Udo Sglavo Product Manager SAS EMEA Strategy Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

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Introducing SAS Forecast Server and SAS Forecast Studio Udo Sglavo Product

Agenda Managing The Future SAS Forecast Server Customer Success

4 Results Of Poor Forecasting Forecast Error Over-forecast Under-forecast Excess Inventory Inventory Holding Cost Transshipment cost Obsolescence Reduced Margin Order Expediting Cost Higher Product Cost Lost Sales Cost Lost Companion Product Sales Reduced Customer Satisfaction Taken from: How to measure the impact of a forecast error on an enterprise? by Kenneth B. Kahn Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Traditionally Companies have Used Microsoft Office Tools like Excel Used existing SCM or ERP systems Used gut feeling due to lack of analytical skills Used standalone forecasting packages Not

5 Traditionally Companies have Used Microsoft Office Tools like Excel Used existing SCM or ERP systems Used gut feeling due to lack of analytical skills Used standalone forecasting packages Not measured forecasting accuracy Had scalability problems: too many series to forecast Not incorporated promotions or other events (like public holidays) Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 5

SAS - Leading Analytical Software For More Than 27 Years Forecasting Solutions More that 6500 licenses worldwide for forecasting Industry awards and superior analyst

6 SAS - Leading Analytical Software For More Than 27 Years Forecasting Solutions More that 6500 licenses worldwide for forecasting Industry awards and superior analyst ratings for forecasting technology Highly sophisticated models to choose the best forecast method Associated with academia Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 6

7 Value Of Forecasting As Reported By Our Clients a payback of more than $6 million to date (Alcon) savings potential of at least 8.5 million (Europay) one percent reduction in forecast variance equals $200,000 in reduced expenses (Lubrizol) impact has to be in the millions (Salt River Project) reduced costs by up to 50 percent (Copenhagen Energy) 1% reduction in forecasting error can save a electricity supplier 2 million to 3 million per year (CGE&Y) predicted a saving of 400,000 per year (CartaSí ) Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 7

8 AMR Research: Accurate Demand Forecasting Seen Paying Big Dividends The analyst firm, Boston-based AMR Research, reports that companies with improved demand forecasting, on average, experience the following returns: 15% less inventory 17% better perfect order ratings 35% shorter cash-to-cash cycle times Taken from: Supply Chain Management Review, Vol. 2, Issue 6, June 28, 2004 (see also: Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 8

11 SAS Forecast Server Enterprise forecasting environment Automatic and interactive usage Business/novice forecasters Regular, repeated process Automated model building Experienced forecasters Interactive & automated model building Fully integrated into new SAS 9 architecture New GUI: SAS Forecast Studio Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 11

13 SAS Forecast Server Main Drivers Forecasting with inputs and calendar events Automatic selection Interactive events management (e.g. promotions) Identify Estimate Forecast Model families supported: Exponential Smoothing ARIMA and ARIMAX Unobserved components models (structural models) Intermittent demand models (e.g. Croston s method) Hierarchical forecasting and reconciliation techniques Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 13

14 SAS Forecast Server Main Drivers Several viewers to support interactive forecasting Export code window (batch job generator) Extendable via stored processes Batch code generation Manual overwrites of forecasts Forecasting by exception Very fast & scalable Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Let s Have A Look - Demo Copyright 2005,

19 Retail Challenge Solution Results Improve forecasting accuracy at the DC s Complicated by short life cycle products & seasonality Over 30,000 SKU s Automate forecasting process with SAS Forecasting solution Integrate solution with operational system Forecast accuracy has improved by over 50% Many forecasting solutions require some form of human intervention but we didn't want that. Our processes are heavily automated and the SAS solution allowed us to run our forecasting in the same way. - Alastair Breingan, Business Process Reengineering Manager Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Manufacturing Challenge Solution Results Enhance efficiency and increase profitability companywide

provides more accurate forecasts and is helping to improve the demand planning process, giving

Each one percent reduction in forecast variance equals $200,000 in reduced expenses as identified

20 Manufacturing Challenge Solution Results Enhance efficiency and increase profitability companywide by accurately predicting product demand and customer behavior The SAS Forecasting solution provides more accurate forecasts and is helping to improve the demand planning process, giving Lubrizol a clear view of the future Forecast accuracy has more than doubled. Each one percent reduction in forecast variance equals $200,000 in reduced expenses as identified by our planning and support group" - Robert Wojewodka, technology manager Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 20

21 Retail Challenge Solution Results Retailer of brand-name consumer electronics personal computers (PCs) entertainment software High inventory levels and unsatisfactory store instock performance which was attributed to poor forecasting Integrate with existing SCM system Automate forecasting process with SAS Forecasting solution Feed their existing SCM inventory planning system with accurate forecasts Met their goal of reducing forecasting error. Improvement in forecast accuracy should yield a multi-million reduction in inventory and more than one million bottom line impact Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 21

Takeaways Managing the future is a crucial activity Forecasting gives an unbiased "best guess" of what will happen driving all subsequent tasks Build on SAS 9 architecture SAS has the most complete

22 Takeaways Managing the future is a crucial activity Forecasting gives an unbiased "best guess" of what will happen driving all subsequent tasks Build on SAS 9 architecture SAS has the most complete forecasting offering in the market Designed for different types of users Automatic and interactive forecasting supported Designed for speed and scalability Based on forecasting process Copyright 2005, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 22

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