MegaCidades e a Mudança Climática

Transcrição

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2 MegaCidades e a Mudança Climática

3 C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group

4 A Rede de Cidades C40 Addis Ababa Amsterdam Athens Austin Bangkok Barcelona Basel Beijing Berlin Bogota Buenos Aires Cairo Caracas Changwon Chicago Copenhagen Curitiba Delhi Dhaka Hanoi Heidelberg Ho Chi Minh City Hong Kong Houston Istanbul Jakarta Johannesburg Karachi Lagos Lima London Los Angeles Madrid

5 A importância da C40 8% of all humans 5% of global GHG emissions 21% $$$$$ of global GDP

6 A importância da C40 8% da população 5% da emissão global GEE 21% $$$$$ do PIB global

7 A importância da C40 1 BILHÃO DE TONS DE REDUÇÃO POTENCIAL

8 A importância da C40 1 BILHÃO DE TONS DE REDUÇÃO POTENCIAL

9 A importância da C40

10 A importância da C40

11 As cidades controlam e decidem City streets & parking Outdoor lighting Transit Residential waste Landfills Building regulation Water supply 87% 80% 63% 66% 60% 57% 60% City planning 50%

12 As cidades lideram as ações 4734 climate actions City streets & parking Outdoor lighting Transit Residential waste Landfills Building regulation Water supply City planning

13 O que a C40 realmente faz?

14 C40 cria REDES TEMÁTICAS INTERCÂMBIOS TÉCNICOS APOIO À PROJETOS PESQUISA & CONHECIMENTO

15 C40 promove APOIO DIRETO INTERCÂMBIOS TÉCNICOS APOIO À PROJETOS PESQUISA & CONHECIMENTO

16 C40 compartilha CONHECIMENTO INTERCÂMBIOS TÉCNICOS APOIO À PROJETOS PESQUISA & CONHECIMENTO

17 C40 está IMPACTANDO

18 World Bank to Ease Access to Climate Change Money - NYTim... Like 87K Bloomberg and Clinton Team Up to Fight Climate Change - N... CONNECT HOME PAGE TODAY'S PAPER VIDEO MOST POPULAR TIMES TOPICS Cidades estão liderando AGENDA ate Change: New ReportsSearch Underscore Role the Huffington PostOf Lo... World Bank to Ease Access to Climate Change Money - NYTim... Environment WORLD HOME PAGE TODAY'S PAPER VIDEO TION: U.S. Canada FR France US United States UK United Kingdom uary 28, 2012 MOST POPULAR U.S. N.Y. / REGION BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE ENVIRONMENT OPINION TIMES TOPICS Environmen World Bank to Help Cities Control Climate Change U.S. N.Y. / REGION BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO Published: June 1, 2011 Tackling Climate Change: New Reports Underscore Role Of Local Leaders a ome a fan ofmarket this SNAPSHOT rter U.S. EUROPE ASIA GET UPDATES FROM Lucia Subscribe 108 An Unlikely Power Duo Emerges in the Global Fight Against Climate Change 12, % 1, % A SPACE & COSMOS WORLD Cities From London to Portland Slash Emissions as UN Climat... S&P 500 SPORTS Search All NYTimes.com NNECT DOW HEALTH Subscribe: Home Delivery / Digital Log In Register Now Help TIMES TOPICS Environment HOME PAGE TODAY'S PAPER VIDEO MOST POPULAR Lucia Graves lucia@huffingtonpost.com WORLD U.S. N.Y. / REGION BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE HEALTH SPORTS OPINION ARTS STYLE TRAVEL JOBS REAL ESTATE Become a fan of this ENVIRONMENT SPACE & COSMOS reporter Subscribe 108 GET UPDATES FROM Lucia ch the Huffington Post Su SÃO PAULO, Brazil The World Bank signed an agreement on Advertise on NYTimes.com Wednesday with mayors from 40 of the world s biggest cities to work on technical and financial assistance for projects to minimize the Log in to what your friends effects ofsee climate change. Log In With Facebook are sharing on nytimes.com. Privacy Policy What s This? HEALTH ENVIRONMENT RECOMMEND TWITTER LINKEDIN SIGN IN TO The deal, announced at the C40 large PRINT cities climate meeting here, will ease REPRINTS access to financing for climate-changestoxx 50 SHARE reduction projects. It was hailed by Lunar Colonies, environment. GoLunacy to Blogand» many Sign in of the mayors, including Michael LossesVideos Maps News Shopping Gmail More +You Search Images R. Bloomberg of New York City, and by former President Bill Clinton, who Search News, Quotes and Opinion Wildlife Activists By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO Search News Hosted by attended the event as part of a new partnership with Mr. Bloomberg. Follow Lone June 1, 2011 Latin America! MorePublished: Stories ckling Climate Change: New Reports Underscore Role Of NASDAQ 2, % AFP: Mayors reach climate Adeal with World Bank What s Popular blog about energy Now ocal Leaders Gold 1, % EUR : USD % Nasdaq 2, % Dow 12, % S&P 500 1, % FTSE 100 5, % and the Our Company Professional Anywhere Related News: Environment! Executive! Africa! Canada! Europe! France! Germany! U.K. & Ireland! U.S.! Energy Markets! Municipal Bonds! Real Estate! Technology World Bank to Help Cities Control Climate C Wolf s Trek Into The World Bank announcement is terrifically important, Mr. Clinton said. It will give private capital. SÃO PAULO, Brazil The World Bank signed an agreement on Sumitomo tocalifornia Invest $322 Million in Brazilian Plant, credibility to these projects to get Estado Says Mayors reach climate deal with World Bank Cities From London to Portland Slash Q Wednesday from 40 of the work 0 with agreement willmayors make it easier for investors whoworld s have beenbiggest hesitant tocities financeto projects Emissions as UN Climate Envoys Bicker (AFP) Jun 1, 2011The Ads by Google what's this? to assess city action plans by providing a standard approach, said Robert B. Zoellick, the on technical and financial assistance for projects to minimize the Vekselberg Says He ll Drop Gazprom Power Merger If No DealLeaders Soon SAO PAULO of thegrants C40 Mayors Summit on climate change said Wednesday the World Bank s president. NYSERDA First Posted: 5/31/11 09:02 PM ET Updated: 7/31/11 06:12 AM ET group hadqreached alearn financing agreement with the World Bank to help the world's major cities By Alex Morales - May 31, :31 AM ET effects of climate change. How You Can Save Money & Energy With Our Free ct better adapt to climate change Solutions Kit. 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Bloomberg announced a merger of initiatives in New York last month. Q cities which totaled $6.4 billion last year. Mr.access Zoellick saidfinancing the bank hoped use that money to The 40 major whose mayors are attending the Sao Paulo conference -- including and the nationalit, governments continue theirmichael excruciatingly frustrating mly believe that if youmore canʼt measure it, BRODER you While canʼt manage said New York City Mayor Bloomberg in a statement Alzheimer's Foundation By JOHN M. York, Jakarta, Mexico City, Berlin, Barcelona, Rio de Janeiro and Paris -are responsible for hailed 12 attract in private capital. Rate These Storiesas much as $50 billion More News» reduction projects. It was by New Y environment. uesday. That is trueprint in business and it is true government. Only regularly and rigorously measuring and analysing Gathered frommay areas representing 300 millionchange, peoplebyand tenin percent of global emissions, the reports show the of impact Alzheimer's Foundation of America Reach out to us for help... Published: 28,dialog 2011 in on percent global greenhouse emissions. climate we the cities areco2 acting, Portland, efforts can we learn what works, what doesnʼt and why, and take effective action." alzfdn.org participating cities have on climate change outline said the role localinterview. leaders could in reducing their citiesʼ Advertisement carbongo to What Blog»is holding back the sustainable clean Oregon Mayor Samand Adams in an It splay sheer common revolution for a lot of mayors andbloom of the mayors, including Michael "Cities are also paying big price of climate change," saidmany Worldtechnology Bank president Robert Zoellick. RECOMMEND trated by partisan bickering WASHINGTON and stalemate in Congress, localand leaders at the biennialhave Conference of Mayors, a Bill Clinton Michael R.fourth Bloomberg Summ Posted: 5/31/11 Q 09:02 PM ET Updated: 7/31/11 06:12 AM ET

19 PROGRAMA DE TESTES COM ONIBUS ELÉTRICOS E HIBRÍDOS NA AMÉRICA LATINA Bogotá, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, Santiago e São Paulo

20 PROGRAMA DE TESTES: Emissão de poluentes locais (HC, CO, NOx, PM); Teste piloto com diesel de cana. Eficiência Energética das diferentes tecnologias (motores combustão e elétricos bateria e trólebus). Medição de ruídos e poluição interna ônibus. Viabilidade econômica das tecnologias e ciclo de vida total em cada cidade.

21 Tecnologias testadas? Total de 16 ônibus (diesel, híbridos, trólebus e elétrico a bateria).

22 C40-CCI HEBTP: São Paulo (Fase 1)

23 Como são feitos os testes? Exemplo de medição das emissões segundo a segundo em ônibus rodando por linha comercial com carga máxima. 23

24 C40-CCI HEBTP: São Paulo Quando? Agosto-Setembro, 2011 Agosto, 2012 Quantos ônibus? Dois ônibus híbrido, 12m (Volvo e Eletra) (tecnologia em paralelo e outro em série) Dois sombra diesel 12m & outro 18m Trolebus (Eletra)

25 Ônibus testados

26 Três trechos principais da rota.

27 Average FE [km/lt] Eficiência energética em São Paulo 1 Campanha com híbrido paralelo (testes com diesel cana) ,81 1,57 1,37 2, HB1 DB1 DB2 HB1-sc Diesel Padron (DB1) Diesel 18m (DB2) Hibrido Paralelo 12m (HB1) HB1-sc : 100% DIESEL CANA 27

28 Average FE [km/lt] Eficiência energética em São Paulo 2 Campanha com híbrido serie e trólebus ,57 1,37 2,81 1,98 3,47 2, DB1 DB2 HB1 HB2 TB1-1 TB1-2 Diesel (DB1 e DB2) Hibrido Paralelo (HB1) e Hibrido serie (HB2) Trólebus (TB1-1-Energia; TB2-Custos),

29 Measured FE [km/l] Normalized FE*pax São Paulo: Eficiência energética padronizada pela capacidade de passageiros máxima Articulado , DB1 DB2 HB1 HB2 TB1-1 TB1-2 FE [km/l] FE*pax Diesel 13,2m: 76 passageiros - Diesel 18m: 109 passageiros Hibrido1: 84 passageiros - Hibrido2:69 passageiros - Trolebus: 81 passageiros

30 Normalized Emissions Sao Paulo com emissões padronizadas. Comparação Híbridos x Diesel CO NOx NO2 CO2 DB1 HB1 HB2

31 PM1.5 [g/km] SP: PM1.5 Articulado/ Padron- 50% % -97% 0.00 HB1 HB1 SC DB1 DB2 PM1.5 Dek [g/km]

32 NOx [g/km] SP: óxido de nitrogênio % HB1 HB1 SC DB1 DB2 NOx [g/km]

33 Normalized Emissions Teste piloto com 100% diesel cana CO NOx CO2 PM1.5 NO2 HB1-diesel HB1-sc diesel 33

34 Emissions [g/km] Diesel em subidas e descidas Slope upward 1 Slope downward 1 Slope upward 2 Slope downward 2 0 THC*10 CO NOx/2 CO2/100 PM1.5*10

35 Emissions [g/km] Hibridos em subidas e descidas Slope upward 1 Slope downward 1 Slope upward 2 Slope downward 2 0 THC*10 CO NOx/2 CO2/100 PM1.5*10 Ampla vantagem dos híbridos (e elétricos) nas descidas

36 Emissions [g/km] Hibridos em subidas e descidas DB1 upward DB1 downward HB1 upward HB1 downward THC*10 CO NOx/2 CO2/100 PM1.5*10 Comparison of emissions up- and downhill between DB1 and HB1 (DB1 upward used as reference)

37 Fuel Consump on Reference DB1=0% Consumo de combustível padronizado dos Híbridos e Trólebus em relação ao ônibus diesel base 0% -10% HB1 HB2 TB1-1 TB % -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% FC FC/pax Energia Custo

38 Fuel Efficiency Reference DB1=0% Eficiência do Ônibus Hibrido e Trólebus Medida km/litro ou kwh 160% 140% FE FE*pax Energia 120% 100% 80% Custo: 60% 40% 20% 0% HB1 HB2 TB1-1 TB1-2

39 CO2 [g/s] Demanda Energética (Bin) Vehycle Specific Power HB1 HB2 DB1 DB BIN 9 BIN 10 BIN 11 BIN 12 BIN 13 BIN 14 39

40 NOx [g/s] Demanda Energética (Bin) Vehycle Specific Power SCR HB1 HB2 DB1 DB BIN 9 BIN 10 BIN 11 BIN 12 BIN 13 BIN 14 40

41 CO2 [g/s] Demanda Energética (Bin) Vehycle Specific Power HB1 HB1 SC DB1 DB2 5 Diesel Cana 0 BIN 9 BIN 10 BIN 11 BIN 12 BIN 13 BIN 14 BIN 11 Inicio da aceleração

42 C40-CCI HEBTP: Bogota Quando? Maio- Junho- Julho 2012: duas campanhas. Quantos? Dois ônibus híbridos paralelos, 12m (Volvo e YoungMan) Sombra ônibus diesel, 12m, Euro II. Ônibus elétrico à baterias de fosfato ferro.(byd)

43 Tecnologias testadas?

44 Bogotá: emissões (g/km) Bus THC CO NO x CO 2 PM 2.5 Diesel 0,51 6,1 11, ,06 Híbrido 0,04 2,9 1, ,02 % reducao -92% -53% -84% -11% -62% Ônibus elétrico: sem emissões de poluentes

45 Normalized Emissions Bogotá: emissões normalizadas THC CO NOx CO2 PM2.5 DB1 HB2 HB1

46 Cabin PM [mg/m3] Noise [db] Bogotá: ruídos de cabine em rota(db) DB1 EB1 HB1 Aerosol em cabine PM Time [sec] DB1 EB1 HB1

47 Fuel Consump on Reference DB1 = 0% Bogotá: Consumo Custo Energia 0% -10% HB1 EB1-1 EB % -30% -40% -34% -31% -50% -60% -57% -70% -80% -90% FC FC/pax -72% -81% -71%

48 Fuel Efficiency Reference DB1 = 0% Bogotá: Eficiência Energia 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% FE FE*pax 435% Custo 254% 249% 131% 49% 44% HB1 EB1-1 EB1-2

49 Bogotá: Eficiência & Consumo Ônibus Eficiência (km/gl) Eficiência % Consumo. (gl/ 100km) Consumo. % Diesel 7,80 0% 13,3 0% Híbrido 11,58 49% /die. 8,9-34% vs eléc. 254% / die. -72% vs Diesel Elétrico 27,63 139% / hb 1 3,8-57% vs hb 1

50 Bogotá: Economizado Ônibus US$ pax / 100 km US$ consum. / 100 km Economizado em 100 km, % Diesel $ 0, Híbrido 1 $ 0, % Elétrico $ 0,3 17 Gallon: $ % / Die. -57% / hb.1

51 Conclusão geral sobre consumo energético Trólebus Redução de 56% Elétrico Bateria Ferro Redução de 81% Elétrico Bateria Lítio Redução 73% Híbridos: Redução média de 31%.

52 Fuel Consump on Reference DB1 = 0% Maior eficiência nos Ônibus Hibridos e Elétricos Litro ou kilowatts/ kilometro Híbrido Elétrico Valor Financeiro Valor Energético 0% -10% HB1 EB1-1 EB % -30% -40% -34% -31% -50% -60% -57% -70% -80% -90% FC FC/pax -72% -81% -71%

53 Conclusões iniciais Desafio de treinamentos dos motoristas (variação de consumo em 10% diferentes motoristas) Significativa redução na emissões de poluentes locais nos híbridos (e gases efeito estufa GEE). Zero emissões de poluentes locais nos ônibus elétricos (muito baixa emissão de GEE). Custo de operação e manutenção afetam ciclos econômicos mais que custos de capital.

54 Conclusões iniciais Aumento de velocidade gera redução significativa no consumo e nas emissões (IMPORTANCIA BRT). Grande economia de energia com eletricidade. Híbridos entre 31% a 39% em planície. Trólebus geram redução de 56% no consumo. Ônibus elétricos teve redução média de 77%. Ônibus elétricos com baterias de fosfato de ferro foram a tecnologia com melhor desempenho de todas (81% redução consumo). Alguns tipos de elétricos não precisam de subsidios

55 Nov/Dez 2012: Visita tecnica Cidade do México; Gotemburgo; Estocolmo; Londres Xangai; Shenzhen, Changsa; Hong Kong HIBRIDOS BATERIAS ELETRICOS

56 HYBRID ELECTRIC BUS TEST PROGRAM IN LATIN AMERICA: Economic Analysis of the Program Prepared by:

57 Lower energy and maintenance costs reduce lifecycle costs for hybrid and electric buses compared to diesel buses Lifecycle Costs ( 000 USD, 10-Year Net Present Value) Bogota year total Taxes Maintenance Fuel/Energy Financing Capital investment and salvage value Diesel Hybrid High Case Hybrid Low Case Electric Financing Maintenance costs Salvage Value % interest 10 year term (baseline) Zero 6% interest 10 year term +20% higher than diesel 10% of battery value 6% interest 10 year term -10% lower than diesel 30% of battery value 6% interest 10 year term -20% lower than diesel 30% of battery value Hybrid and electric buses have lower lifecycle costs as scale and learning effects drive down maintenance costs Preferential financing can speed adoption, scale, and learning Notes: Bus costs/initial taxes are as follows: Diesel ($180K/$29K), Hybrid ($290K/$5K), Electric ($450K/$23K). Battery total value for hybrids are $100K. Battery total value for electrics is $203K. Salvage value represents % of total value discounted to yea zero. Capital investment includes deduction for salvage value; Taxes include initial taxes and annual taxes related to bus ownership

58 Assumes electric buses are partially produced/assembled locally, bypassing most import taxes. 10-year diesel costs includes purchase/resale of new bus after 5 years of operation. Capital investment includes deduction for salvage value; Taxes include annual taxes related to bus ownership. Bus costs/initial taxes are as follows: Diesel (BRL 329K/ BRL 140K), Hybrid (BRL 493K/BRL 151K), Electric (BRL 735K/BRL 175K). Battery total value for hybrids are BRL 163K; For electrics value is BRL 340K. Salvage value represents % of total value discounted to year zero. Electrics achieve savings of ~20% compared to diesel assuming partially local production and Rio de Janeiro Lifecycle Costs ( 000 BRL, 10-Year Net Present Value) year total Taxes Maintenance Fuel/Energy Financing Capital investment and salvage value Financing Maintenance costs Salvage Value Diesel 10% interest 5 year term (baseline) 30% of bus value (BRL 123,280) Hybrid High Case 5% interest 10 year term +20% higher than diesel 10% of battery value Hybrid Low Case 5% interest 10 year term -10% lower than diesel 30% of battery value Electric 1,246 1,194 1,115 1,054 5% interest 10 year term -50% lower than diesel 30% of battery value Electric buses achieve significant savings in lifecycle costs compared to diesel Hybrids are less costly than diesel even accounting for higher maintenance costs

59 Lifecycle costs of hybrid and electric buses are lower than costs for diesel buses due to preferential financing options Lifecycle Costs ( 000 BRL, 10-Year Net Present Value) São Paulo year total Taxes Maintenance Fuel/Energy Financing Capital investment and salvage value Financing Maintenance costs Salvage Value Diese Hybrid High Case Hybrid Low Case Electric l 1,367 1,321 1,242 1,018 10% interest 5 year term (baseline) 20% of bus value (BRL 98,600) 5% interest 10 year term +20% higher than diesel 10% of battery value 5% interest 10 year term -10% lower than diesel 30% of battery value 5% interest 10 year term -50% lower than diesel 30% of battery value Electric buses achieve ~30% lower lifecycle costs than diesel Even with 20% higher maintenance costs, hybrids are more attractive than diesel Assumes electric buses are partially produced/assembled locally. 10-year diesel costs includes purchase/resale of new bus after 5 years of operation. Capital investment includes deduction for salvage value; Taxes include annual taxes related to bus ownership. Bus costs/initial taxes are as follows: Diesel (BRL 296K/ BRL 123K), Hybrid (BRL 493K/BRL 146K), Electric (BRL 735K/BRL 175K). Battery total value for hybrids are BRL 163K; For electrics value is BRL 340K. Salvage value represents % of total value discounted to year zero.

60 São Paulo uptake: Policy and favorable financing can drive uptake and conversion to hybrid and electric buses São Paulo Primary Drivers of Uptake in São Paulo Policy Enforcement of existing Climate Change Law Law requires bus operators to switch away from fossilbased fuels entirely by 2018; Legislation favors electric, biodiesel, ethanol, and sugarcane diesel technologies Adding technology or fuel performance standards in new BRT concession awards and existing concession renewals Standards can be included in 4 new BRT routes and in the renewal of other existing contracts to require transition to hybrid or electric technologies Economic/Market Low-interest financing for hybrid & electric technologies BNDES may reverse financing incentives that currently favor diesel buses over hybrid and electric buses Reduce/eliminate unfavorable taxes and subsidies Current high tax rates (import and other taxes) add ~35% to the cost of new electric buses imported Petrobras subsidizes the cost of diesel fuel for operators, while electricity is taxed heavily Other Demonstrated evidence of the advantages and operational east of hybrids in other Brazilian cities Small hybrid fleet has begun service in Curitiba, and has the potential to provide tangible favorable evidence to reduce transition risk for other operators in Brazil High Uptake Scenario Assumptions: Climate Law introduces exemption for diesel hybrids Large operators become comfortable with operation and maintenance of hybrid technologies in Curitiba New/renewed contracts include strict requirements to transition to cleaner fuels more quickly BNDES establishes concessional finance lines for hybrid and electric buses significantly below rates for diesel Potential uptake: ~2% of fleet transitions to hybrid or electric each year , rising to 5% in 2016 and 10% in % of fleet (~1,200 buses) is H/E by 2016; ~70% by 2023 (~7,400 buses) Low Uptake Scenario Assumptions: Ethanol and/or sugarcane diesel prices decline steadily BNDES unable to provide additional financing incentives for hybrid or electric buses No tax relief provided for imported electric buses Potential uptake: Minimal uptake by 2016 (approximately 300 buses) Gradual increase in uptake as cost and performance improve; ~13% of fleet transitions by 2020 (~1,330 buses); ~30 of fleet transitions by 2023 (~3,200) Source: Drivers based on discussions with officials and operators in São Paulo. Uptake scenarios based on Dalberg analysis and assumptions regarding potential conversion rates

61 São Paulo Roadmap São Paulo Potential solutions Estimated impact Likely feasibility Timeframe needed for implementation (years) Stakeholder to influence E c o n o m i c A. BNDES preferential loans for H/E buses at lower interest than diesel B. Leasing electric battery system C. Fixed maintenance/fuel/ energy fee to reduce costs and technological uncertainty D. Extend life contracts and eliminate 5 year average maximum on contracts BNDES/Buyers Manufacturers Manufacturers City officials P o l i c y M i s c E. Fuel efficiency standards for new concessions 1.Inter-municipal 4 new BRTs 2.City new BRT (150kms) F. Preferential import tax rates for H/E G. Incentives locally produce H/E H. Reduce subsidies to diesel I. Reduce taxes to electricity J. Leasing bus entity to eliminate technological risk/reselling Source: Interviews with stakeholders; CCI/C40; Dalberg analysis High Potential State/City officials State officials City officials Min.Com./Fin./In d Min.Com./Fin./In d Ministry of Ind. Ministry of Ener. BNDES/BID/ Manufacturers

62 São Paulo uptake: Fleet conversion will be required to meet mandates of Climate Change Law by 2018 Potential Fleet Transition in São Paulo, (Illustrative High Uptake Scenario) São Paulo Additional ~800 buses enter service for BRTs; 1/3 of new BRT buses are hybrid Another ~250 electric buses enter service Incremental conversion of ~2% of fleet to hybrid and electric buses annually, rising to 5% in 2016 and 10% in 2019 By 2023 over 3/4 of fleet is composed of hybrid or electric buses , , ,860 6, ,325 6,045 1,395 2,790 5,115 1,860 3,255 4,185 2,139 3,534 3,627 2,418 3,813 3,069 2,697 4,092 2,511 2,976 4,371 1,953 9,300 3,255 4,650 1,395 Hybrid (35%) Electric (50%) Diesel (15%) Assumptions 2 and 3 Drivers 4 of Change: Local production to avoid Import tax and/or reduction of taxes Climate Change Law provides exemption for hybrid (diesel) buses, catalyzing their growth Share of hybrid and electric buses in fleet reaches 55% by 2018; Remaining diesel buses shift to biodiesel blend & sugarcane to comply with Climate Law Share of hybrid and electric buses increases by 5% points in each year from 2014 to 2018, growth slowing starting in 2019 Source: Dalberg estimates based on projections and assumed annual conversion rates

63 C40 OLHANDO PARA FUTURO Johannesburg to host 2014 Mayors Summit C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group and World Resources Institute (WRI) Partner to Promote City Transit Solutions C40 & Siemens Announce Broad Collaboration on Cities and Sustainability

64 C40 OLHANDO PARA FUTURO

65 ACOMPANHEM NOSSOS PROGRESSOS MUITO C40 Cities Adalberto Maluf City Director, Sao Paulo

66 In partnership with: