BRAZIL and RUSSIA: THE DIVERGING DEVELOPMENT PATHS? BRASIL e RUSSIA: OS DIVERGENTES CAMINHOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO? by/por Victor Krasilshchikov,

Transcrição

1 BRAZIL and RUSSIA: THE DIVERGING DEVELOPMENT PATHS? BRASIL e RUSSIA: OS DIVERGENTES CAMINHOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO? by/por Victor Krasilshchikov, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Moscow

2 FHC: o Brasil é uma Rússia Tropical. Quero com isso ressaltar o fato de os dois países estarem inseridos de maneira singular no Ocidente, de constituírem uma espécie de Outro Ocidente. A imagem que de si projetam os povos russo e brasileiro foi construída ao longo de um diálogo duradouro, e por vezes tenso, com o pensamento ocidental... Se a Rússia teve de contemporizar a influência ocidental com o passado eslavo e um rico mosaico de contribuições orientais, no Brasil a matriz ibérica transigiu com as culturas indígenas, africanas e dos vários povos que lá aportaram no decorrer dos últimos séculos, entre os quais milhões de árabes, judeus e asiáticos. O processo de acomodação das idéias importadas com os padrões locais de organização social e econômica foi pleno de ambigüidades.

3 Conclusão: Em muitas dessas propostas, quiçá em todas, o Brasil e a Rússia podem caminhar juntos. (F.H. Cardoso, 14 de Janeiro de 2002, Universidade de Moscou)

4 Brazil and Russia: Common essential features of social-economic history - pertinence to the second echelon of the capitalist development - the external dependency - uneven development and the internal centralperipheral structure of economy and society - conservative modernisation as the compromise between modernity and traditionalism - the role of the state in industrialisation

5 Brazil and Russia: Common essential features of social-economic history - intentions to democratization in the late-1950s the early 1960s and the counter-offensive of conservative forces (the events of 1964) - the attempts to change the existed model of development not changing its foundations and essence - modernisation trap and the crisis of statism - the neoliberal policy as the attempt of approach to new modernisation

6 Social actors of market fundamentalism The former USSR/ Russia: - the ruling nomenklatura (cratocracy) - actors of shadow economy - self-employed people and independent entrepreneurs Latin American countries - bourgeoisie affiliated with TNCs - old but modified tradeagrarian oligarchy financial and bond market agents - self-employed and people of informal sector of economy

7 Index of Honesty in Argentina, Brazil and Russia Index Position N of countries Index Position N of countries Index Position N of countries Argentina 2, , , Brazil 4, , , Russia 2, , , Sources: Transparency International. Global Corruption Reports 2003, 2005, 2009

8 Dynamics of GDP (light blue lines) and GDP per capita (yellow lines) in Argentina, Brazil and Russia, , 1990=100 per cent Argentina Brazil Russia

9 De-industrialisation of Russia Output of tractors, thousands/year 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 47,0 92,6 6,9 7,

10 De-industrialisation of Russia Output of machine-tools & equipment, thousands/year 140,0 120,0 119,0 100,0 80,0 74,2 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 8,9 5,

11 Change of the output profile-1 Output of motor cars, thousands/year 1400,0 1294,0 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 1103,0 980,7 400,0 200,0 257,3 0,

12 Change of the output profile-2, 1990=100 % Industry as a whole 75,4 49,7 46,2 58,7 61,0 65,3 69,3 74,8 82,3 Petroleum industry 84,6 68,7 67,4 77,4 84,4 93,9 102,0 104,4 109,0 Gas industry 98,0 87,1 85,2 90,7 93,5 98,4 101,2 102,5 102,8 Ferrous metallurgy 78,0 59,2 53,9 71,2 73,3 79,8 83,8 89,7 100,5 Alimentary industry 76,4 53,1 49,6 65,9 70,5 74,1 77,1 82,2 93,3 Calculated on: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2000, p. 302; 2004, p. 359; 2005, p.377, 2008, pp , 389

13 The Export of Russia and Brazil: Volume (million US$) and Structure Exportation of Russia, 2007, billion US$ Exportation of Brazil, 2008, million US$ 1; 41,4; 12% 4; 5159; 3% 2; 73,2; 21% 3; 73028; 37% 1; 92683; 46% 3; 237,4; 67% 2; 27073; 14% Manufaturados 3 - Básicos 2 Semimanufaturados 4 Operações especiais

14 The External Debt of Brazil and Russia, billion US$, by the end of year 600,0 500,0 471,0 483,5 400,0 300,0 200,0 236,2 160,0 169,5 175,1 193,2 198,3 Br Rus 100,0 0,

15 The share of public & private sectors in the external debt of Brazil and Russia, %% Brazil Russia 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 54,2 48,3 45,8 51,7 63,6 66,0 36,4 34,0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19,6 80,4 68,1 31,9 90,2 92,7 9,8 7,3 Public debt Private debt Public debt Private debt

16 Population of Russia, mln. 150,0 148,3 146,3 145,0 142,8 142,0 140,0 138,8 135,0 130,0 130,6 125,0 120, Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008, p.31

17 Life expectancy at birth, /07, years 67,5 65,3 65,3 64,6 69,2 69,3 68,1 69,5 Russia 70,0 69,7 64,8 64,2 63,4 59,7 56,4 50,1 Guatemala 72,0 71,7 67,7 66,6 65,6 64,9 62,2 58,4 Brazil 75,0 74,8 73,4 72,6 71,0 71,0 68,7 66,0 Argentina

18 Life expectancy at birth, /07, years 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 Ar Br Guat Rus 20,0 10,0 0, Sources: CEPAL, Anuarios Estadísticos.., Panorama Social; UNDP, Human Development Reports; Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008.

19 Poverty in Russia, Number of poor in Russia, mln. 60,0 50,0 40,0 50,0 36,5 42,3 35,6 30,0 20,0 10,0 10,4 25,2 18,9 0, Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008, p. 189

20 Poverty in Russia, The rate of poverty (the share of poor in the total population, %%) 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 33,5 24,8 29,0 24,6 20,0 17,7 15,0 13,4 10,0 5,0 7,0 0,

21 The share of households expenditures for food purchasing (without alcoholic beverages) in the total current expenditures, , by deciles Deciles A B C A B C A B C D E I 68,8 15,6 53,2 65,4 14,4 51,0 55,0 9,5 45,5 1981,0 165,4 II 66,1 15,1 51,0 63,5 13,5 50,0 51,8 8,3 43,5 2811,2 234,3 III 64,5 14,9 49,6 61,9 13,0 48,9 49,6 7,8 41,8 3427,3 285,6 IV 62,9 14,6 48,3 60,6 12,1 48,5 47,1 7,2 39,9 4049,5 337,5 V 60,8 13,6 47,2 57,9 10,9 47,0 44,5 6,7 37,8 4723,6 393,6 VI 57,9 12,2 45,7 55,0 9,9 45,1 41,3 5,5 35,8 5738,1 478,2 VII 52,6 11,0 41,6 50,1 8,6 41,5 35,4 4,5 30,9 7138,4 594,9 VIII 49,3 10,1 39,2 46,8 7,2 39,6 31,1 3,6 27,5 8863,3 738,6 IX 47,6 10,2 37,4 43,4 6,5 36,9 29,9 3,1 26, ,6 923,3 X 39,3 12,4 26,9 35,5 5,4 30,1 21,4 2,1 19, ,7 1551,1 Column A - all expenditures for food as percentage of the total current expendi-tures for ultimate consumption, B - supply of food in the natural form (yields of the kitchengardens, gifts from the countryside relatives, etc.) as percentage of the total current expenditures for ultimate consumption, C expenditures in monetary form for food purchasing as percentage of the total current expenditures, i.e. C=A B. Column D the average expenditure per capita (for the given decile of households), Russian roubles per month, at current prices, E the same magnitude expressed in Brazilian reais, at the exchange ratio.

22 The national ratio wages/poverty line, ratio year ratio year ratio year Argentina 5, , , Brazil 4, , , Chile 5, , , Mexico 3, , , Bolivia 4, , , Honduras 1, , , Paraguay 3, , , Russia 2, , , Sources: CEPAL, Panorama Social 2008, Anexo estadístico, cuadro 21; Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008.

23 The social-economic differentiation in Russia: deciles coefficient 18,0 16,8 16,0 14,0 13,5 13,9 14,0 15,2 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 4,0 2,0 0, Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008, p.186

24 The social-economic differentiation in Russia: Gini coefficient Gini coefficient in Russia 0,430 0,420 0,422 0,410 0,409 0,400 0,390 0,387 0,395 0,397 0,380 0,370 0, Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2008, p. 186

25 The social-economic differentiation in Argentina and Brazil: Gini coefficients Gini coefficients, Argentina and Brazil 0,627 0,640 0,639 0,580 0,501 0,539 0,578 0,520 Ar Br / /07 Source: CEPAL. Panorama Social 2008, p.98

26 Gazprom : Exceeding le Château des Versailles

27 The new yacht of Abramovich

28 The new yacht of Abramovich - length: 170 m - helicopter deck - the system of anti-radiation defence (for the case of nuclear war) - submarines convoy - the total costs of this toy 340 mln.

29 The richest people in Russia Number of billionaires in Russia The net worth of the richest Russians' assets, bln.us$ ,0 700,0 600,0 500,0 715, , ,0 200,0 141, ,0 10 0, billionaires & millionaires, billionaires & millionaires, 2008

30 Ratio of Net Worth of Billionaires to GDP, 2007, by country 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 1,5 2,0 4,0 4,0 4,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 11,5 12,5 21,5 China Jap UK Br Kor Chile Mex US Mal Ind Rus 0,0 Sources: No Growth without Equity: Inequality, Interests, and Competition in Mexico. Ed. by S. Levy and M. Walton. World Bank/ Palgrave, 2009, pp ; Forbes; World Bank data.

31 The ratio of life expectancy index to its average magnitude in the world 1,4000 1,2000 1,0000 0,8000 0,6000 0,4000 0,2000 0, Ar 1,2460 1,1487 1,1719 1,1547 Br 1,0926 1,0024 1,0263 1,0854 Hon 1,1296 1,0647 1,0454 1,0323 Rus 1,1270 0,9976 0,9953 0,9284

32 The ratio of education index to its average magnitude in the world 1,4000 1,2000 1,0000 0,8000 0,6000 0,4000 Ar Br Hon Rus 0,2000 0, Ar 1,2895 1,2420 1,2632 1,2394 Br 1,1133 1,1324 1,1614 1,1634 Hon 0,9543 0,9105 0,9737 1,0481 Rus 1,2686 1,2639 1,2596 1,2267

33 The ratio of HDI to its average magnitude in the world 1,4000 1,2000 1,0000 0,8000 0,6000 0,4000 Ar Br Hon Rus 0,2000 0, Ar 1,2204 1,1706 1,1718 1,1500 Br 1,0662 1,0482 1,0642 1,0801 Hon 0,9416 0,9078 0,9214 0,9550 Rus 1,1448 1,0609 1,0929 1,0800

34 The ratio of HDI in Brazil and Russia to its average magnitude in the world Trends of HDI, Brazil and Russia 1,1600 1,1400 1,1200 1,1000 1,0800 1,0600 1,0400 1,0200 1,0000 0, Br Rus Br 1,0662 1,0482 1,0642 1,0801 Rus 1,1448 1,0609 1,0929 1,0800