MARKETBEAT PORTUGAL SPRING GDP GROWING Economy. A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication. A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

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1 MARKETBEAT PORTUGAL A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication SPRING 214 ART S BUSINESS & HOTEL CENTRE - LISBON GDP GROWING Economy According to the Bank of Portugal s December 213 issue of its Winter Economic Bulletin, 214 is likely to see an inflection in the Portuguese economy s growth curve. After a 3 year period of negative growth, domestic GDP is expected to grow.8% by the end of this year, followed by further growth of around 1.3% in 215. Forecasts for an economic upturn are based on a slight recovery in domestic demand, fuelled by a combination of the positive evolution of private consumption in 214 and higher imports. There will also be a general improvement in the balance of trade over the next few years, with export growth forecast to continue. The Winter projections incorporate the fiscal consolidation measures provided for in the State Budget for 214 with more moderate risk forecasts in comparison to past issues of the bulletin. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Annual rate of change - 21/215* % Annual Growth 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% * 214* 215* Private Consumption (1) Public Consumption (1) GDP (1) Unemployment Rate (2) Inflation (2) Source: INE; Bank of Portugal - Winter Bulletin (December 13); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (November 13) * Forecast (1) Annual Growth Rate (2) Current Rate A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication SPRING 214 1

2 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Private consumption, driven by a reduction in the household savings rate, is likely to increase from.3%, in 214 to.7% in 215. The evolution of public consumption is likely to remain in negative territory, with projections of minus 2.3% downsizing for 214 and minus.5% for 215. The evolution of inflation for the next two years incorporates a risk of deflation and is expected to have a nil value in 214 and a marginally positive value of 1.2% in 215. An improvement in conditions in the employment market is one of the assumptions upon which the Bank of Portugal has based its forecasts. According to the OECD, unemployment is likely to come down from 16.7% in 213 to 16.1% in 214 and 15.8% in 215. Although the Bank of Portugal s moderately positive outlook on domestic GDP growth is in line with the IMF and the European Commission, the OECD has adopted a more conservative approach, with a GDP growth estimate of no more than.4% while the nil rate of inflation expected by the Bank of Portugal PORTUGUESE ECONOMY S FORECASTS Annual rate of change - 213/ GDP (1) INFLATION (2) GDP (1) INFLATION (2) Bank of Portugal -1.5%.5%.8%.% EC -1.8%.6%.8% 1.% IMF -1.8%.6%.8% 1.% OECD -1.7%.5%.4%.6% Source: Bank of Portugal (December 13); EC - European Comission (November 13); IMF - International Monetary Fund (November 13); OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (November 13) (1) Annual Growth Rate (2) Current Rate has not been repeated by the other institutions. European Commission and IMF forecasts are for an inflation rate of 1% and the OECD also expects a positive evolution of prices but at no more than.6%. SIGNS OF RECOVERY Retail The first wisps of economic recovery were visible in 213, following a highly convoluted period of 4 years for the domestic retail sector, as evidenced by one of the sector s main indicators, in the form of its aggregate sales volume in the retail sales index. This indicator s evolution over the last few years provides a perfect picture of the retail market situation in Portugal, with successive falls, since January 21, only offset by the effect of the January/February sales. Although the index bottomed out again in December 213 (83 points), the average value of retail sales in 213 were only 2% below the average in 212, with an August peak of 89 points. The property sector kept pace with this evolution, evidencing a certain level of confidence displayed by several of the main operators in 213. Most retailers appeared to move into a new cycle last year, less geared to cost reductions and concentrating more on reinventing concepts in light of the new circumstances affecting the sector. Although, in most cases, not, as yet, having resumed their expansion strategies, most operators appear to have at least abandoned their options for shop closures and/or downsizing solutions. EVOLUTION OF RETAIL TRADE INDEX Seasonally adjusted and at constant prices - Base 21-21/ Source: INE Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Global index excluding fuel Food retail Non-food retail This new trend should, however, be viewed with a slightly jaundiced eye, as the road to full market recovery is likely to be a long one and the inflection of the growth curve far from risk-free. The fact that projects in the pipeline are at a standstill confirms that the main market players are well aware of the dangers lurking 2

3 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication in the shadows. The 3.65 million sq.m of retail GLA in Portugal, at the end of 213, reflects flatlining growth rates since 211, when the last major retail projects came onto the market. The expansion of AlgarveShopping was the only significant development in the country, in 213, a year in which not a single retail space opened. In pipeline terms, the only project currently under construction is the Alegro Setúbal. Developed by Immochan, this shopping centre, with a total GLA of 42,5 sq.m comprises the reconversion and expansion of Setúbal s Jumbo hypermarket, scheduled to open in the last quarter of the year. Other projects in the pipeline for the next few years are not expected to see the light of day before 216. RETAIL SCHEMES - TOTAL OFFER * GLA Growth (thousands of sq.m) * 215* 216* TOTAL GLA (sq.m) GLA GROWTH (sq,m) Accumulated GLA (millions of sq.m) Data published by APCC (Portuguese Association of Shopping Centres) 1, indicate a recovery of shopping centre operations, in 213, both in footfall and sales. The retail park market, as over the past few years, continues to be the sick man of the sector and was particularly laid low by the crisis, in which factory outlets came to the fore with an overall increase in footfall, broadening their consumer base and even recording greater demand from retailers. Owners of such formats, however, were forced to meet the crisis head on, owing to the extremely aggressive price cutting strategies of full price shops, in many cases operating virtually as outlets. High street retail in Lisbon and Porto remained dynamic throughout 213, with a visible increase of retailers in prime high street retail zones in both cities. 213 once again saw the arrival of several major international retailers in Portuguese streets, including Cartier, Max Mara, Aristocrazy and Penhalta in Lisbon s Avenida da Liberdade and Hugo by Hugo Boss, Max&Co and Diesel in Porto s Passeio dos Clérigos. The outlook for this sector, in 214, remains upbeat. Demand has been driven by luxury retailers whose clear favourite as the obvious choice for the expansion of their retail networks continues to be Lisbon. A highly positive performance in terms of tourism, in 213, and its consolidation prospects, in 214, have greatly contributed to the consistency of the recovery of high street retail in Lisbon and Porto city centres. Source: Cushman & Wakefield * Forecast Thousands of sq.m CURRENT AND EXPECTED GLA BY REGION (sq.m) - 213/216 1,2 1, North (excludes Greater Porto Centre Greater Lisbon Setúbal Greater Porto) Península Source: Cushman & Wakefield CURRENT GLA EXPECTED GLA APCC s FOOTFALL AND SALES INDEX Annual rate of change - 21/213 6% 4% 2% % -2% South Islands T4-1 T1-11 T2-11 T3-11 T4-11 T1-12 T2-12 T3-12 T4-12 T1-13 T2-13 T3-13 T4-13 Market rents in 213 provide a snapshot of the situation in the sector and how owners have adapted to new market circumstances. Prime rents in shopping centres were down for the first time since 1997, to 7/sq.m/month in mid year. Rents in retail parks and for high street retail operations in Porto s Santa Catarina zone also fell to 8.5/sq.m/month and 35/sq.m/month, respectively. The prime rent for high street retail, in Lisbon, was, in turn, up to 9/sq.m/month, at the end of the year. -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% Footfall Index Source: Portuguese Association of Shopping Centres Sales Index 1 Associação Portuguesa de Centros Comerciais (APCC) 3

4 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication As regards the sector s future evolution, the reduction of consumption will continue to be a conditioning factor over the next few years. Schemes will also have to meet the requirements of an increasingly choosy, more fickle clientele with greater curiosity in terms of new places, brands and sensations. Convenience, ease of purchase and the overall shopping experience will be the key variables in shoppers choices of a place to spend their hard earned cash. If the leeway for new development is clearly tight, rehabilitation, renovation and repositioning are the buzzwords for the future which leaves no time for standing still. The name of the game will be an increasing focus on innovation, quality and differentiation. In short, even subject to new paradigms, there will be no let-up in activity and the dynamics of supply and demand will set the pace for market performance. PRIME RENTS FORMAT /sq.m/month Shopping Centre 7. Retail Parks 8.5 High Street - Lisbon (Chiado) 9. High Street - Porto (Rua de Santa Catarina) 35. Source: Cushman & Wakefield VACANCY RATE CONTINUES TO ADJUST Offices Lisbon s office market, remained beset by a continued fall in demand, in 213, having posted its lowest ever take-up since records began. The economic crisis has forced companies to optimise their occupancy costs with a vengeance, with the trend towards renegotiations and/or space reductions as an area of permanent concern. The Lisbon office market - in saw 185 deals for an area of 77,8 sq.m. This is the lowest value since information on this indicator has been kept and is 24% down over 212. With a 13% improvement over the preceding year, the Western Corridor (zone 6) continued to take pride of place in terms of being the most sought after zones, with take-up of 27,3 sq.m. It was also the zone with the largest number of successful deal completions at 58, translating into an average transaction area of 47 sq.m. The main market deal in this zone was Novartis s occupancy of its own head offices in Taguspark with an area 6,7 sq.m. Parque das Nações (zone 5) kept pace with last year s volumes and was, once more, runner up as the second most sought after location with 32 contracts totalling 15,5 sq.m. This zone s main deal was the occupancy of 3,5 sq.m of the Explorer building by EDP Soluções Comerciais. TAKE-UP BY SEMESTER - 27/213 Transacted Area (thousands of sq.m) st Semester 2 nd Semester Source: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI Transacted Area (sq.m) TAKE-UP BY ZONE - 212/213 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone Source: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI 4

5 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication The Prime CBD (zone 1), although down 36% over the preceding year, posted a take-up rate of 13% for a total area of 9,9 sq.m, including 94 sq.m for PwC s expansion in the Sotto Mayor Palace. The CBD (zone 2) set the stage for the market s second largest deal, with Sonaecom s lease of 4, sq.m in the Picoas Plaza, comprising a significant part of the total area occupied in this zone, with 17 deals. The total number of 185 deals comprised an average area per deal of 423 sq.m, down 23% over the 551 sq.m posted in 212. This reflects the dominance of the number of small-to-medium sized transactions for spaces of less than 5 sq.m, which accounted for 79% of the market. GLA (sq.m) TRANSACTIONS BY DIMENSION , 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, , 1,1-2, 2,1-5, + 5, GLA (sq.m) Nr. Deals Source: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI Nr. Deals 5

6 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Adjustments were made to year 212 vacancy rates which ended 213 up at 12.2%, in spite of the low levels of demand recorded during the year. Vacancy rates were generally down in all but the non-consolidated zones (zone 7). The explanation may partly lie in the adjustments to the pipeline over the next few years. Only one half of the total 21,5 sq.m of completed spaces coming onto the market was actually available, with the remaining areas being pre-lets. VACANCY RATE - 212/213 25% 2% 15% 1% The Western Corridor zone (zone 6) continues to post the highest vacancy rate of 2.5%, as well as the largest figure of 188,5 sq.m for vacant areas. This area represents 34% of the total 559, sq.m of vacant spaces in Greater Lisbon. 5% % Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone There was a downwards trend in vacancy levels in Parque das Nações (zone 5) as a consolidated zone with a residual potential increase in its pipeline, in 213 and which is now the zone with the third largest availability rate of 12.8%. Second to pole has now been taken by the new office zones (zone 3). Six buildings, with an overall area of 21,5 sq.m, were completed in 213. The main completion was Novartis s new head offices in Taguspark, with 6,7 sq.m, developed by Taguspark itself and accounting for 31% of the new stock. The other completions were in the Prime CBD (zone 1) and CBD (zone 2) in the form of 14,8 sq.m in urban developments. Ongoing adjustments to the pipeline reflect developers wait-and-see approach. Of a total pipeline of 54,2 sq.m by 216, particular reference should be made to the CBD (zone 2), with nearly half of the new scheduled area comprising 23,6 sq.m. Amoreiras Jardim is the largest project under construction in this zone, with a planned area of 17,6 sq.m. The second most relevant project is EDP s future head office in the secondary office zones (zone 4), which is expected to account for 13,9 sq.m. Market prices have once again been forced downwards, with sharper adjustments in the case of average rents. The prime market rent remained unchanged at 18.5/sq.m/month, with average rents in zone 1 stabilising at 16/sq.m/month. Prime rents in Parque das Nações (zone 5) remained unchanged at 15/sq./m./month with a drop to 13.5/sq.m/month for average rents. Both prime and average rents in the Western Corridor (zone 6) were down to a 11/sq.m/month and 8/sq.m/month, respectively. Source: Cushman & Wakefield PIPELINE - 214/216 sq.m 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: Cushman & Wakefield RENTS Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 ZONE Average ( /sq.m/month) Prime ( /sq.m/month) Prime Central Business District Parque das Nações Out of Town Source: Cushman & Wakefield Domestic economic recovery - in is expected to have a gradual, positive impact on demand, sustained by greater market dynamism. Rents are expected to experience more of the same although occupancy costs are likely to increase in line with a progressive decrease in inducements offered by owners. Viewed against levels of demand, these prices are the result of most owners preference to protect returns from their properties. There has been greater rent flexibility, offset by give and take on contract terms, with longer grace periods, rent staging or contributions to relocation costs. 6

7 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication CONTINUING GROWTH IN EXPORTS Industrial In line with global economic indicators, there was a slight, albeit consistent recovery of output indicators in the industrial sector over the year. The evolution of the Manufacturing Industry Confidence Indicator - in the second half remained positive and although still in negative territory, at -1 points in December 213, has displayed a consistent recovery path over the last 2 years. The evolution of the trade balance is also indicative of the Portuguese economy s recovery path, with the business sector remaining committed to exports. Exports in 213 were 47 billion against a figure of 45 billion in the same period of 212. Positive export evolution was accompanied by a minor increase of imports, making an increasingly important contribution to narrowing the trade gap. At year end the deficit stood at 9.3 billion, which, when compared to the deficit of around 21.6 billion in 27, clearly indicates the recovery of Portugal s trade balance since the onset of crisis. Notwithstanding moderately encouraging industrial output indicators, their effects on the property market had still to be felt in 213. There continued to be a highly modest evolution of demand, with just a handful of deals taking place. Particular reference should be made to the relocation of Bomi Lusitana, a pharmaceutical sector company which vacated a space in Mem Martins in order to occupy a 9, sq.m warehouse in Montijo. Development activity in the pipeline, except for occasional, small own occupancy deals, remains at a standstill. Only the Port of Leixões Logistics Platform out of the major logistics platforms long planned for the country, has shown any signs of life. A contributory factor was the highly satisfactory performance of this port infrastructure, which, according to the most recent data, was ranked 123rd out of the top 125 world ports, in 212, overtaking the Port of Sines which was unable to secure a world ranking. As regards logistics projects for the Greater Lisbon zone under the much heralded Portugal Logistics Programme, the Castanheira do Ribatejo Logistics Programme failed to make any progress in construction, over 213 with the only development being an informal partnership with Gazeley as an important world player in the sector but which, to-date has failed to produce any construction. The Poceirão, Log Z Logistics Platform, is at a standstill, with no short term prospects of moving forward, owing to lack of finance. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY S CONFIDENCE INDICATOR - 29/213 BALANCE OF TRADE* - 27/213 Million * Seasonally adjusted - 3 months moving average Source: INE 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, Source: INE Exports Imports Trade Balance * Excludes services Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Expectations for the evolution of the sector in 214 are moderately positive, based on industrial output indicators and exports, as well as prospects for the positive growth of private consumption in 214, which are likely to drive logistics activity in the domestic market. However, the very low levels of demand recorded over the last few years have fuelled considerably higher vacancies and only a portion of the units already completed are likely to be occupied in 214, mainly in Greater Lisbon. The shortage of quality spaces in Greater Porto may bring some pressure to bear on demand and eventually supply and market prices. Another trend making its presence felt and which may drive the market is the positive evolution of online commerce which may create the need, in the near future, for warehousing in major consumption centres. In short, this year is expected to witness a recovery in activity in the industrial property sector, even if very slight. Jul-13 Oct-13 7

8 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication HIGHS IN ALL CATEGORIES Hotels The main domestic hotel indicators show an improvement of the tourism sector in 213, with most annual data during the period in question, peaking in all categories. EVOLUTION OF DOMESTIC TOURISM INDICATORS - 29/213 INDICATORS Var. % 212/13 Var. % 211/12 Guests (million) % -1.1% Bednights (million) %.6% Hotel revenues (million ) 1,764. 1,87.5 1,96. 1, , % -2.6% Revenues per bednight (million ) % -3.2% With growth of 1.4% in the number of bed nights over 212, the Azores posted the most positive evolution. This was followed by Madeira and the North, up 8.5% and 8.1% respectively. Lisbon and the Algarve also posted a positive evolution, as opposed to Central Portugal and the Alentejo as the only regions with a negative evolution in comparison to 212. BEDNIGHTS BY NON-RESIDENT IN HOTELS OTHERS 25% UK 24% Source: INE, ANA and ANAM; Cushman & Wakefield analysis Bed nights were up 5% over the preceding year to 41.7 million. Equally positive was the figure for guest numbers, up 4%, with domestic tourism establishments welcoming a total number of 14.4 million visitors. A lower tourist headcount is indicative of longer average stays and is positive to the extent that it suggests a greater source of indirect revenues from tourism, such as restaurants, retail and/or leisure. The evolution of total hotel sector income of 1,958 million, in 213, was also positive, as well as this variable s unit indicator, that reversed negative evolution of previous years, standing at 46.9 million. BEDNIGHTS IN HOTELS Annual rate of change - 211/213 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% NORTH CENTER LISBON ALENTEJO ALGARVE AZORES MADEIRA TOTAL Source: INE; Cushman & Wakefield analysis BRAZIL 4% IRELAND 4% ITALY 3% FRANCE 9% Source: INE; Cushman & Wakefield analysis NETHERLANDS 7% GERMANY 14% SPAIN 1% In terms of foreign demand, there was virtually no change in the distribution of tourists by nationality in comparison to the preceding year. The United Kingdom retained pride of place as Portugal s main feeder market with 24% of total bed nights followed by Germany and Spain with 14% and 1% of foreign demand. Special reference should be made to Brazil whose market share has been increasing in Portugal and which accounted for 4% of the total number of foreign tourists visiting the country in 213. The outlook for 214 is likely to be more of the same in terms of recovery trends in 213. The continued increase in the number of guests in domestic hotels and trend towards longer average stays, suggest that Portugal has increased its appeal in the tourism market although one area of concern continues to be lower returns from hotel operations, assessed on revenues per room night which are below levels of previous year. However, higher demand, whenever associated with a certain stagnation of supply, is likely to enable charges to continuously increase over the short term, adjusting operators smaller profit margins. 8

9 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication DEMAND STARTING TO INCREASE Residential Portugal s residential market showed some recovery, in 213, in line with the evolution of the economy. SIR 1 data suggests a slight upturn in demand for residential assets in 213 in spite of the significant cuts in household disposable income and the fact that bank loans are still expensive and hard to come by. The area analysed by this entity shows that the first 9 months of last year saw a 4% increase over 212 to sales of more than 3,2 homes in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. The increase in demand in the Porto Metropolitan Area was not so marked with 82 homes having been sold in Porto from January to September 213, up 18% year-on-year. RESIDENCIAL MARKET - LISBON AND PORTO METROPOLITAN AREAS - 27/213* Nr. of Houses Sold 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, * Lisbon MA - Nr. house sales Lisbon MA - house sales/sq.m Source: SIR; Cushman & Wakefield analysis * January to September Porto MA - Nr. house sales Porto MA - house sales/sq.m 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, This positive evolution of demand is partially explained by owners price adjustments over the last few years. Average unit prices, in 27, were 1,57/sq.m in Lisbon and 1,38 sq.m in Porto. Reference prices in September 213 were 1,28 /sq.m in Lisbon and 82/sq.m in Porto, with cumulative drops of 18.5% and 4% respectively over the last four years. House Sales per sq.m UNITARY VALUES OF MORTAGE HOUSING VALUATION ( /sq.m) - 29/213 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Source: INE; Cushman & Wakefield analysis Global Average - Porto MA Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Global Average - Lisbon MA Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Although the first effects of price adjustments in Portugal s residential market, since 27, appear to have been produced in 213, the volume of product still available in the market is not indicative of the sector s sustained recovery but merely an inflection of the trend to be confirmed by a similar level of performance, in 214. The outlook for the residential market, this year, is clouded in doubt. The recent occurrence of an increase of home purchases without a bank loan essentially private investors and partly justified by the Golden Visa effect is likely to be repeated over the course of 214. However the demand fuelled by this type of deal is still not sufficient to fuel an across-the-market upturn. Home purchases based on bank mortgage loans still drive demand in the urban residential market and a sustained upturn will only occur when Portuguese households once again have access to finance. INE data on average bank valuations also reflect negative price evolution, albeit less markedly so. The cumulative drops in the unit amount of bank valuations in the period , were 13.4% in the Lisbon and 13.1% in the Porto Metropolitan Areas, with unit amounts of 1,219/sq.m and 935/sq.m respectively, at the end of the year. 1 Residential Information System 9

10 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication RETURN OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS Investment There were two very different property investment scenarios, in 213. The market in the first nine months was at a standstill, with an almost total dearth of deals and demand from institutional investors virtually non-existent. Although domestic economic indicators and Portugal s public debt market performance began to fan the flames of economic recovery, the political crisis, in the Summer, raised questions over the government s stability, affecting the country s credibility in the eyes of institutional investors. The last quarter of the year, however, showed signs of what may be considered an upturn of property investment activity in Portugal. The successful outcome of the political crisis, continued improvement of economic indicators, greater public debt market stability and Portugal s good performance in terms of the adjustment programme, made important contributions to market recovery alongside renewed cross border demand and risk taking by international investors generally. Several property investment deals were made in the last quarter of the year, confirming institutional investors renewed interest in Portugal and an inflection of the negative evolution since 28. Investors, however, are still taking a wait-and-see approach, based on rent sustainability and yield requirements to offset greater than average risk-taking for Europe and the almost complete dearth of bank financing for the property business. Million COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT BY SEMESTER - 29/213 1,4 1,2 1, Source: Cushman & Wakefield st Semester 2 nd Semester January to December saw total transactions of 322 million in commercial property assets, triple the volume of 212 and the double over the year 211 figure of 167 million. These volumes, however, are still below the last ten year average of around 6 million. In spite of the fact that foreign investment is still down in comparison to the past, at 29% of total investment, the year was characterised by the return to the market of German property funds which are considered to be among the most risk averse. As regards the type of domestic investors in the market, Portuguese investment funds were the most active in terms of the number of deals, accounting for 3% of total investment. The 11 million average volume of commercial investment per deal confirms a more dynamic market, but still below the average for the last ten years. COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT BY SECTOR RETAIL 6% Source: Cushman & Wakefield OFFICES 38% INDUSTRIAL 2% The year s largest deal was Sonae Sierra s purchase of the remaining 5% of the CascaiShopping shopping centre from British company Rockspring, fuelling the retail sector s pole position, in 213, with 6% of total commercial investment. Office space, accounting for the second largest share, recorded the following large deals in the year - Mota-Engil s sale of the Báltico Office Center to German property investment fund Deka for 43 million and the Swiss investor AFFIA S purchase of the Espace and Explorer buildings in Parque das Nações for around 3 million. As regards market values, yields on prime products in the retail and industrial sectors remained stable although office sector yields, much more in demand by foreign investors, were down for the first time since 27, by 25 basis points. End of year prime yields were 7.5% for offices, 7.75% for shopping centres and 9.75% for the industrial sector. 1

11 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication PRIME YIELDS - 2/213 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Industrial (Gross Yield) Offices (Gross Yield) Shopping Centres (Net Yield) The outlook for 214, albeit positive, is constrained by the fact that Portugal is still working its way through its crisis. The success of the first Portuguese public debt auctions, a slight improvement in economic indicators, higher liquidity levels in Europe and major appeal of the European property market in the eyes of investors from other continents, may well fuel investment market activity in Portugal, albeit mostly restricted to prime products in Lisbon. The return of institutional investors is still to be confirmed, as is the continued - possibly more dynamic - interest of private investors, or family-offices, not only foreign (Spanish and Dutch) but also national. European Central Bank pressure on bank property portfolios should trigger an increase in property transactions however. Demand for this product is expected either from institutional investors motivated by the acquisition of debt portfolios (NPL s), with which the assets are associated; or the smaller transactions, of private investors of various nationalities. The latter, motivated by Golden Visas, is expected to play an important role as in 213. The office sector is likely to be most in demand, in conjunction with the high street retail segment in prime locations, the latter more in demand from private investors, with shopping centres likely to pick up later in the year if international demand patterns continue to develop as they have of late. The investment market is also likely to be driven by the enormous potential of the urban renewal sector in 214. Market values are expected to accompany the evolution of activity, and if an increase in demand is verified, prime yields may register a slight downwards correction. LEGISLATION Portugal s government remains committed to attracting more foreign investment to the country, having recently approved two new measures, comprising: i) Autorização de Rendimento para Efeitos de Investimento (Income Authorisation for Investment) and ii) Estatuto de Residente Não habitual (Non-Habitual Resident Status). The first measure was described in detail in our Spring 213 Marketbeat issue by the PLMJ law firm and is also referred to as Golden Visas. In this issue we have decided to publish a summary of the second measure, i.e. Non-Habitual Resident Status, with an input from the PLMJ law firm in addition to a new summary of the Income Authorisation for Investment. NON-HABITUAL RESIDENT* Singular persons who have not been taxed as fiscal residents in Portugal in the 5 years preceding the year in which they apply for this tax regime can apply for Non-Habitual Resident Status. They must register as fiscal residents in Portugal and apply for the said status. Residence on Portuguese territory, for fiscal purposes, may be acquired, in any year, when, inter alia, the taxpayer has remained on Portuguese territory for more than 183 consecutive or interspersed days; or, if having remained for a shorter period when the taxpayer, at 31 December of the said year, has a home whose conditions suggest that the intention is to maintain and use it as a regular place of residence, on Portuguese territory. Based on the Portuguese tax authorities acknowledgement of non-habitual resident status, taxpayers acquire the right to be taxed as non-habitual residents for a consecutive period of 1 years, after which they will be taxed under the general IRS Tax Code. The obtaining of non-habitual resident status enables fiscal benefits to be obtained on income from employment and self-employment, when obtained in Portugal from high value added activities (list 3 approved by a ministerial order issued by the Minister of Finance). In these cases, a reduced rate 4 of IRS of 2% will be applicable. Income from employment and self-employment obtained abroad from high value added activities (as listed above), is exempt from IRS, provided that specific conditions are met. Lastly, passive income such as pensions, interest, dividends, capital gains and other income from capital obtained abroad, may also be exempt from IRS in Portugal provided that specific conditions are met. 3 Architects, engineers, similar technicians; Visual artists, actors, musicians; Auditors, tax consultants; Doctors, dentists; University professors; Psychologists; the Professions, technical professions and the like; Senior managers; Investors, directors and managers. 4 In addition to the special rate of 2%, it may also include the extraordinary IRS surcharge of 3.5%. 11

12 SPRING 214 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication LEGAL RULES ON URBAN LETTING Period Renewal Cancellation Opposition Other forms of Indexing Tax Arrears - Right of Transfer of rent (prior to term) to renewal termination of of rent Tenant first refusal agreement upon (at term) the agreement the tenant s death RESIDENTIAL Fixed term At the discretion of the parties, but may not exceed 3 years. If the period is not stipulated, it will be deemed to have been made for a fixed 2 year term. Automatic at the end, for successive periods of the same duration, unless otherwise agreed. Only at the initiative of the tenant, at any time after 1/3 of the initial period of duration or current renewal period has elapsed (based on a specific advance notice to be given prior to the intended cancellation date). At the initiative of the landlord or tenant (based on a specific advance notice to be given prior to the end of the initial period or renewal). a) Revocation by agreement between the parties; b) Cancellation by one of the parties in the event of a breach by the other party; c) Lawful expiry, i.e. loss or destruction of the leased building, compulsory purchase, etc. At the discretion of the parties. In the event of any failure to stipulate the rent will be updated annually by the current coefficients published annually by the government, for the following calendar year. Stamp duty of 1% on the amount of the rent payable by landlord. VAT Rent/lease agreements are exempt from VAT although the parties may waive their right to exemption in certain circumstances. If a tenant is in arrears for a period of more than 8 days, the landlord, in addition to the rent, is entitled to an indemnity of 5% of the unpaid rent (or rents). A tenant has the right of first refusal to purchase or pay in kind for premises rented for more than 3 years. To a spouse living with the tenant or who has lived with the tenant in a de facto union for more than 1 year or who has shared board and lodging with the tenant for more than 1 year. Indeterminate No term. (However, if the parties do not make express reference to indeterminate duration, the agreement will be deemed to have been made for a fixed 2 year term. n.a. Tenant After the agreement has been in force for 6 months, without the need for any justification. Landlord i) when needing the home for own use or the use of his/her descendants in the 1st degree; ii) demolition or remodelling or major refurbishing works which require the property to be vacated*; iii) with the tenant being informed with advance notice of not less than 2 years. n.a. NON RESIDENTIAL PLEASE NOTE: May also be made for fixed or indeterminate periods. However, the rules on the duration, cancellation and opposition to renewal are at the discretion of the parties The parties can choose between fixed term and indeterminate regime. If fixed term regime is chosen, it is negotiated at the discretion of the parties. If the period is not stipulated, it will be considered to have been made for a fixed 5-year term. When the parties have opted for a fixed term agreement and the terms of renewal are at the discretion of the parties. If the period is not stipulated, the agreement will be deemed renewed for equal periods. At the discretion of the parties. If nothing is stipulated the dispositions related to residential rents apply. Termination by opposition will apply only if the parties have opted for a fixed term agreement and subject to the agreement reached between the parties or, if no agreement is reached, the provisions relating to residential rents. a) Revocation by agreement between the parties; b) Cancellation by one of the parties in the event of a breach by the other party; c) Lawful expiry, i.e. loss or destruction of the leased building, compulsory purchase, etc. At the discretion of the parties. In the event of any failure to stipulate the rent will be updated annually by the current coefficients published annually by the government, for the following calendar year. Stamp duty of 1% on the amount of the rent payable by landlord. VAT Rent/lease agreements are exempt from VAT although the parties may waive their right to exemption in certain circumstances. If a tenant is in arrears for a period of more than 8 days, the landlord, in addition to the rent, is entitled to an indemnity of 5% of the unpaid rent (or rents). A tenant has the right of first refusal to purchase or pay in kind for premises rented for more than 3 years. To successors who may, however, reject the transfer. * Cancellation subject to certain legal constraints OLD AGREEMENTS Owing to the changes to urban rent/lease legislation over the years, agreements for housing prior to 15 November 199 and agreements for non-housing purposes prior to 5 October 1995 are subject to certain constraints regarding the cancellation of the agreement, rent indexing and transmission of the agreement upon the tenant s death. In the case of the rules applicable to the transmission of the agreement upon the tenant s death, there are several specific features, both as regards housing rentals as in the case of non-housing rentals, in this latter case enshrining the principle of the expiry of the rental agreement upon the death of the original tenant, except for the existence of a successor who jointly operates, in conjunction with him/her an establishment operating on the premises. 12

13 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication RESIDENCE PERMITS FOR INVESTMENT PURPOSES* Temporary Residence Permits for Investment (RPIs) were designed to improve and simplify regulations on the issue of residence permits to foreign nationals intending to make the following investments in Portugal: (a) Capital transfers of at least 1,,; or (b) Creation of at least 1 jobs; or (c) Purchase of 5, or more in real estate which may later be rented out or used for agriculture, commerce or tourism. RPIs are valid for 1 year from issue and are renewable for successive periods of 2 years, provided that there have been no changes made to their issue requirements. For the issue of an RPI, foreign nationals must legalise their stay in Portugal within 9 days of first setting foot in the country (obtaining, when required, a short term Schengen visa issued by the Portuguese consulate in their home country) and provide proof of their investment in Portugal. To renew an RPI, applicants may need to show that they have complied with the following minimum stays: (i) 7 days in the first year and (ii) 14 days in each subsequent 2 year period. In addition to taxes on property purchases in Portugal (IMT, IMI, notarial expenses and registration fees) the Portuguese authorities will also charge for analysing and processing the issue of the RPI at a cost of around 5,7 per person and an annual renewal fee of 2,57. RPIs entitle investors to bring their family and entitle them to freedom of movement in the Schengen area. Legislation text supplied by PLMJ Law Firm CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD Cushman & Wakefield is one of the world s largest commercial real estate services firms. Founded in 1917, the firm has approximately 25 offices in 6 countries and more than 16, talented professionals. Cushman & Wakefield delivers integrated solutions by actively advising, implementing and managing on behalf of landlords, tenants, lenders and investors through every stage of the real estate process. These solutions include representing clients in the buying, selling, financing, leasing and managing of assets. The firm also provides valuation advice, strategic planning and research, portfolio analysis, and site selection and space location assistance, among many other advisory services. CONTACTS Managing Partner Eric van Leuven eric.vanleuven@eur.cushwake.com Retail Sandra Campos sandra.campos@eur.cushwake.com Offices Carlos Oliveira carlos.oliveira@eur.cushwake.com Industrial & Land Ana Gomes ana.gomes@eur.cushwake.com Capital Markets Luis Antunes luis.antunes@eur.cushwake.com Research & Consulting Marta Esteves Costa marta.costa@eur.cushwake.com Valuation & Advisory Ricardo Reis ricardo.reis@eur.cushwake.com Property & Asset Management Bruno Silva bruno.silva@eur.cushwake.com Project Management Matthew Smith matthew.smith@eur.cushwake.com Shopping Centre Management André Navarro andre.navarro@eur.cushwake.com For further information or additional copies of this or other reports, please contact: Filipa Mota Carmo, Marketing filipa.carmo@eur.cushwake.com Cushman & Wakefield Av. da Liberdade, 131 2º Lisbon Portugal Tel.: This document contains general information and it has been used by Cushman & Wakefield on the assumption that is it is correct and accurate. Cushman & Wakefield declines all responsibility if this is not the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental, or other conditions, and withdrawal without notice or at the request of our clients. 214 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. 13

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15 MARKETBEAT PORTUGAL Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield PRIMAVERA 214 ART S BUSINESS & HOTEL CENTRE - LISBOA PIB EM CRESCIMENTO Economia Segundo o Boletim Económico de Inverno, publicado pelo Banco de Portugal em dezembro de 213, a inversão da curva de crescimento da economia portuguesa deve acontecer já em 214. Após um período de 3 anos de evolução negativa, o PIB nacional deverá crescer,8% no final deste ano, seguido por novo crescimento em 215 na ordem dos 1,3%. As previsões de retoma da atividade económica têm por base uma recuperação ligeira da procura interna, através da evolução positiva do consumo privado já em 214, e um aumento das importações. O enquadramento de melhoria do saldo da balança comercial também se mantém para os próximos dois anos, com uma expetativa de manutenção do crescimento das exportações. As projeções de inverno incorporam as medidas de consolidação orçamental previstas no Orçamento de Estado para 214 e revestem-se de riscos de projeção mais moderados quando comparados com as edições anteriores do Boletim Económico. INDICADORES ECONÓMICOS Taxa de variação anual - 21/215* % Crescimento Anual 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% * 214* 215* Consumo Privado (1) Consumo Público (1) PIB (1) Taxa Desemprego (2) Inflação (2) Fonte: INE; Banco de Portugal - Boletim do Inverno (Dezembro 13); Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (Novembro 13) * Projeção (1) Taxa de Variação Anual (2) Taxa Efetiva Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield PRIMAVERA

16 PRIMAVERA 214 Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield O consumo privado, através de uma redução da taxa de poupança das famílias, deverá registar em 214 um crescimento de,3%, progredindo para,7% em 215. A evolução do consumo público deverá manter-se em terreno negativo, estando previsto uma contração de -2,3% para 214 e de -,5% para 215. A evolução da inflação para os próximos dois anos evidencia um risco de deflação, prevendo-se um valor nulo em 214 e marginalmente positivo, 1,2%, em 215. A melhoria das condições no mercado de trabalho é um dos pressupostos sobre os quais assentam as previsões do Banco de Portugal. De acordo com a OCDE, a taxa de desemprego em 214 deve ter uma correção ligeira, passando dos 16,7% verificados em 213 para os 16,1% em 214 e 15,8% em 215. As perspetivas moderadamente positivas do Banco de Portugal para o crescimento do PIB nacional estão em linha com as publicadas pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional e pela Comissão Europeia, enquanto que a OCDE assume uma postura mais conservadora, estimando um crescimento do PIB de apenas,4%. PROJEÇÕES PARA ECONOMIA PORTUGUESA Taxa de variação anual - 213/ PIB (1) INFLAÇÃO (2) PIB (1) INFLAÇÃO (2) Banco de Portugal -1,5%,5%,8%,% CE -1,8%,6%,8% 1,% FMI -1,8%,6%,8% 1,% OCDE -1,7%,5%,4%,6% Fonte: Banco de Portugal (Julho 13); CE - Comissão Europeia (Maio 13); FMI - Fundo Monetário Internacional (Junho 13); OCDE - Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (Maio 13) (1) Taxa de Variação Anual (2) Taxa Efetiva Em relação à inflação, a variação nula esperada para o Banco de Portugal não é confirmada pelas restantes instituições: a CE e o FMI projetam uma inflação de 1%, enquanto a OCDE espera também uma evolução positiva dos preços, mas de apenas,6%. SINAIS DE RECUPERAÇÃO Retalho Após um período de 4 anos bastante conturbado para o setor de retalho nacional, em 213 começaram a sentir-se sinais ténues de alguma recuperação, demonstrados por um dos principais indicadores deste setor, o seu volume agregado de vendas, refletido no índice de volume de negócios do comércio a retalho. A evolução deste indicador ao longo dos últimos anos é uma excelente forma de ilustrar a situação do mercado de retalho em Portugal. Desde janeiro de 21 que se registam quebras sucessivas no valor do índice, apenas contrariadas pelo efeito dos saldos nos meses de janeiro ou fevereiro. Ainda que em Dezembro de 213 se tenha atingido novo valor mínimo para este indicador (83 pontos), a média das vendas do setor de retalho em 213 situaram-se apenas 2% abaixo da média de 212, com o máximo do ano (89 pontos) a ser atingido em agosto. O setor imobiliário de retalho acompanhou esta mesma evolução, tendo sido possível vislumbrar ao longo de 213 alguma confiança por parte dos principais operadores. A maioria dos retalhistas parece ter iniciado no ano passado um novo ciclo, que está menos direcionado para a redução de custos e mais concentrado na reinvenção dos conceitos à luz da nova realidade do setor. É certo que na maioria dos casos as estratégias de expansão ÍNDICE DE VOLUME DE NEGÓCIOS NO COMÉRCIO A RETALHO - Corrigido da sazonalidade deflacionado - Base 21-21/ Fonte: INE Jan-1 Abr-1 Jul-1 Out-1 Jan-11 Abr-11 Total exceto combustíveis Produtos não alimentares exceto combustível Jul-11 Out-11 Jan-12 Abr-12 Jul-12 Out-12 Jan-13 Abr-13 Jul-13 Out-13 Produtos alimentares, bebidas e tabaco não foram ainda retomadas, mas o encerramento de lojas e/ou redução de áreas parece ser hoje uma opção descartada pela maioria dos operadores. 16

17 MARKETBEAT Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield CONJUNTOS COMERCIAIS - OFERTA TOTAL - 27/216* Milhares de m Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield * Estimativa Os principais intervenientes no mercado estão cientes das ameaças que ainda existem, facto que se confirma pela estagnação dos novos projetos em pipeline. A oferta de conjuntos comerciais em Portugal situava-se no final de 213 nos 3,65 milhões de m 2 de ABL, refletindo taxas de crescimento praticamente nulas desde 211, ano em que se deram as últimas inaugurações de grandes projetos comerciais. Ao longo de 213 não foi inaugurado no país nenhum novo conjunto comercial, registando-se apenas a expansão do AlgarveShopping. Milhares de m * 215* 216* Crescimento ABL (m 2 ) ABL Acumulada (m 2 ) ABL ATUAL E PREVISTA POR REGIÃO (m 2 ) 213/ Norte (exclui Grande Porto Centro Grande Lisboa Península de Grande Porto) Setúbal Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield ABL Atual ABL Prevista Esta nova tendência deve no entanto ser encarada com muita cautela, pois o caminho a percorrer até à recuperação plena do mercado adivinha-se ainda longo, e a confirmação da inversão da curva de crescimento reveste-se ainda de muitos riscos. No que se refere a evolução futura da oferta, o Alegro Setúbal é o único projeto atualmente em construção. Desenvolvido pela Immochan, este centro comercial, que resultará da reconversão Sul Ilhas 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, Milhões de m 2 e expansão do já existente Jumbo de Setúbal, deve inaugurar no último trimestre do ano com um total de 42.5 m 2 de ABL. Os restantes projetos planeados para os próximos anos não têm inauguração esperada antes de 216. ÍNDICES DE TRÁFEGO E VENDA APCC Taxa de variação anual - 21/213 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% T4-1 T1-11 T2-11 T3-11 T4-11 T1-12 T2-12 T3-12 T4-12 T1-13 T2-13 T3-13 T4-13 Índice de tráfego Fonte: Associação Portuguesa de Centros Comerciais Índice de vendas De acordo com os dados publicados pela Associação Portuguesa de Centros Comerciais, (APCC), a operação dos centros comerciais refletiu também uma recuperação ao longo de 213, tanto em termos de volume de visitantes como em vendas. O mercado dos retail parks mantém-se na situação adversa que tem vindo a verificar nos últimos anos, tendo sido especialmente afetado pela crise. Os factory outlets obtiveram na crise uma maior preponderância, aumentando no geral o seu fluxo de visitantes, alargando o seu leque de consumidores e registando mesmo uma maior procura por parte de retalhistas. No entanto o desafio da crise também foi colocado aos proprietários destes formatos, pelo facto de as lojas full price terem iniciado estratégias de preço extremamente agressivas que em muitos casos substituíram o papel das lojas outlet. O dinamismo no comércio de rua nas cidades de Lisboa e Porto manteve-se ao longo de 213, com um interesse visível dos retalhistas nas zonas prime de comércio de rua de ambas as cidades. Em 213 assistiu-se mais uma vez à abertura de grandes nomes do retalho internacional nas ruas portuguesas, como foi o caso da Cartier, Max Mara, Aristocrazy ou Penhalta na Avenida da Liberdade em Lisboa; ou da Hugo by Hugo Boss, Max&Co ou Diesel no Passeio dos Clérigos, no Porto. As perspetivas para este setor em 214 mantêm-se positivas, com uma procura muito impulsionada pelos operadores de luxo, que continuam a ver em Lisboa um destino claro para a expansão da sua rede de lojas. O desempenho muito positivo do setor de turismo em 213 e as perspetivas de consolidação em 214 são um importante 17

18 PRIMAVERA 214 Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield contributo para a recuperação sustentada do comércio de rua nos centros de Lisboa e Porto. As rendas do mercado ao longo de 213 retratam a situação do setor e a adaptação dos proprietários às novas condições de mercado. Pela primeira vez desde 1997, verificou-se uma quebra nos valores das rendas prime de centros comerciais, que a meio do ano desceram para os 7/m 2 /mês. Os retail parks e as lojas de rua no Porto, em Santa Catarina, verificaram também descidas, situando-se respetivamente nos 8,5/m 2 /mês e 35/m 2 /mês. O comércio de rua em Lisboa, por sua vez, registou uma subida no valor da renda prime, que se situava no final do ano nos 9/m 2 /mês. No que se refere à evolução futura do setor, a redução do consumo continuará a ser condicionante nos próximos anos. Por outro lado, os espaços terão que ir ao encontro de uma clientela cada vez mais exigente e menos fidelizada, com curiosidade por novos lugares, marcas e sensações. A conveniência, a facilidade da compra, e a experiência proporcionada serão variáveis determinantes na escolha de um qualquer local para o consumo. RENDAS PRIME FORMATO /m 2 /mês Centros Comerciais 7, Retail Parks 8,5 Comércio de Rua - Lisboa (Chiado) 9, Comércio de Rua - Porto (Rua de Santa Catarina) 35, Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield Se o espaço para a construção nova é manifestamente reduzido, reabilitação, renovação e reposicionamento serão as palavras de ordem num futuro que já começou. O enfoque terá que ser cada vez mais na inovação, qualidade e diferenciação. Em suma, ainda que dentro de novos paradigmas, a atividade irá manter-se e a dinâmica da oferta e da procura darão o mote ao desempenho do mercado. TAXA DE DESOCUPAÇÃO CONTINUA A AJUSTAR Escritórios Ao longo de 213 o mercado de escritórios de Lisboa continuou a ser marcado pela manutenção da quebra na procura, tendo apresentado o pior volume de absorção desde que há registo. A crise económica levou a que as empresas estejam fortemente orientadas para a otimização dos custos de ocupação, mantendo-se a tendência das renegociações e/ou redução da área ocupada. No ano de 213 houve 185 transações no mercado de escritórios de Lisboa, num total de 77.8 m 2. Este é o valor mais baixo desde que há registo do indicador, e representa uma quebra de 24% face a 212. Com um aumento de 13% face ao ano anterior, o Corredor Oeste (zona 6) manteve a sua primazia em termos de zona com maior procura, tendo tido uma absorção de 27.3 m 2. Foi a zona que apresentou igualmente o maior número de negócios fechados, 58, que se traduziram numa área média transacionada de 47 m 2. A principal transação ocorrida no mercado foi nesta zona a ocupação da Novartis da sua nova sede com 6.7 m 2 no Taguspark. O Parque das Nações (zona 5) foi novamente a segunda localização mais procurada, mantendo os volumes do ano anterior. No total transacionaram-se 15.5 m 2, distribuídos por 32 novos contratos. ABSORÇÃO POR SEMESTRE - 27/213 Área transacionada (milhares de m 2 ) º Semestre 2º Semestre Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI Área transacionada (m 2 ) ABSORÇÃO POR ZONA - 212/ Zona 1 Zona 2 Zona 3 Zona 4 Zona 5 Zona 6 Zona Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI 18

19 MARKETBEAT Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield O principal negócio desta zona foi a ocupação de 3.5 m 2 do edifício Explorer por parte da EDP Soluções Comerciais. O Prime CBD (zona 1) foi responsável por 13% da absorção registada, embora refletindo uma quebra de 36% face ao ano anterior. Foram ocupados 9.9 m 2, dos quais 94 m 2 correspondem à expansão da PwC no Palácio Sotto Mayor. O CBD (zona 2) foi palco da segunda maior transação do mercado, com a Sonaecom a arrendar 4. m 2 no Picoas Plaza, o que corresponde a uma parte significativa da área total ocupada nesta zona, onde ocorreram um total de 17 negócios. No total efetuaram-se 185 operações, o que corresponde a uma área média por transação de 423 m 2, 23% abaixo dos 551 m 2 verificados em 212. Tal reflete o domínio do número de ABL (m 2 ) TRANSAÇÕES POR DIMENSÃO ABL (m 2 ) Nº Transações Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield / LPI Nº Transações 19

20 PRIMAVERA 214 Uma publicação Cushman & Wakefield transações de pequena/média dimensão, com os espaços abaixo de 5 m 2 a representarem 79% do mercado. Apesar dos baixos níveis de procura verificados durante o ano, a taxa de desocupação corrigiu face a 212, situando-se no final de 213 nos 12,2%. Excetuando as zonas não consolidadas (zona 7), todas as restantes zonas assistiram a uma diminuição da sua desocupação, o que deverá ser em parte justificado pela correção da oferta futura ao longo dos últimos anos. De facto, entre o total de 21.5 m 2 de espaços concluídos a entrar no mercado apenas metade ficou disponível, tendo a restante área sido objeto de pré-arrendamento. O Corredor Oeste (zona 6) continua a apresentar a maior taxa de desocupação, 2,5%, assim como o maior volume de área vaga, m 2. Esta área representa 34% do total de 559. m 2 de espaços que se encontravam desocupados na Grande Lisboa. Sendo agora uma zona consolidada e onde é residual o potencial de aumento de oferta futura, o Parque das Nações (zona 5) refletiu em 213 a tendência de descida dos seus níveis de desocupação. Passou a ser a terceira zona com maior taxa de disponibilidade (12,8%), sendo a segunda posição agora ocupada pelas novas zonas de escritórios (zona 3). Ao longo de 213 foram concluídos 6 edifícios num total de 21.5 m 2. O principal edifício concluído, responsável por 31% da oferta nova, corresponde à nova sede da Novartis no Taguspark, com 6.7 m 2 e promovido pela própria entidade Taguspark. Os restantes edifícios concluídos localizam-se na zona do Prime CBD (zona 1) e CBD (zona 2) e foram alvo de reabilitação urbana, tendo um total de 14.8 m 2. Em termos de oferta futura, continua a observar-se uma correção, refletindo uma atitude cautelosa por parte dos promotores. Num total de 54.2 m 2 previstos até 216, o destaque vai para o CBD (zona 2), que representa perto de metade da área nova prevista, num total de 23.6 m 2. O maior projeto em construção localiza-se nesta zona, correspondendo ao Amoreiras Jardim, com uma área prevista de 17.6 m 2. O segundo projeto mais relevante é a futura sede da EDP nas zonas secundárias de escritórios (zona 4) e que deverá contar com 13.9 m 2. Os valores de mercado voltaram a sofrer correções em baixa, sendo estas maiores nas rendas médias. A renda prime do mercado manteve-se nos 18,5/m 2 /mês, tendo a renda média da zona 1 estabilizado nos 16/m 2 /mês. No Parque das Nações (zona 5) verificou-se a manutenção dos valores prime nos 15/m 2 /mês e uma descida dos valores médios para 13,5/m 2 /mês. Já o Corredor Oeste (zona 6) teve uma quebra em ambas as rendas, com a renda prime a situar-se nos 11/m 2 /mês e a renda média nos 8/m 2 /mês. Face aos níveis de procura verificados, estes valores são o resultado da opção por parte dos proprietários de defender a rentabilidade TAXA DE DESOCUPAÇÃO - 212/213 m 2 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield ESCRITÓRIOS GRANDE LISBOA OFERTA FUTURA - 214/ Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield RENDAS Zona 1 Zona 2 Zona 3 Zona 4 Zona 5 Zona 6 Zona 7 ZONA Média ( /m 2 /mês) Prime ( /m 2 /mês) Prime Central Business District 16, 18,5 Parque das Nações 13,5 15, Corredor Oeste 8, 11, Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield Zona 1 Zona 2 Zona 3 Zona 4 Zona 5 Zona 6 Zona dos seus imóveis. Verifica-se uma menor flexibilidade em termos de renda praticada, a qual é compensada por uma maior disponibilidade em fazer cedências ao nível de incentivos contratuais, como sejam períodos alargados de carência, escalonamento de rendas, ou contribuições para custos de relocalização. Prevê-se que ao longo de 214 a recuperação da conjuntura económica nacional venha a ter um impacto gradual e positivo na procura, sustentado por um maior movimento no mercado, inclusive de alguns processos de maior dimensão. Relativamente às rendas, antecipa-se uma manutenção das mesmas, embora os custos de ocupação devam vir a aumentar por via de uma progressiva diminuição dos incentivos oferecidos pelos proprietários. 2