Índice. VALE vê embarques de minério para China estáveis em '09 2. China pode gastar mais para crescer, diz premiê 3

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1 Nº 3 Março / 09

2 Índice VALE vê embarques de minério para China estáveis em '09 2 China pode gastar mais para crescer, diz premiê 3 Parceria Brasil-China desenvolve projetos em biotecnologia 3 China rejeita limitar venda de têxteis ao País 4 China aprova pacote econômico de US$ 586 bi 5 Apesar da crise, consumo na China sobe 15% em StanChart chief: China's economic growth around 7-8% in Rio Tinto: China to lead recovery in metals demand 7 Ping An plans private equity unit this year 7 China exploits path to growth in downturn 9 Chip maker SMIC sees clear rise in orders 11 China wants importers to cover some emission costs 12 1

3 VALE vê embarques de minério para China estáveis em '09 As exportações de minério de ferro da Vale para a China deverão ficar estáveis durante 2009, estimou nesta segunda-feira o presidente da companhia, Roger Agnelli. Segundo ele, algumas siderúrgicas pequenas e médias na China retomaram a produção recentemente e voltaram às compras de minério. Por outro lado, as grandes companhias continuam em ritmo lento. "A minha percepção é que o nível que estamos operando hoje, o nível de atividade que temos, o volume que estamos exportando para a China, permanecerão estáveis até o final do ano", afirmou Agnelli à Reuters em um intervalo de uma conferência sobre investimentos em Nova York. A Vale informou recentemente que pretendia enviar à China um volume recorde de 30 milhões de toneladas de minério de ferro no primeiro trimestre, depois de uma queda na demanda no final do ano passado. A companhia tem aumentado o número de clientes que atende na China, o grande motor do crescimento do mercado de minério, e o executivo disse esperar que essa tendência continue. "Fechamos muitos contratos com pequenas e médias siderúrgicas chinesas. Sou positivo com respeito à China. Realmente positivo. Creio que estão ajustando sua taxa de crescimento, mas ainda estão em um cenário de crescimento", acrescentou. Agnelli disse que as produtoras de aço trabalharam praticamente apenas com seus estoques desde setembro, e isso levou a um repique na demanda por minério recentemente, para recompor estoques. "Creio que a China terá uma pequena queda na produção (de aço) em 2009, na comparação com 2008", afirmou. A Vale e outras produtoras de minério estão em processo de negociação com as grandes siderúrgicas globais sobre o preço do minério para Muitos analistas chegaram a prever forte queda no preço, mas depois a estimativa foi revisada, devido à retomada na demanda. O presidente da Vale não quis dar detalhes sobre o assunto. "Ainda estamos conversando, estamos discutindo. Sejamos pacientes". Fonte: Reuters 16/03/2009 2

4 China pode gastar mais para crescer, diz premiê O primeiro-ministro da China, Wen Jiabao, manteve a perspectiva de um pacote de estímulo extra para ajudar a economia a alcançar meta de crescimento de 8 por cento neste ano e pediu que Washington diminua as preocupações que Pequim tem sobre a segurança das vastas reservas de ativos norte-americanos que possui. Em sua conferência anual no parlamento, Wen disse que a meta de 8 por cento é uma medida da confiança do governo e reflete seu compromisso de continuar elevando o padrão de vida. Mas ele ressaltou que não será fácil. "Eu acredito que haja alguma dificuldade em atingir essa meta. Mas com esforço, é possível", afirmou. "Apenas quando temos confiança podermos ter coragem e força, e apenas quando temos coragem e força podemos superar as dificuldades." Wen desapontou os investidores há uma semana, ao não anunciar nenhum aumento no pacote de estímulo econômico do país, mas ele disse que os mercados esqueceram que o governo já está fornecendo alívios além do plano, como cortes de impostos, aumento das aposentadorias e dos salários dos professores. "Preparamos munição suficiente e podemos lançar novas políticas de estímulo econômico a qualquer momento." Wen disse que Pequim esperar ver resultados do plano de recuperação econômica do presidente norte-americano, Barack Obama, mas expressou preocupação de que o elevado déficit daquele país e a taxa de juro perto de zero possam diminuir o valor dos bônus dos Estados Unidos nas mãos da China. A China é o maior detentor de dívida do governo norte-americano e investiu cerca de 70 por cento de suas reservas internacionais de 2 trilhões de dólares em ativos em dólar. Fonte: Reuters 13/03/2009 Parceria Brasil-China desenvolve projetos em biotecnologia Acordo entre a Coppe/UFRJ e a Universidade de Tsinghua, em Pequim, vai facilitar a troca de tecnologia em áreas vitais para os dois países. Em um laboratório da Coordenação dos Programas de Pós-graduação de Engenharia (Coppe), na Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), são feitos testes para checar a qualidade dos combustíveis usados no 3

5 Brasil, inclusive biocombustíveis. Esses testes podem abrir novas portas para um mercado que mais cresce no mundo: a China. Foi na capital chinesa, Pequim, que a instituição científica brasileira criou o centro de pesquisa. É o início de uma associação vista com otimismo pelo diretor da Coppe, Luiz Pinguelli Rosa. Pode trazer mercado para tecnologia brasileira e oportunidades de estudos brasileiros serem utilizados na China. E também pode inversamente trazer alguma tecnologia chinesa de interesse para nosso mercado, prevê Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, diretor da Coppe/UFRJ. A parceria entre a Coppe, no Rio, e a Universidade de Tsinghua, em Pequim, vai promover a cooperação tecnológica e acadêmica, particularmente, em biotecnologia, em mudanças climáticas e em exploração de petróleo offshore. O Centro Brasil-China de Tecnologias Inovadoras também vai mapear fontes de biodiesel lá e cá para desenvolver projetos de interesse dos dois países. O centro já despertou o interesse de algumas empresas chinesas. Se nós conseguirmos estabelecer nos nossos objetivos, que tenham desdobramentos para as empresas e indústrias, nós podemos ter ganhos substanciais para ambos os países, acredita Segen Estefen, diretor de tecnologia da Coppe/UFRJ. Fonte: G1 14/03/2009 China rejeita limitar venda de têxteis ao País Diante da crise e da queda nas exportações, a China rejeita um acordo para limitar as vendas de produtos têxteis para o Brasil. O governo brasileiro admite que investigações de dumping e eventuais salvaguardas já estão em andamento, para ver se será o caso de elevar novas barreiras contra os produtos chineses. Em 2005, o governo chinês fechou um entendimento com o Brasil, limitando o crescimento das exportações ao mercado nacional e criando cotas. Em contrapartida, o Brasil evitaria criar barreiras. Entre 2003 e 2005, as exportações chinesas de produtos têxteis para o mercado brasileiro dobraram. Porém, o acordo venceu no fim do ano passado. O Itamaraty chegou a enviar negociadores para a avaliar a situação e propor novo acordo. Mas os chineses não aceitaram. Segundo Carlos Marcio Cozendey, diretor do Departamento Econômico do Itamaraty, investigações de dumping já estão ocorrendo no Brasil. Mas há pelo menos dois fatores que podem amenizar a entrada dos produtos no País. Um deles é a queda nas exportações chinesas em geral. Em fevereiro, 4

6 a redução dos embarques da China a todo o mundo foi de 25%. Outro fator é a desvalorização do real, que também teria contribuído para frear as importações do setor. De todas as formas, o governo avalia ainda a situação. O problema é que o setor têxtil brasileiro também vive uma queda das exportações. Só em janeiro, a redução nas vendas para o exterior foi de 33,5%. Fonte: Agência Estado 12/03/2009 China aprova pacote econômico de US$ 586 bi A Assembleia Nacional Popular (ANP) da China aprovou hoje o plano de estímulo econômico proposto pelo primeiro-ministro chinês, Wen Jiabao, de 4 trilhões de iuanes (US$ 586 bilhões). O pacote, de dois anos de duração, foi aprovado com votos a favor, 145 contra e 71 abstenções. Wen disse que o país é "capaz de atingir" um crescimento econômico de 8% sempre que as políticas forem aplicadas de forma correta. Pequim calcula que um crescimento de 8% ao ano é o mínimo para criar nove milhões de empregos. Porém, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) acha que este ano a expansão da economia chonesa não passará de 6,7%, a menor taxa em duas décadas. Reunida no Grande Palácio do Povo de Pequim, a Assembleia Nacional Popular encerra hoje as votações das leis propostas pelo Governo. Fonte: G1 12/03/2009 Apesar da crise, consumo na China sobe 15% em 2009 O consumo dos cidadãos chineses aumentou 15,2% em janeiro e fevereiro, apesar da crise, embora o crescimento tenha sido inferior aos 21,6% registrados em 2008, informou hoje o Birô Nacional de Estatísticas. A cifra total de vendas no varejo chegou a 2 trilhões de iuanes (US$ 293,8 bilhões). 5

7 O ritmo de aumento entre janeiro e fevereiro foi mais alto nas áreas rurais da China (17%) que nas urbanas (14,4 %), embora o volume total continue sendo maior nas cidades. O Birô Nacional de Estatísticas também divulgou hoje dados do crescimento industrial, que teve alta de 3,8% nos dois primeiros meses do ano. Volume de comércio da China melhora em março As exportações e as importações da China mostraram-se um pouco mais fortes nos 10 primeiros dias de março que em fevereiro, informou o ministro do Comércio, Chen Deming, nesta sexta-feira. A queda nas exportações até agora no mês ficou bem abaixo do recuo em fevereiro, quando foi de 25,7 por cento sobre o ano passado, disse ele a jornalistas. Fonte: EFE 14/12/2009 StanChart chief: China's economic growth around 7-8% in 2009 UK bank Standard Chartered's CEO said in Hong Kong on Tuesday that China's economic growth will be around 7 percent or 8 percent this year due to the quick policy response by the Chinese government. Standard Chartered's Chief Executive Peter Sands told reporters in a media briefing that the major fiscal stimulus launched by the Chinese government and the way they encourage the bank lending will be effective in keeping China's economic growth around 7 percent or 8 percent. "The Chinese government has responded quickly on a significant scale to the challenges to the economic growth," Sands said. "I think China is playing a very positive role in global response to the economic crisis", adding that "the most important role" China can play is to ensure its own economic growth, he said. As the G20 summit scheduled next month in London is widely seen as a joint effort by the advanced countries and emerging economies to fight against the global economic crisis, Sands said "it is very important" that China has a strong voice in the G20 discussion and he believed China is capable of doing that. Fonte: Xinhua 17/03/2009 6

8 Rio Tinto: China to lead recovery in metals demand Rio Tinto Ltd sees demand for metals and minerals picking up rapidly once economic activity recovers, driven by a sharp recovery in Chinese demand. In the company's annual report, released on Tuesday, Chairman Paul Skinner also said a need to rebuild stockpiles of minerals after cutbacks by many miners due to the economic slowdown would help lift demand. "China particularly may surprise the market. It is the rate of deceleration and acceleration of the Chinese economy which drives metal demand and prices, given its major share of total global demand," Skinner said in the report. "Just as China decelerated sharply, with a strong impact on metals demand, it will also work powerfully in the upswing." Rio Tinto, seeking to reduce debt, has signed a $19.5 billion deal with Chinese aluminum producer Chinalco that will give the Chinese stakes in some Rio mining assets as well as an 18 percent stake in Rio itself. Two weeks ago Rio Tinto chief economist Vivek Tulpukle said that 2009 would be a "very rough year for both prices and volumes" and economic recovery would take time. Rio is also selling assets to reduce debt that stood at $38.7 billion at Dec 31. It hopes to reduce net debt by $10 billion this year, and Chief Executive Tom Albanese said in the report that more assets will be divested than those already earmarked for sale. Fonte: Agencies 17/03/2009 Ping An plans private equity unit this year Ping An Insurance, China's No 2 insurer, plans to launch a private equity arm this year, said two sources with direct knowledge of the plan, as the Chinese government encourages private equity investment to bolster the economy. Ping An Capital, initially capitalized at 20 billion yuan ($2.93 billion), will aim to raise more than 5 billion yuan in its first private equity fund to invest in unlisted companies, corporate bonds, infrastructure projects such as bridges and ports, and real estate projects, the sources said. China has been encouraging private equity investment as an additional source of corporate funding, as banks become cautious in lending to the 7

9 private sector while initial public equity offerings have dried up during an extended market downturn. China's insurance regulator said last month it would expand investment options for insurance companies, including to investments in unlisted companies, to help them improve returns during the financial crisis. "Insurers are actively seeking new investment channels for their premium income," said Peng Yulong, analyst at Guotai Jun'an Securities Co. "Their money is long-term in nature, so they would have enough time to nurture private equity projects." Ping An is now applying for regulatory approvals for the private equity fund, and these should be granted soon, the sources said. They asked not to be named because they were not authorized to talk to the media. Ambitious Plan Ping An also operates a bank, a trust unit and a brokerage, and its chairman Ma Mingzhe has laid out ambitious plans to expand as a full-range financial conglomerate. China is encouraging insurers to fund development of the domestic economy, and China's top insurance regulator Wu Dingfu has called on insurers to invest more in infrastructure projects to support the government's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package. "This is certainly a good opportunity for insurers to expand into the private equity sector and help boost China's economic growth," one of the sources said. "China's infrastructure and real estate sectors are still attractive and in need of capital," he added. Ping An has already invested in a number of infrastructure projects in China after receiving government approval on a case-by-case basis, including a recently launched high-speed rail project that will link Beijing and Shanghai. The government at the same time has pressured insurers to trim their overseas ambitions, after Ping An's failed investment in Dutch-Belgian financial services group Fortis NV. Ping An, which holds 4.99 percent of Fortis, booked a 15.7 billion yuan loss in the third quarter to mark down the value of the stake. Fonte: Agencies 17/03/2009 8

10 China exploits path to growth in downturn The global economic downturn, and efforts to reverse it, will probably make China an even stronger economic competitor than it was before the crisis. China, the world's third-largest economy behind the United States and Japan, had already become more assertive; now it is exploiting its unusual position as a country with piles of cash and a strong banking system, at a time when many countries have neither, to acquire natural resources and make new friends. Last week, China's Premier Wen Jiabao even reminded Washington that as one of the United States' biggest creditors, China expects Washington to safeguard its investment. China's leaders are turning economic crisis to competitive advantage, said economic analysts. The country is using its nearly $600 billion economic stimulus package to make its companies better able to compete in markets at home and abroad, to retrain migrant workers on an immense scale and to rapidly expand subsidies for research and development. Construction has already begun on new highways and rail lines that are likely to permanently reduce transportation costs. And while American leaders struggle to revive lending in the latest effort with a $15 billion program to help small businesses Chinese banks lent more in the last three months than in the preceding 12 months. "The recent tweaks to the stimulus package indicate a sharper focus on the long-term competitiveness of Chinese industry," said Eswar S. Prasad, a former China division chief at the International Monetary Fund. "Higher expenditures on education and research and development, along with amounts already committed to infrastructure investment, will boost the economy's productivity." The international economic slowdown is also doing some things that Chinese authorities had tried and failed to do for four years: slow inflation, reverse what had been an ever-growing dependence on exports and pop a real estate bubble before it could grow even bigger. The recession in most of the large economies in the world is inflicting real pain here causing a record plunge in Chinese exports, putting 20 million migrant workers from within China out of their jobs and raising the potential for increased and sustained social unrest. But as President Hu Jintao told the National People's Congress last week, "Challenge and opportunity always come together under certain conditions, one could be transformed into the other." 9

11 To that end, Chinese companies are shopping for foreign businesses to acquire. The commerce ministry announced late Monday that it was greatly easing the government approval process for Chinese companies seeking permission to make foreign acquisitions. The ministry is now leading its first mergers and acquisitions delegation of corporate executives to Europe; the executives are looking at companies in the automotive, textiles, food, energy, machinery, electronics and environmental protection sectors. The government initiatives coincide with some immediate benefits of the slowdown for China. For instance, air freight and ocean shipping costs have plunged by as much as two-thirds since last summer as demand has fallen. Blue-collar wages, which had doubled in four years in some coastal cities, have fallen for many workers this winter, causing personal pain but reviving China's advantage in labor costs. Unemployment has pushed down the piece rates that factories pay for each garment sewn or toy assembled. Overtime has practically disappeared. Lao Shu-jen, a migrant worker from Jiangxi province who works at a blue jeans factory here, said that he earned $350 a month late last year but would be lucky to earn $220 a month this spring. "There are a lot of blue jeans" piling up in the back of the factory with no sign of buyers, he said. Highly qualified middle managers, in acutely short supply a year ago, are now widely available because of layoffs. Some jobs are still available now. Four days after a shoe factory closed here for lack of orders, laying off several hundred workers, there were four ads on the factory's front gate from other shoe factories seeking to hire skilled workers. Unskilled laborers face the greatest difficulty finding jobs. But with subsidies from the central government, provincial governments have embarked on large-scale vocational training programs of the sort that the United States has discussed but not actually tried. Guangdong province alone, here in southeastern China, is quadrupling its vocational training program this year to teach four million workers engaged in three-month or six-month programs. The main comparable program in the United States, under the Workforce Investment Act, has been training fewer than 250,000 a year, although President Obama's stimulus program provides funding that could double the number of American workers in training programs. 10

12 The Guangdong training programs are half in the classroom and half in the factory, usually the business that plans to employ the trainees. By increasing productivity, training programs can hold down corporate labor costs per unit of production for years to come. Multinationals are cutting back less in China than elsewhere and some are even expanding. Intel is shutting down semiconductor production lines sooner than previously planned at older, smaller operations in Malaysia and the Philippines as it opens a large, new factory in Chengdu in western China. IMI PLC, the big British manufacturer of items as diverse as power plant valves and brewery equipment, has just announced an accelerated shift of operations to China, India and the Czech Republic, after cutting its global work force by 10 percent since December. And Hon Hai, the 600,000-employee Taiwanese company that is one of the world's largest contract manufacturers of products like the Apple iphone and Nintendo Wii game console, has just increased employment by nearly 5 percent on Chinese mainland even as it cuts overall employment by 3 to 5 percent. Yet China's economy still has weaknesses. Little is being done to shift the economy away from a heavy reliance on capital spending and toward greater consumption. The social safety net of pensions, health care and education barely exists, so Chinese families save heavily. Strict government policies on labor and the environment, intended to address serious shortfalls in both and imposed a year ago when China felt more confident of its economic strength, are prompting low-tech industries like toy manufacturing to move to other, less stringent countries. Top labor officials insisted during the National People's Congress that they would resist suggestions from some Chinese executives that the new standards be relaxed. Fonte: New York Times - 17/03/2009 Chip maker SMIC sees clear rise in orders SMIC Corp, the top contract chip maker on the Chinese mainland, has recently seen a clear rise in orders while its first-quarter capacity utilization rate is likely to substantially exceed its original expectations, Chief Executive Richard Chang said on Tuesday. The capacity utilization rate is expected to show further improvement in the second quarter from the first, he said. 11

13 Chang's comments followed last week's news from Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract chip maker, that it had sharply raised its first-quarter sales and margin forecasts due to rush orders from Chinese mainland, indicating that a trend of falling sales that began six months ago had hit bottom. Chang added that the start of production at SMIC's new fabrication plant in Shenzhen, which will use 8-inch wafers, was likely to be delayed until the first quarter of 2010 from the fourth quarter of 2009 due to problems at the construction site. He added that the company's planned $190 million in capital expenditure this year would be used primarily for R&D and expansion at its 12-inch wafer facilities. Last month, the company posted a surprisingly large quarterly loss of $124.5 million, double what analysts had expected, as recession-wary consumers cut back spending on PCs, cellphones and flat-screen TVs. SMIC has been searching for outside investors to shore up its cash position and has been in recent talks to sell a strategic stake to Intel Corp, sources familiar with the talks told reporters last month. Fonte: Agencies 17/03/2009 China wants importers to cover some emission costs Countries that buy Chinese goods should be held responsible for the carbon dioxide emitted by the factories that make them in any global plan to reduce greenhouse gases, a Chinese official said on Monday. "About 15 percent to 25 percent of China's emissions come from the products which we make for the world, which should not be taken by us," said Gao Li, director of China's Department of Climate Change under the National Development and Reform Commission. Speaking at a forum sponsored by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Gao added that "this share of emission should be taken by the consumers, not the producers" and called the demand a "very important item to make (for a) fair agreement". Gao gave no further details of his proposal, which could nevertheless be controversial as countries like the United States already fear that controlling domestic emissions will lead to sharply higher energy prices and possible job losses. 12

14 China, like the United States, did not join the 17-year-old Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants linked to climate change problems. With an economy that has been booming on its export of manufactured goods, China's greenhouse gas emissions also have been growing and are now thought to be around par with those in the United States, which has been the leading emitting nation. China is the top source of imports into the United States, followed by Canada and Mexico. December deadline? Backers of a new international deal to control climate-warming emissions hope a pact is embraced in Copenhagen in December, although they acknowledge that timetable might be ambitious. In the meantime, international interest in curbing climate change is growing, led by President Barack Obama's pledge to put the United States on a path to cut emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, with an additional 80 percent reduction by Legislation to create a cap-and-trade system to limit businesses' emissions could begin moving through the US Congress in coming months. But enactment of such a bill might not be possible before the Copenhagen meeting. If not, environmentalists worry it could discourage other countries from signing onto a deal there. But even without a comprehensive agreement, Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, said negotiators could try to achieve a "strong interim agreement" that would set forth a framework, possibly including a range of targets for countries to reduce emissions. Shinsuke Sugiyama, director general for global issues at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the Pew forum that his government views 2009 as a "make or break" year in achieving progress on a new global deal. But noting that the Kyoto Protocol has only covered about 30 percent of global emissions because key economies did not sign on, Sugiyama warned: "My government is very much determined not to repeat what Kyodo does give us...in the sense that we were not able to involve United States of America...and other countries like China." Fonte: Agencies 17/03/