Index. Electricity Markets Where (and when) Physycs and Economics meet

Transcrição

1 1 Electricity Markets Where (and when) Physycs and Economics meet Jorge Simão Lisbon, April 22th, Index 2 1. Electricity Market The new paradigm 2. Organization of the Portuguese electricity market 3. MIBEL 4. The Electricity Markets Main Concepts Futures Market Transmission Capacity Rights Spot Market System Services Markets

2 3 The New Paradigm Electricity Specificity and Industry 4 LICENCING GENERATION COMPETITION WHOLESALE MARKET TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION NATURAL MONOPOLY REGULATED TPA RETAIL MARKET / LRS SUPPLY COMPETITION / TARIFF CUSTOMER SWITCHING

3 5 COMPETITIVE BISINESSES MARKET-BASED PRICES GENERATORS SRP WHOLESALE MARKET TRANSMISSION & SYSTEM OPERATION RETAILERS LARGE CONSUMERS RETAIL MARKET DISTRIBUTION RETAIL CONSUMERS LAST RESORT TARIFF PHYSICAL SUPPORT ACTIVITIES MONOPOLY/MONOPSONY; REGULATED TARIFFS Electricity Market Pre-Opening 6 Energy Flows Information Flows Economic Flows Note: Lines represent possible interactions in a market environment Produtores TSO Distribuição Consum.

4 Electricity Market New Paradigm 7 OTC (Bilateral) Energy Flows Information Flows Economic Flows Note: Lines represent possible interactions in a market environment Consum. Produtores TSO Comercializ. Distribuição Bolsas Bolsas de Electricidade Europeias 8 Nord Pool Countries with spot and derivatives exchanges Countries with spot exchanges APX / ENDEX Beldex / ENDEX APX ICE EEX Gielda Energii PowerNext OTE Borzen OMIP EXAA OPCOM OMEL GME

5 9 The Portuguese Electricity Market Organisation of the Portuguese Electricity Syste 10 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY SYSTEM (SEN) ENERGY GOVERNMENT DEPT. (DGGE) INDEPENDENT REGULATORY ENTITY (ERSE) REGULATED ELECTRIC SYSTEM MARKET SYSTEM TRANSMISSION System Operator DISTRIBUTION (Wires) LAST RESORT SUPPLIER CUSTOMERS ORDINARY REGIME PRODUCERS MARKET OPERATOR SWITCHING OPERATOR SUPPLIERS CUSTOMERS Special Regime Generators (PRE) SMALL HYDRO (< 10 MVA) OTHER RENEWABLE COGENERATION

6 Electricity Value Chain in Portugal 11 GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION SUPPLY Ordinary regime EDP Produção (CMEC) EDP Produção (TER, other hydro) EDIA Turbogás (via PPAs operator) Tejo Energia (via PPAs operator) Special regime (Feed in tariff) Renewable and waste electricity producers CHP (co-generators) National electricity transmission grid (Very high voltage) Transmissiom System Operator REN Redes Energéticas Nacionais. National electricity distribution grid (HV AND MV) Distribution System Operator EDP Distribuição Low voltage distributors (Municipality concessions) EDP Distribuição Several Cooperatives. Regulated suppliers (Supplier of last resort) EDP SU Consumer Cooperatives Non regulated suppliers EDP Comercial Endesa / Sodesa Iberdrola Union Fenosa Viesgo Others MARKET OPERATION OMIP, OMEL SYSTEM OPERATION REN SWITCHING OPERATOR Commercial Framework 12 SPECIAL REGIME REGULATED SYSTEM MARKET SYSTEM GENERATION ORDINARY REGIME PRODUCERS TRANSMISSION SYST. OPER. DISTRIBUTION (Wires) MARKET OPERATOR Bilateral Contracts Regulator Government Free REGULATED SUPPLIER CUSTOMERS SUPPLIERS CUSTOMERS ADMINISTRATIVE PRICES (TARIFFS) MONOPOLY/MONOPSONY MARKETS MARKET PRICES

7 Tariff Structure Non Binding Clients 13 Production Production Costs Transport Costs Transport System Global Management Costs Distribution Electricity Network Distribution Commercialisation Costs Costs Source: ERSE Regulated Activities Marketeer Power Costs Retail Commercialisation Costs Clients Non Regulated Power Prices Transport Network Use Tariff Global Use System Tariff Distribution Network Use Tariff Network Commercial. Tariff Non Regulated Market Prices Networks Access Tariff Tariff applied to Clients Cost Transfer 14 MIBEL

8 MIBEL Concept One Market, Two Systems M Consumers Demand: TWh Peak load: 44.9 GW Inst. Capacity: 86.0 GW 6 M Consumers Demand: 50.1 TWh Peak load: 9.1 GW Inst. Capacity: 14.0 GW 30 M Consumidores TWh Equal rights and obligations for agents of both countries Principles of transparency, objectivity and liquidity One Market Operator, based on the integration of OMIP and OMEL Two System Operators One Regulators Council One Technical Committee Electricity Sector in the Iberian Peninsula (2007) 16 Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Load (MW) Annual Demand (TWh) Relative Dimension Spain 86,0 44,9 260,8 84% Portugal 14,0 9,1 50,1 16% Total 100,0 54,0 311,0 5,2:1

9 Consumo de Electricidade (TWh, 2005) % % 100% 101% 116% 117% 148% NL Iberia Italy UK Nordpool France Germany Source: EIA, UCTE MIBEL - 4 Interconnection Interconnection Levels 18 Physical Network Interconnections development/reinforcement Internal networks reinforcement Operational System and Market Operation Economical Market model Legal/Regulatory Governments Regulators System operation procedures coordination Market operation integration IT harmonization Common market model Harmonization of agent s revenues: common contracting mechanisms, capacity payment, network congestion management, demand management, etc. Interconnection management One market operator Legal and regulatory harmonization System operation rules harmonization Tariffs harmonization Supervision Harmonization

10 19 Electricity Markets 20 Main Concepts

11 Electricity Market Electro-Economic Compatibility 21 div D = ρ/ε o div B = 0 rot E = - B/ t rot H = mo j + D/ t Electricity as a Commodity 22 Non storable Low dynamic performance of generation Low elasticity of demand Physical flows follow physical laws and not market rules Permanent instantaneous balance between generation and demand Physical arbitrage not possible Volume uncertainty (demand) Physical flows difficult(*) to be imposed High price volatility Physical injection/withdrawal diagram synthesized with transactions in several markets (terms) Permanent reserve needed Specific regulation (and markets) needed for transmission Central coordination needed

12 Electricity Specificity and Markets 23 High price volatility Physical injection/withdrawal diagram synthesized with transactions in several markets (terms) Permanent reserve needed Specific regulation (and markets) needed for transmission Central coordination needed ENERGY MARKETS SYSTEM OPERATION MARKETS CONGESTION MANAGEMENT CAPACITY ALLOCATION TSO MONOPOLY MONOPSONY RESTRUCTURED COMPETITIVE ELECTRICITY MARKET 24 Electricity Market Power (Energy) Markets Power Exchange Market (PX) Bilateral Contract Market (OTC) Transmission Capacity Markets Physical Transmission Rights (PTRs) Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) Implicit Auctions System Operation Services &b Markets To enable the electricity market activity

13 Building the Load Diagram 25 Buy Buy Peak Load Sell Peak Load Peak Load Sell Peak Load Base Load Base Load Forward Day Ahead Term Time to supply Years / months Day / hours Building the Load Diagram Final Shape 26 Balancing Day-ahead schedules Real-time dispatches MW MW Spot Trade Spot Trade Forward Bilateral Trade Forward Bilateral Trade Hour Hour

14 Overall Result Buyer Perspective 27 MW Peak Load Peak Load Spot Trade Base Load Bilateral Trade Hour Final Price= Weighted Average of different time block prices= =BL(1) + PL(2)+ Sbuy(3) Ssale(4) SImb(5) + BImb(6) Example 28

15 Interface Market - SO FUTURES MARKET 29 Purchasers Quantities and prices Quantities and prices Futures Market Deals Futures Market program Sellers MARKET OPERATOR Constraints management Operation and dispatch in real time Settlement DAY-AHEAD/INTRADAY AHEAD/INTRADAY ENERGY MARKET Purchasers Quantities and prices Sellers Quantities and prices Spot Market Deals Spot Market program Net buy/ sell balance (Generic Programming Units) Production modulation basis programme (Physical units) Network analysis Technical constraints Yes No Final viable programme System Services Management MW Actual metering & Settlement MARKET OPERATOR Restriction management Spot Trade BILATERAL CONTRACTS Bilateral Trade Hour Purchasers ) Physical bilateral contract Quantities in contract SYSTEM OPERATOR SYSTEM OPERATOR SETTLEMENT OPERATOR Sellers MARKET PARTICIPANTS Portfolio / Physical Physical Electricity Market Structure 30 Spot Market Generation & demand balanced TSO Post event settlement D -1 Futures Markets Balancing Mechanism Imbalance Settlement Year Ahead (or earlier) T 3 to 6 hrs T - 0 hrs Financial / Physical Physical

16 31 Transmission Capacity Rights Back to Physics Load Flow Restrictions 32 E A SInjections + SImports = SWithdrawls + SExports D C B

17 LMP Locational Marginal Price USA 33 PE Cost to serve the next MW of load at a specific location, using the lowest production cost of all available generation, while observing all transmission limits PD PA E A SInjections + SImports = SWithdrawls + SExports D C PC B PB Zonal Pricing Europe Zone A P A Internal overcosts socialized 34 E SInjections + SImports = SWithdrawls + SExports D A SInjections + SImports = SWithdrawls + SExports C B Zone B P B Internal overcosts socialized

18 Contractual vs Commercial Flows 35 Pentalateral region: F-B-NL-D Contractual vs Commercial Flows MW Fonte: RTE

19 Contractual vs Commercial Flows MW Fonte: RTE UCTE Physical Energy Flows

20 Francia Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad importación / exportación (BE+DE+ES+CH+IT+GB) = MW / MW (13,1% de la demanda punta) Bélgica Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad importación / exportación (FR + NL) = MW / MW (42,7% de la demanda punta) Alemania Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad importación / export. (AT+CZ+CH+DK+FR+NL+PL+SE) = MW / MW (21% de la demanda punta) 39 Suiza Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad importación / export. (FR+DE+IT+AT) = MW / MW (85,1% de la demanda punta) España Capacidades import. FR: MW (3,2%D p ) PT: MW (2,8%D p ) España Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad import. /export. (FR+PT) = MW (6% D p ) / MW Península Ibérica (ES+PT) Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad import./export. (UCTE) (FR) = MW / 500 MW (2,7% de la demanda punta) Italia Punta de demanda: MW Capacidad importación / export. (FR+CH+AT+SLO+GR) = MW / MW (14,2% de la demanda punta) Datos de NTC (Net Transfer Capacities) Invierno 2006/2007 (ETSO y REE) Puntas de demanda (UCTE y TSOs) Source:REE Current status of Spain-Portugal interconnection infrastructures 40 Interconnection infrastructures prior to 2004 CARTELLE LINDOSO POCINHO BEMPOSTA ALDEADAVILA SAUCELLE Cartelle Lindoso 400 kv Aldeadávila Bemposta 220 kv Aldeadávila Pocinho 220 kv Saucelle Pocinho 220 kv Cedillo Falagueira 400 kv FALAGUEIRA 1200 CEDILLO Infrastructures built in the framework of MIBEL ALQUEVA BALBOA 2nd circuit Cartelle Lindoso 400 kv 2004 Balboa Alqueva 400 kv 2004 Source:REN/REE

21 Transmission Grid Access Asymmetric Approach Fulfilment of electrical energy transactions requires transmission capacity rights Internal transactions Capacity included in access to network agreement International Capacity rights acquisition required Explicitly (PTR) Implicitly (Market Splitting, Market Coupling) 41 PT? ES Interconnection Capacity Allocation 42 Explicit auction (Long Term/Short Term) Allocation of capacity on yearly, quarterly, monthly, daily, ID basis Auction price usually set at bid price of last allocated bid Market participants separately trade capacity and energy Problem: firmness of the acquired capacity Primary capacity offer by TSO Implicit auction/market coupling/market splitting (Short Term) Allocation by spot exchange If Price B > Price A, cheapest bids from country A into exchange B are allocated up to complete use of A-B interconnection capacity Capacity used to level out price differences between regions First come, first served (Long Term/Short Term) Allocation of capacity through historical ranking of contracts Usage rate of contract influences ranking Pro-Rata Allocation (Long Term/Short Term) Participants request capacity up to maximum available capacity Allocation on a pro-rata basis if necessary

22 Iberian Interconnections 43 Interconnection PT-ES (IPE) Market Splitting - (>01.Jul.07) Explicit Auctions (>?) Year / Quarter / Month Interconnection FR-ES (IFE) Explicit Auctions (>Jul.06) Year / Month / Day / Intraday IPE Explicit Auctions 44 ATC PT-ES ES-PT ATC B A C One product for each direction Hourly segmentation Available Total Capacity divided in: - Explicit Auctions Maturities (Y, Q, M) - Spot Market Explicit Auctions to sell Physical Transmission Rights Nominated with bilateral contracts Non nominated Capacity included in Spot Matket UIOSI

23 IPE Explicit Auctions Example PT-ES ATC B A C Quant. Ofertas Acumul. Quant. Preço ATC Explict = 1000 P = 65 ATC ES-PT B A C ATC Explict = 400 P = 75 1 st a 75 (C)partially matched (150) 2 nd a 75 not matched (FIFO Criterion) ATC Explict = 1400 P = 0 Gestión n Interconexión n España-Portugal: Visión n general 46 Subasta anual Subasta trim estral Subasta m ensual M ercado Diario Market Splitting Nominación CBFs nacionales M ercados intradiarios M arket Splitting 9:35 a.m 11:00 a.m 9:45 a.m 10:00 a.m Envío NTC, Cbint y ATC a OM IE M ercado secundario PTRs Antes de D-1 D-1 D Nom inación PTRs Próxim a implantación En funcionam iento desde 1 Jul. 2007

24 47 Futures Market Products 48 Options Contracts for Differences Forwards Sophistication Balance of the Month (BOM) Peakload Futures Baseload Futures Weeks Months Quarters Years Start Medium/Long Term Time

25 Contratos Negociáveis Em 26.Mai MW h Contratos Anuais YR-09 YR-10 Contratos Trimestrais Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Contratos Mensais 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 Contratos Semanais Wk 08 Wk 09 Wk 10 Product Specifications 50 Baseload Futures contracts Physical and Financial contracts Contract unit: 1 MW * contract number of hours Tick: 0.01 /MWh Delivery periods (natural calendar, without cascading): Next 3 weeks 3 to 5 monthly contracts 4 to 7 quarters Next calendar year Spot reference price for delivery settlement (both types of contracts): Monetary value of the "SPEL base" index, which represents the electricity average price of the OMEL s day-ahead market in the Spanish zone.

26 Futures Definition (I) 51 Normalized Quality For the physical delivery contracts, the electricity has to be delivered at a constant power of 1MW per each of the hours of the specified period Fixed Quantity (also called the nominal of the contract) Each contract involves the delivery of a certain quantity of electricity. E.g. September contracts involve the delivery of 720 MWh, at a constant power of 1MW per each of the 720 hours of September month Futures Definition (II) 52 Fixed Date Each contract involves the delivery of a specified amount of electricity during a specified period of time Pre-defined Place For the physical delivery contracts, the electricity has to be delivered in the national grids of Spain and Portugal The only contract element to trade is the Price Minimum price change is also called the tick size Minimum contract s value change is also called the tick value (tick size x nominal of the contract)

27 Contract Phases and settlement 53 Price Profits and losses due to price movements are cash settled on a daily basis (MTM) Settlement Prices Last Closing Price OMI Clear daily cash settles the difference between Spot Ref. Price and the Last Closing Price Spot Index OMIE settles the electricity at a similar price of the Spot Ref, Price Trading Period Delivery Period Time Utilização dos Produtos Short Hedging 54 PRODUTOR Vende futuros Recebe der./spot OMIP Vende energia Recebe preço spot Exemplo Der. (+) Der. (-) Spot OMEL Spot

28 Ambiente de Negociação 55 Multilateral Todas as ordens interferem entre si Anónimo OMI Clear é contraparte central (sem risco de credito) Sistema Automático, aberto, baseado em API Várias tecnologias de acesso (linhas dedicadas, Internet, ) Integrado com Sistema de Clearing Membro Membro Mercado / OMIP Sell 100@41.00 Membro Membro Buy 100@41.00 Product Applications Hedging Strategies 56 Physical Position Futures Hedging Consumer / Retailer Short Risk: higher prices Buy Futures (Long hedging) Producer Long Risk: lower prices Sell Futures (Short hedging) Higher Spot Prices Scenario Spot Results Derivatives Results Spot Results Derivatives Results Lower Spot Prices Scenario Spot Results Derivatives Results Spot Results Derivatives Results

29 Members* Location Updated 08/04/08 * Including Settlement Agents OMIP - Price Evolution Jan-08 Feb Mar-08 Abr-08 Q1-08 Q Set 10-Set 17-Set 24-Set 01-Out 08-Out 15-Out 22-Out 29-Out 05-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 03-Dez 10-Dez 17-Dez 24-Dez 31-Dez 07-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 04-Fev 11-Fev 18-Fev 25-Fev 03-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar Updated 17/03/08

30 Spreads OMIP-Powernext ( /MWh) FTB Q4-06 FTB Q1-07 FTB Q2-07 FTB Q3-07 FTB Q4-07 FTB Q1-08 FTB Q2-08 FTB Q3-08 FTB YR-07 FTB YR Jul 18-Jul 2-Aug 17-Aug 1-Sep 16-Sep 1-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec 30-Dec 14-Jan 29-Jan 13-Feb 28-Feb 15-Mar 30-Mar 14-Apr 29-Apr 14-May 29-May 13-Jun 28-Jun 13-Jul 28-Jul 12-Aug 27-Aug 11-Sep 26-Sep 11-Oct 26-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec 9-Jan 24-Jan 8-Feb 23-Feb 9-Mar 24-Mar 8-Apr 60 Spot Market

31 Mercado Diário 61 Gerido pelo OMEL (Madrid) desde Jan leilões diários, para cada uma das horas (1-25) do dia de calendário seguinte Realizado todos os dias às 10:00 CET Participam todos os produtores, distribuidores, comercializadores, agentes externos, representantes e consumidores Lógica de preço marginalista (realiza um só preço para cada hora) Considera 2 zonas separadas mas interligadas = solução de Market Splitting Ofertas simples e complexas (indivisibilidade, receita mínima, gradiente de carga, paragem programada) Mercados Intradiários 62 Geridos pelo OMEL (Madrid) Seis sessões realizadas todos os dias 111 leilões diários, cobrindo várias horas (9-28) do dia de calendário seguinte (ver esquema) Participam todos os produtores, distribuidores, comercializadores, agentes externos, representantes e consumidores Lógica de preço marginalista (realiza um só preço para cada hora) Considera 2 zonas separadas mas interligadas = solução de Market Splitting Ofertas simples e complexas Regras semelhantes às do Mercado Diário

32 Mercados Diário e Intradiários 63 D-1 D Diário 10: Intradiário 1 17: Intradiário 2 21: Intradiário 3 01: Intradiário 4 04: Intradiário 5 08: Intradiário 6 12: Fonte: OMEL Mercado Ibérico de Electricidade Encontro de Ofertas X 24 64

33 Curva do Mercado (Diário) Zona / hora isoladas 65 /MWh C /KWh Preço da última oferta de venda casada Ofertas de Venda (Geração) Preço marginal Ofertas de Compra (Consumo) Energia casada MWh Afectação da Capacidade de Interligação Market Splitting 66 Low price area High price area Price/MWh Bids Offers Price/MWh Bids Offers P high 0 cap P high P low Bids Plow - 0 cap MWh/h MWh/h Capacity between price areas

34 Mercados Produção Locais 67 Fonte: OMEL PRECIOS DEL MERCADO DIARIO EL DÍA 1/7/

35 Updated 17/03/08 01-Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar-08 SPREAD Base PTEL Base SPEL Base SPOT Baseload Portugal and Spain 70 PRECIOS DEL MERCADO DIARIO EL DÍA 12/9/

36 71 Price difference July ( /MWh) Día D 01 21,08 17,56 19,33 14,00 10,84 10,74 12,55 15,08 6,00 6,74 9,74 10,60 10,74 9,24 1,74 3,94 L 02 15,00 11,39 13,81 15,04 3,13 3,13 6,90 8,93 8,00 6,80 13,00 13,70 15,00 14,00 14,00 17,92 22,00 16,93 12,50 20,86 M 03 25,18 17,03 17,33 17,57 13,89 13,11 10,12 5,16 11,09 11,35 8,69 8,69 14,89 14,35 14,09 14,89 17,03 21,94 26,39 16,56 10,06 14,00 X 04 3,86 9,98 12,36 13,43 14,98 14,70 11,75 5,46 4,18 14,79 13,21 8,21 8,69 8,00 14,00 15,91 17,14 14,55 15,09 18,50 17,21 16,71 6,13 15,71 J 05 20,50 18,04 21,13 17,23 16,75 14,86 14,00 15,04 7,19 14,33 11,82 3,97 2,03 1,96 15,61 17,95 16,74 6,02 14,02 16,69 17,87 19,69 15,44 22,14 V 06 18,79 13,00 14,50 13,89 14,04 13,89 11,89 10,00 4,52 14,61 2,96 15,02 16,91 15,61 4,39 14,21 16,69 12,35 14,21 10,71 16,31 S 07 13,19 12,58 10,14 10,31 10,41 11,89 12,36 8,78 5,50 4,50 5,46 0,74 1,29 0,40 0,43 2,68 12,44 D 08 12,44 10,40 9,36 10,92 11,56 11,56 13,39 12,41 10,33 6,22 4,20 2,21 5,21 2,21 2,65 9,21 14,98 15,54 16,66 20,00 21,75 19,89 12,66 21,66 L 09 21,18 23,26 15,59 16,61 16,96 16,61 14,53 8,78 14,62 32,34 26,50 21,50 13,43 12,05 25,21 26,39 27,09 26,09 24,45 20,69 23,53 22,25 20,69 22,25 M 10 19,80 11,06 21,70 13,93 14,30 14,30 11,86 6,22 1,99 7,19 7,49 1,00 10,21 10,93 10,83 10,69 5,79 12,13 15,19 20,23 17,25 15,26 20,54 X 11 13,06 14,46 16,54 10,95 11,21 11,05 9,36 5,22 0,11 9,14 11,01 8,41 11,13 5,73 18,37 24,23 22,87 20,67 15,97 18,25 22,47 21,67 17,25 22,25 J 12 11,29 10,52 11,36 11,86 11,36 10,36 8,29 1,90 8,55 10,01 11,20 17,44 8,40 10,85 15,99 13,42 13,20 7,85 7,55 12,25 13,25 11,75 17,30 V 13 18,25 11,66 14,44 14,16 20,00 16,76 15,04 14,00 1,50 8,55 19,40 20,11 18,75 20,96 19,21 24,30 23,10 21,28 14,28 10,25 11,75 10,25 9,25 16,25 S 14 6,71 9,10 15,60 13,44 14,91 14,29 15,29 12,93 10,39 9,60 3,85 4,89 6,09 6,79 15,40 16,92 19,00 19,03 19,00 18,25 17,50 13,00 5,00 9,20 D 15 14,50 10,47 12,80 11,04 12,04 12,04 12,54 16,29 15,93 12,54 15,08 16,55 18,50 18,47 14,22 11,04 9,04 10,19 9,04 2,04 1,35 L 16 4,75 5,58 13,72 12,26 11,04 11,07 8,07 1,81 0,17 6,10 7,74 6,15 6,05 1,13 7,09 15,00 11,72 10,59 9,82 13,47 13,40 10,79 11,96 17,86 M 17 8,40 11,96 15,17 18,16 16,72 12,97 11,23 5,33 4,44 2,43 5,72 5,93 1,41 4,10 10,72 7,50 4,22 13,10 X 18 7,09 10,05 12,21 13,00 13,82 12,19 9,37 4,90 8,24 J 19 8,10 10,37 10,66 11,00 9,91 6,92 3,97 6,91 5,80 15,00 V 20 7,35 14,45 16,55 19,20 18,38 12,40 15,69 13,95 1,71 2,80 1,58 3,62 5,22 3,77 7,05 S 21 2,50 2,42 4,73 5,57 6,55 6,71 5,05 2,99 4,67 5,43 4,91 D 22 2,47 12,57 5,54 6,94 8,14 7,40 9,65 9,04 4,67 7,40 8,67 7,55 10,26 10,70 7,55 12,22 16,47 17,05 17,67 16,31 17,57 15,20 4,72 L 23 4,81 7,34 4,29 3,81 4,04 7,55 17,73 14,63 11,50 11,51 2,55 8,50 9,46 7,30 3,30 6,35 4,72 4,55 7,02 M 24 12,02 14,06 14,16 11,04 12,11 3,55 7,74 6,06 1,14 0,62 4,04 2,54 13,41 X 25 12,04 11,81 8,29 8,94 8,94 1,13 1,23 4,60 3,54 J 26 4,59 6,64 7,39 7,72 2,59 3,00 6,05 V 27 5,42 7,31 7,55 7,73 7,55 5,75 0,30 4,45 5,82 8,00 14,41 S 28 7,34 7,35 2,35 6,85 7,06 6,44 4,86 4,58 D 29 14,85 2,05 4,85 6,82 7,63 8,16 8,84 1,47 5,44 6,34 5,54 0,84 L 30 9,83 7,65 9,27 9,41 11,15 10,56 7,61 7,01 2,72 8,19 10,11 8,63 11,85 4,50 9,78 1,47 1,57 8,35 11,88 15,47 10,95 14,50 23,43 M 31 5,24 12,84 14,25 13,18 11,84 11,82 10,38 6,94 12,98 Single price market Splitted Markets (Price difference < 15 /MWh) Splitted Markets (Price difference > 15 /MWh) Maximum price difference ( /MWh) 72 Price difference August ( /MWh) Día X 01 12,45 14,00 15,32 15,50 15,11 12,66 12,64 9,14 3,61 3,63 8,19 6,54 1,97 0,13 8,64 1,86 3,52 6,00 7,50 7,50 18,71 J 02 12,95 15,18 17,47 18,56 17,42 15,31 11,94 12,37 8,15 3,36 7,50 5,12 7,75 9,00 17,39 16,72 15,70 18,50 V 03 14,93 19,37 20,72 23,68 21,08 20,08 15,29 12,25 11,22 12,75 7,16 6,11 0,33 1,03 2,22 1,03 6,61 8,00 5,55 5,16 9,50 S 04 8,55 14,42 15,50 17,00 15,37 14,83 13,78 13,26 1,00 0,48 3,00 4,15 7,63 10,87 10,62 3,35 4,81 8,01 D 05 14,76 16,85 17,42 17,32 17,01 19,46 20,39 18,62 15,52 18,06 12,92 10,99 7,90 3,76 3,74 9,33 10,40 7,30 L 06 9,85 11,40 12,04 10,55 10,86 11,18 9,57 9,42 4,66 7,85 6,54 0,47 6,47 7,50 3,47 7,45 9,35 10,24 5,35 7,01 15,33 M 07 12,34 13,10 11,28 11,24 12,43 12,43 9,87 9,01 6,19 7,25 5,07 5,65 0,28 5,20 3,50 3,50 3,50 8,00 12,35 14,55 5,60 6,50 15,00 X 08 16,05 16,53 18,31 17,50 15,38 15,20 11,89 11,75 10,69 10,64 4,68 3,11 0,81 5,51 4,87 4,26 2,41 12,35 14,25 9,50 12,15 15,00 J 09 16,20 17,65 18,80 19,21 17,73 16,71 16,12 13,84 9,43 6,10 1,00 2,87 8,25 10,15 7,30 7,47 14,93 12,35 2,60 5,60 14,10 V 10 13,25 15,44 18,08 18,25 17,15 14,79 15,04 12,80 10,08 8,10 6,36 2,80 0,05 7,70 9,90 7,60 8,20 2,36 7,56 2,36 2,09 9,00 S 11 2,04 13,53 14,00 14,00 14,57 14,84 14,29 14,54 12,72 12,50 1,09 2,38 2,38 0,99 5,13 D 12 5,75 9,50 9,56 10,34 10,15 9,88 11,89 10,74 11,16 12,78 12,34 12,35 9,05 0,35 0,33 10,00 11,49 11,49 10,69 L 13 17,50 19,50 21,50 17,93 16,13 15,13 10,38 8,94 3,26 4,21 3,90 0,40 2,34 0,70 3,03 9,73 1,91 14,50 M 14 10,34 12,06 10,89 11,74 12,62 12,62 11,05 1,11 4,53 4,26 3,24 5,00 12,00 13,23 7,23 6,23 7,23 8,73 7,23 11,71 17,05 X 15 13,99 10,68 12,98 8,85 11,38 11,38 11,89 14,31 14,23 11,88 9,35 8,86 11,06 10,15 9,26 8,96 10,88 9,26 8,85 6,36 4,85 2,05 J 16 11,12 14,47 16,56 16,89 18,01 17,99 16,48 14,46 10,33 11,49 4,84 5,76 1,19 8,84 6,20 5,93 1,23 3,53 11,50 1,90 6,34 12,84 V 17 12,21 14,10 16,48 17,26 17,32 17,25 14,29 10,79 8,79 5,30 6,07 4,79 5,00 6,20 5,20 3,50 3,80 3,29 10,17 S 18 10,74 14,68 15,67 14,49 14,57 14,06 13,10 10,25 9,59 1,40 3,54 6,09 9,01 3,08 10,51 12,35 D 19 8,90 6,75 12,07 8,72 8,39 10,43 11,20 13,95 12,46 9,02 8,55 7,62 5,22 1,35 0,15 7,01 10,10 9,01 9,00 9,00 9,91 1,49 L 20 15,62 17,53 19,23 19,23 19,10 16,72 13,66 13,17 6,93 6,12 5,25 3,95 3,17 5,25 4,90 3,66 4,16 6,31 7,76 5,46 8,89 M 21 9,48 11,15 14,64 16,66 16,78 16,72 16,58 10,95 9,75 7,17 6,63 8,61 4,63 2,50 6,42 8,35 12,73 10,95 11,50 8,98 9,85 5,85 10,13 X 22 10,06 13,67 16,30 16,40 16,81 16,23 12,96 8,58 4,37 5,60 7,77 8,23 0,61 1,90 6,00 6,50 5,76 6,92 7,36 2,79 10,10 13,26 J 23 10,48 14,53 15,44 16,70 16,60 16,74 14,10 7,11 9,12 6,18 3,12 0,61 7,32 10,60 10,47 9,23 7,16 8,68 11,03 5,21 6,15 5,60 V 24 6,11 11,16 14,43 14,97 16,88 16,81 12,48 7,16 9,20 6,55 3,27 2,50 3,75 11,16 12,04 11,23 7,03 7,17 7,43 8,93 13,70 S 25 0,76 5,85 12,72 14,03 16,54 16,48 16,60 16,45 14,85 10,84 7,60 5,56 6,98 8,87 11,91 14,00 15,00 16,68 14,50 10,88 9,51 10,10 D 26 11,16 14,01 16,88 16,90 16,96 16,87 16,62 16,87 16,66 16,35 13,79 12,96 12,63 10,75 8,26 10,38 12,00 13,30 10,15 8,95 7,15 L 27 12,60 14,15 16,88 17,22 18,47 17,37 15,69 8,11 6,25 3,73 12,28 9,50 6,50 7,50 2,48 0,55 6,23 10,88 11,63 14,75 M 28 12,95 16,44 18,38 18,54 18,89 17,71 15,08 8,55 2,24 2,00 2,50 4,23 2,51 2,95 6,00 7,35 3,99 11,10 14,28 X 29 11,40 14,89 15,75 16,89 16,97 16,97 14,40 10,59 2,16 5,52 1,43 1,97 12,35 14,90 15,50 17,23 17,90 17,50 12,96 15,22 19,23 J 30 20,17 19,60 23,24 22,50 22,31 21,54 19,23 15,50 12,30 10,31 2,05 1,53 1,98 4,21 2,25 3,00 13,15 V 31 12,98 15,50 18,19 18,05 15,82 15,32 12,78 7,61 5,35 2,00 1,85 1,23 5,90 0,35 11,96 9,95 1,16 11,27 15,16 Single price market Splitted Markets (Price difference < 15 /MWh) Splitted Markets (Price difference > 15 /MWh) Maximum price difference ( /MWh)

37 73 Price difference September ( /MWh) Día S 01 2,81 9,54 14,17 14,45 15,60 12,90 14,04 11,89 13,80 10,19 2,11 7,61 8,08 8,42 6,30 D 02 4,26 2,33 10,17 10,46 14,07 14,13 14,83 16,84 14,29 13,50 11,42 15,10 13,30 7,05 3,90 12,46 13,25 11,79 11,13 11,23 11,98 L 03 6,13 14,61 17,59 17,11 19,97 19,09 15,52 7,97 4,83 7,00 7,00 3,40 1,04 4,70 7,35 0,94 6,50 14,75 M 04 13,45 16,95 18,68 19,05 19,13 18,72 16,54 11,97 8,26 9,21 9,50 4,20 1,43 2,63 4,99 3,50 2,50 3,50 9,55 9,43 4,82 13,75 17,50 X 05 15,63 18,47 18,05 21,00 16,77 14,81 15,15 10,08 7,94 10,15 7,00 4,00 0,69 3,70 4,00 0,65 7,25 13,33 J 06 12,05 16,53 17,21 17,40 17,23 17,13 14,25 4,69 8,12 8,65 5,30 4,87 5,95 7,70 10,05 5,19 7,30 13,43 15,85 10,40 13,35 14,75 V 07 16,07 18,57 17,28 17,10 16,69 16,09 14,27 5,05 6,40 9,55 2,44 1,48 0,45 4,50 11,35 10,15 9,15 5,45 8,50 8,50 5,43 12,30 S 08 11,47 12,51 14,26 11,50 13,07 11,52 10,36 8,21 9,64 2,50 1,20 2,25 6,12 5,33 3,52 D 09 15,00 15,32 15,42 13,51 13,12 12,52 13,52 12,90 13,66 15,38 12,42 5,32 4,75 0,85 4,26 10,32 10,33 12,32 12,42 2,80 4,52 L 10 17,53 16,00 16,70 15,60 15,68 15,68 12,66 2,71 5,70 9,37 8,60 5,23 6,15 5,93 6,00 13,00 14,95 M 11 12,45 15,01 15,79 14,80 14,62 14,61 10,77 1,00 11,81 13,42 10,70 7,75 6,95 12,70 16,50 16,10 10,75 11,68 14,25 9,93 2,30 8,19 14,50 X 12 12,90 16,69 17,54 17,69 18,79 15,39 13,21 4,02 0,15 7,93 7,50 6,70 3,80 1,20 6,90 8,60 6,55 1,59 6,50 9,25 9,55 2,70 10,00 15,78 J 13 12,50 16,07 15,89 15,33 15,73 15,05 11,36 2,54 4,90 3,20 5,68 0,55 5,00 8,15 6,25 2,20 1,80 3,63 1,34 3,69 10,35 V 14 7,60 11,26 13,14 12,94 13,46 12,28 9,37 0,70 0,05 4,50 6,90 7,85 9,65 12,78 12,03 9,00 4,70 12,53 13,56 S 15 10,50 15,63 14,55 15,55 16,07 16,64 16,57 15,65 16,11 8,81 1,50 3,05 1,00 3,90 12,40 9,90 9,20 8,45 10,50 3,00 13,00 D 16 7,90 11,00 12,98 10,71 11,89 11,81 12,27 12,27 14,06 12,33 8,92 10,60 13,35 13,99 12,50 13,00 10,59 9,50 13,30 6,03 L 17 2,05 8,82 13,49 14,00 14,00 4,68 5,70 8,95 4,65 2,50 1,98 9,90 14,68 M 18 14,51 16,64 17,73 15,47 16,66 16,38 12,67 4,87 1,13 7,49 6,00 4,50 3,43 6,70 12,20 13,63 10,68 5,13 5,00 9,75 3,85 1,95 9,25 15,75 X 19 18,03 17,15 20,15 18,07 19,25 15,44 10,56 1,69 0,50 1,15 2,83 4,84 1,00 2,30 6,75 4,87 12,20 J 20 10,70 12,92 13,48 13,47 13,20 12,42 8,14 1,00 0,11 1,55 0,20 2,20 0,29 0,85 1,95 10,45 12,84 V 21 11,70 11,16 12,98 12,47 13,14 12,28 7,93 3,15 3,80 4,05 4,55 5,68 3,98 4,55 4,37 4,11 12,25 S 22 9,85 14,28 14,23 9,44 9,41 9,52 10,16 7,14 0,00 0,00 7,76 12,20 11,86 10,96 9,91 0,00 7,16 D 23 12,35 12,22 11,33 11,70 11,89 12,27 12,13 11,89 8,91 0,81 9,00 10,09 9,28 14,09 6,72 0,00 0,00 L 24 6,02 7,61 9,51 11,88 9,23 9,22 6,44 2,90 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,81 0,60 2,78 3,40 11,33 13,20 M 25 12,29 13,18 15,27 15,27 15,81 14,67 11,01 2,00 0,00 3,31 4,00 4,50 2,00 3,46 4,80 12,15 14,43 X 26 14,41 12,81 15,40 15,97 17,27 13,58 11,68 0,00 0,00 8,05 13,43 8,68 7,57 7,00 10,30 11,25 15,93 J 27 18,71 15,99 20,18 20,53 20,65 20,53 13,33 5,75 4,31 11,55 12,68 8,18 5,63 3,21 3,55 4,00 11,50 V 28 17,84 16,36 17,79 20,48 21,15 17,75 12,92 0,00 0,00 3,36 5,36 3,59 2,66 3,45 3,75 7,35 13,50 S 29 9,02 10,20 13,85 14,87 13,14 14,47 13,70 4,59 0,30 7,82 16,56 15,96 14,44 11,82 8,84 0,00 9,72 D 30 7,02 5,46 4,80 7,96 9,86 10,36 10,36 2,68 2,03 3,03 5,96 6,33 15,42 15,08 8,72 0,00 7,35 Single price market Splitted Markets (Price difference < 15 /MWh) Splitted Markets (Price difference > 15 /MWh) Maximum price difference ( /MWh) 74 System Operation Markets

38 Real Time Equilibrium Incerteza na Produção (I) 76 Complementaridade da energia eólica Potência eólica de 11 a 16 de Novembro de /11/2006 Máximo de potência eólica 1189 MW 13/11/2006 Potência Eólica sempre inferior a 200 MW, das 12h às 24h praticamente 0 MW 15/11/2006 Potência Eólica de 1189 MW (valor máximo em Portugal) Energia diária entregue de cerca de 24 GWh, > 15% do consumo 16/11/2006 Potência Eólica de cerca de 1000 MW (4h da manhã)... e 6 horas depois MW Source: REN

39 Incerteza na Produção (II) 77 Déclenchements de Groupes (>300MW) Disparos de Grupos ( > 300 MW), Mai-Set/2003 Desvio MW minutes 07-Mai 26-Mai 07-Jun 10-Jun 12-Jun 14-Jun 26-Jun 02-Ago 03-Ago 16-Ago 21-Ago 04-Set 08-Set 17-Set 18-Set 29-Set Source: REN Incerteza do Consumo 78 Source: REE

40 World Cup Effects of screening England vs. Argentina : 30 June Demand (MW) 33,000 Half-time (2100MW) Full-time (1600MW) End of penalties (1500MW) 32, June Extra-time Halftime 200MW 31,000 30, MW drop 1000MW drop 29,000 Extra-time 30 June Full-time 400MW 28,000 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 22:30 Source: NGC System Services 80 frequency; voltage; back-up supply; system restoration; system stability; system harmonics, distortion, phase unbalance Source: CIGRE JOINT WORKING GROUP 39/ "POWER SYSTEM - POWER PLANTS INTERACTION" 3 6

41 Required Ancillary Services 81 power reserve reactive power/voltage control static compensation; rotating compensation with voltage regulator; black start; protection operation speed; house load operation; Time to synchronise; generator resistance to faults, phase unbalance, harmonics and voltage fluc-tuations. load reduction; distribution tap changing. Source: CIGRE JOINT WORKING GROUP 39/11 "POWER SYSTEM - POWER PLANTS INTERACTION" Ancillary Services - PT 82 Mandatory (required for grid connection) reactive power/voltage control frequency regulation Stability Voluntary (explicitly remunerated) Synchronous compenation Static compensation Power reserve AGC Fast load reduction (demand) Black start Remote generation start

42 Três Tempos de Actuação 83 Fonte: REE Restrições Técnicas Conceito 84 Pmarg Restrições resultantes de avaliação de condições do sistema pelo OS para o dia seguinte Substituição de ofertas casadas por outras for a de mercado Sobrecustos socializados

43 System Operation Markets 85 Secondary Regulation Tertiary Regulation Deviation Management Schematic sequencing of reserves 86 Automatic reaction of the primary controller of generating sets to a frequency deviation Instructed (manual, AGC) action of particular generating sets linked to a control loop in a control area, to move the overall system deviation of the control area toward zero 100 MW 50 Balancing based on merit order or reserves (fast, tertiary,..) time PFR SFR Balancing-fast reserves

44 Reserva Secundária 87 Definição ão: variação máxima da potência das unidades, no sentido correspondente e com a velocidade estabelecida, em resposta ao sistema de controlo. P h Reserva a subir Reserva a baixar Banda de reserva t = 30 s t t = 15 min Tempo máximo até que a reserva terciária entre em funcionamento. Regulação Secundária 88

45 Processamento 89 Regulação Terciária 90 Reserva de regulação terciária ria Variação máxima de potência que uma unidade consegue efectuar num tempo máximo de 15 minutos, e que possa manter, pelo menos, durante duas horas. P h Reserva a subir Reserva a baixar Banda de reserva Δt = 15 min Δt = 2 horas t

46 Regulação Terciária 91 Preço Final da Energia Espanha 92 Componentes do Preço Final 2007 Preço Final Médio 2007 ( /MWh) Mercado Diário 41,08 Restrições Técnicas Processos O.S. Garantia de Potência 1,34 0,96 3,90 Mercado Diário 87% Restrições Técnicas 3% Processos O.S. 2% Garantia de potência 8% TOTAL 47,28