South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate Thesis Proposal Submission Form (Please send applications by mid-february-grants can start in May 06)

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1 Applicant s name Country Institution University degree pursued s Tutors Country Institution Proposed duration Requested to (US$) Other contributions (US$) Other contributions (US$) Marcelo Félix Alonso Brazil CPTEC (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos) INPE (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) Cachoeira Paulista/SP PhD Undergraduate, Master, PhD Saulo Freitas and Karla Longo Brazil CPTEC (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos) INPE (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) Cachoeira Paulista/SP 48 months (max. 12months for Undergraduates, 24 months for Masters and 48 months for PhDs) 1,000 US$ (max. 1,000 US$ month) Institution: Institution:

2 Personal details: Join a 2 page max curriculum Name: Marcelo Félix Alonso Address: 240 / 301 Domingos Guedes Cabral Street, Postal: City: Pelotas State: RS Country: Brazil Phone Number: or anddress: mfapel@ig.com.br Scientific/professional background Fundação Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) BRAMS introduce on institution academic degrees Undergraduate in Meteorology Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPEL) Master in Meteorology Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPEL) Title: Estudo das eficiências das Parametrizações de convecção em eventos severos ocorridos no Brasil, utilizando o BRAMS. (Studying the efficiency of cumulus schemes on the model representation of severe convective systems in Brazil, using the B-RAMS model) Tutor: Dr. Jaci Maria Bilhalva Saraiva. Important Conference Papers ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; SARAIVA, Jaci M. Comparação entre as versões 4.4 e 5.02 do modelo regional atmosférico (RAMS) para a região sul do Brasil. In: XIII CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE METEOROLOGIA, 2004, Fortaleza. Anais do XIII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; SARAIVA, Jaci M; FREITAS, Saulo Ribeiro. Estudo da Confiabilidade das Simulações do RAMS Versão 5.02 (BRAMS) para Eventos Severos no Rio Grande do Sul. In: XIII CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE METEOROLOGIA, 2004, Fortaleza. Anais do XIII congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; CAMPOS, Cláudia R Jacondino. Estudo Prognóstico do Transporte de Quantidade de Movimento de um CCM observado no dia 27 de novembro de In: XIII CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE METEOROLOGIA, 2004, Fortaleza. Anais do XIII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; FOSTER, Paulo Roberto Pelufo. Estudo da Refração Atmosférica durante o Evento do dia 02/08/2003. In: XII CONGRESSO DE INICIAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA, 2003, Pelotas ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; VIEIRA, Roger Oliveira; FOSTER, Paulo Roberto Pelufo. Estudo da Refração

3 Atmosférica Utilizando dados da Microssonda GPS MARK II. In: XII CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE METEOROLOGIA, 2002, Foz do Iguaçu. Anais do XII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia. São Paulo: Sonopress Rimo indústria e comércio fonográfica, Conference expanded abstracts SARAIVA, Jaci M; ALONSO, Marcelo Félix. Comparison Between The Simulations Of A Squall Line Occured In January In: INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON NOWCASTING AND VERY SHORT RANGE FORECASTING (WSN05), 2005, Toulouse. WSN ALONSO, Marcelo Félix; SARAIVA, Jaci M. Simulation Of A Squall Line Ocurred In January In: INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON NOWCASTING AND VERY SHORT RANGE FORECASTING (WSN05), 2005, Toulouse. WSN Publications ALONSO, Marcelo Félix. Análise Diurna da Refração Atmosférica sobre o sul do Brasil. Thema, ISSN/ISBN: JESUS, James A A; CAMPOS, Cláudia R Jacondino; SARAIVA, Jaci M; ALONSO, Marcelo Félix.Simulação da Concentração superficial de contaminantes utilizando perfis de vento obtidos pelos modelos OML e RAMS: Caso do dia 06/07/1979 do experimento de Copenhahgen. Ciencia e Natura, ISSN/ISBN: Honors 2003 Honored Mention, UFPEL 2002 Best paper in student s category of Brazilian Conference of Meteorology (XII CONGREMET) 1999/2002 Prize research s young in IX/XI Conference of scientific Initiation - UFPEL

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5 Thesis Project Proposal: 1 page Provide a general description of the thesis project, the research areas and the institutions involved. A timeline of the research will also be welcome. Numerical Simulations of Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America The thesis project will address the development and validation of numerical models and tools for studies associated to atmosphere chemical composition modification on South America (SA) and its impacts on the regional climate change. The core numerical system used for this task will be the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). RAMS is a numerical model designed to simulate atmospheric circulations at many scales (resolution ranging from less than a meter to the order of a hundred kilometers), it solves the fully compressible non-hydrostatic equations, is equipped with a multiple grid nesting scheme which allows the model equations to be solved simultaneously on any number of interacting computational meshes of different spatial resolution. RAMS has also a 4d data assimilation system that permits the model solution be nudged with boundary condition provided for global models or analysis. CATT is an Eulerian transport model fully coupled with RAMS model. It explores the on-line tracer transport capability of RAMS and includes grid-scale transport and subgrid transport associated to PBL diffusion, shallow and deep convective, wet removal, dry deposition and plume-rise associated to vegetation fires. Emissions inventories available includes the recent version of EDGAR 32FT2000 for anthropogenic (urban, industrial, transportation), emissions from charcoal production, biofuel use and agricultural burnings as well as biomass burning on a regional scale and daily basis (Freitas, 1999). One Marcelo s focus will be updating the current emissions inventories with the new dataset developed by the partners, as well as implementing the emissions scenarios in the model system. He will also update the inventories with new data developed by the scientific community, as soon as it became available. The main focus is the numerical study of regional climate change associated to modifications of the land use (for example, deforestation) and urban expansion on SA and the associated atmosphere chemical composition modification. The work will be carried out at CPTEC with all computational and infra-structure resources needs available, Marcelo also will attend lectures at Meteorology Department of INPE as part of your PhD program. The expected timeline is: Year Objectives 1 Lectures, model studies and practice, assisting the implementation of the chemical mechanism. Sensitivity studies on the reduction of the chemical mechanism for urban and regional scales. 2 Model validation, operational chemical weather forecasting implementation, development of tools and gathering data for 4DDA, inclusion of chemical data at assimilation system. 3 Performing the down-scaling of climate change scenarios 4 Overall analysis of results, writing papers, reporters and thesis.

6 Specific Contribution of this Thesis Proposal to s objectives: please write one paragraph maximum in space below This proposal work will address the three first major goals of proposal. The emerged data from item (a) will be implemented in the model system. Once the chemical mechanism became ready and validated, the dynamical down-scaling of climate change scenarios (b) and the implementation of a pilot chemical weather forecast (c) will be worked out.