Consumo Brasil. Tempos Turbulentos

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1 Consumo Brasil 24 de Março de 2015 Atualização Setorial Tempos Turbulentos Um cenário de consumo difícil em Apesar dos poucos meses de 2015, já há indicações de que as companhias de consumo provavelmente enfrentarão condições desfavoráveis provocadas pela desaceleração econômica, que afetou a massa salarial do país e a confiança do consumidor. Segundo consta, as companhias já estão observando tendências voláteis de crescimento, na medida em que as atividades promocionais geram reações mais brandas por parte dos consumidores e o ambiente competitivo começa a ficar mais acirrado, em alguns casos. Estamos atualizando as nossas estimativas para algumas das companhias de consumo que cobrimos, e estamos mantendo as nossas recomendações de outperform para a Guararapes, Lojas Renner, Hypermarcas e Hering. Atualizando as nossas estimativas para incorporar o cenário atual de consumo brando. Em reação ao abrandamento do ambiente do consumo, estamos ajustando nossos modelos para incorporar um cenário macroeconômico em desaceleração. Nossas novas premissas macroeconômicas indicam um crescimento negativo do PIB de 1,1% e um declínio de 0,5% na massa salarial (em relação a um CAGR de 4,7% durante os últimos cinco anos). Também estamos incorporando um câmbio mais depreciado (R$ 3,10 / USD para o final de 2015) e as esperadas elevações na taxa SELIC, que provavelmente impactarão a lucratividade e o lucro líquido de algumas companhias. Tendências específicas das companhias provavelmente representarão a melhor aposta para Tendo isto em mente, nossa escolha de ações para 2015 tende a favorecer companhias com exposição a mercados mais resilientes, que provavelmente se sustentarão melhor durante o ano, bem como empresas cujos desempenhos parecem ser determinados principalmente por melhoras operacionais e execução no mercado em geral no cenário mais brando atual. Atualizando as estimativas e os valores justos para o final de Também estamos atualizando as nossas estimativas e valores justos relativos às companhias de consumo que cobrimos. Nossas novas estimativas incorporam as projeções macroeconômicas atuais do, que incluem um declínio de 1,1% no PIB, inflação de 8%, uma taxa SELIC de 13% e uma taxa de câmbio de R$ 3,10 / USD ao final de Estamos mantendo nossas recomendações de outperform (desempenho acima da média do mercado) para a Guararapes, Lojas Renner, Hypermarcas e Hering, bem como as nossas recomendações de market perform (desempenho em linha com a média do mercado) para a RaiaDrogasil, Natura e Magazine Luiza. Estimativas e Valuation MGLU3 HGTX3 NATU3 RADL3 HYPE3 LREN3 GUAR3 Recommendation MP OP MP MP OP OP OP Fair Value BRL (YE15) Upside (YE15) 82.2% 33.0% 26.5% 12.7% 10.9% 16.4% 35.4% EV/EBITDA P/E FCFE yield (%) Dividend yield (%) EQUIPE DE CONSUMO Thiago Macruz, CNPI Felipe Cruz, CNPI Na página 20 do presente relatório podem ser encontradas divulgações importantes, certificações dos analistas e informações adicionais. O Itaú BBA efetua e procura efetuar negócios com as Empresas cobertas no presente relatório de pesquisa. Conseqüentemente, os investidores devem estar cientes de que pode haver conflito de interesse capaz de afetar a objetividade deste relatório. Os investidores não devem considerar este relatório como fator único ao tomarem suas decisões de investimento. Read this report in: 2 min: Front Page 16 min: Full A Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. é uma divisão do Grupo Itaú Unibanco. é uma marca registrada usada pela Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.

2 MAGAZINE LUIZA Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 9,20 por Ação / Market Perform O cenário atual e a base de comparações estão criando condições bastante desfavoráveis. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo do Magazine Luiza ao final de 2015 para R$ 9,20 / MGLU3, e mantendo nossa recomendação de market-perform (desempenho em linha com a média do mercado). A exposição da companhia a produtos duráveis de valor elevado provavelmente deve gerar uma pressão adicional sobre o crescimento no ambiente de consumo atual, sensível aos preços. Também acreditamos que a companhia apresenta uma base de comparação desfavorável, devido à atividade promocional considerável que precedeu a Copa do Mundo de Futebol. Tendo isto em mente, projetamos um crescimento das vendas mesmas-lojas (SSS, na sigla em inglês) que provavelmente deve começar baixo no ano, chegando a 5,5% no final de 2015, ajudada pela abertura de 40 lojas ao longo do ano (incluindo as lojas adquiridas da ViaVarejo). Nossas estimativas para a lucratividade do Magazine Luiza também são conservadoras, em vista de um cenário potencialmente com maiores promoções. Tudo considerado, o cenário desfavorável nos impede de adotar uma abordagem mais otimista em relação à companhia, apesar do valuation. No momento, vemos a ação sendo negociada a 6,5x o P/L para 2015, número que já leva em consideração o cenário de consumo mais difícil e o impacto de maiores despesas financeiras. Magazine Luiza Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 10,760 10, % 11,821 11, % 12,799 12, % Gross Profit 2,950 2, % 3,229 3, % 3,483 3, % Gross Margin 27.4% 27.4% -1 bps 27.3% 27.3% -1 bps 27.2% 27.2% -1 bps EBITDA % % % EBITDA Margin 6.3% 5.8% 55 bps 6.3% 6.0% 35 bps 6.5% 6.0% 43 bps Adj. Net Income % % % HERING Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 22,30 por Ação / Outperform Lidando com seus próprios desafios internos. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo da Hering ao final de 2015 para R$ 22,30 / HGTX3, e mantendo nossa recomendação de outperform, devido ao valuation. A Hering vem tentando melhorar sua execução em geral, ajustando a sua coleção para que esta atenda melhor às demandas dos consumidores e revertendo a tendência de declínio nas SSS observada nos últimos anos. Acreditamos que é importante que os franqueados da companhia respaldem os novos empreendimentos da Hering investindo nas mudanças, que podem ser difíceis de implementar em vista do ambiente de consumo esperado. Segundo a Hering, não têm sido observados sinais de estabilização até agora neste ano, e o canal multimarcas vem sofrendo. Temos a expectativa de que a companhia apresente um crescimento das SSS de -0,9% em 2015, bem como uma menor adição de áreas de vendas e perdas na lucratividade (-130 pontos-base na margem EBITDA) em consequência de uma menor diluição dos custos (particularmente em virtude das pressões cambiais, custos maiores da energia e impostos sobre a folha salarial) e da estratégia de preços mais agressiva destinada a promover a retomada do crescimento. Mantemos nossa recomendação de outperform (desempenho acima da média do mercado) para a companhia, com um novo valor justo para o final de 2015 de R$ 22,30 / HGTX3 e um valuation de 8,7x o P/L para Hering Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 1,703 1, % 1,781 1, % 1,886 2, % Gross Profit % % % Gross Margin 42.8% 44.3% -149 bps 43.3% 44.7% -142 bps 43.5% 45.2% -167 bps EBITDA % % % EBITDA Margin 22.3% 24.0% -169 bps 22.1% 24.6% -252 bps 22.4% 25.3% -290 bps Net Income % % % 2

3 NATURA Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 32,90 por Ação / Market Perform Recuperando o volume. Estamos mais uma vez atualizando nosso valor justo da Natura ao final de 2015, para R$ 32,90 / NATU3, e reiterando nossa recomendação de market perform (desempenho em linha com a média do mercado) para esta ação. De acordo com as nossas verificações de canal, a concorrência tem sido intensa até agora neste ano. Apesar disso, a Natura parece comprometida com a retomada do crescimento no volume em suas operações. A companhia planeja reorganizar as despesas e investimentos, focando no consumidor através de um aumento na publicidade e de uma experiência de consumo melhor, que irá incluir ferramentas para encontrar o vendedor mais próximo e aceitar diferentes meios de pagamento, entre outras coisas. O foco nos volumes pode também significar preços mais agressivos e uma absorção parcial dos custos e despesas maiores relativos aos custos denominados em USD e à taxação maior sobre alguns produtos. Dito isto, temos a expectativa de outro ano desafiador para a companhia em termos de faturamento. Nosso novo valor justo para o final de 2015 de R$ 32,90 / NATU3 implica em um valuation de 15,8x o P/L para 2015 também afetado pelas despesas financeiras mais elevadas geradas por perdas em derivativos atrelados à moeda. Natura Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 7,750 7, % 8,283 8, % 8,837 9, % Gross Profit 5,345 5, % 5,725 5, % 6,118 6, % Gross Margin 69.0% 69.8% -79 bps 69.1% 69.9% -78 bps 69.2% 70.0% -75 bps EBITDA 1,611 1, % 1,746 1, % 1,877 1, % EBITDA Margin 20.8% 21.2% -41 bps 21.1% 21.5% -44 bps 21.2% 21.8% -55 bps Net Income % % % RAIADROGASIL Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 30,20 por Ação / Market Perform O ritmo de crescimento consistente e a expansão da margem devem continuar, apesar do panorama para o consumo. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo da RaiaDrogasil ao final de 2015 para R$ 30,20 / RADL3, e mantendo nossa recomendação de market perform devido ao valuation. Temos a expectativa de que a companhia sustente o momentum positivo dos ganhos. Na nossa opinião, é improvável que a RaiaDrogasil observe qualquer desaceleração dos cerca de 10% atuais de crescimento nas SSS. Exposta ao mercado mais resiliente de farmácias, a companhia vem aumentando consistentemente a sua participação de mercado através de melhoras operacionais, que provavelmente devem prosseguir, uma vez que o mix do sortimento de produtos das lojas está otimizado. O crescimento da RaiaDrogasil continuará a sustentar uma expansão da margem de cerca de 20 pontosbase em Apesar de nossa perspectiva otimista em relação às operações da empresa, mantemos nossa recomendação de market-perform (desempenho em linha com a média do mercado) devido ao valuation não atrativo. Nosso novo valor justo para o final de 2015 de R$ 30,20 / RADL3 implica em um potencial de valorização de 12,7%, e vemos a ação sendo negociada a excessivos 29,0x o P/L para RaiaDrogasil Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Gross Revenues 9,030 9, % 10,559 10, % 12,254 12, % Gross Profit 2,498 2, % 2,931 2, % 3,411 3, % Gross Margin 27.7% 27.7% -3 bps 27.8% 27.9% -13 bps 27.8% 28.0% -21 bps EBITDA % % % EBITDA Margin 6.8% 6.7% 19 bps 7.2% 6.9% 27 bps 7.3% 7.1% 20 bps Net Income % % % 3

4 HYPERMARCAS Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 21,50 por Ação / Outperform Protegendo a lucratividade em um mercado resiliente. Estamos mantendo nosso valor justo para o final de 2015 de R$ 21,50 / HYPE3 e nossa recomendação de outperform. Acreditamos que a Hypermarcas possui exposição a boas marcas e a produtos mais resilientes. Além disso, a companhia parece já estar ajustando a sua divisão de consumo ao ambiente de consumo mais difícil, através de uma abordagem mais promocional em relação às extensões de suas linhas. Embora 20% dos custos da companhia estejam expostos a moedas estrangeiras, temos a expectativa de que a política de hedging da Hypermarcas abrande este impacto. Dito isto, estamos ajustando ligeiramente as nossas estimativas e mantendo nosso valor justo para o final de 2015 de R$ 21,50 / HYPE3 (potencial de valorização de 10,9%), bem como nossa recomendação de outperform (desempenho acima da média do mercado) para a companhia. Vemos a ação sendo negociada a 22,0x o P/L para Hypermarcas Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 5,168 4, % 5,690 5, % 6,142 5, % Gross Profit 3,276 3, % 3,632 3, % 3,931 3, % Gross Margin 63.4% 65.0% -162 bps 63.8% 65.3% -143 bps 64.0% 65.4% -141 bps EBITDA 1,200 1, % 1,384 1, % 1,524 1, % EBITDA Margin 23.2% 23.8% -54 bps 24.3% 24.6% -27 bps 24.8% 25.3% -47 bps Net Income % % % LOJAS RENNER Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 100,00 por Ação / Outperform A forte execução continua a sustentar resultados acima da média. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo da Lojas Renner ao final de 2015 para R$ 100,00 / LREN3, e mantendo a nossa recomendação de outperform. Temos a expectativa de que a Lojas Renner continue a alcançar o forte desempenho do crescimento e da lucratividade apresentado nos últimos anos, sustentado por uma execução excelente e por habilidades excepcionais da administração. A companhia provavelmente deve reportar SSS de aproximadamente 8%, uma vez que as vendas desaceleraram em relação ao esperado crescimento de dois dígitos para o primeiro trimestre. Não obstante, o crescimento das SSS, bem como alguns ganhos de eficiência, devem gerar uma maior lucratividade. Manteremos nossa recomendação de outperform (desempenho acima da média do mercado) para a Lojas Renner até que surjam evidências empíricas de uma potencial desaceleração na operação da companhia. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo do final de 2015 para R$ 100,00 por ação. As ações estão sendo negociadas a 18,3x o P/L para Lojas Renner Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 5,335 5, % 5,974 5, % 6,797 6, % Gross Profit 2,890 2, % 3,266 3, % 3,750 3, % Gross Margin 54.2% 53.3% 83 bps 54.7% 53.8% 83 bps 55.2% 54.3% 83 bps EBITDA (reported) 1,226 1, % 1,399 1, % 1,618 1, % EBITDA Margin 23.0% 21.9% 104 bps 23.4% 22.0% 142 bps 23.8% 22.5% 135 bps Net Income % % % 4

5 GUARARAPES Valor Justo Para o Final de 2015 de R$ 104,00 por Ação / Outperform O aprimoramento da operação possivelmente deve impulsionar o crescimento. Estamos atualizando nosso valor justo da Guararapes ao final de 2015 para R$ 104,00 / GUAR3, e mantendo a nossa recomendação de outperform. Apesar do ambiente econômico mais lento, temos a expectativa de que a Guararapes registre SSS maiores do que as do ano passado, devido a uma base de comparação branda e melhoras na execução, tais como coleções melhores e um mix positivo de produtos. Dito isto, a companhia também enfrentará algumas condições desfavoráveis relativas ao aumento dos impostos sobre a folha de pagamentos, particularmente em suas plantas de manufatura. Estamos mantendo nossa recomendação de outperform (desempenho acima da média do mercado) para a companhia, devido a uma melhora potencial no momentum e ao seu valuation atrativo, e atualizando nosso valor justo do final de 2015 para R$ 104,00 / GUAR4. Vemos a ação sendo negociada a 9,9x o P/L para Guararapes Estimativas Atuais Versus Anteriores 2015e 2016e 2017e New Old % New Old % New Old % Net Revenues 4,260 4, % 4,749 4, % 5,237 5, % Gross Profit 2,312 2, % 2,578 2, % 2,869 2, % Gross Margin 54.3% 55.3% -98 bps 54.3% 55.7% -138 bps 54.8% 56.4% -158 bps EBITDA 1, % 1,130 1, % 1,179 1, % EBITDA Margin 24.4% 24.1% 31 bps 23.8% 24.5% -74 bps 22.5% 23.9% -139 bps Net Income % % % 5

6 Magazine Luiza Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Stores year end Same Store Sale Grow th (Physical Stores) 9.8% 10.5% 15.1% 6.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.0% Selling Area Grow th 3.3% 1.0% 1.7% 5.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES 7,665 8,082 9,779 10,760 11,821 12,799 13,737 COGS -5,147-5,824-7,087-7,810-8,592-9,316-10,014 GROSS PROFIT 2,519 2,258 2,692 2,950 3,229 3,483 3,724 Cash SG&A -2,308-1,934-2,211-2,388-2,588-2,776-2,965 Other operating expenses Deferred Revenues (non cash) Equity income Depreciation OPERATING INCOME RECURRING EBITDA Financial Results EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES Income Tax & Contributions ADJ. NET INCOME BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash ,125 1,259 1,412 Accounts Receivable 2, Inventories 1,069 1,251 1,473 1,627 1,790 1,940 2,086 Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 1,016 1,274 1,375 1,431 1,442 1,445 1,455 TOTAL ASSETS 5,665 4,714 5,290 5,605 5,936 6,318 6,717 Financing ST Suppliers 2,885 1,652 1,790 1,977 2,175 2,358 2,535 Deferred Revenues Other Liabilities ST Financing LT ,120 1,143 1,143 1,143 1,143 Other Liabilities LT Deferred Revenues SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ,167 1,384 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 5,665 4,714 5,290 5,605 5,936 6,318 6,717 DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Short Term Debt Long Term Debt ,120 1,143 1,143 1,143 1,143 TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT 1,236 1,320 1,712 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,734 Cash ,125 1,259 1,412 TOTAL NET DEBT Receivables Discount 791 1,186 1,516 1,666 1,831 1,982 2,128 TOTAL NET DEBT+receivables 1,429 1,735 2,364 2,410 2,440 2,457 2,450 Net fin exp / EBITDA 85% 55% 63% 65% 62% 53% 47% Net Debt (+receivables) to Equity 232.0% 249.8% 313.4% 282.7% 250.3% 210.6% 177.1% Net Debt (+receivables) to Total Capitalization 69.9% 71.4% 75.8% 73.9% 38.5% 28.9% 18.9% Net Debt (+receivables)/ebitda CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income (ex-deferred rev) Depreciation EBITDA (ex-deferred rev) Cash Taxes 17 (17) (2) (4) (17) (37) (57) WK (258) (266) (575) (102) (135) (171) (164) Operating Cash Flow (38) 161 (7) Capex (175) (131) (134) (177) (146) (143) (151) Operating Free Cash Flow (213) 31 (141) Net Interest Expenses (172) (244) (361) (419) (440) (422) (398) FCF Equity (before Debt) (385) (213) (502) (56) (28) FCF Equity Yield -43.5% -24.1% -56.6% -6.3% -3.2% 2.0% 9.0% 6

7 Magazine Luiza Principais Estimativas MARGINS 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash SG&A as % of Sales 23.9% 22.6% 22.2% 21.9% 21.7% 21.6% GROSS MARGIN 27.9% 27.5% 27.4% 27.3% 27.2% 27.1% OPERATING MARGIN 4.6% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% EBITDA MARGIN 5.1% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 6.4% NET MARGIN 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% RETURNS 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) Capital Employed 2,430 3,119 3,262 3,415 3,624 3,833 ROCE (EBIT) 12.3% 14.4% 15.6% 15.2% 15.5% 15.5% ROE 10.8% 17.7% 17.1% 16.9% 21.2% 22.7% Invested Capital (w ith gross receivables) 2,545 3,221 3,379 3,526 3,700 3,874 ROIC (EBIT) 13.1% 15.6% 15.5% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% Ke 17.1% 18.4% 19.6% 16.1% 15.9% 15.6% ROIC/WACC MOMENTUM 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 5.4% 21.0% 10.0% 9.9% 8.3% 7.3% EBIT Grow th 214% 33.0% 15.2% 9.7% 13.1% 8.9% EBITDA Grow th 46.1% 47.1% 12.6% 9.4% 10.9% 7.1% Earnings Grow th 390% 81.7% 6.9% 12.2% 47.4% 27.4% MULTIPLES 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (closing) $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 $5.05 Market Cap (R$m) Adj Market Cap (R$m) Adj Net Debt 2,121 2,718 2,728 2,723 2,705 2,662 Adj EV 3,007 3,604 3,614 3,609 3,591 3,548 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/E P/CF P/BV Target Price R$/Share $9.2 Upside % 82.2% Total Return % 84.0% 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Multiples at Target 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $ 9.2 $ 9.2 $ 9.2 $ 9.2 $ 9.2 $ 9.2 Target Mcap 1,648 1,648 1,648 1,648 1,648 1,648 Net Debt 2,121 2,718 2,728 2,723 2,705 2,662 EV 3,769 4,365 4,376 4,370 4,353 4,310 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF P/BV A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Shares Outstanding (m) EPS BVPS Cash Flow CFPS Dividend / Interest on Equity DPS Dividend Yield 1.8% 2.0% 3.8% 4.3% 6.3% 8.0% 7

8 Hering Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Number of Stores (Hering Stores) Sales area (YoY grow th) - Hering Store 23.3% 16.2% 8.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% Same Store Sales - Hering Store -0.2% -0.6% -5.7% -0.9% 2.0% 5.0% 4.8% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES 1,491 1,680 1,678 1,703 1,781 1,886 1,987 COGS (812) (921) (945) (974) (1,010) (1,065) (1,117) GROSS PROFIT SG&A Expenses (307) (348) (364) (383) (415) (439) (463) Other operating results 1 (6) (13) (13) OPERATING INCOME EBITDA Financial Result EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES Income Tax & Contributions (99) (116) (73) (57) (50) (58) (72) NET INCOME MARGINS 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E SG&A as % of Sales 20.6% 20.7% 21.7% 22.5% 23.3% 23.3% 23.3% GROSS MARGIN 45.5% 45.2% 43.7% 42.8% 43.3% 43.5% 43.8% OPERATING MARGIN 25.0% 24.1% 21.3% 19.6% 19.2% 19.5% 19.7% EBITDA MARGIN 27.3% 26.1% 23.6% 22.3% 22.1% 22.4% 22.6% NET MARGIN 20.9% 18.9% 19.0% 18.7% 19.0% 18.6% 18.7% CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income Depreciation EBITDA Taxes (127) (138) (121) (113) (116) (125) (133) Working Capital (44) (123) (69) 20 (7) (28) (29) Operating Cash Flow Capex (64) (72) (97) (81) (73) (71) (58) Operating Free Cash Flow Net Interest Expenses FCF Equity (before D Debt) FCF Equity Yield (FCFE yield) 7.6% 4.9% 5.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 10.1% 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E # Shares EPS BVPS Cash Flow CFPS Dividend / Interest on Equity DPS Dividend Yield 3.7% 5.0% 5.3% 5.7% 9.7% 10.1% 10.7% DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT Cash TOTAL NET DEBT (170) (117) (161) (305) (343) (368) (414) Net fin exp / EBITDA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Net Debt to Equity -22% -13% -15% -24% -26% -27% -28% Net Debt to Total Capitalization -28% -15% -17% -32% -35% -36% -40% Net Debt/EBITDA (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) 8

9 Hering Principais Estimativas BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash Accounts Receivable Inventories Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS TOTAL ASSETS 1,182 1,299 1,444 1,615 1,700 1,786 1,875 Financing ST Suppliers Other Liabilities ST Financing LT Other Liabilities LT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ,088 1,247 1,314 1,385 1,459 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 1,182 1,299 1,444 1,615 1,700 1,786 1,875 Returns 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) Capital Employed ,016 1,045 ROCE (EBIT) 49% 42% 34% 30% 31% 32% 32% Invested Capital ,031 1,060 ROIC (EBIT) 44.8% 40.1% 33.1% 29.8% 30.7% 31.3% 31.4% WACC 14% 15% 18% 14% 14% 14% 14% ROIC/WACC ROE 41.6% 37.6% 32.0% 27.2% 26.4% 26.0% 26.1% MOMENTUM 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 10.2% 12.6% -0.1% 1.5% 4.6% 5.9% 5.4% EBIT Grow th 2.2% 8.5% -11.8% -6.6% 2.6% 7.4% 6.7% EBITDA Grow th 3.3% 7.8% -9.8% -4.1% 3.6% 7.4% 6.5% Earnings Grow th 4.6% 2.3% 0.2% -0.3% 6.3% 4.0% 5.7% MULTIPLES 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $16.8 $16.8 $16.8 $16.8 $16.8 $16.8 $16.8 Market Cap (R$m) 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,776 Net Debt (170) (117) (161) (305) (343) (368) (414) EV 2,606 2,658 2,615 2,471 2,433 2,407 2,362 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E PEG ratio P/CF EV/Sales P/BV A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Market Cap 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 Target Price BRL/Share $22.3 Upside % 33.0% Total Return % 38.0% Multiples at Target 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $ 22.3 $ 22.3 $ 22.3 $ 22.3 $ 22.3 $ 22.3 $ 22.3 Target Mcap 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 3,691 Net Debt (170) (117) (161) (305) (343) (368) (414) EV 3,521 3,574 3,530 3,386 3,348 3,323 3,277 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF EV/Sales

10 Natura Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Domestic Market % 89.3% 86.5% 84.7% 83.3% 82.2% 80.2% 78.2% External Market % 10.7% 13.5% 15.3% 16.7% 17.8% 19.8% 21.8% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES 6,346 7,010 7,408 7,750 8,283 8,837 9,505 CASH COGS (1,868) (2,105) (2,250) (2,405) (2,558) (2,719) (2,921) GROSS PROFIT 4,478 4,905 5,158 5,345 5,725 6,118 6,584 S, G & A Expenses (3,108) (3,489) (3,794) (3,958) (4,229) (4,520) (4,875) Depreciation (141) (193) (190) (224) (251) (279) (308) OPERATING INCOME 1,370 1,416 1,365 1,388 1,495 1,598 1,709 EBITDA 1,511 1,609 1,555 1,611 1,746 1,877 2,017 Recurring EBITDA 1,511 1,591 1,555 1,611 1,746 1,877 2,017 Financial Result (72) (158) (268) (343) (152) (168) (176) EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES 1,297 1,258 1,096 1,044 1,344 1,430 1,533 Income Tax & Contributions (424) (415) (364) (336) (436) (459) (489) NET INCOME ,044 MARGINS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E GROSS MARGIN 70.6% 70.0% 69.6% 69.0% 69.1% 69.2% 69.3% SG&A as % of Sales 49.0% 49.8% 51.2% 51.1% 51.1% 51.2% 51.3% OPERATING MARGIN 21.6% 20.2% 18.4% 17.9% 18.1% 18.1% 18.0% EBITDA MARGIN 23.8% 23.0% 21.0% 20.8% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2% EBITDA MARGIN, recurring 23.8% 22.7% 21.0% 20.8% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2% NET MARGIN 13.8% 12.0% 9.9% 9.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income 1,370 1,416 1,365 1,388 1,495 1,598 1,709 Depreciation EBITDA 1,511 1,609 1,555 1,611 1,746 1,877 2,017 Cash Taxes (424) (410) (355) (328) (426) (448) (477) Working Capital 191 (251) (298) 159 (43) (45) (54) Operating Cash Flow 1, ,443 1,278 1,384 1,486 Capex (437) (554) (506) (385) (414) (442) (428) Operating Free Cash Flow , ,059 Net Interest Expenses (72) (158) (268) (343) (152) (168) (176) FCF Equity (before Debt) FCF Equity Yield (FCFE yield) 6.8% 2.1% 1.1% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 7.9% Dividend Yield 7.6% 7.7% 6.3% 6.3% 8.1% 6.9% 7.4% 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Shares Outstanding (m) BVPS Cash Flow 1,014 1, ,159 1,250 1,352 CFPS Dividend / Interest on Equity DPS

11 Natura Principais Estimativas BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash 1,643 1,309 1,696 2,243 2,244 2,422 2,525 Accounts Receivable ,011 1,087 Inventories ,014 Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 1,241 1,917 2,281 2,443 2,606 2,768 2,888 TOTAL ASSETS 5,375 6,248 7,200 7,918 8,238 8,739 9,160 Financing ST ,467 1,669 1,745 1,816 1,840 Suppliers Other Liabilities ST ,053 1,100 1,166 1,235 1,318 Financing LT 1,325 2,201 2,515 2,861 2,993 3,113 3,155 Other Liabilities LT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 1,306 1,168 1,149 1,149 1,149 1,343 1,552 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 5,375 6,248 7,200 7,918 8,238 8,739 9,160 DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT 2,325 2,894 3,981 4,530 4,738 4,928 4,996 Cash 1,643 1,309 1,696 2,243 2,244 2,422 2,525 TOTAL NET DEBT 681 1,585 2,285 2,287 2,494 2,507 2,471 Net fin exp / EBITDA 5% 10% 17% 21% 9% 9% 9% Net Debt to Equity 52% 136% 199% 199% 217% 187% 159% Net Debt to Total Capitalization 34% 58% 67% 67% 68% 65% 61% Net Debt/EBITDA Returns 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) ,010 1,085 1,164 Capital Employed 1,988 2,753 3,434 3,436 3,642 3,850 4,022 ROCE (EBIT) 47% 40% 29% 27% 29% 29% 30% ROE 68% 68% 63% 62% 79% 78% 72% Invested Capital 1,561 2,487 3,172 3,174 3,381 3,588 3,761 ROIC (EBIT) 59% 47% 32% 30% 31% 31% 32% WACC 9% 10% 11% 16% 13% 13% 12% ROIC/WACC MOMENTUM 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 13.5% 10.5% 5.7% 4.6% 6.9% 6.7% 7.6% EBIT Grow th 4.1% 3.4% -3.6% 1.7% 7.8% 6.9% 6.9% EBITDA Grow th 6.0% 6.5% -3.4% 3.7% 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% Earnings Grow th 5.1% -3.5% -13.0% -3.3% 28.1% 7.0% 7.5% MULTIPLES 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 Market Cap (R$m) 11,212 11,212 11,212 11,212 11,212 11,212 11,212 Net Debt 681 1,585 2,285 2,287 2,494 2,507 2,471 EV 11,894 12,797 13,497 13,499 13,706 13,719 13,683 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E PEG ratio 2.52 (3.83) (1.17) (4.77) P/BV A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Market Cap 14,194 14,194 14,194 14,194 14,194 14,194 14,194 Target Price R$/Share $32.9 Upside % 26.5% Total Return % 34.2% Multiples at Target 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $32.90 $32.90 $32.90 $32.90 $32.90 $32.90 $32.90 Target Mcap 14,188 14,188 14,188 14,188 14,188 14,188 14,188 Net Debt 681 1,585 2,285 2,287 2,494 2,507 2,471 EV 14,869 15,772 16,473 16,475 16,681 16,695 16,659 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF P/BV

12 RaiaDrogasil Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Number of Stores 967 1,091 1,221 1,351 1,481 1,611 Mature Stores SSS 4.7% 4.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% SSS 9.3% 9.3% 10.0% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% RESULTS 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E GROSS REVENUES 6,464 7,659 9,030 10,559 12,254 14,110 Deductions (220) (267) (315) (369) (428) (492) NET REVENUES 6,244 7,392 8,714 10,190 11,826 13,617 COGS (4,511) (5,281) (6,216) (7,260) (8,415) (9,679) GROSS PROFIT 1,732 2,110 2,498 2,931 3,411 3,939 SG&A Expenses (1,534) (1,792) (2,088) (2,404) (2,778) (3,172) OPERATING INCOME (EBIT) Depreciation & amortization (includes PPA) EBITDA ,047 Financial Result (10) (7) (4) EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES Income Tax & Contributions (12) (41) (74) (99) (118) (174) NET INCOME ADJ NET INCOME BALANCE SHEET 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash Accounts Receivable Inventories 1,133 1,340 1,553 1,794 2,056 2,365 Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 1,687 1,773 1,871 1,955 2,042 2,134 Intangible 1,151 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 Key Money TOTAL ASSETS 3,614 4,049 4,501 5,034 5,635 6,287 Financing ST Suppliers ,060 1,278 1,528 1,812 Other Liabilities ST Financing LT Other Liabilities LT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 2,327 2,457 2,673 2,934 3,224 3,528 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 3,614 4,049 4,501 5,034 5,635 6,287 DEBT SITUATION 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT Cash TOTAL NET DEBT 3 0 (34) (121) (236) (341) Net fin exp / EBITDA -2.9% -1.4% -0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% Net Debt to Equity 0.1% 0.0% -1.3% -4.1% -7.3% -9.7% Net Debt to Total Capitalization 0.1% 0.0% -1.3% -4.3% -7.9% -10.7% Net Debt/EBITDA CASH FLOW 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income (EBIT) Depreciation EBITDA ,047 Cash taxes (67) (108) (140) (179) (215) (261) Working Capital (5) (79) (84) (90) (87) (108) Operating Cash Flow Capex (237) (271) (306) (314) (342) (372) Operating Free Cash Flow Net Interest Expenses (10) (7) (4) FCFE (before Debt) FCFE Yield (FCFE yield) 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 3.6% 12

13 RaiaDrogasil Principais Estimativas MARGINS 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E SG&A as % of Gross Sales 23.7% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 22.7% 22.5% GROSS MARGIN 26.8% 27.6% 27.7% 27.8% 27.8% 27.9% OPERATING MARGIN 3.1% 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% EBITDA MARGIN 5.5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% NET MARGIN 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% RETURNS 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) normalized tax rate Capital Employed 2,330 2,457 2,640 2,813 2,988 3,187 ROCE (EBIT) 6.0% 9.3% 11.3% 13.5% 15.3% 17.4% Invested Capital (ex-intangible) 1,478 1,648 1,831 2,004 2,179 2,378 ROIC (ex-intangible) 9.7% 14.3% 16.5% 19.2% 21.2% 23.5% WACC 13.4% 14.0% 14.9% 12.5% 12.2% 12.8% ROIC/WACC ROE 6.4% 10.2% 11.9% 14.3% 16.1% 18.0% MOMENTUM 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 16.0% 18.4% 17.9% 16.9% 16.1% 15.1% EBIT Grow th -6.9% 60.7% 28.8% 28.2% 20.4% 20.9% EBITDA Grow th 9.3% 41.8% 22.1% 22.5% 17.4% 17.8% Earnings Grow th 15.6% 53.8% 23.1% 30.5% 21.5% 15.1% MULTIPLES 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $26.8 $26.8 $26.8 $26.8 $26.8 $26.8 Market Cap (R$m) 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 Adj. Market Cap (R$m) 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 8,854 Net Debt 3 0 (34) (121) (236) (341) EV 8,857 8,854 8,821 8,734 8,618 8,514 Adj. EV 8,857 8,854 8,821 8,734 8,618 8,514 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E PEG ratio P/CF EV/Sales P/BV Target Price BRL/Share $30.2 Upside % 12.7% Total Return % 13.1% Multiples at Target 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $ 30.2 $ 30.2 $ 30.2 $ 30.2 $ 30.2 $ 30.2 Target Mcap 9,978 9,978 9,978 9,978 9,978 9,978 Net Debt 3 0 (34) (121) (236) (341) EV 9,981 9,978 9,944 9,857 9,741 9,637 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF EV/Sales

14 Hypermarcas Principais Estimativas Operational Data 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Pharma as % of sales 53.6% 54.7% 55.2% 56.4% 57.8% 58.3% 58.8% Consumer as % of sales 46.4% 45.3% 44.8% 43.6% 42.2% 41.7% 41.2% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES 3,874 4,259 4,680 5,168 5,690 6,142 6,625 COGS (1,465) (1,510) (1,698) (1,891) (2,058) (2,211) (2,376) GROSS PROFIT 2,409 2,749 2,982 3,276 3,632 3,931 4,249 Cash SG&A (1,529) (1,699) (1,861) (2,004) (2,168) (2,327) (2,499) Depreciation (98) (105) (110) (120) (123) (125) (127) Other operating revenues (11) (48) (101) (72) (80) (80) (80) OPERATING INCOME ,080 1,261 1,399 1,544 EBITDA 882 1,011 1,024 1,200 1,384 1,524 1,671 Non recurring (17) (15) ADJ EBITDA ,106 1,230 1,394 1,524 1,671 Financial Result (425) (583) (417) (443) (413) (369) (307) EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES ,030 1,237 Income Tax & Contributions (118) (55) (81) (115) (178) (226) (283) Reported Net Income BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash 1,736 1,159 1,830 1,641 1,813 1,036 1,160 Accounts Receivable 1,209 1,229 1,554 1,717 1,910 2,072 2,243 Inventories Other Assets ST ,025 Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 8,331 8,472 8,618 8,663 8,690 8,722 8,761 TOTAL ASSETS 12,657 12,502 13,888 14,054 14,489 14,017 14,466 Financing ST , Suppliers Other Liabilities ST Financing LT 3,753 3,177 3,082 4,338 4,338 3,367 3,223 Other Liabilities LT ,143 SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 6,868 7,079 7,476 7,867 8,001 8,162 8,352 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 12,657 12,502 13,888 14,054 14,489 14,017 14,466 DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT 4,438 4,076 4,864 4,389 4,389 3,419 3,275 Cash 1,736 1,159 1,830 1,641 1,813 1,036 1,160 TOTAL NET DEBT 2,701 2,917 3,034 2,749 2,576 2,382 2,115 Net fin exp / EBITDA 49% 58% 41% 37% 30% 24% 18% Net Debt to Equity 39% 41% 41% 35% 32% 29% 25% Interest Coverage 28% 29% 29% 26% 24% 23% 20% Net Debt/EBITDA 3.1x 2.9x 3.0x 2.3x 1.9x 1.6x 1.3x CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income ,080 1,261 1,399 1,544 Depreciation EBITDA 869 1,001 1,020 1,200 1,384 1,524 1,671 Cash Taxes (23) (9) (21) Working Capital 161 (296) (192) (176) (112) (160) (168) Operating Cash Flow 1, ,024 1,272 1,364 1,503 Capex (221) (224) (196) (165) (150) (158) (166) Operating Free Cash Flow ,122 1,206 1,338 Net Interest Expenses (425) (583) (417) (443) (413) (369) (307) FCF Equity (before D debt) 361 (110) ,031 FCFE Yield 2.8% -0.9% 1.5% 3.2% 5.5% 6.5% 8.0% 14

15 Hypermarcas Principais Estimativas MARGINS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E SG&A as % of Sales 39.5% 39.9% 39.8% 38.8% 38.1% 37.9% 37.7% GROSS MARGIN 62.2% 64.5% 63.7% 63.4% 63.8% 64.0% 64.1% OPERATING MARGIN 19.9% 21.1% 19.4% 20.9% 22.2% 22.8% 23.3% EBITDA MARGIN 22.8% 23.7% 21.9% 23.2% 24.3% 24.8% 25.2% ADJ EBITDA MARGIN 22.3% 23.4% 23.6% 23.8% 24.5% 24.8% 25.2% NET MARGIN 5.3% 6.1% 8.8% 10.1% 11.8% 13.1% 14.4% RETURNS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) ,080 1,261 1,399 1,544 Capital Employed 9,570 9,996 10,510 10,615 10,577 10,544 10,467 ROCE (EBIT) 8% 9% 8% 10% 12% 13% 15% Invested Capital 9,644 10,080 10,407 10,627 10,767 10,960 11,166 Invested Capital Ex-Goodw ill 2,692 3,131 3,456 3,677 3,816 4,009 4,215 ROIC (EBIT) 7.4% 8.8% 8.5% 10.3% 11.8% 12.9% 14.0% ROIC 34% IR/CSLL ex-goodw ill 18.8% 20.3% 18.2% 20.0% 22.2% 23.6% 24.8% WACC 11.8% 12.7% 12.2% 14.9% 13.8% 13.1% 12.6% ROIC/WACC MOMENTUM 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 16.5% 9.9% 9.9% 10.4% 10.1% 7.9% 7.9% EBIT Grow th 83.1% 16.3% 1.5% 18.6% 16.8% 10.9% 10.4% EBITDA Grow th 21.4% 15.2% 11.1% 11.2% 13.4% 9.3% 9.7% Earnings Grow th nm 26.8% 59.3% 26.4% 28.8% 19.7% 18.8% MULTIPLES 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $19.4 $19.4 $19.4 $19.4 $19.4 $19.4 $19.4 Market Cap (BRLm) 12,805 12,805 12,805 12,805 12,805 12,805 12,805 Adj Market Cap 11,460 11,460 11,460 11,460 11,460 11,460 11,460 Net Debt 2,701 2,917 3,034 2,749 2,576 2,382 2,115 EV 15,506 15,723 15,840 15,554 15,381 15,187 14,920 Adj EV 14,161 14,377 14,494 14,208 14,036 13,842 13,574 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E PEG ratio nm P/CF A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Market Cap 14,206 End-15 Target Price BRL/Share 21.5 Upside % 10.9% Total Return % 12.0% Multiples at Target 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price BRL/share $ 21.5 $ 21.5 $ 21.5 $ 21.5 $ 21.5 $ 21.5 $ 21.5 Target Mcap 14,206 14,206 14,206 14,206 14,206 14,206 14,206 Net Debt 2,701 2,917 3,034 2,749 2,576 2,382 2,115 EV 16,907 17,123 17,240 16,955 16,782 16,588 16,321 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF

16 Lojas Renner Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Number of Stores Sales area (000 m²) Net Sales/average m² (R$ 000) 9,677 9,566 10,061 10,413 10,539 10,323 10,113 Same Store Sales 8.8% 5.8% 11.1% 8.4% 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES 3,462 3,914 4,643 5,335 5,974 6,797 7,934 COGS (1,616) (1,838) (2,143) (2,445) (2,708) (3,047) (3,517) GROSS PROFIT 1,846 2,076 2,499 2,890 3,266 3,750 4,417 SG&A Expenses (1,296) (1,413) (1,689) (1,941) (2,185) (2,465) (2,865) Consumer Finance Depreciation (133) (167) (213) (261) (318) (340) (426) OPERATING INCOME ,040 1,245 1,433 EBITDA ,028 1,191 1,357 1,584 1,859 EBITDA (reported) ,053 1,226 1,399 1,618 1,899 Financial Result (50) (68) (94) (81) (70) (62) (72) EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES ,182 1,362 Income Tax & Contributions (153) (175) (237) (236) (258) (314) (358) Statutory Participation + Non-operating (6) (6) (13) (14) (15) (18) (21) NET INCOME BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash , Accounts Receivable 1,280 1,572 1,909 2,254 2,559 2,903 3,354 Inventories Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 1,102 1,386 1,672 1,957 2,066 2,496 2,889 TOTAL ASSETS 3,770 4,516 5,322 5,966 6,637 7,337 8,202 Financing ST Suppliers Other Liabilities ST ,027 1,104 1,211 Financing LT 645 1,047 1,395 1,573 1,700 1,727 1,777 Other Liabilities LT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 1,306 1,493 1,855 2,215 2,633 3,143 3,733 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 3,770 4,516 5,322 5,966 6,637 7,337 8,202 DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT 1,315 1,782 1,955 2,132 2,259 2,286 2,336 Cash , TOTAL NET DEBT ,121 1,308 1,249 1,424 1,597 Net fin exp / EBITDA 7% 8% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% Net Debt to Equity 48% 66% 60% 59% 47% 45% 43% Net Debt to Total Capitalization 5% 8% 9% 11% 32% 31% 30% Net Debt/EBITDA CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income ,040 1,245 1,433 Depreciation EBITDA ,028 1,191 1,357 1,584 1,859 Cash Taxes (153) (175) (237) (236) (258) (314) (358) Working Capital (184) (244) (184) (262) (250) (255) (370) Operating Cash Flow ,016 1,131 Capex (382) (412) (502) (546) (427) (769) (819) Operating Free Cash Flow (21) Net Interest Expenses (50) (68) (94) (81) (70) (62) (72) FCFE (before Debt) (72) (62) FCFE Yield (FCFE yield) -0.7% -0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% 1.7% 2.2% 16

17 Lojas Renner Principais Estimativas MARGINS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E SG&A as % of Sales 37.4% 36.1% 36.4% 36.4% 36.6% 36.3% 36.1% GROSS MARGIN 53.3% 53.0% 53.8% 54.2% 54.7% 55.2% 55.7% OPERATING MARGIN 16.3% 17.1% 17.6% 17.4% 17.4% 18.3% 18.1% EBITDA MARGIN 20.2% 21.4% 22.1% 22.3% 22.7% 23.3% 23.4% NET MARGIN 10.3% 10.7% 10.2% 11.2% 11.7% 12.5% 12.4% RETURNS 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) ,075 Capital Employed 1,938 2,474 2,976 3,523 3,882 4,567 5,330 ROCE (EBIT) 24.5% 22.4% 21.2% 21.4% 21.1% 22.0% 21.7% Invested Capital 1,861 2,388 2,859 3,406 3,766 4,450 5,213 ROIC (EBIT) 25% 23% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22% WACC 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 12% 12% ROIC/WACC ROE 28.9% 30.0% 28.2% 29.5% 28.7% 29.5% 28.6% MOMENTUM 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 19.5% 13.1% 18.6% 14.9% 12.0% 13.8% 16.7% EBIT Grow th 18.5% 18.4% 21.8% 14.1% 11.8% 19.7% 15.2% EBITDA Grow th 21.5% 19.8% 22.9% 15.8% 14.0% 16.7% 17.3% Earnings Grow th 5.5% 18.3% 12.2% 27.2% 16.1% 22.2% 15.5% MULTIPLES 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $85.9 $85.9 $85.9 $85.9 $85.9 $85.9 $85.9 Market Cap (R$m) 10,943 10,943 10,943 10,943 10,943 10,943 10,943 Net Debt ,121 1,308 1,249 1,424 1,597 EV 11,575 11,924 12,064 12,251 12,193 12,367 12,540 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E PEG ratio P/CF EV/Sales P/BV A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Market Cap 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 Target Price R$/Share $100.0 Upside % 16.4% Total Return % 18.9% Multiples at Target 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Target Mcap 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 12,739 Net Debt ,121 1,308 1,249 1,424 1,597 EV 13,372 13,720 13,860 14,047 13,989 14,163 14,337 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E P/CF EV/Sales

18 Guararapes Principais Estimativas OPERATING DATA 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Number of Stores Net Sales / Sqm 7,196 7,290 7,161 7,175 7,112 7,060 7,079 Sales area (000 m²) - eop Area Expansion - YoY 13.5% 18.5% 13.6% 13.3% 11.7% 10.5% 7.1% SSS 5.2% 7.3% 1.4% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 5.1% RESULTS 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E NET REVENUES merchandise 2,799 3,293 3,748 4,260 4,749 5,237 5,709 COGS (1,305) (1,485) (1,688) (1,948) (2,172) (2,369) (2,553) GROSS PROFIT 1,494 1,808 2,061 2,312 2,578 2,869 3,156 SG&A Expenses (1,223) (1,482) (1,787) (1,971) (2,237) (2,481) (2,723) Consumer Finance Midw ay Mall % 22.7% 22.5% 23.3% 22.9% 22.5% 22.2% OPERATING INCOME Depreciation EBITDA ex-ir Tax Benefit ,086 1,179 1,270 EBITDA Merchandise EBITDA Consumer Finance + Other EBITDA Midw ay Mall Reported EBITDA ,039 1,130 1,179 1,270 Net Financial Result (20) (35) (30) (35) (55) (75) (86) EBT Income Tax & Contributions (165) (150) (167) (244) (219) (230) (248) IR Tax Benefit NET INCOME ADJ NET INCOME BALANCE SHEET 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash Accounts Receivable 1,291 1,522 2,103 2,423 2,666 2,926 3,178 Inventories ,086 1,170 Other Assets ST Other Assets LT FIXED ASSETS 1,694 1,935 2,106 2,269 2,427 2,581 2,644 TOTAL ASSETS 4,241 4,758 5,941 6,606 7,201 7,756 8,329 Financing ST Suppliers Other Liabilities ST ,174 1,319 1,457 1,595 1,728 Financing LT ,091 1,191 Other Liabilities LT SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 2,527 2,829 3,176 3,556 3,879 4,167 4,478 TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 4,241 4,758 5,941 6,606 7,201 7,756 8,329 CASH FLOW 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating Income Depreciation IR Tax Benefit EBITDA ,039 1,130 1,179 1,270 Cash taxes (172) (194) (215) (262) (285) (307) (330) Working Capital (68) (100) (445) (298) (189) (199) (191) Operating Cash Flow Capex (270) (391) (359) (384) (406) (428) (365) Operating Free Cash Flow (131) Net Interest Expenses (20) (35) (30) (35) (55) (75) (86) FCFE (before Debt) (160) FCFE Yield 3.5% 1.2% -3.3% 1.2% 4.1% 3.5% 6.2% FCFF (before Debt) (131) FCFF Yield 4.0% 2.0% -2.7% 2.0% 5.2% 5.1% 8.0% 18

19 Guararapes Principais Estimativas MARGINS 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E SG&A as % of Sales 43.7% 45.0% 47.7% 46.3% 47.1% 47.4% 47.7% GROSS MARGIN 53.4% 54.9% 55.0% 54.3% 54.3% 54.8% 55.3% OPERATING MARGIN 18.0% 17.4% 16.9% 18.1% 17.6% 17.3% 17.0% EBITDA MARGIN 25.0% 23.7% 23.7% 24.4% 23.8% 22.5% 22.2% EBITDA MARGIN (ex-ir Tax Benefit) 23.4% 22.7% 22.5% 23.3% 22.9% 22.5% 22.2% NET MARGIN 13.1% 12.8% 12.8% 12.6% 12.8% 11.5% 11.1% DEBT SITUATION 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TOTAL FINANCIAL DEBT ,003 1,103 1,203 1,303 1,403 Cash TOTAL NET DEBT Net fin exp / EBITDA 3% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7% Net Debt to Equity 6% 6% 14% 15% 14% 15% 12% Net Debt/EBITDA RETURNS 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBIT (1-t) Capital Employed 2,691 2,997 3,617 4,078 4,425 4,778 5,033 ROCE (EBIT) 14.6% 15.8% 15.2% 14.7% 15.3% 14.2% 14.2% Invested Capital 2,835 3,177 3,793 4,254 4,601 4,954 5,208 Fixed Assets 1,694 1,935 2,106 2,269 2,427 2,581 2,644 Working Capital 1,141 1,242 1,687 1,985 2,174 2,373 2,564 ROIC 13.9% 14.9% 14.5% 14.0% 14.7% 13.7% 13.7% WACC 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% ROIC/WACC ROE 15.3% 15.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.3% 14.9% 14.7% MOMENTUM 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues Grow th 14.5% 17.7% 13.8% 13.7% 11.5% 10.3% 9.0% EBIT Grow th 5.2% 13.3% 10.6% 21.9% 8.6% 8.0% 7.2% EBITDA (ex-ir Tax Benefit) Grow th 10.9% 14.1% 13.1% 17.5% 9.4% 8.6% 7.8% Earnings Grow th 0.5% 15.1% 14.2% 12.2% 12.8% -1.2% 5.9% MULTIPLES 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Price (hist avg / closing) $76.8 $76.8 $76.8 $76.8 $76.8 $76.8 $76.8 Market Cap (R$m) 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,792 Net Debt EV 4,956 4,960 5,234 5,314 5,338 5,404 5,348 EV/EBITDA P/E Adj P/E (ex-tax Benefits) PEG ratio EV/Sales P/BV A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Market Cap 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 Target Price R$/Share $104.0 Upside % 35.4% Total Return % 38.2% Multiples at Target 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Target Price R$/share $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Target Mcap 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 6,490 Net Debt EV 6,654 6,657 6,931 7,012 7,036 7,101 7,045 EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA to Grow th EV/EBIT P/E P/CF EV/Sales