Guiana Shield x Calha Norte Paraense

Transcrição

1 Guiana Shield x Calha Norte Paraense

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4 Highlights of Guiana Shield Is an eco-region with: Quarter of the world s remaining tropical forests The lowest density of human population of any tropical rainforest area High forest low deforestation region Has relatively little historical deforestation.

5 97 millions ha Protected Areas

6 32 millions ha Protected Areas

7 22 millones ha Protected Areas

8 Conservation Units of Calha Norte Flota do Paru = 3,6 millions ha Flota do Trombetas = 3,2 millions ha Flota de Faro = 0,61 million ha Esec Grão-Pará = 4,2 millions ha Rebio Maicuru = 1,2 million ha

9 Timeline MZEE Termo de cooperação técnica Consórcio Calha Norte Início planos de manejo Conselhos consultivos Roteiro metodológico Oficinas Publicação dos PMs Implementação dos PM Crieation Detalhamento MZEE Estudos técnicos Consultas públicas Criação Developing of Management Plans Implementation Levantamentos de campo Conclusão dos planos Estudos Esec e Rebio Estudo potencial econômico Estudo REDD Publicação PM Paru

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11 SAPEG about 100 participants Local managers of Protected Areas, communities representatives, municipalities and partner organizations with active role in the territory; Interaction, integration, and sharing experiences to obtain a full land management of Protected Areas

12 Modeling Regional Scenarios for the Guiana Shield Priscilla Miranda, Stefano Crema, Amintas Brandão Jr., and Lisa Famolare Regional Workshop on REDD+ MRV Implementation and driver / December 2013

13 However, an increase in socio-economic activities such as the construction of new roads and mining projects, are threatening increase the deforestation rate. It is vital to reach a balance between socio-economic development and sustainable land use practices. This study focuses on the development of models for future land-use trends in the Guiana Shield under business-as-usual and high pressure scenarios. The analysis was performed using the Land Change Modeler tool within the IDRISI software.

14 Study Area The study was developed in an area of 1,040,860 km 2. This area encompasses Guyana, Suriname, French Guyana, and Brazil.

15 Data gathering Gather at least two historical landuse maps for each country Develop an unique classification scheme for the project from landuse maps Each landuse map contains the following classes: Forest Non-forest Water Clouds Other Develop and test a series of potential drivers of deforestation Accessibility to markets Elevation Proximity to roads Proximity to mining Forest concessions Convert all data to IDRISI format to be used on the Land Change Modeler module within the IDRISI GIS software

16 Development of Baselines Analysis of at least two historical landuse maps to assess historical changes Empirically model landcover change from Forest to Non-forest Incorporate the variables that explain the process of landcover change If a third image is available model a third date to compare the result with a the known third date The validation process allows for a better calibration of the model A successful model will demonstrate that areas that changed from Forest to Non-forest are the same areas that actually changed.

17 Development of Baselines Drivers of Change Distance to Rivers Suriname Distance to Amerindian areas Guyana

18 Development of Baselines Transition Potential Transition Potential Brazil Transition Potential Guyana

19 Historical Change - Guyana Between 1990 and 2010 a total of km² of forest was deforestation Land cover map (1990) Land cover map (2010)

20 Historical Change - Suriname Between 1990 and 2010 a total of km² of forest was deforestation Land cover map (2000) Land cover map (2009)

21 Historical Change - Brazil Between 2000 and 2009 a total of 8, km² of forest was deforestation Land cover map (2000) Land cover map (2009)

22 Future Deforestation Scenarios Two scenarios are presented here 1. Business-as-usual scenario It uses the historical rate in the projection 2. High pressure scenario It uses the historical rate for Brazil (3.15%/year) for the whole study area

23 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual GUYANA A total of 14 variables were included in the model. These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation occurrence between Distance to agricultural areas Distance to median-scale mining Distance to secondary roads Elevation Histogram (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)

24 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual GUYANA Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

25 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual SURINAME A total of 13 variables were included in the model. These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation occurrence between Distance to medium rivers Distance to protected areas Distance to indigenous land Elevation Histogram (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)

26 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual SURINAME Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

27 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual BRAZIL A total of 12variables were included in the model. These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation occurrence between Distance to conservation units Distance to large cities Distance to unprotected areas Elevation Histogram (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)

28 Future Deforestation Scenarios Business-as-usual BRAZIL Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

29 Business-as-usual Scenario

30 Future Deforestation Scenarios High Pressure Scenario GUYANA Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

31 Future Deforestation Scenarios High Pressure Scenario SURINAME Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

32 Future Deforestation Scenarios High Pressure Scenario BRAZIL Hard Prediction Soft Prediction

33 High Pressure Scenario

34 Conclusion These results can be incorporated with information on different ecosystem services to better understand the impact that each scenario has on; biodiversity, carbon, water resources, etc.

35 Thank you Jakeline Pereira: Amintas Brandão:

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37 Planos de Manejo

38 Conselhos Consultivos (parceria com o Imaflora) Elaboração do Guia Formação dos Conselhos - Flota Faro: 14 conselheiros - Flota do Trombetas: 18 conselheiros - Flota do Paru: 24 conselheiros Capacitação dos Conselhos Elaboração do Regimento Interno

39 Roteiro Metodológico Este Roteiro foi o resultado de uma construção coletiva, através de fóruns de discussões, com especialistas da GTZ, CI-Brasil, Imazon e Sema - Diap. Apresenta as etapas e os passos necessários para a elaboração dos Planos de Manejo das Unidades de Conservação Paraenses. Foi publicado em setembro de 2009, no IX Congresso Brasileiro de Áreas Protegidas.

40 Estudo do Potencial Econômico das Flotas da Calha Norte A exploração de madeira e a coleta de castanha-do-brasil podem gerar R$ 4,4 bilhões ao longo de 20 anos ( ). Essas atividades podem gerar empregos diretos e indiretos a partir de Os governos federal, estadual e municipal poderão arrecadar R$ 887 milhões, ao longo desse período.