Sources and uses of electricity in Brazil. The Challenge

Transcrição

1 Mining and Energy Ministry Sources and uses of electricity in Brazil The Challenge José Carlos de Miranda Farias Director of Electricity Studies, EPE (Brazilian Government Energy Research Company) Mining and Energy Ministry 1/29

2 The Brazilian National Grid (S.I.N.) Belém Installed capacity MW Hydroelectric MW = 74.7 % Thermal MW = 23.4 % Nuclear MW = 1.9% Nº. of consuming units Energy produced Maximum demand 57.5 million 418,2 TWh/year (55% of South America) 61,780 MW (UK, or Italy) Cuiabá Campo Grande Paraná/Tietê Itaipu Argentina Jacui Tocantins Iguaçu Goiânia Paranaíba Uruguai Grande Paranapanema Brasília Curitiba Porto Alegre Parnaíba Paraíba do Sul São Paulo Florianópolis Area: 8.5 million km² São Luís Teresina São Francisco Belo Horizonte Fortaleza Vitória Rio de Janeiro Natal João Rec Macei Aracajú Salvador Source: EPE, /29

3 4,000 km 4,000 km The Brazilian Grid 3/29

4 Economic growth Growth of 5% per year Higher growth rate than the world average 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% World Brazil 0% Last 10 years Last 5 years /29

5 Population growth Δ % 3,5 3,0 2,5 Growth rate 2,0 1,5 1,0 Milhões de habitantes ,1 118,6 146,6 171,3 184,0 194,0 204,5 71,0 0, ,9 0, Decades Prepared by: EPE. Number of homes 2017: 64.2 million 5/29

6 Electricity-intensive industries (installed capacity) These consumers are about 45% of total industrial electricity consumption in Brazil Millions of tons of output Δ% p.a. Aluminum Bauxite Alumina Primary aluminum Metals Steel (crude) Pelletization Ferro alloys Copper Chemicals and Soda petrochemicals Chlorine Petrochemicals complexes (ethylene) Paper and pulp Pulp High yield pulp Paper Cement Production /29

7 Final consumers Forecast changes, by consumer category 14% 24% 46% 16% 14% 25% Residential Industrial Commercial Other 44% 17% 14% 25% 42% 19% Source: EPE. 7/29

8 Selected indicators Electricity demand forecasts GDP (10 12 R$ [2007]) Population (10 6 ) Electricity consumption final consumers (TWh) GDP per capita (R$ [2007]) 14,130 17,110 20,730 Electricity consumption per capita (kwh) 2,240 2,805 3,455 Price ratio (kwh/r$ [2007]) Elasticity (ε) /29

9 Supply expansion requirements for the Brazilian grid COMPARISON OF MARKETS Average MW PDEE PDE Annual averages Year MW average Installed capacity, MW ,600 3,500-4, ,050 4,000-5,200 9/29

10 Physical guarantee balance in the Brazilian grid Physical guarantee balance based on PMO at Feb GW average Other sources 2,27 3,10 3,45 3, Thermal plants Hydroelectric Market Surplus/deficit % of market -0.51% -1.00% 1.39% -0.26% -1.36% Additionally, electricity will be offered in the Reserve Energy Auctions starting in 2009 and in the A 3 A 3 Auctions for the years 2011 and 2012, which will complement the balance indicated d above. In the scenario the backup thermal plants were considered to be available as from February The energy of the thermal plants supplied by the Cabiúnas nas-vitória gas pipeline is considered included in first half The Camaçari ari thermal plant (fuel oil) is inlcuded with an estimated Physical Guarantee. 10/29

11 Generation sources in the Brazilian grid January 2008 December 2017 Participação das Fontes de Geração - Dez/2017 SMALL PLANTS3.9% Generation sources Jan NUCLEAR 2.0% GAS COAL 1.4% 6.6% OIL 2.5% Other 0.3% DIESEL 1.1% Biogas 0.0% PEQ.USINAS GAS Generation sources December ,9% 9,2% SMALL PLANTS GAS NUCLEAR 3.9% 9.2% 2,3% NUCLEAR 2.3% CARVAO 3,8% OLEO 3,5% DIESEL 1,3% Outros 2,9% COAL 3.8% OIL 3.5% DIESEL 1.3% Other 2.9% BIOGAS 0,0% Biogas CAVACO MAD 0.0% 0,0% Wood GAS PROC0.0% 0,3% Gas pro 0.3% Wood chips 0.0% YDROELECTRIC 82.0% Sugarcane bagasse 0.3% Gas processes 0.0% HIDRO 73,2% HYDROELECTRIC 73.2% BAGAÇO CANA 2,6% Sugarcane bagasse 2.6% 11/29

12 Capacity vs. demand, Risk of deficit, by year (%) 6,0 5,0 4,0 Southeast and Center-west South Northeast North / Manaus 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, /29

13 ELECTRICITY GENERATION HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS Estreito Dardanelos São Salvador Rondon II Corumbá III Serra do Facão Santo Antonio Foz do Rio Claro Barra dos Coqueiros Caçu Salto Salto do Rio Verdinho Batalha Retiro Baixo Baguari Baú I Barra do Braúna São Domingos Power (MW) 8,194 Foz do Chapecó Passo São João São José 14 de julho Monjolinho Pai Querê Mauá Salto Pilão Simplicio Investment (R$ bn) /29

14 Pampeana ELECTRICITY GENERATION SMALL HYDRO PLANTS (PCH s) São Domingos II Investment (R$ bn) ,163 Pedra Furada Goiandira Varginha Santa Fé Porto das Pedras Nova Aurora Barra Escondida Arvoredo Pedra do Garrafão Pirapetinga Power (MW) 282 Ibirama Piedade Santa Luzia Alto 14/29

15 Boa Vista RIO BRILHANTE F. II Costa Pinto BC Iacanga Goiânia II Quirinópolis2 (BC) RIO BRILHANTE F. I São João da Boa Vista Santa Cruz AB F.I Power (MW) 8,767 Santa Isabel BC Nova Olinda Pioneiros II BC Ferrari Santa Cruz AB F.II Colorado BC ELECTRICITY GENERATION THERMAL PLANTS Itapebi Termomaranhão Tocantinópolis Palmeiras de Goiás Três Lagoas Bonfim BARCARENA Xanxerê Candiota III C Maracanaú II Maracanaú I MPX Cubatão GN Rafard BC Ester Flórida Paulista BC Termomanaus Pau Ferro I Quatá LAGOA DA PRATA F. I LAGOA DA PRATA F. II São José BC São João Biogás Termoparaíba UTN ANGRA III Vale do Açu-Gás Do Atlântico Baia Formosa Campina Grande Camaçari Muricy I Camaçari Polo de Apoio I Global I Global II Potiguar III Termonordeste Suapé II Monte Pascoal Viana Interlagos Investment (R$ bn) ,726 15/29

16 TRANSMISSION LINES Interligação N-NE Colinas São João do Piauí São Luis II São Luis III Interligação N-NE São João do Piauí - Milagres Juba - Jaurú Paraíso - Açu II Picos - Tauá Interligação N/CO Jauru - Samuel Estreito - Emborcação Itumbiara - Bom Despacho São Simão - Poços de Caldas Londrina - Maringá Cascavel Oeste Foz do Iguaçu N Ibicoara - Brumado II Jardim - Penedo Funil - Itapebi Maggi Nova Mutum Paracatu - Pirapora Mascarenhas - Verona Neves - Mesquita Campos - Macaé Estreito - Ribeirão Preto Works not yet begun Presidente Médici - Santa Cruz I Itararé - Jaguariaíva Curitiba - Bateias Campos Novos Nova Santa Rita 16/29

17 TRANSMISSION LINES Balsas - Ribeiro Gonçalves Tucuruí Manaus - Macapá P. Dutra Miranda II Açailândia P. Dutra Banabuíu - Mossoró Pau Ferro Santa Rita II Xingó - Angelim Interligação das Usinas do Madeira Porto Velho Araraquara SP Nova Mutum Sorriso - Sinop Eunápolis Teixeira de Freitas II Juina - Maggi - Juba Araraquara Nova Iguaçu Not yet tendered Foz do Iguaçu Cascavel Oeste Bateias Pilarzinho Curitiba Joinville Norte Jorge Lacerda B - Siderópolis 17/29

18 Legislation Law of 2004 Article 2 Holders of public electricity distribution service concessions, permissions and authorizations within the Brazilian national grid must ensure supply to the totality of their markets, by contracting under the regulations, by tender or auction... 18/29

19 Electricity purchasing pool Brazilian grid Belém São Luís Fortaleza Teresina Natal João Pessoa Recife Maceió Aracajú Cuiabá Salvador Campo Grande Goiânia Brasília Belo Horizonte Vitória São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Curitiba Florianópolis Porto Alegre Regulated Bilateral Purchase Contracts 19/29

20 Auctions for new generation plants Law 10848/2004 A 5 and A 3 Auctions Contracts for periods of 15 to 35 years Purchases in A 3 are limited to 2% of the load of the A 5 A-5 A-4 A-3 A-2 A-1 A 20/29

21 No of projects inscribed for the auctions Auction A-3 A-5 Alternative or reserve sources Year Nº Power (MW) Nº Power (MW) Nº Power (MW) , , , , , , , ,811 21/29

22 Auction of strategic projects Law 9478/97 CNPE Article 2 This Act creates the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE). It shall be attached to the Office of the President of the Republic and chaired by the Mining and Energy Minister. It shall have the duty of proposing to the President of the Republic national policies and specific measures for the purpose of:... IV -... Indicating projects which should have priority for tendering and implementation, in view of their strategic nature and their being in the public interest, so that such projects may ensure optimum balance between moderateness of tariffs and reliability of the Electricity System. 22/29

23 The Hydroelectric plants on the Madeira River LOCATION JIRAU HYDROLECETRI C PLANT SANTO ANTÔNIO HYDROELECTRIC PLANT 23/29

24 Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant Madeira River The location General data Installed capacity: 3,150.4 MW Rotor type: Bulb Number of units: 44 Power of each unit: 71,6 MW Physical guarantee: 2218 MW average Reference fall level: 13.9 m Normal max. W.L.: 70.0 m Concession auction Held on December 10, Regulated market purchase price R$/MWh or US$/MWh* Illustration of design 24/29 *1.68 R$ = 1.00 US$

25 Jirau Hydroelectric Plant Madeira River General data Installed capacity: 3,300 MW Rotor type: Bulb Number of units: 44 Power of each unit: 75 MW Physical guarantee: MW average Reference fall level: 15.2 m Normal max. W.L.: m Concession auction Held on May 19, 2008 Regulated market purchase price R$/MWh or US$/MWh * 25/29 *1.68 R$ = 1.00 US$

26 Integration of the Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires plants Expansion of connections, including Tucuruí-Macapá-Manaus Manaus B.Monte Itacaiunas S.Antônio Jirau Teles Pires 500 km Cuiabá Araraquara Atibaia N.Iguaçu 26/29

27 THE CHALLENGE To supply energy at moderate prices, in large enough quantity for the development of the nation, and in harmony with the principles of sustainable development 27/29

28 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética EPE The Brazilian Energy Research Company Av. Rio Branco nº 1 11th Floor Centro Rio de Janeiro José Carlos de Miranda Farias Director of Electricity Studies miranda.farias@epe.gov.br g{tç~á yéü çéâü à Åx tçw tààxçà ÉÇ 28/29