / year)
EWEA Scenario: Wind capacity and share of EU power demand (1990-2030) sdasdasdasdadsasdasdada 250/150 34.3% 190/40 16.6% 80/3 5.2% 13/0 0.8%
Market forecasts Annual Market Forecasts EU 2009-2013 (MW) EWEA, EER, Make Cosulting, and BTM Consult compared MW 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EWEA 8,484 8,630 9,199 11,001 11,629 12,469 13,394 EER 2009*** 8,000 9,700 10,800 12,200 12,700 13,100 Make 2009** 8,280 9,600 11,445 13,540 15,260 17,825 BTM 2009* 11,075 12,805 14,825 16,655 18,400 18,150
EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan 1990-2007 (MW) Based on: - Existing TSO plans - TradeWind scenarios Added value of plan: - Provides step by step timetable for grid development - Suggested capacities - Integrated with development/concession zones
EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan 1990-2007 (MW) Source: EWEA 2009
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