Brazilian economy presents a broad introduction to the main characteristics of the country.

Transcrição

1 Program: MPGI Course: Brazilian Economy Professor: Annio Carlos Manfredini da C. Oliveira Term: 2nd semester 2016 Brazilian economy presents a broad introduction the main characteristics of the country. It discusses some long run trends affecting Brazil and introduces structural problems in the context of institutions and economic and political dynamics. Changes in Brazilian social structure as well as issues concerning sustainability, globalization as well as opportunities and obstacles for businesses in Brazil are addressed. Students should be clearly informed tat this is the couse basic structures. Some modifications may take place between this preliminary version and final syllabus. Course Schedule (dd.mm) 1. 05/10 Introduction the course Map of Brazil Comparative Brazil: population : GDP per capita : country size Long run trends: Brazil Personal notes Brazil: some broad characteristics and national agenda Thomas ch. 1 Brazilian Economy: the deterioration The crash of a titan Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi Por que o Brasil precisa de uma nova agenda de reformas? In RM cap. 1 Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi A necessidade de enfrentar os preconceis in RM cap. 2 Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi Completando a transição de modelos de desenvolvimen: o papel do Estado in RM cap. 3 Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi Sem clima para crescer: uma síntese dos argumens in RM cap. 11 Groups for term essay should be informed by the second session (Oct 19) essay theme should be defined. (Please send the information my

2 2. 19/10 by the second session.) For each day of delay in providing the required information the student will have 5 percentage points subtracted from essay mark and presentation (group activities). Brazilian economic dynamics along time (in a nutshell) Baer ch 3 and 4 Coes ch 7 Alencastro Formação do Brasil Delfim Net Meio seculo de economia brasileira: desenvolvimen e restrição externa in EBC cap. 9 Pinheiro, Armando C. por que o Brasil cresce pouco? In RB cap. 2 Cardoso, E. in FE cap 1 Reis, José Guilherme Reis e Andre Urani Uma visão abrangente das transformações recentes no Brasil in RB cap /10 FRIDAY Session Deadline for group and essay theme definition Social fabric: demographics, inequality, ascending middle class, consumption-led growth and its limits Thomas ch.2 Neri, M. New middle class Neri, M. Poverty, inequality and stability Race in Brazil Bolsa familia Education in Brazil Municipal development index in Brazil FIRJAN IFDM 2011 Higher education business World Bank Becoming old in an older Brazil Neri, M. External shocks and the new middle class in Brazil *Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi A nova reforma previdenciaria in RM cap. 6 Pinheiro, Vinicius Carvalho Reforma da previdência uma perspectiva comparada in RB cap. 11 Paes de Barros, Ricardo e Mirela de Carvalho Desafios para a politica social brasileira in RB cap. 18 Ramos, Lauro e Rosane Mendonça Pobreza e desigualdade de renda no Brasil in EBC cap. 14 Ferreira, Sergio Guimarães e Fernando Veloso A escassez de educação in EBC cap. 15 *Schwartzman S. Educação: a nova geração de reformas in RB cap. 20 Ferreira, Sergio Guimarães E Fernando Veloso A reforma da educação in RM cap. 10 Urani, André, Construção de mercados e combate à desigualdade in RB cap. 21 *Cardoso, E. Dois e dois são cinco in FE cap. 7

3 4. 26/10 Sustainability and its challenges (17:45-18:50) Thomas ch. 4 Biofuels in Brazil Deforestation in Brazil Tropical forests Viana, Virgilio M. Sustainable development in practice Environment and its legal protection Presentation Brazilian perspective on environment issues: issues and policies 5. 09/11 18:50hs Trade, productivity, FDI and doing business in Brazil Productivity Thomas ch. 3 Institutions and governance Thomas ch 5 Lula and Mephispheles Gall Bacha Fishlow recent commodity price boom and Latin American Growth: more than new bottles for an old wine? Effective taxes in Brazil EIU Investments in Brazil Note on privatization The gods that failed Brazil s business Belindia Suggested readings: Connecting Brazil the world: a path inclusive growth Lisboa Schor Effects of trade liberalization Edwards Openness productivity and growth: what do we really know? 6. 16/ /11 Presentation Dutch disease in Brazil? Brazilian Financial and capital markets Case study: BTG Pactual Case study: Itaú-Unibanco Presentation: Private equity and capital markets in Brazil Natural rsources and comparative advantage Case Study: EMBRAPA Libra oil field auction Education and competitive advantage Case study: EMBRAER Hausmann In search of the chains that hold Brazil back Suggested readings: Australia: The riches and challenges of commodities

4 Farmland investment note Presentation Middle income trap? 8. 30/11 Pending reforms and the way ahead. Brazil and the BRICs Thomas ch 6 Thomas ch.7 Dreaming with BRICs Goldman Sachs When giants slow down Brazil s enigma FHC on the future of Brazil Protests in Brazil The 50-year snooze Learning the lessons of stagnation Another big decline in GDP Suggested readings: Rodrik Grossman Getting interventions right Presentation: Bullish or bearish on Brazil? 07/12 18:50 Term Paper due Final Exam Data on Brazil Background readings (not required) Abreu, Marcelo de Paiva et al. A ordem do progresso Cem anos de Política republicana Campus 1990 Faus, Boris, Hisria do Brasil Edusp 1994 Fishlow, Albert Starting over: Brazil since 1985 Brookings Institution Press, Faoro, R. Os donos do poder 2 vols. Edira Globo Goldschmidt, Raymonhd N. Brasil Desenvolvimen financeiro sob um século de inflação Harper and Row (1986)

5 Krugman, Paul Pop internationalism (on countries competitiveness) Lisboa, Marcos de B. Menezes Filho, Naércio (orgs) (2001) Microeconomia e Sociedade no Brasil FGV (2001) technical papers covering social problems in Brazil Schleifer, A. and Vishny, Robert M. The Grabbing Hand: Government Pathologies and their Cure. Harvard University Press, 1998 chpts 4 and 9 Skidmore, T.E. (1998) Uma história do Brasil. Paz e Terra (also available in the English original). Required Readings With the possible exception of Thomas - see below - required readings are available from the course reading package (exceptionally electronically from e-class) Bacha, Edmar and Fishlow, Albert. Recent commodity price boom and latin American Growth: more than new bottles for an old wine, 2010 Baer, Werner, The Brazilian Economy Growth and Development. 4 th ed. Praeger, 1995 (there is also a 5 th edition available with 2 additional chapers on Real Plan and Banking privatization ann restructuring) Baer, Werner, A Economia Brasileira, Nobel, Cardoso, Eliana Fábulas Econômicas FT Prentice Hall Pearson Education 2005 FE Coes, Donald V., Macroeconomic Crises, Policies, and Growth in Brazil The World Bank, The Economist, Business and finance in Brazil Nov 2009 Gall, N. Lula and Mephispheles Fernand Braudel Institute Goldman Sachs Dreaming with BRICs: the path 2050 Hausmann, Ricardo In search of the chains that hold Brazil back Denter for International development Harvard University 2008 McKinsey Eliminando as barreiras ao crescimen econômico e à economia formal no Brasil McKinsey The Key an accelerated development path for Brazil Neri, M. New middle class, FGV Neri, M. poverty inequality ans stability, FGV

6 Thomas, Vinod From inside Brazil: development in a land of contrasts World Bank Publications World Bank Doing Business in Brazil Additional readings Bacha, E. e Schwartsman, S. Brasil: a nova agenda social, LTC, 2011 NAS Giambiagi, Fabio, José Guilherme Reis e André Urani (orgs.) Reformas no Brasil: balanço e agenda Nova Fronteira 2004 RB Giambiagi et al (orgs.) Economia Brasileira Contemporânea ( ) Campus Elsevier 2005 EBC Pinheiro, Armando Castelar e Fabio Giambiagi Rompendo o marasmo: a remada do desenvolvimen no Brasil Campus Elsevier 2006 RM Viana, Virgilio M. Sustainable development in practice International Institute for Environment and Development 2010 World Bank Becoming old in an older Brazil: implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery 2011, April Assessment 15% presentation 35% term essay (groups of 5 students; exceptions only if required by arithmetic constraints, given the number of students enrolled in the course) 50% final exam