Fórum de Investidores de Projetos de Infraestrutura 2016

Transcrição

1 Fórum de Investidores de Projetos de Infraestrutura 216 Desempenho e Perspectiva para Infraestrutura no Brasil Bernardo Costa Senior Director Global Infrastructure Group 26 de outubro, 216

2 1 Investimento -25,% -2,% -15,% -1,% -5,%,% 5,% 1,% 15,% 212 T1 212 T2 212 T3 212 T4 213 T1 213 T2 213 T3 213 T4 214 T1 214 T2 214 T3 214 T4 215 T1 215 T2 215 T3 215 T4 216 T1 216 T2 Investimento Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo Source: ipeadata

3 Produção e Confiança Produção 1,%,% -1,% Importacoes (USD) Exportações Produção Industrial jun/216-2,% -3,% Source: bacen Índices de Confiança Confiança Empresario Industrial Consumo Energia Industrial 3,% 2,% 1,%,% -1,% -2,% -3,% Source: bacen jun/216 set/216 2,% 1,%,% -1,% -2,% -3,% -4,% -5,% -6,% -7,% 2

4 Economia x Tráfego Variação PIB x ABCR PIB PIB Ind PIB Agro ABCR Cresc. Médio 1,% 8,% 6,% 4,% 2,%,% -2,% jun/216-4,% -6,% -8,% Source: Bacen 3

5 Taxas e Poder de Compra Inflação e Taxas Juros Reais CDI TJLP IPCA 16,% 12,% 8,% 4,%,% Source: bacen jun/216 jul/216 ago/216 set/216 Poder de Compra Emprego, Renda, e Crédito 15,% Desemprego % Crescimento Renda Real Credito Total 1,% 5,%,% -5,% jun/216 jul/216 ago/216-1,% Source: bacen e PNAD 4

6 Ações e Perspectivas de Rating Ações de Rating 15 Elevacoes Rebaixamentos Razão (dir.) Source: Fitch out/ Perspectiva Ratings CCC(bra); 14,3% Positiva; 2,9% Source: Fitch RWN; 2,% Negativo; 5,7% Estavel; 57,1% 5

7 Brasil x Latam Índice Crescimento PIB Latam Brasil Uruguay Peru Chile Argentina Mexico Colombia 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,,95, Source: Fitch 6

8 Ativos de Energia - Geração Source: Boletim Informações Gerenciais 2TRI216 - ANEEL 7

9 Ativos de Energia - Geração Reservatórios Reservatorio NE Reservatorio SE/CO/SUL 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 Source: ONS 14% 15% 5% GSF e PLD GSF PLD 1% % 92% 61 6% 96% 94% 94% 94% % 4% 85% 89% 88% 86% 79% 227 2% % jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 Source: CCEE

10 Geração e Transmissão Source: Boletim Informações Gerenciais 2TRI216 - ANEEL 9

11 Programa de Parceria de Investimento (PPI) Principais Ativos 4 Aeroportos 2 Rodovias 2 Terminais 3 Ferrovias 3 UHEs Ativos Óleo e Gás Ativos de Mineração Distribuidoras de Energia Distribuidoras Água e Esgoto Financiamento BNDES Aeroportos: 4% Rodovia: 5% Equity Mínimo: 2% Amortização: SAC Prazo Máximo: 15 Anos DSCR Mínimo: 1,3x 1

12 Estimando o WACC Anterior Financiamento BNDES Debenture Equity Custo de BNDES 7,82% Custo de Debenture 12,89% Custo de Equity (CAPM) 21,5% % Total 7% 1% 2% TJLP 5,5% IPCA 5,5% Risk Free 9,5% Custo 7,82% 12,89% 21,5% Spread 2,2% Spread 7% Retorno de Mercado 17,5% WACC 9,88% Impostos 28% Beta 1,5 Atual Financiamento BNDES Debenture Equity Custo de BNDES 9,86% Custo de Debenture 15,% Custo de Equity (CAPM) 24,5% % Total 5% 3% 2% TJLP 7,5% IPCA 5,5% Risk Free 9,5% Custo 9,86% 15,% 24,5% Spread 2,2% Spread 9% Retorno de Mercado 19,5% WACC 12,98% Impostos 28% Beta 1,5 11

13 O Mercado Capitais Emissões Debêntures de Infraestrutura Source: ANBIMA Volume Numero Emissoes set/216 Alocação/Perfil do Investidor 1% 2% 4% Pessoas Físicas Inst. Financeiras % 45% Fundos de Investimento Distribuição Source: ANBIMA 25% Previdencia Outros 12

14 Fitch Ratings credit ratings rely on factual information received from issuers and other sources. Fitch Ratings cannot ensure that all such information will be accurate and complete. Further, ratings are inherently forwardlooking, embody assumptions and predictions that by their nature cannot be verified as facts, and can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating was issued or affirmed. The information in this presentation is provided as is without any representation or warranty. A Fitch Ratings credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security and does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. A Fitch Ratings report is not a substitute for information provided to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with a sale of securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch Ratings. The agency does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS AT 13

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