The role of M&S in Systems Life Cycle

Transcrição

1 The role of M&S in Systems Life Cycle Mário Simões Marques CAPT (PRT N) Superintendência do Material Seminário sobre Modelação e Simulação (M&S) IESM, 18 FEB

2 Summary Introduction Definitions and Concepts M&S Types M&S in Systems Life Cycle

3 Introduction "As the complexity of a system increases, our ability to make precise and significant statements about its behaviour diminishes until a threshold is reached beyond which precision and significance (or relevance) become almost mutually exclusive characteristics M & S (Zadeh, 1973)

4 Introduction Purposes of M&S: Perform experiments for: Decision support Understanding Education Provide experience for: Training (gaining/enhancing competence): Motor skills Decision and communication skills Operational skills Entretainment Imitation (Ören, 2009)

5 Knowledge Pyramid Introduction Understanding Awareness with intentionality Awareness Knowledge in time sensitive context Knowledge Information in context Information Data with semantic label Data Symbols that represent object properties (Ackoff, 1989; Turnitsa & Tolk, 2008; Turban et al., 2007 )

6 Definitions and Concepts System System of Systems Life Cycle Model Modeling Simulation Modeling & Simulation

7 Definitions and Concepts System combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (ISO 15288)

8 Definitions and Concepts System of Systems (SoS) a set or arrangement of systems that results when independent and useful systems are integrated into a larger system that delivers unique capabilities (DoD - Defense Acquisition Guidebook)

9 Definitions and Concepts Life cycle evolution of a system, product, service, project or other human-made entity from conception through retirement (ISO NATO AAP-48Ed1) Life cycle Seminário of co-operative, sobre Modelação joint, multi-national, e Simulação and (M&S) commonly funded Simões programmes Marques (NATO CAPT AAP-20Ed2) (PRT N)

10 Definitions and Concepts Life cycle (Capability development process) Develop possible solutions (NATO ACT Dir 80-7)

11 Definitions and Concepts Life cycle (Capability development process) (NATO ACT Dir 80-7)

12 Definitions and Concepts Life cycle (Research, Development & Engineering) Engineering & Manufact. Development Engineering & Production (US Army RDECOM, 2015) Support to warfighter

13 Definitions and Concepts System Engineering V lifecycle model Build the right system Build the system right (incoseonline.org.uk)

14 Definitions and Concepts SoS Engineering Multi-V lifecycle model (Defense Acquisition University)

15 Definitions and Concepts Model A physical, mathematical, or otherwise logical abstract representation of a system, entity, phenomenon. (DoD P)

16 Definitions and Concepts Modeling Application of a standard, rigorous, structured methodology to create and validate a physical, mathematical, or otherwise logical representation of a system, entity, phenomenon, or process

17 Definitions and Concepts Simulation The implementation of a model over time A method, software framework or system for implementing one or more models in the proper order to determine how key properties of the original may change over time An unobtrusive scientific method of inquiry involving experiments with a model rather than with the portion of reality this model represents (RTO TR-MSG-058)

18 Definitions and Concepts Modeling and Simulation (M&S) The use of models, including emulators, prototypes, simulators, and stimulators, either statically or over time, to develop data as a basis for making managerial or technical decisions. The terms modeling and simulation are often (though imprecisely) used interchangeably. (DoD P)

19 Definitions and Concepts System alterations System under study Simulation Model Simulation Experiment Simulation Analysis Conclusions Real World M&S (adapted from: Maria, 1997)

20 M&S Types live simulation - actual players use genuine systems in a real environment virtual simulation - actual players use simulated systems in a synthetic environment constructive simulation - simulated players use simulated systems in a synthetic environment

21 M&S Types Digital simulation - Simulation or simulators that represent functioning using programming (software) code in a manner that mimics realworld equipment, events, processes, etc Human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation - Simulation and simulators that employ one or more human operators in direct control of the simulation/simulator or in some key support function (e.g., decision making) Hardware-in-the-loop simulation - Simulation and simulators that employ one or more pieces of operational equipment (to include computer hardware) within the simulation/simulator system Software-in-the-loop simulation - Simulation and simulators that employ one or more elements of operational software (computer programming code) within the simulation/simulator system (DoD MSBOK, 2008)

22 M&S Types Based on the model representation: Discrete M&S Continuous M&S Monte Carlo M&S System Dynamics M&S Gaming-based M&S Agent-based M&S AI-based M&S VR-based M&S Based on the model execution: Distributed/Parallel M&S Web-based M&S (Balci, 2004)

23 M&S in System Life Cycle Modeling and Simulation

24 M&S in System Life Cycle Pre-concept identify and document stakeholder requirements; identify areas of risk to the capability delivery. This provides focus for research and industry capability/ capacity to ensure delivery to an acceptable timescale and affordable cost. (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Pre-concept Milestones M1. UOR M2. LTCR M3. Force Goals

25 M&S in System Life Cycle Pre-concept R&D + M&S related with Emergent Technologies or Capability Needs Pre-concept Modeling and Simulation

26 M&S in System Life Cycle Concept refine and broaden the studies, experiments, and engineering models pursued during the Pre-Concept Stage; and develop preliminary system requirements and a feasible design solution. (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Concept Milestones M1. Study Phase Review

27 M&S in System Life Cycle CD & E Seminar Wargame Analytic Wargame Constructive Simulation HITL Simulation Live Simulation Model-exercise-model Synthetic environment Virtual simulation (TTCP GUIDEx) Modeling and Simulation Concept Experiment - An empirical means of establishing cause-and-effect relationships through the manipulation of independent variables and measurement of dependent variables in a controlled environment. Experimentation is enacted by the testing of hypotheses.

28 M&S in System Life Cycle Development develop a system that meets or exceeds the stated requirements and can be produced, tested, evaluated, operated, supported and retired (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Development Milestones M1. Requirements Review M2. Functional Review M3. Design Review M4. Test Readiness Review M5. Configuration Audits M6. Verification Review M7. Validation Review M8. Production Readiness Review

29 M&S in System Life Cycle Development Prediction of behavior/performance of systems Evaluation of alternatives Sensitivity analysis Evaluation of designs Virtual prototyping Testing Planning/ Acquisition Proof of concept SoS Interoperability Integration (Ören, 2011; DoD Instruction ) Modeling Modelling and Simulation Development

30 M&S in System Life Cycle Production manufacture and test the system, and produce related support and enabling systems as needed (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Production Milestones M1. Approved Production Plan M2. Effective contract(s) date(s) M3. Approved Quality Plan M4. Acceptance of SOI M5. Programme MOU(s)

31 M&S in System Life Cycle Production Decision Support Planning Scheduling Production Optimization Supply Chain Optimization Testing Cost estimation Modeling Modelling and Simulation Production

32 M&S in System Life Cycle Service operate the product at the intended operational sites, including modification and upgrades; deliver the required services with continued operational and cost effectiveness. This stage ends when the system is taken out of service. (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Service Milestones M1. In Service Review M2. Planned major maintenance events

33 M&S in System Life Cycle Service Skills Training Decision Making Training (TTP) Combination of Skills & Decision Making Training Team Training Joint & Combined Training (LVC) Synthetic Environments Modeling Modelling and Simulation Service

34 M&S in System Life Cycle Support provide logistics, maintenance, and support services that enable continued operation and sustainable service. The Support Stage is completed with the retirement of the system and termination of support services. (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Service Milestones M1. First unit fielded M2. In Service Review M3. Planned major maint. event(s) M4. First unit retired

35 M&S in System Life Cycle Support Troubleshooting Training System Engineering Decision Making Training Logistic operations optimization Upgrade impact simulation Planning/Scheduling Modeling Modelling and Simulation Service

36 M&S in System Life Cycle Retirement demilitarize and dispose of the system at the end of its useful life and remove related operational and support services. Disposal should be carried out i.a.w. legal and regulatory requirements relating to safety, security & environment. (NATO AAP-20Ed2) Retirement Milestones M1. Disengagement Phase Review

37 M&S in System Life Cycle Retirement Capability impact simulation Environmental, safety impact simulation Live simulation for TTP validation Live simulation for training purpose (CSLC Simulation Support Disposal Phase Guide) Modeling and Simulation Retirement

38 Wrapping up Concept Development Production Service Live. Virtual Constructive

39 The role of M&S in Systems Life Cycle Mário Simões Marques CAPT (PRT N) Superintendência do Material Seminário sobre Modelação e Simulação (M&S) IESM, 18 FEB