Energy + Industrial Processes and Product Use

Transcrição

1 IEE-USP/RCGI Workshop January 30 th, 2017 Estimation of Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Brazil ( ) Energy + Industrial Processes and Product Use David Tsai

2 SEEG partners Forestry Agriculture Energy Waste and LUC and IPPU

3 Profile of National GHG emissions by sector (IPCC) Paticipation on national GHG emission 100% 2004: Brazilian emissions peaks (3,8 GtCO 2 e*) 90% 80% 70% Deforestation rates falling fast Emissions stable between 0.8 and 1.0 GtCO 2 e IPCC Sectors Annual variation % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 78% 73% 70% 67% 67% 10% 12% 14% 15% 14% 54% 49% 47% 44% 47% 43% 46% 21% 22% 23% 23% 22% 23% 22% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 8% 10% 11% 13% 13% 18% 20% 21% 23% 23% 26% 24% Year LUC Agriculture Waste IPPU Energy (Total) -2,6% +1,2% +1,7% +4,7% +5,0% +0,2% *IPCC AR-2

4 Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO 2 e) Fugitive emissions 23 Mt (4%) Flare, venting, leaks, processing in refineries and platforms, coal mining methane emissions, etc Energy 454 Mt (82%) Fuel combustion 431 Mt (78%) Conversion of chemical energy into heat, movement and light IPPU 99 Mt (18%) Industrial processes 84 Mt (15%) Product use 15 Mt (3%) Chemical and physical transformation of matter HFCs, SF 6 in electrical equipment and burning of lubricants

5 Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO 2 e) Fugitive emissions 23 Mt (4%) O&G fugitives 12 Mt (2%) Coal 29 Mt (5%) Natural gas 82 Mt (15%) Transport 204 Mt (37%) Energy 454 Mt (82%) Fuel combustion 431 Mt (78%) Oil products 314 Mt (57%) Power generation 78 Mt (14%) Industry 171 Mt (31%) IPPU 99 Mt (18%) Industrial processes 84 Mt (15%) Product use 15 Mt (3%) Biomass 12 Mt (2%) Coal, carbonated rocks. oil products, natural gas, etc gasoline C and diesel (CH 4 e N 2 O) 6 Mt (1%) Households, commercial n public Agriculture Fuel production 54 Mt (10%) 27 Mt (5%) 19 Mt (4%)

6 BR Energy emissions x World Energy emissions (2014) Brasil 45% 27% 8% 20% Brazil França EUA 33% 42% 14% 19% 12% 28% 41% 10% Coal 14% Gas 16% Oil 70% Mundo 23% 24% 10% 42% Alemanha 21% 16% 18% 45% World Japão 18% 24% 10% 49% Oil 34% Índia China 11% 9% 28% 36% 9% 7% 52% 48% Coal 46% Gas 20% Transportes Indústria Outros Setores Geração de Eletricidade e Calor Source: IEA, 2016; (Indústria inclui consumo de energia na indústria, produção de combustíveis e consumo de combustíveis na produção de metais)

7 Fuel consumption in transportation Fuel consumption (Mtoe) Diesel (mineral) Δ ,7% Gasoline A -9,4% 15 Ethanol +18,6% Year Jet kerosene Biodiesel Natural gas Fuel oil +18,4%

8 Brazilian Transport GHG emissions breakdown Primary energy OIL 194 Mt (95%) NATURAL GAS 4 Mt (2%) GASOLINE C AND DIESEL (CH 4 e N 2 O) 5 Mt (3%) Secondary energy FUEL OIL 2 Mt (1%) DIESEL (MINERAL) 113 Mt (55%) GASOLINE 67 Mt (33%) JET KEROSENE 11 Mt (5%) Mode Vehicles Function WATER(*) 3 Mt (2%) RAIL 3 Mt (2%) ROAD 187 Mt (92%) AIR 11 Mt (5%) SHIPS LOCOMOTIVES TRUCKS 85 Mt (42%) BUSES 20 Mt (10%) LIGHT COMMERCIAL 13 Mt (7%) CARS 63 Mt (31%) MOTORCYCLES 6 Mt (3%) AIRPLANES FREIGHT 105 Mt (51%) PASSENGERS 99 Mt (49%) Total: 204 MtCO 2 e ** Fonte de dados: Balanço Energético Nacional (MME) e Inventário Nacional de Emissões Atmosféricas por Veículos Automotores Rodoviários (MMA) (*) Uma parcela do uso de combustíveis em embarcações decorre do transporte de passageiros. Devido a ausência de informações fundamentadas e a sua pouca importância no conjunto das emissões, optou-se por alocar as emissões deste modal no transporte de cargas (**) Incluídas as emissões do consumo de álcool hidratado no transporte rodoviário que correspondem a 1 Mt e as emissões do consumo de gasolina de aviação no transporte aéreo que correspondem a 0,1 Mt.

9 Freight transportation Participação dos modais no transporte de cargas Mode share in selected countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 8% 11% 32% 43% 53% 58% Road Modal rodoviário 60% 50% 40% 30% 81% 25% 11% 4% 17% Water Modal hidroviário 20% 10% 43% 46% 43% 25% Rail Modal ferroviário 0% Russia USA Canada Australia Brazil Rússia EUA Canadá Austrália Brasil Chart data source: Ministério das Cidades and Ministério dos Transportes (2013) Key questions: How to reduce Brazil s dependancy on road diesel? Can rail, and water transport be better explored?

10 Modal share and freight type in Brazil Total 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku Road (64,9%) Rail (15%) Coastline shipping (10,5%) Inland shipping (5,3%) Pipelines (4,4%) Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016) Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.

11 Modal share and freight type in Brazil Total 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku Road (64,9%) General cargo (54,2%) Rail (15%) Coastline shipping (10,5%) Inland shipping (5,3%) Pipelines (4,4%) Non-agriculture bulk solids (24,3%) Bulk liquids (14,9%) Agriculture bulk solids (4,4%) Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016) Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.

12 Power generation (TWh) Power supply by energy source Unfavorable meteorological conditions Total % 500 4% 428 1% 2% 400 Hydro % 62% 2001: Blackout 12% 23% Fossil fuels 100 Wind, biomass and solar 0 Nuclear Year

13 Power generation (TWh) Power generation from fossil fuels Natural gas (-2,0%) Oil products (-16,9%) Coal (+2,6%) Ano

14 Challenges for power generation Hydraulic potential located in high demand and rugged terrain areas is depleted; Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos Remaining hydraulic potential is located in the Amazon Basin: Due to terrain characteristics, low storaging capacity Undesired social and environmental impacts

15 Challenges for power generation Brazil has potential for solar, wind and biomass power generation Main challenges to be addressed: Stability of the Power System Costs and consumer pricing Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos

16 Major emitting industrial activities GHG emissions (MtCO 2 e) Metal industry Fuel production 40 Cement production Chemical industry Ano

17 Lessons learned Information and data disclosure Transparency of assumptions Ease of access for understanding information and methodology Opening to dialogue

18 Thank you!