THE BRAZILIAN ELECTRIC SECTOR Challenges and Opportunities. Mauricio T. Tolmasquim CEO

Transcrição

1 THE BRAZILIAN ELECTRIC SECTOR Challenges and Opportunities Mauricio T. Tolmasquim CEO

2 General Characteristics Installed Cap. = 98,530 MW Hydroelectric = 73,559 MW 74.7 % Thermal = 22,964 MW 23.4 % Nuclear = 2,007 MW 1.9% Consumption Units = 57 millions Energy Production = 418 TWh/year (55% of South America) Peak Load = 61,780 MW (United Kingdom or Italy) João Generation: 85% Public owned 15 % Private owned Transmission: 43 utilities (80% private) Distribution: 64 utilities (80% private) Surface area: 8.5 million km² (= continental USA + 1/2 Alaska) Source: EPE 2007

3 National Power Grid Standalone Systems 4,000 km Existing System TL 230 kv : 36,104 km TL 345 kv : 8,973 km TL 440 kv : 6,791 km TL 500 kv : 29,222 km TL 600 kv : 1,612 km TL 750 kv : 2,698 km National Interconnected System Total : 85,400 km Source: EPE (2007)

4 Brazilian Power Grid at perspective, km

5 Brazilian Electric Power Balance Renewable Sources 88.2% Other Renewable Sources 5.0% Nuclear 3.3% Natural Gas 4.4% Oil 2.6% Coal 1.6% Hydraulic 83.2% Source: EPE - BEN 2007

6 Highlights of the Brazilian Electricity Sector Model

7 Issues on contracts All consumers must be totally covered by electricity contracts All contracts must be backed up by physical production capacity (security of supply) Reliance on long-term contracts (up to 30 years) but there is a spot market!

8 Two Contracting Enviroments COMPETITIVE GENERATION Supply prices resulting from auctions Supply prices freely negotiated Regulated Contracting Environment ACR D: retailers/captive consumers Free Contracting Environment ACL CL: free consumers D CL C (above 3 MW) C: traders

9 Generators must contract with all distributors, in proportion to their energy needs... G1 G2 Gk Wholesale Competition... Gn D1 D2 Dn... CL CL CL C Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR) Normal bilateral contracts auctions through CCEE contracting mechanism for long term Additional contracts for market adjustment auctions through CCEE Contracting up to 2 years Free Contracting Environment (ACL) Contracting at free contracting rule

10 Power Auctions Timeline Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law 10,848/2004 Auctions of A-5 and A-3 PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years Purchase in A-3 limited to 2% of the load from A-5 Purchase in A-5 Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia A-5 A-4 A-3 A-2 A-1 A Auctions carried out every year for the purchase of energy for regulated market

11 Types: Separate auctions for existing energy and new energy 3 years- and 5 years-ahead of start of supply Dutch Auction (the lower price wins) Buyers: Discos are responsible for load forecast They can pass through the contract costs to customers Bidders: Private or state-owned companies; Brazilian or Foreign Companies; Energy Sources: All the energy sources; Winners: Winners of new energy auctions will award long-term PPA's and hydro concessions Mitigation of environmental risks: Only projects with pre-approved environmental license are auctioned off Power Auctions

12 Power Auctions PPA Belém São Luís Teresina Fortaleza Natal João Pessoa Recife Maceió Aracajú Cuiabá Salvador Campo Grande Goiânia Brasília Belo Horizonte Vitória Curitiba São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Florianópolis Porto Alegre BILATERAL CONTRACTS

13 Auction Outcomes 4, , , Power Sold (TWh) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, Average Price (US$ cents/kwh) 1, (5L) H T H T H30 (2L) 2009-T15 (2L) 2010-H T H30fa 2010-OF T15(4L) 2011-H T T H H30(MAD) 2012-T15 Average Real Prices

14 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN BRAZILIAN ELECTRICITY SECTOR

15 New hydropower plants (HPP) Plant being built HPP Santo Antonio HPP Jirau HPP Cachoeirão HPP Toricoejo HPP Água Limpa HPP Juruena HPP Rondon II HPP Belo Monte HPP Dardanelos HPP Barra dos Coqueiros HPP Torixoréu HPP Caçu HPP Salto HPP Foz do Rio Claro HPP Tucano HPP SaTLo do Rio Verdinho HPP Porto Galeano Contracted by Auction Being planned HPP São Domingos HPP Baixo Iguaçu HPP Foz do Chapecó HPP Itapiranga HPP Passo São João HPP São José HPP 14 de julho HPP Serra Quebrada HPP Uruçui HPP Tupiratins HPP Novo Acordo HPP Tocantins HPP São Salvador HPP Monjolinho HPP Estreito HPP Cachoeira HPP Serra do Facão HPP Salto Pilão HPP Pai Querê HPP Castelhano HPP Estreito do Parnaiba HPP Ribeiro Gonçalves HPP Pedra Branca HPP Riacho Seco HPP Buriti Queimado HPP Mirador HPP Maranhão Baixo HPP Corumbá III HPP Batalha HPP Telêmaco Borba HPP Mauá HPP Retiro Baixo HPP Traíra II HPP Baú I HPP Baguari HPP Cambuci HPP Barra do Pomba HPP Barra do Braúna HPP Simplicio HPP São Miguel

16 New thermal-power plants (TPP) TPP Nova Olinda TPP Itapebi TPP Termomaranhão TPP Tocantinópolis TPP Boa Vista TPP Goiânia II TPP Quirinópolis (BC) TPP Rio Brilhante F. II TPP Rio Brilhante F. I TPP Três Lagoas TPP São João da Boa Vista TPP Santa Isabel BC TPP Costa Pinto BC TPP Ferrari TPP Pioneiros II BC TPP Bonfim Plant being built Contracted TPP Palmeiras de Goiás TPP Iacanga TPP Santa Cruz AB F.I TPP Santa Cruz AB F.II TPP Colorado BC TPP Xanxerê TPP Candiota III C TPP Maracanaú II TPP Termomanaus TPP Termoparaíba TPP Pau Ferro I TPP Potiguar III TPP Maracanaú I TPP Termonordeste TPP Vale do Açu-Gás TPP MPX TPP Baia Formosa TPP Campina Grande TPP Suape II TPP Monte Pascoal TPP Camaçari Muricy I TPP Camaçari Polo de Apoio I TPP Global I TPP Global II TPP Lagoa da Prata F. I TPP Lagoa da Prata F. II TPP Viana TPP São José BC TPP São João Biogás TPP Cubatão GN TPP Rafard BC TPP TPP Flórida QuatáPaulista BC BC TPP Ester TPP Quatá TPP Do Atlântico UTN Angra III

17 New power plants Hydro power plants: 59 new power plants Total installed capacity: 29,735 MW Total investments: US$ 34.6 billions Thermo power plants: 55 new power plants Total installed capacity: 8,279 MW Total investments: US$ 17.6 billions

18 Capacity Expansion Path 115,000 Average growth ( )= 3.9% a.a. Average growth ( )= 4.4% a.a. 2, ,000 5,337 2,773 4,067 95,000 2,425 3,429 85,000 75,000 65,000 55,000 6,872 3, , , ,125 5,438 96,285 2,578 90,669 92,856 4,353 83,797 80,315 2,687 2,327 72,299 74,877 1,106 67,946 2,929 65,259 61,826 62,932 59,897 58,

19 Madeira River Geographic Location Madeira River planned Hydro plants BOLIVIA Madeira River Santo Antônio Hydro Plant Jirau Hydro Plant JIRAU HYDRO PLANT (AS PLANNED)

20 Madeira River Hydropower Plant - Technical Data Technical Data Santo Antônio Hydroplant Jirau Hydroplant Installed Capacity (MW) Firm Energy (MW) Number of units Turbines type Unit Capacity (MW) 3,150 2, Bulb ,300 2, Bulb 75.0 Investments (US$ billions)

21 Belo Monte Hydropower Plant - Technical Data Technical Data Belo Monte Hydroplant (major) Belo Monte Hydroplant (additional) Belo Monte Hydroplant (Total) Installed Capacity (MW) 11, ,181 Firm Energy (MWmed) 4, ,796 Number of units Turbines type Francis Bulb Unit Capacity (MW) Investments (US$ billions) 7.0

22 Belo Monte Reservoir INITIAL PROJECT (CONCLUDED IN 1990) BELO MONTE PLANT BELA VISTA DAM Power = 11,000 MW Reservoir area = 1,225 km 2 ALTAMIRA ALDEIA PAQUIÇAMBA

23 CURRENT PROJECT (CONCLUDED IN 2002) Belo Monte Reservoir BELO MONTE PLANT BELA VISTA DAM Power = 11,181 MW Reservoir area = 440 km 2 ALTAMIRA SÍTIO PIMENTAL DAM ALDEIA PAQUIÇAMBA

24 Belo Monte Reservoir

25 Investments in electric power transmission lines (TL) Balsas - Ribeiro Gonçalves Açailândia P. Dutra TL Tucuruí Manaus - Macapá TL P. Dutra Miranda II Interligação N-NE TL Maggi Nova Mutum São Luis II São Luis III Picos - Tauá Nova Mutum Sorriso - Sinop TL Juba - Jauru TL Juina - Maggi - Juba TL Ji- Paraná Vilhena TL Interligação N/CO Being built Interligação das Usinas do Madeira Contracted by Auction Being prepared Itumbiara - Bom Despacho São Simão - Poços de Caldas Londrina - Maringá TL Norte - Sul III Banabuíu - Mossor Paraíso - Açu II Pau Ferro Santa Rita Xingó - Angelim Jardim - Penedo Ibicoara - Brumado I TL Eunápolis T. de Freitas Funil - Itapebi Paracatu - Pirapora Neves - Mesquita Mascarenhas - Verona TL Campos - Macaé TL Foz do Iguaçu Cascavel Oeste Cascavel Oeste Foz do Iguaçu N Videira Campos Novos Campos Novos Nova Santa Rita Presidente Médici - Santa Cruz I TL Estreito - Ribeirão Preto TL Estreito - Emborcação Araraquara Nova Iguaçu TL Itararé - Jaguariaíva Bateias Pilarzinho TL Curitiba - Bateias TL Curitiba Joinville Norte TL Desterro Palhoça TL Jorge Lacerda B - Siderópolis

26 Transmission Line Expansion 90,000 Average growth ( )= 2.5% a.a. Average growth ( )= 3.0% a.a. 85,000 2,426 2,292 80,000 2,313 2,495 75,000 4,979 70,000 1, ,473 77,485 79,798 82,293 84,719 65,000 60,000 72,506 3,077 70,033 69, , ,971 62,486 63,110 61,571 61,

27 New transmission lines Brazilian transmission system: 80 new projects (61 transmission lines and 19 substations) Target: 18,576 km total extension 12,360 km up to ,216 km after 2010 Total investments: US$ 12.6 billions US$ 9.0 billions up to 2010 US$ 3.6 billions after 2010

28 Tucuruí-Macapá-Manaus Connection It will connect systems located in the Amazon to the National Interconnected System Auction to be held in the first half of 2008 to start operation in Sep Nominal capacity: up to 1,730 MW Inhabitants benefited: more than 2.2 million people Investment costs: approximately US$ 2.1 Billion Avoided costs due to reduction in diesel oil consumption: US$ 1.2 Billion Environmental benefits: CO 2 emission reductions - (1 million t CO 2 per year)

29 Ten year expansion plan (Reference case) 500 kv 230 kv 1,472 km of double circuit from Tucuruí to Cariri (Manaus) (Four intermediate stations: Xingu, Jurupari, Oriximiná e Itacoatiara) 339 km of double circuit from Jurupari to Macapá (One intermediate station Laranjal)

30 Thank you! EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE Av. Rio Branco, 1 11 o andar Rio de Janeiro RJ Tel.: + 55 (21) Fax: + 55 (21)