MODELO COM FRAÇÃO DE CURA WEIBULL-EXPONENCIADA: UM ENFOQUE BAYESIANO

Transcrição

1 EVALUATION OF FAUNA EDAFHIC IN NATIVE FIELD BY MEANS OF TECHNIQUES OF THE MULTIVARIATE NALYSIS Luiz Eugênio Jacobs, (UFSM), Paulo Luis Guth, (UFSM), bol.com.br; Lorena Vicini, (UFSM), Odorico Antonio Bortoluzzi, (UFSM), Thomé Lovato, (UFSM), The organisms of the soil reflect the operation of the ecosystem. In that work it was verified the influence of the temperature and humidity on them. The multivariate analysis allowed to observe the groups formed by the organisms and to analyze the influence of the temperature and humidity on them.analise Bayseana MODELO COM FRAÇÃO DE CURA WEIBULL-EXPONENCIADA: UM ENFOQUE BAYESIANO Vicente Garibay Cancho, ICMC/USP, Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, This work presents a model with cure fraction using weibull-exponential distribution, whose parameter are estimated by Monte Carlo methods. REGRESSÃO NÃO-LINEAR COM ERRO SKEW-NORMAL: UMA ABORDAGEM BAYESIANA Vicente Garibay Cancho, UFOP, garibay@iceb.ufop.br; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega, ESALQ-USP, edwin@esalq.usp.br In this work we consider the nonlinear models of growth: Logistic, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy, with errors skew-normal distribution. Estimator the parameters we present a bayesiana analysis based on methods of Monte Carlo Markov chains. Moreover we introduce measure L as Bayesian strategy for the discrimination of the considered models. DYNAMICAL SURVIVAL MODELS WITH SPATIAL FRAILTY Leonardo Soares Bastos, ENCE-IBGE, lbastos@ibge.gov.br; Dani Gamerman, DME-IM-UFRJ, dani@im.ufrj.br This work presents the dynamical survival model with spacial fragility, this model joins the methodology of the dynamical survival models with the frailty models. The models are fitted through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The modeling proposal will be used in the attempt to find causes and effect in the duration in the job in the cities of the state of Rio de Janeiro in REDUCTION OF TIME OF CANCER STUDY BY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: CENSORING SIMULATION WITH REAL AND COMPLETE DATA Marcelo Lemos de Medeiros, Prof. Ms. UEMG Divinópolis/MG, marceloparana@funedi.edu.br.; Aladir Horácio dos Santos, Prof. Ms. UNIFOR Formiga/MG, aladir@stratus.com.br; Mário Javier Ferrua Vivanco, Prof. Dr. UFLA Lavras/MG, ferrua@ufla.br; Augusto Ramalho de Morais, Prof. Dr. DEX/UFLA, armorais@ufla.br Cancer is an illness very feared by the population and their studies are limited for the time in the obtaining of results. The survival analysis is used to identify prognostic factors or risk of this disease, as well as to compare treatments of interest with the censured individuals presence. That method allows to the researchers to define the time of duration of the experiment and to treat the censured information. However, a high number of censorships reduces the precision of the results. A study was made with data of 100 individuals death with cancer aiming at to reduce the time spend in those studies without losing the reliability in relation to the use of the complete data (1644 days). These data were censured to 180, 360, 720, 1440 and 1600 days. The Exponential, Weibull and LogNormal models were adjusted with three covariables each and they showed that the reduction could be made in up to 50% of the time, what is less than 10% of censorships equivalent the in the individuals total for those data. Key Words: Duration of the experiment, Censures, Survival Analysis, Cancer.

2 ADJUSTED PROFILE LIKELIHOODS FOR THE WEIBULL SHAPE PARAMETER SILVIA L.P. FERRARI; Departamento de Estatística, IME, Universidade de São Paulo - sferrari@ime.usp.br; MICHEL FERREIRA DA SILVA, Departamento de Estatística, IME, Universidade de São Paulo - michel@ime.usp.br; FRANCISCO CRIBARI NETO, Departamento de Estat 1stica, CCEN, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco - cribari@ufpe.br This paper presents several different adjusted profile likelihoods for the Weibull shape parameter. These adjustments aim at reducing the impact of the nuisance parameter on the likelihood-based inference regarding the parameter of interest. Both point estimation and hypothesis testing are considered. The numerical results suggest that the adjustment obtained by Yang and Xie (2003) outperforms not only the profile likelihood inference but also inference based on competing adjusted profile likelihoods. REPEATED SIGNIFICANCE TESTS WITH MAXIMUM OF WKM STATISTICS Maria Aparecida de Paiva Franco. Ufscar - mapfranco@power.ufscar.br; Estela Maris Pereira Beretta Ufscar - estela@power.ufscar.br; Samantha Bachega Moreno Carolina do Amaral Barboza, Departamento de Estatística. Ufscar São Carlos. Brasil Maximum of Weighted Kaplan Meier statistics; Repeated tests os significance This study obtains asimptotic covariance matrix for m weighted WKM statistics in several analysis (Shen,Cai (2001), Li (1999). Simulations show that the maximum of those statistics may have greater power than a particular weighted statistics for detecting stochastic order alternatives for the hypothesis of equality of two survival functions GENERALIZED PROCRUTES ANALYSIS ON EFFICIENT AGENTS IDENTIFICATION IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Luci Aparecida Nicolau, UFLA, einstein@comp.ufla.br1; Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, ericbferreira@netscape.net2 Artificial Intelligence deals with the development of efficient agents to reproduce human behavior and learn. When exist an agent able to make sensory evaluation of food, one will need a methodology to identify the more efficient. Through data simulation we prove that Generalized Procrustes Analysis is a quite adequate tool for that propose. Key-words: Generalized Procrutes Analysis, multivariate statistics, Artificial Intelligence, agent. ANÁLISE DA VARIABILIDADE DA PRECIPITAÇÃO PLUVIOMÉTRICA DA REGIÃO HIDROGRÁFICA DO URUGUAI ATRAVÉS DE TÉCNICAS MULTIVARIADAS, VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL IN THE URUGUAY BASIN: MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS Eraldo Schunk Silva UEM - essilva@uem.br; Ana Claudia Carfan Mestranda/UEM acarfan@terra.com.br; Jonas Teixeira Nery UNESP/Ourinhos - jonanery@dfi.uem.br The purpose of this paper is to study a rainfall variability in the Uruguay basin. A principal components analysis and multivariate techniques were used to characterize the variability of the precipitation in that region. Series of the rainfall were used to perform cluster multivariate analysis for 50 locations, aiming to classification these precipitation in the Uruguay basin. Key words: Principal Component Analysis (ACP), Cluster Analysis, rainfall, basin. STATISTICS FOR EDUCATION FUNDAMENTAL: A EDUCATION METHODOLOGY Cristina Faria Fidelis Gonçalves, UEL, crisfidelis@dilk.com.br; Elizabeth Strapasson, UEL, estrapas@carpa.ciagri.usp.br This article presents methodology of education, resulted of analysis of documents of the MEC on national curricular parameters - PCN, that education of statistics in basic education points, for practical situations that

3 they take the pupil to develop field research. It was validated with application in the College of Application of the UEL. APLICACÃO DA ESTATÍSTICA BÁSICA NA GESTÃO DA SEGURANÇA PÚBLICA FERNANDO PEREIRA ALVES DE ARAÚJO, Universidade Federal de Lavras, LUCI APARECIDA NICOLAU, Universidade Federal de Lavras, ANTÔNIO CLARET DOS SANTOS, 6a Região Polícia Militar de Minas Gerais, MARCELO SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, The necessity of objective and clear information occupies more and more space in the society. And the knowledge disseminating organizations, as the universities, possess a decisive paper in the attendance to this necessity. In the present paper, we will tell a new boarding of the basic statistics used with public security professionals, basing a simple, suitable to their prole and specic language as for the necessities and statistics applications in the day-a-day work. Searching to reach this objective, it uses multimedia resources and InterNet as knowledge diusion meaning and a iteration facilitated way. PEDOTRANSFER FUNCTION ESTIMATION: RECURRENT NEURAL NETS WITH SPACE- VARYING WEIGHTS AND OTHER MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF SOIL PROPERTIES Daniel Takata Gomes e Emanuel Pimentel Barbosa - Dep. Estatística, IMECC/Unicamp, CP 6065, Campinas, SP - takata@ime.unicamp.br ; emanuel@ime.unicamp.br; Luis Carlos Timm - Fac. Agronomia, Univ. Federal de Pelotas, RS The paper aim is to propose a new regression model for relating soil variables of difficult or complex measurement with other variables easier to measure, in order to predict the first one based on data about the last ones. The measurements are taken along soil lines called transects. The study of these relations (pedotransfer functions) presents the complexity of simultaneous presence of 3 elements: data spatial dependence, soil non-homogeneity and non-linearity of the relationship. The main models usually considered in the literature for such relations (namely, linear statespace and feedforward neural nets) have the limitation of expressing only two of these 3 characteristics of the problem. In order to overcome such limitations, it is proposed here a regression model for pedotransfer mapping based on recurrent neural nets (the feedback helps to better express the spatial dependence), but with weights varying smoothly along the space in order to incorporate the soil non-homogeneity. The algorithm developed for model estimation and prediction is based on a second order non-linear extension of the Kalman filter in Bayesian form. The comparative advantages of the proposed model in relation to the other ones are shown, considering different prediction performance measures for the transect extremes. Keywords: agronomical experiment, non-linear regression, recurrent neural nets, pedotransfer functions, soil properties, transect, Kalman filter extension. PRECIPITATION OF THE COAST AND OF THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE OF PARANÁ, MAPPED BY METHODS GEOESTATISTICS Jacinta L. Zamboti, Depto de Estatística e M. A. /UEL, Londrina /PR, ludovico@uel.br; Vanderli M. Melem, Depto de Estatística e M. A. /UEL,Londrina /PR, vanderli@uel.br The objective of this work was to model the precipitation pluviometric monthly total in the area of the coast and inside the State of Paraná. Beyond the results of space exploratory statistics and especially of the experimental semivariogram, the space continuity of the variable was verified. The spherical model was adjusted. Key words: Semivariogram, Kriging. RCITRUS: A PACKAGE FOR ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATERNS OF CITRUS DISEASES

4 Elias T. Krainski, UFPR, Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., UFPR, Renato B. Bassanezi, FUNDECITRUS, The package Rcitrus is presented providing tools to assess the spatial patern of plant diseases. It is motivated by studies of the \Citrus Sudden Death Disease however the methods are general. Monte Carlo tests for distances and neighbours, Taylor Law and quadrat counts are implemented methods, combined with interfaces to K function, kernel methods and survival analysis. Key-words: Spatial Statistics, Computational Statistics, Citrus Disease. COMPARING METHODS TO CHARACTERIZE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF PLANT DISEASES - A SIMULATION STUDY Renato Ribeiro de Lima, ESALQ/USP e UFV, rrlima@ufv.br; Clarice G. B. Dem etrio, ESALQ/USP, clarice@esalq.usp.br; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro J unior, UFPR, paulojus@est.ufpr.br; Martin S. Ridout, University of Kent, M.S.Ridout@kent.ac.uk The information about the spatial-temporal dynamics is of fundamental importance in epidemiological studies. Several different methods have been used to characterize the spatial aggregation, such as the computation of dispersion index, intraclass correlation, and the use of spatial autocorrelation techniques. Some problems were identified by using data simulations, with different disease incidence, quadrats size, and aggregation degrees, when these measures were considered. SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELLING OF PLANT DISEASE INCIDENCE Renato Ribeiro de Lima, ESALQ/USP e UFV, rrlima@ufv.br; Clarice G. B. Dem etrio, ESALQ/USP, clarice@esalq.usp.br; Martin S. Ridout, University of Kent, M.S.Ridout@kent.ac.uk In the spatial dynamics study, many different methods have been used to characterize the spatial pattern of diseased plants. In this work, an improved technique for fitting spatiotemporal models to the plant disease incidence data by using MCMC methods is proposed. This improved technique is considerably faster than Gibson s methodology, in terms of computational time, without any loss of accura cy. COMPARING XED AND RANDOM QUADRATS IN THE ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATERNS USING OF QUADRAT COUNTS Elias T. Krainski, UFPR, elias@est.ufpr.br; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., UFPR, paulojus@est.ufpr.br; Renato B. Bassanezi, FUNDECITRUS, rbbassanezi@fundecitrus.com.br Quadrat counts are routinelly used as an initial analysis to detect spatial patterns of plant diseases, among other aplications. This work compares two di erent strategies: xed and random quadrats, using data from over 1,000 citrus elds and simulated data; and develop method do determine the ideal number of random quadrats. Key-words: spatial pattern, quadrat counts, random quadrats, plant disease. AVALIAÇÃO DE ENSAIOS EXPERIMENTAIS COM O USO DA ANÁLISE DE ENVOLTÓRIA DE DADOS: UMA APLICAÇÃO A CONSÓRCIOS Eliane Gonçalves Gomes, (eliane.gomes@embrapa.br); Geraldo da Silva e Souza, (geraldo.souza@embrapa.br) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária We use technical efficiency scores as outputs in the analysis of experimental designs. The scores are derived from data envelopment analysis models, generalise the classical methods of analysis, bring optimal economic properties to these processes and easier the interpretation in complex designs by reducing the dimension of the response vector.

5 USO DO ESCALONAMENTO MULTIDIMENSIONAL NÃO MÉTRICO E ANÁLISE DE AGRUPAMENTO NA DETERMINAÇÃO DE PADRÕES DA ESTRUTURA DE COMUNIDADES DE PEIXES DE RIACHOSERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Edwin Moisés Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, edwin@esalq.usp.br; Pedro Gerhard, ESALQ/USP, pgerhard@esalq.usp.br; Luciano Martins Verdade, ESALQ/USP, lmv@esalq.usp We present this communication in order to establish how Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) and Hierarchic Cluster Analysis can be used together on the detection of fish assemblages structure pattern, from 60 samples taken from an agroecosystem in Southeastern Brazil. The analysis showed congruent results, and three groups of samples were detected. The groups were further characterized in terms of average stream attributes and conditions. Most differences between groups were related to terrain aspect and land-use practices. MODELLING AMMI FOR STUDIES OF INTERACTION IN STATISTICAL MODELS OF FIXED EFFECTS Osmir José Lavoranti, Embrapa Florestas, osmir@cnpf.embrapa.br; Antonio Carlos Lins, Acadêmico de estatística, UFPR, lins@metropar.com.br; Helton Damin da Silva, Embrapa Florestas, helton@cnpf.embrapa.br; Carlos Alberto Ferreira Embrapa Florestas, calberto@cnpf.embrapa.br The AMMI analysis for eliminating the noise of the interactions became an important tool for the identification of important relationships in the discernment of the true causes of the interaction. The summary has promoted the popularization of the macro AMMI (free) seeking the development of a methodology of analysis of the interaction effects, in the agricultural experimentation, for which solutions don t still exist computerized appropriate. MODELAGEM DO DIÂMETRO DO TRONCO DO EUCALYPTUS GRANDIS HILL EX MAIDEN EM FUNÇÃO DA ALTURA E DO DIÂMETRO ALTURA DO PEITO Ivanor Müller, UFSM, ivanormuller@smail.ufsm.br; João Eduardo da Silva Pereira, UFSM, jesp@smail.ufsm.br; Angela Pellegrin Ansuj, UFSM, angela@smail.ufsm.br In the present work, the stem shape of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden were studied. Are used the diameters of the breast height and the total height of the forty trees. The resultant polynomial was the fourth degree for the height variable and the second degree for the breast height. A GÊNESE DO DELINEAMENTO EXPERIMENTAL SILVA, J.G.C. (Instituto de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Caixa - Postal 354, Pelotas, RS, Brazil; jgcs@ufpel.edu.br) The genesis of the experimental design. The experimental designs are usually presented as a set of prescriptions among them one should be chosen for each particular experiment. This approach leads to the understanding that one is limited to the use of the traditional experimental designs presented in the texts. A rational procedure for the generation of the appropriate experimental designs for each particular experiment is presented. COMPARISON OF PREDITORS FOR DISCRETE RESPONSES UNDER TWO-STAGE SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATIONS Silvina San Martino, FCA, Universidad Nac. de Mar del Plata, Argentina, silvina@ime.usp.br; Julio da Motta Singer, IME, Universidade de SÜao Paulo, Brasil, jmsinger@ime.usp.br; Edward J. Stanek III, SPH, University of Masachusetts, USA, stanek@scholph.umass.edu We compare the performance of predictors obtained under generalized linear mixed model, Scott and Smith model and random permutation model. The last predictors are usually the best when variances are known and when they are unknown, their performance improves as the number of groups, intra-class correlation and sampling fractions increase.

6 Key words: clustered finite population; optimal prediction; random permutation. SPACE DISTRIBUTION AND SAMPLE SIZE FOR THE TAN-MITE IN MATE ORCHARDS Was determined the type of distribution of the tan-mite and the sample size in mate orchard. The study it was lead in Chapecó, SC. During 2004 collected 18 leves of 30 plants fortnightly. The distribution revealed aggregate for the mite, leading the sample of approximately 60 leves. Key-words: Mite sampling, Ilex paraguariensis, Dichopelmus notus. COMPARISON OF TWO SAMPLING AND DIFFERENT MANAGEMENTS OF SOIL. CAMILA AFONSO BERNADES (Acadêmica do curso de Medicina Veterinária FAMEV UFU Bolsista PIBIC/CNPq; MARCELO TAVARES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, mtavares@ufu.br ); EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, ecg@ufu.br) The aim of this work was verified the behavior of the arithmetic average, geometric average and harmonic average under conditions the tillage, no tillage and degraded area in two sampling in the various sample size. It was verified that very small samples, in general, are not efficient for estimate of the averages. Words key: Resistance of the soil the penetration, soil water content, sampling. SAMPLING FREQUENCY FOR ADJUSTMENT OF CURVES OF GROWTH OF LETTUCE PLANTS. Paula Machado dos Santos, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria,RS, paulagron@hotmail.com; Sidinei José Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria RS, sjlopes@pop.com.br; Lindolfo Storck, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria RS, storck@ccr.ufsm.br; Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria RS, adlucio@smail.ufsm.br; Carine Cocco, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria RS, carine-c@ibest.com.br The present work has for objective to determine the frequency of sampling of lettuce plants for the adjustment of growth curves. The need of different intervals was verified among samplings for different variables and periods of the cycle of the plant. PROPRIEDADES DO ESTIMADOR DO COEFICIENTE DE ENDOGAMIA DE UMA POPULAÇÃO DIPLÓIDE AVALIADAS PELA TÉCNICA BOOTSTRAP Paulo Rafael Lemos Amaral - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, przootec@yahoo.com.br; Joel Augusto Muniz - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, joamuniz@yahoo.com.br; Daniel Furtado Ferreira - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, danielff@ufla.br; Marcelo Angelo Cirillo - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, marcelocirillo@hotmail.com - Bolsista FAPEMIG The variance and bias of imbreeding coefficient estimator in diploid populations with two alleles was calculated by resampling bootstrap method. The results showed the reduction in the estimator variance for values of imbreeding coefficient and alleles frequency around 0.3 and 0.7. COMPARAÇÃO DA CAPACIDADE PREDITIVA DA REGRESSÃO LOGÍSTICA VIA MÉTODO CLÁSSICO E BAYESIANO Osmar Jesus Macedo, UFMS/ESALQ-USP, osmar@esalq.usp.br; Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ-USP, raleandr@esalq.usp.br; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega,ESALQ-USP, edwin@esalq.usp.br In this work we present a study to compare the predictive capacity in logistic regression. The estimators gotten for the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian had been used for obtain the parameters of the model and as prediction tools, being its performance measured from the classification of the individuals. The presented methodology was applied to an experimental data set.

7 PRESENÇA DE COVARIÁVEIS NA PROBABILIDADE DE CAPTURA DO MÉTODO DE CAPTURA-RECAPTURA MÚLTIPLA EM POPULAÇÃO FECHADA Marcelo de Paula, UFSCar, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz, UFSCar, José Galvão Leite, UFSCar, We consider the problem of the estimation of the size of a closed animal population, using the method of multiple capture-recapture with bayesian methods for the estimation of the population size and the probabilities of capture, and we consider to rewrite such probability as a function of covariates, becoming the model considered for Castledine (1981) more realistic. ESTIMAÇÃO DO TAMANHO POPULACIONAL DE CETÁCEOS VIA MÉTODO BAYESIANO EMPÍRICO PARA DADOS DE FOTO-IDENTIFICAÇÃO Jacqueline Domingues Tibúrcio, Departamento de Estatística-UFMG, tiburcio@ufmg.br.; Cibele Queiroz da Silva, Ph.D., Departamento de Estatística-UFMG, cibeleqs@est.ufmg.br Sugerimos um método Bayesiano empírico para estimar o tamanho populacional N de cetáceos, considerando (1) dados provenientes de experimento de captura-recaptura envolvendo foto-identificação (2) probabilidades de captura variando apenas quanto ao tempo, (3) parte da população não capturável. Inferências foram obtidas utilizando os métodos de Metropolis-Hastings e amostrador de Gibbs. COMPARAÇÃO DAS ESTIMATIVAS BAYESIANAS DE MEDIDAS DE DESEMPENHO DE TESTES DE DIAGNÓSTICO NA PRESENÇA DE COVARIÁVEIS E ERRO DE CLASSIFICAÇÃO Eloisa Moralles do Pinho, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, eloisamoralles@ig.com.br (aluna de mestrado); Jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, achcar@power.ufscar.br (orientador) We present a Bayesian approach introduced by Joseph et al. (1995) for the prevalence of diseases, sensitivity and speci.city in diagnostic tests in the presence of misclassi.cations, where we can have false positives or false negatives. For the Bayesian method we introduced latent variables in the presence of covariates. ESTIMAÇÃO BAYESIANA DA TAXA DE SOBREVIVÊNCIA DE MAMÍFEROS Mayra Alves Stradioto, Departamento de Estatística-UFMG - mstradi@est.ufmg.br; Cibele Queiroz da Silva, Ph.D., Departamento de Estatística - UFMG, cibeleqs@est.ufmg.br Este trabalho trata da estimação Bayesiana de taxas de sobrevivência de mamíferos para dados de capturarecaptura em população aberta. Foram implementados os modelos propostos por Zeh et al. (20020), os quais foram usados na estimação de parâmetros para dados reais das baleias bowhead e do gambá cuica. A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA ANALYSIS GOTTEN BY REPLACEMENT SAMPLING Davi Casale Aragon, DMS/FAEPA/FMRP/USP, dcaragon@terra.com.br; Adriana de Fátima Lourençon, DMS/FAEPA/FMRP/USP, adlourencon@yahoo.com.br; Eliza Omai, IME/USP, elizaomai@hotmail.com; Jorge Alberto Achcar, DMS/FMRP/USP, achcar@fmrp.usp.br; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/FMRP/USP, edson@fmrp.usp.br This work presents a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for longitudinal medical data gotten by replacement sampling. The correlation among the repeated individuals is captured by inclusion of a random effect assumed to have a normal distribution. Posterior summaries for the quantities of interest were obtained using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods. Key words: Bayesian analysis, longitudinal data, replacement sampling.

8 OCCURRENCE OF MENSTRUATION IN PATIENTS WITH POLYCYSTIC OVARY SYNDROME AFTER USE OF ACARBOSE Adriana de Fátima Lourençon, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, Eliza Omai, IME/ USP, Jorge Alberto Achcar, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, Gleici Castro Perdoná, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, Is this study, we introduce a Bayesian Analysis for Logistic Regression Models for Correlated Binary Data. A random effect is introduced in the model to capture the possible correlation among the repeated measures for each individual. We considered normal and mixture of normal distribution for the random effect. Keywords: correlated binary data, logistic regression, Bayesian Analysis. ADJUSTMENT AND COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH AUTORREGRECIVE ERRORS, TO DATA OF POULTRY EGG PRODUCTION: AN BAYESIAN ILUSTRACTION Denismar Alves Nogueira, UFLA, denisnog@yahoo.com.br; Thelma Safadi, UFLA, safadi@ufla.br; Janser Moura Pereira, UFLA, jansermp@yahoo.com.br; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, UFLA, danielff@ufla.br Recent studies use the inference Bayesian in the most several areas. This work has for objective to illustrate a procedure Bayesian to adjust the egg production curve, using three no-lineal models, being these of Modified Wood, Wood and McMillan, considering residues with characteristic autoregressive of order 1. The results were satisfactory and Modified Wood s model presented the best adjustment for th e Bayes Factor, AIC and BIC. Words Key: Egg production curves, correlated error, No-lineal Model. COMPARISON OF NONLINEAR MODELS TO PREDICT THE NITROGEN MINERALIZED IN LATOSOL: AN BAYESIAN ILLUSTRATION Janser Moura Pereira, UFLA, jansermp@yahoo.com.br; Joel Augusto Muniz, UFLA, joamuniz@ufla.br; Denismar Alves Nogueira, UFLA, denisnog@yahoo.com.br; Thelma Safadi, UFLA, safadi@ufla.br This work was carried to compare two nonlinear models, used to predict nitrogen mineralization of the organic nitrogen in soils. The comparison of the models was made through Bayes Factor, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The estimation of the parameters was made through a routine implemented on R and for the sampling procedure it was used Gibbs Sampling and the Metropoles Hastings. Key words: mieralization, organic nitrogen, Bayes Factor. INFLUENCE OF AGE AT PARTURITION IN NELORE HEIFFERS GROWTH: A BAYESIAN APPROACH Natascha A. M. da Silva - UFLA, bolsista PIBIC/CNPq do 10o período de zootecnia - nataschaalmeida@yahoo.com.br; Joel Augusto Muniz - UFLA, Prof. do departamento de Ciências Exatas - joamuniz@ufla.br; Luiz Henrique de Aquino - UFLA, Prof. Aposentado do departamento de Ciências Exatas - lhaquino@ufla.br; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva - UFLA, Prof. Substituto do departamento de Ciências - Exatas- fabyanobr@yahoo.com.br; Tarcisio de Moraes Gonçalves - UFLA, Prof. do departamento de Zootecniatarcisio@ufla.br

9 The Gompertz model was fitted to weight-age data of Nelore cattle by Bayesian methodology. The marginal posterior distributions were obtained using the Gibbs Sampler (a, R, b and s 2 e ) and the Metropolis- Hastings algorithm ( b and k). The results did not show the effect of age at parturition on growth. APLICAÇÕES DE MÉTODOS BAYESIANOS EM META-ANÁLISE Carla Fernanda Pissini, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, cpissini@hotmail.com; Jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, jachcar@power.ufscar.br We present the use of Bayesianos methods in meta-analysis, using hierarchic models, that allow to combine some independent studies on one determined treatment. As illustration, we present two medical data sets, one on incidence of cancer in the endometrium and another one on use of aspirin for patients after a cardiac attack. Word-key: Meta-analysis, mixture of normal distributions, variable latent and classic and Bayesiana analysis. HIGHEST POSTERIOR DENSITY (HPD) INTERVAL OF THE RETURN PERIOD IN THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL STUDY BY GEV DISTRIBUTION LUIZ ALBERTO BEIJO DEX - UFLA.. luizbeijo@yahoo.com.br; JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ DEX - UFLA. joamuniz@ufla.com; MÁRIO JAVIER FERRUA VIVANCO DEX - UFLA. ferrua@ufla.br Bayesian methodology was applied to determine, for the rainier months at region Jaboticabal (SP), the High Power Density (HPD) interval of the maximum rainfall for different return periods, using the generalized extreme values (GEV) distribution. The upper interval HPD provide values that are more appropriate to plan hydraulic works. Key-words: Bayesian methodology, HPD interval, maximum rainfall. POSTERIOR MEAN, MEDIAN AND MODE IN BAYESIAN ESTIMATION Adhemar Sanches, UNESP - Campus de Jaboticabal, adhesan@fcav.unesp.br; José Miguel Cotes- Torres, Universidade Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellín - jmcotes@unalmed.edu.com Bayesian estimation uses, in general, the posterior mean as the parameter estimate. According to the Decision Theory, this is the case when we are using quadratic loss because it minimizes the Bayes risk. For other loss functions we get different estimates, e.g., the median when we use the absolute loss function. In this work, with 1000 simulated multi environment trials, we use the mean squared error as a criterion to choose among posterior mean, median and mode, as estimates of the parameters of interest. Keywords: Bayesian estimation, posterior mean, posterior median, posterior mode. INTRODUCTION OF A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR BINARY DATA TO ESTIMATE THE SENSIBILITY AND SPECIFICITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS Davi Casale Aragon, DMS/FAEPA/ FMRP/USP, dcaragon@terra.com.br; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/FMRP/USP, edson@fmrp.usp.br; Lina Casale Aragon-Alegro, FCF/USP, lcalegro@yahoo.com.br; Maria Teresa Destro, FCF/USP, mtdestro@usp.br This work introduces a Bayesian model for binary data, like logit, probit and complementar log log, to estimate the sensibility and specificity of diagnostic tests. A data set containing information that some products (ham, meat and sausage) were infected with Listeria monocytogenes was used in the analysis. The results were compared with that one obtained by the maximum likelihood method. Key words: Bayesian methods, sensibility, specificity, binary data. AVALIACÃO DO DESEMPENHO PREDITIVO DA PONDERACÃO BAYESIANA DE MODELOS EM REGRESSÃO LINEAR CLÁSSICA

10 HÉlio Rubens de Carvalho Nunes, ESALQ/USP, Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ/USP, Edwin Moisés Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, Many authors a±rm that approaches of selection models ignores model uncertainty. In this work, some of those approaches were evaluated in terms of predictive performance in situations of absence and presence of multicollinearity, and his performances were compared with the performance of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF THE MILK PRODUCING FARMS: A APPROACHING BAYESIAN Juliana Garcia Cespedes, ESALQ - USP, jgcesped@esalq.usp.br; Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ - USP, raleandr@esalq.usp.br The objective of this paper is to apply methodology of stochastic frontiers models with error Student-t suggested by Fonseca et al. (2004) to analyze the efficiency of 164 milk producing farms using of the approaching Bayesian. Key-words: Production frontiers, milk production, regress with error Normal,regress with error Student-t. ON BAYES SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF THE POISSON PARAMETER S Carla Regina Guimarães Brighenti - Divisão de Ensino, Escola Preparatória de Cadetes do AR, EPCAR; abelha@ufla.br - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA; Lucas Monteiro Chaves - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA The work presents a method for estimate the parameter of the Poisson process using the Bayesian sequential one step look-ahead procedure. The stopping time was defined with the first n were [(b + n + 1)c] is greater for the variance a posteriori. By simulation the efficiency was comproved. Key-words: look-ahead procedure; stopping time; Gamma INTERVALOS DE CONFIANÇA PARA A FUNÇÃO DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO NA PRESENÇA DE CENSURA INTERVALAR, CASO 1 Erik Rodarte Lopes, UFMG, erikpuiu@yahoo.com; Antonio Eduardo Gomes, UFMG, aegomes@est.ufmg.br Neste trabalho estudamos a construção de intervalos de confiança para a função de distribuição do tempo de falha na presençaa de censura intervalar, caso 1. Utilizamos o ENPMV (estimador não paramétrico de máxima verossimilhançaa) e sua distribuição assintótica, ENPMV suavizado, bootstrap, e imputação múltipla com estimador de Kaplan-Meier MODELO DE COX PARA DADOS COM CENSURA INTERVALAR Lívia Menezes da Pax, UFMG, liviapaz@ig.com.br; Antonio Eduardo Gomes, UFMG, aegomes@est.ufmg.br Neste trabalho estudamos métodos para ajuste do modelo de Cox com dados com censura intervalar, baseados na imputação m ultipla via dois algoritmos descritos em Pan (2000). Seu desempenho foi examinado num estudo de simulação. Adotamos também uma suavização da curva de sobrevivência base estimada na metodologia proposto por Pan(2000). QUALIDADE DE SEMENTES DE SOJA. UM ESTUDO VIA QUANTIDADES ALEATÓRIAS Rafaela Cardoso ALVES, Depto de Matemática, UFU, rafaelacardosoalves@yahoo.com.br An appropriate methodology is needed in the study the number of failure predicton in the time. This study can be applied to evaluate the seed lots unviability in stowage period. The aim of this work is to present an adequate in methodology to estimate the range of unviable seed in the time future interval The coverage probability evaluated censured the efficiency of methodology in the prediction of future failure interval.

11 COMPARISONS OF SOME APPROXIMATE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS PROCEDURES FOR THE PARAMETERS OF A POLY-LOG-LOGISTIC MODEL IN THE PRESENCE OF CENSORED DATA Cleber Giugioli Carrasco, Universidade Estadual de Goiás UEG, clebercarrasco@hotmail.com; Gleici da Silva Castro Perdoná, ICMC/Universidade de São Paulo USP, pgleici@fmrp.usp.br; Francisco Louzada- Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos UFSCar, dfln@power.ufscar.br In the present paper we compare different procedures to compute confidence intervals for the poly-loglogistic model parameters considering two competitive risks in presence of random censuring. Our simulation study focus on the study of the coverage probabilities and the amplitudes of theses different confidence intervals. We also discuss the effect of the presence of censoring and of influential points on the data. The proposed methodology is illustrated on two real datasets. UM MODELO DE RISCOS COMPETITIVOS BASEADO NO MODELO WEIBULL BIVARIADO DE RYU EDUARDO YOSHIO NAKANO, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade de Brasília-UnB - nakano@unb.br; JOSEMAR RODRIGUES, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de São Carlos-UFSCar - vjosemar@power.ufscar.br In the present study, the Ryu s bivariate model (Ryu, 1993) was extended to allow the shock s to change with time by modifying its suppositions. A competing risks model was formulated from this model, and using simulated data and MCMC algorithm with latent variables its parameters were estimated via bayesian procedures. ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY APPLIED TO THE FORECAST OF REPLACED WHEELS IN A RAILROAD TRANSPORT COMPANY Renaut Bortolini, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, renaut@universiabrasil.net; José Ivo Ribeiro Júnior, Dep. de Informática (Setor de Estatística) da UFV, jivo@dpi.ufv.br; Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, ronaldof@vicosa.ufv.br; Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática da UFV, emanuelfms@gmail.com; Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Dep. de Informática da UFV, mauro@ufl.edu In this work, reliability analysis was used to foresee expenses on the number of wagon wheels replaced by a railroad company in The function of reliability foreseen that in December of 2005,10.2% of wheels did need to be replaced, what may cause an annual expense of U$ 12, Key-words: Reliability, forecast, estimate of the expenses. ESTIMADORES NÃO-PARAMÉTRICOS: UMA REVISÃO. Fabíola Moraes, Universidade Federal de São Carlos,fabimoraessp@yahoo.com.br - Benedito Galvão Benze, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, benze@power.ufscar.br; Francisco Louzada-Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, d.n@power.ufscar.br In this work we present di erent methodos for estimating the survival or hazard functions. Also, we discuss some problems, waich lead to no real estimates. Word-key: censured data, functions of survival, methods bayesians, functions of risk, fragility. CONTROLE DE QUALIDADE VIA DADOS DE SOBREVIVÊNCIA ACELERADOS. Sabrina Luzia Caetano, Universidade Federal de São; Carlos,brinacaetano@ig.com.br; Dr. Francisco Louzada-Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, d.n@power.ufscar.br The main objective of this paper is to propose a quality control procedure based on an exponential model with a power law stress relationship.

12 THE CENSORING EFFECT IN THE PARAMETERS ESTIMATION ON THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION Juliana Betini Fachini Estatística FCT/UNESP; Mario Hissamitsu Tarumoto DMEC FCT/UNESP In this introductory work, was studied the effect of the censoring in the parameters estimation, where the Weibull distribution is assumed. The parametric Bootstrap methods was considered in this study. The Weibull sample with random censoring was generated and the maximum likelihood estimated of the parameters was considered in each sample. We observed that, when the censoring proportion is large, the estimation biased is large too and the distribution s of the parameters was assimetric. Key words: censoring, Bootstrap, failure time. ESTIMANDO A EVASÃO DE CLIENTES EM INTITUIÇÕES FINANCEIRAS Flávio Henrique de Souza Gonçalves, Banco do Brasil S. A., flaviogoncalves@bb.com.br.; Isabella Peres da Rocha e Silva Fregonasse, Banco do Brasil, isabellaf@bb.com.br; Lílian Yuri Maeda Uezu, Banco do Brasil S.A., liliany@bb.com.br In this paper, we use two methods, multiple logistic regression and survival analysis to provide a powerfull tool to predict customer churn and keep custumer longer. The logistic method is important to predict wich customer are at high risk of churn, however, survival analysis will identify when these customers will churn. The findings of this study will be helpful to optimize marketing resourses, allowing the concentration of efforts in a small number of customer to reduce the churn. Palavras chave: Regressão logística, Análise de Sobrevivência, evasão, Modelo de Cox. BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE MODE OF THE LOG-LOGISTIC HAZARD FUNCTION Josmar Mazucheli, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring a, jmazucheli@uem.br; Em 1lio A. C. Barros, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring a, emilioaugusto@pop.com.br;jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de SÜao Carlos, jorge@icmc.sc.usp.br In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the mode of the hazard function in situations of lifetime data modelling with unimodal hazard functions. For lifetime distributions where the mode of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. >From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can be obtained. However, these results might not be very accurate for small sample sizes and/or large proportion of censored observations. Considering the loglogistic distribution for the lifetime data with shape parameter > 1, we present and compare the accuracy of asymptotical confidence intervals with two confidence intervals based on bootstrap simulation. The alternative methodology of confidence intervals for the mode of the log-logistic hazard function are illustrated in three numerical examples. Key-Words: Survival analysis, log-logistic distribution, hazard function, bootstrap confidence intervals. APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO DE COX E USO DO MÉTODO DE BOOSTRAP PARA ESTIMAÇÃO DA DOSE ADEQUADA DE FK NO SANGUE EM PACIENTES TRANSPLANTADOS DE FÍGADO Bruna de Castro Dias Bicalho, UFMG, brunabicalho@terra.com.br; Eduardo Henrique De Oliveira, UFMG, eduardohenrique@ufmg.br; Enrico Antônio Colosimo, UFMG, enricoc@est.ufmg.br A determinação da dose de Tacrolimus (FK) administrada a pacientes transplantados de fígado é extremamente imprecisa, e freqüentemente atinge níveis inadequados no sangue ocasionando efeitos colaterais. Neste estudo ajustamos o Modelo de Cox para avaliar as variáveis que estão associadas com o tempo de sobrevida destes indivíduos. Reescrevendo a função de sobrevivência em termos da dose, que é uma covariável significativa para o modelo, e pelo método Bootstrap obtemos estimativas pontuais e intervalares respectivamente, da dose adequada. Estabelecemos inicialmente um tempo de sobrevivência igual a 0,5.

13 Palavras chave: Função de sobrevivência, Modelo de Cox, Bootstrap, Tacrolimus. ANÁLISE MULTIVARIADA INTER-RELAÇÃO DE CRESCIMENTO DE ÓRGÃOS INTERNOS EM FRANGOS DE CORTE ATRAVÉS DE ANÁLISE DE TRILHA (PATH ANALYSIS) Kleber Régis Santoro, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco UNIVASF, Carlos Bôa-Viagem Rabello, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco UFRPE, Ronaldo Vasconcelos Farias Filho, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco UFRPE, The growth of internal organs and viscera has a relationship that must be not ignored. This study could be more detailed if any multivariate technique may be applied. This work use principal components and path analysis to verify relationships. The developed model had sufficient precision to be applied in case. ROBUSTNESS OF ASYMPTOTIC AND BOOTSTRAP TESTS FOR MULTIVARIATE HOMOGENEITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES The work emphasizes the importance of homogeneity covariance matrices tests of multivariate populations. Were applying four tests using simulation in normal and non normal populations evaluating the type I error rates and power. The tests proposed were successful and the bootstrap tests were superiors to the asymptotic test. Key words: Simulation; Samiuddin s test; Bayesian Inference PREDIÇÃO DE GANHOS PELA SELEÇÃO BASEADA EM ESCORES FATORIAIS EM CARACTERES AVALIADOS EM COFFEA CANEPHORA VAR. CONILON. Paulo Roberto Cecon, UFV, cecon@dpi.ufv.br; Adésio Ferreira, UFV, cecon@dpi.ufv.br; Geraldo de Amaral Gravina, UFV, gravina@dpi.ufv.br; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, UFV, peternelli@dpi.ufv.br; Romário Gava Ferras, INCAPER-ES, cecon@dpi.ufv.br; Cosme Damião Cruz, UFV, cdcruz@ufv.br This work aimed to study the selection based on scores obtained by factor analysis in 40 Coffea canephora var. conilon genotypes fron INCAPER, of four crops, at Marilândia ES, in arandomized block design with four replicates. Fouteen characteristics were analysed. The factor analysis technique was considered adequate for this study. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF NATIVE AND FOREST SPECIES SEEDS OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, PPG Engenharia Florestal CCR UFSM, fabfortes@yahoo.com.br; Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio, Depto Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, adlucio@ccr.ufsm.br; Sidinei José Lopes, Depto Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, sjlopes@ccr.ufsm.br; Lindolfo Storck, Depto Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, storck@ccr.ufsm.br; Eduardo Righi dos Reis, PPG Engenharia Florestal CCR UFSM; Alexandre Francisco Binotto, PPG Engenharia Florestal CCR UFS; Fernanda de Oliveira, Graduação em Engenharia Florestal CCR UFSM, ferflorestal@mail.ufsm.br The objectives of accomplishing a of the analyses of seeds with native species, and grouping the most similar ones, by the hierarchical complete method, used the technique of main components for the reduction of the number of data, with in the third and fourth main components explained 80% the variation. Key words: Cluster analysis, distance euclidian, analysis principal components. SEEDS ANALYSES OF THE EXOTIC FOREST SPECIES: APPROACH MULTIVARIATE Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio, Depto Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, adlucio@ccr.ufsm.br; Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, PPG Engenharia Florestal CCR UFSM, fabfortes@yahoo.com.br; Sidinei José Lopes, Depto

14 Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, Lindolfo Storck, Depto Fitotecnia CCR UFSM, Alberto Cargnelutti Filho, FEPAGRO RS, Bruna da Silveira Denardin, PPG Engenharia Florestal CCR - UFSM The objectives of accomplishing a of the analyses of seeds with exotic species, and grouping the most similar ones, by the hierarchical complete method, used the technique of main components for the reduction of the number of data, with in the third and fourth main components explained 80% the variation. Key words: Cluster analysis, analysis principal components, storage. CORRESPONDENCY ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE ADVERTISING DIRECTIONED TO THE THIRD SECTORERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Rosana Borges Zaccaria, UNIMEP, rbzaccaria@unimep.br; Arlei Coldebella, CNPSA/EMBRAPA, arlei@cnpsa.embrapa.br; Maria Izalina Ferreira Alves, UNIMEP, mifalves@unimep.br; Cristiane Mariana R. Afonso, UNIMEP, cmrsilva@unimep.br To evaluate the 121 advertising directioned to the third sector, from the yearbook of the Creation Club of São Paulo, during the period from 1997 to 2003, it was organized a protocol with 18 questions considered active and 8 questions illustrative, analyzed in according to the Multiple Correspondence Analysis Model. GENERALIZED PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS ON SOUTH MINAS CACHAÇA COMPARISION Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, ericbferreira@netscape.net 1; Luciana do Nascimento Lanchote, UFLA, lu_lanchote@yahoo.com.br2; ABSTRACT: Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) was used to compare two cachaça (a new and an old). A seven untrained people panel was used to sensory evaluate both. It was found that the new one is characterized by its high alcohol level. 1 Técnico em laticínios, Engenherio Agrônomo, Mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística. 2 Graduanda em Administração. ROBUSTNESS OF ASYMPTOTIC AND BOOTSTRAP TESTS FOR MULTIVARIATE HOMOGENEITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES. Roberta Bessa Veloso Silva - Universidade Federal de Lavras UFLA bessa@ufla.br; Daniel Furtado Ferreira - Universidade Federal de Lavras UFLA danielff@ufla.br; Denismar Alves Nogueira Universidade Federal de Lavras UFLA denisnog@yahoo.com.br The work emphasizes the importance of homogeneity covariance matrices tests of multivariate populations. Were applying four tests using simulation in normal and non normal populations evaluating the type I error rates and power. The tests proposed were successful and the bootstrap tests were superiors to the asymptotic test. Key words: Simulation; Samiuddin s test; Bayesian Inference ANÁLISE VIA CART DOS DADOS DO VESTIBULAR 2004 DA UFMG Junio Gonçalves Rodrigues, UFMG, juniogr@yahoo.com; Ludmila Vieira Lage, UFMG, arwen@yahoo.com; Talita Fernanda Sousa Dias, UFMG, talitadias@gmail.com; Thiago Rezende dos Santos, UFMG, thiagoresendeh@yahoo.com; Glaura C. Franco, UFMG, glaura@est.ufmg.br; Rosangela H. Loschi, UFMG, loschi@est.ufmg.br The aim of study is to evaluate the most significant variables in relation to the approval of an applicant for the entrance examination at UFMG. This work focus in the analysis of the variables of the socioeconomic questionnaire and its relation with the response variable Was the applicant approved? PROFILE OF THE INEQUALITY AMONG ENGAGED PEOPLE IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE: A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

15 Idemauro Antonio Rodrigues Lara ESALQ/USP e UNIMEP idemauro@esalq.usp.br; Angela Maria Cassavia Jorge Corrêa UNIMEP ajcorrea@unimep.br; Carlos Tadeu Santos Dias ESALQ/USP ctsdias@carpa.ciagri.usp.br This study aims to analyze the relative matter of some economics and socio-demographics explanatory variable for the inequality among engaged people in the agricultural sector of Brazil in The study was developed from available information (PNAD 2002) with emphasis in the studies of the States of the Federation. The quarrel of the results will come from the application of methods of the multivariate analysis, through it we make an explanatory analysis with aid Biplots graphs as methodology described for Gabriel( 1971). Also aiming the reduction of the variable explanatory number, and having in view the multicollinearity presence, the technique of analysis of Principal Components is used. Key word: agricultural worker, PNAD, multivariate analysis, Biplot MODELLING FISH SPECIES OCCURRENCE IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN-MS YZEL RONDON SÚAREZ - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. yzel@uems.br ; THIAGO R. A. FELIPE - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. thiagofelipe@uems.br ; SABRINA B. VALÉRIO - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. sabrinabigatao@hotmail.com; LIDIANI Q. L. XIMENES - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. lqueli@hotmail.com; KARINA K. TONDATO - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. ktondato@hotmail.com The occurrence of 14 fish species in headwater streams of Paraná River basin (Brazil, MS) was quantified using a Logistic Regression. The hydrologic characteristics were the main determinant factors of species occurrence. Species with wide distribution on hydrographic basin they present your occurrence more difficult to modeling. Financial support: FUNDECT (Process nº ) and UEMS DETERMINANT FACTORS OF FISH SPECIES DIVERSITY IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF PARAGUAI RIVER BASIN-MS YZEL RONDON SÚAREZ - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. yzel@uems.br; SABRINA B. VALÉRIO - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. sabrinabigatao@hotmail.com ; KARINA K. TONDATO - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. ktondato@hotmail.com ; LIDIANI Q. L. XIMENES - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. lqueli@hotmail.com; THIAGO R. A. FELIPE - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. thiagofelipe@uems.br Erro! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The variation in fish species diversity in 10 headwater streams in the Paraguai river basin was quantified through Analysis of Co-variance. We verified differentiation in species diversity between the analyzed subbasins. The altitude and stream width they present significant influence on species richness and evenness. Financial support: FUNDECT (Process nº ) and UEMS A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE PUBLIC SECURITY IN THE SOUTH REGION OF MINAS GERAIS Josiane Magalhães Teixeira, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), josianemt@uol.com.br; Thelma Sáfadi, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), safadi@ufla.br; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), danielff@ufla.br This work is part of a more including study which intends to analyze time series referring the criminal incidence in some South Minas cities. It was applied factor analisys for a fifitty variables grup in 8 cities, with the objective to analyze and understand the existing relationship between them. Key words : factor analysis, public security

16 A SENSORIAL INTERPRETATION OF GENERALIZED PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS IN R Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, ericbferreira@netscape.net1; 1 Técnico em Laticínios, Engenheiro Agrônomo, mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística, bolsista CAPES. Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) is a multivariate exploratory analysis largely applied to sensory data. Usually, this analysis is performed on expensive softwares. R is a free statistical software that has a package with this function implemented and it was sensory interpreted. Key-words: Generalized Procrustes Analysis, R, multivariate statistics. GENERALIZES PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS VIA R ON GORGONZOLA Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, ericbferreira@netscape.net1; Marcelo Silva de Oliveira, UFLA, marcelso@ufla.br2; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, ULFA, danielff@ufla.br; Fernando Antônio Resplande Magalhães, EPAMIG, fernando.magalhães@epamig.br. 1 Técnico em laticínios, Engenheiro Agrônomo, Mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística. 2 Professor Adjunto do Departamento de Ciências Exatas.Erro! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) was applied to gorgonzola cheese data, ANOVAs detected significative differences between technologies, ages and interactions. GPA provided the consensus configuration and showed relative differences among the cheeses and the both technologies sensory evolution. The assessors considered higher milk fat content technology the best. Key-words: Generalized Procrustes Analysis, Sensorial Analysis, multivariate statistics, gorgonzola. THE USE OF THE BARTLETT SPHERICITY TEST IN THE STUDY OF SUNFLOWER GENETIC VARIABILITY ANA VERGÍNIA LIBOS MESSETTI - Universidade Estadual de Londrina-UEL, messetti@uel.br; CARLOS ROBERTO PADOVANI - Universidade Estadual Paulista, bioestatistica@ibb.unesp.br; Multivariate methods are used to study genetic variability in vegetables in genetic improvement programs. This work carries out an principals components analysis to reduce the number of descriptive variables in 12 sunflowers populations. According to the Bartlett test, these variables are significantly correlated. The Kaiser s criterion determined two components, explaining the 82,5% total variation. Key words: Principals components analysis, genetic variability, Bartlett sphericity test. AN E±CIENT ALGORITHM FOR ESTIMATION IN SKEW-NORMAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS Victor H. Lachos - Bayes Forecast-Brasil, São Paulo - S.P. - Brasil Normality (symmetric) of the random e ects and the within-subject errors is a routine assumptions for the linear mixed model. We relax this assumption by considering that the random e ects follow a skew-normal distributions, which includes normality as a special case and provides exibility in capturing a broad range of non-normal behavior. The marginal distribution for the observed quantity is derived which is expressed in closed form. We also implement an e±cient EM type algorithm, which optimizing the EM algorithm proposed by Arellano-Valle Bolfarine & Lachos (2005) [Journal of Multivari-ate Analysis ]. Results of simulation studies and applications to real data sets are reported. Key Words: EM algorithm; marginal likelihood; mixed e ects model; skewness. STATISTICAL MOLECULAR ANALYSIS OF PHASEOLUS-RHIZOBIAL STRAINS FROM COMMON BEAN SEEDSERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA.

17 Maria Elizabeth da Costa Vasconcellos, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, Eduardo Aparecido Rosa Neto, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Souza Andrade, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) using data derived from PCR-RFLP analysis of 49 Phaseolusrhizobial seed-born strains from four cultivars collected in three Brazilian states was done. The AMOVA demonstrated higher genetic variation within the strains independently of their origins. The cluster analysis according to Euclidean distance indicated three groups. FACTOR ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN CURITIBA - PR Antonio Jorge Gonçalves Pontes,Acadêmico de estatística, UFPR, jorgepontes@ufpr.br; Osmir José Lavoranti, Departamento de estatística, UFPR, osmir@est.ufpr.br Were studied the contribution of twenty-six variables, referring the conditions of the road, in the place of the accident of traffic in Curitiba-PR. Factor analysis it was used and it was observed that the conductive factor was responsible for the largest contribution of the accidents in Curitiba-PR. CLASSIFICATION OF SOY CULTIVARS ABOUT CONCENTRATION OF ISOFLAVONES USING MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS ANALYSIS Sarah Rabelo de Souza, FEMA-Assis, Esp. em Estatística/UEL, sarah@femanet.com.br; Jacinta Ludovico Zamboti, Depto de Estatística e Mat. Aplicada./UEL, ludovico@uel.brerro! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The goal of this research is to classify 233 soy cultivars, about concentration of isoflavones glucosides in soybean, evidencing clusters of cultivars that have either higher or lower concentration of these compounds (daidzin, glycetin, genistin e genag). The multivariate analysis denominated Cluster analysis (k-means) was used to group these cultivars. Keywords: multivariate statistics; cluster analysis; k-means, soybean isoflavones. COMPARISON OF MULTIVARIATE TECHNIQUES IN STUDY OF SOIL INVERTEBRATE MACROFAUNA IN CROPS UNDER ORGANIC MANAGEMENT AND NO-TILLAGE SYSTEMS Janaina Ribeiro Costa - Embrapa Agrobiologia - janaina@cnpab.embrapa.br; Adriana Maria de Aquino - Embrapa Agrobiologia - adriana@cnpab.embrapa.br Principal components, canonical variables and cluster analyses were compared using data of soil macrofauna sampled in crops under organic management and no-tillage systems. There was consistency among the results obtained with the multivariate analysis techniques used. Key words: Principal components analysis, canonical variables analysis, cluster analysis, soil macrofauna. UTILIZAÇÃO DA ANÁLISE DE CORRESPONDÊNCIA MÚLTIPLA NA CARACTERIZAÇÃO DO PADRÃO DE FRUTIFICAÇÃO DA COMUNIDADE EM UM FRAGMENTO DE FLORESTA SEMIDECÍDUA USE OF MULTIPLE CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS TO CHARACTERIZE COMMUNITY FRUITING PATTERN IN A SEMIDECIDUOUS FOREST FRAGMENT Renata Cristina Batista Fonseca, Departamento de Recursos Naturais Faculdade de Ciências - Agronômicas UNESP/Botucatu rfonseca@fca.unesp.br; Inês Cristina de Batista Fonseca, Departamento de Agronomia Centro de Ciências Agrárias Universidade Estadual de Londrina inescbf@uel.br The objective of this study is to verify the possibility of the use of Multiple Correspondence Analysis to characterize temporal redundancy of species fruiting in a semideciduous forest fragment, Botucatu County, São Paulo State, Brazil. The method was efficient, however the knowing of species biology is essential to results interpretation.

18 SHRINKAGE OF EIGENVALUES OF COVARIANCE MATRIX AND APPLICATION IN AMMI MODEL Lúcio Borges de Araújo, ESALQ/USP, Carlos Tadeu dos Santos Dias, ESALQ/USP, The aim of this work is to verify e ect of three shrinkage methods for: eigenvalues of covariance matrix, eigenvalues mean of 100 matrix covariance and in interaction matrix. It was veri ed that the three method has been present good shrinkage and shrinkage is the same for eigenvalue or eigenvalue mean. When applying the third correction in real data, obtained a model more parsimonious. Word-key: AMMI model, biased of eigenvalues, Shrinkage of eigenvalues. ENSINO DE ESTATÍSTICA STATISTICAL EDUCATIONAL PROJECTS AT FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF UBERLÂNDIA Quintiliano Siqueira Schroden Nomelini, Acadêmico do curso de Matemática UFU Bolsista -PIBEG, kim_mati@yahoo.com.; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, heyder@ufu.br.; Arlindo José de Souza Jr., FAMAT-UFU, Arlindo@ufu.br These project focus on the building statistical teachers. Math Under graduation Students attendant Statistics and probability chair were encouraged to develop education projects in statistics. The projects, conducted by teams of 3 5 students were developed in 2004 s first and second semesters. Projects were grouped in three major s areas: Teaching statistics: mea n and median webquest; data simulation and combinatory analysis webquest; Applied statistics: Math students profile; Reprovation indices in UFU s Math curse, Probabilistic model for Mega sena; and elections surveys; Informatics in Statistics: excel as a statistical tool; simulation by virtual labs; graphical applications. Key words: Education, statistical education. RELATO DE EXPERIÊNCIAS DIDÁTICAS DO ENSINO DE ESTATÍSTICA ATRAVÉS DE METODOLOGIAS ALTERNATIVASERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Maria Luisa M. Calçada (mlmcalca@unimep.br); Ronaldo S. Wada(rswada@unimep.br; Idemauro Antonio R. Lara (ialara@unimep.br); Maria Célia de Oliveira Papa (mcpapa@unimep.br; Glória Aparecida Soares Rosada(garosada@unimep.br) Faculdade de Ciências Matemáticas, da Natureza e Tecnologia da Informação Apoio Financeiro: FAP- UNIMEP Knowing how Statistics are being taught, worked with or discussed is a fundamental element for understanding them. This study aimed to seek alternative resources for teaching-learning Statistics, aimed at Basic and Middle Education, in an endeavor to find suitable forms of approaching new ideas, capable of meeting the requirements of the new citizen profile that current society requires. The study involved field research together with the official teaching network in Piracicaba, and studies were carried out in partnership with professors from the UNIMEP teaching network, through which teaching activities were proposed and developed. It may be noted that in spite of the difficulties, there are alternatives capable of motivating and favoring the learning of Statistics. The results obtained indicate that the proposed activities contributed towards reducing the deficiency in the teaching processes. UMA OPÇÃO PARA O ENSINO ONLINE DE ESTATÍSTICA VIA R NA WEB FRANCISCO LUIZ VILAS BOAS, chicoluiz@yahoo.com.br; LUCI APARECIDA NICOLAU, Universidade Federal de Lavras, einstein@comp.ua.br; DENISMAR ALVES NOGUEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, denisnog@yahoo.com.br; MARCELO SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, marcelo.oliveira@ua.br; FÁTIMA M.S. MOREIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras,fmoreira@ua.br

19 Courses through internet are a promising option for training and learning. The experience of a on line Statistics course given by professionals of to the federal University of Lavras to a group of researchers and students working in a international project is reported. By the systematic observation and data collected through questionnaires the participant s impression is described. A good acceptance of the course was noticed even by those who never used this learning tool. SPACIAL DEPENDENCE IN MAIZE FELD EXPERIMENTES Beques Aparecido Araújo Sousa, UFU undergraduate student, beques@eel.ufu.br; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, heyder@ufu.br; Michele Gonçalves Pedrosa Spacial dependence among Phaeospheria, Puccinea and Cercosphora resistance scores in mayze feld experiment was evaluated. Nine of the 19 evaluated experiment showed a hight spacial dependence. Key-words: Likelihood ratio test, geoestatístics, Phaeospheria,Puccinea,Cercosphora,. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN MINAS GERAIS STATE BRAZIL JADER ALVES DE OLIVEIRA - Acadêmico do Curso de Engenharia Elétrica FEELT/UFU Bolsista PIBIC/FAPEMIG - jaderufu@yahoo.com.br; EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES - Prof. Orientador FAMAT/UFU ecg@ufu.br; MARCELO TAVARES - Prof. Colaborador FAMAT/UFU mtavares@ufu.br The purpose of this work was to verify the spatial dependence of the summer rainfall in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The data of 62 climatological stations were used. It was made descriptive analysis and geostatistical analysis. It was verified that there are a normality tendency for the attributes. Geostatistical analysis showed spatial dependence. As a conclusion, the summer rainfall in Minas Gerais State has spatial dependence and it should be considered for estimations. Key words: spatial statistics, semivariograms, kriging, rainfall. APPLICATION OF GEOSTATISTICS METHODS TO IDENTIFY SPATIAL DEPENDENCE IN FAN SYSTEMATIC DESIGN. Melissa Lombardi Oda, Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ,Caixa Postal:9, Piracicaba/SP, CEP: , melissa.oda@gmail.com; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., Prof. Depto de Estatítica, UFPR, paulojus@est.ufpr.br; José Luis Stape, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, ESALQ/USP, stape@esalq.usp.br; Décio Barbin, Prof. Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, debarbin@esalq.usp.br It will be applied geostatistical methodology to verify the spatial dependence in a \fan systematic design, taking itself in consideration: a) elimination of the data of the neighboring plants to the missing values; b) the information of occurrence of missing parcels; c) the time of occurrence of the death of the plant. GEOSTATISTICAL SIMULATION WITH DIFFERENT DEGREES OF SPATIAL DEPENDENCE IN A SYSTEMATIC DESIGN Melissa Lombardi Oda, Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ,Caixa Postal:9, Piracicaba/SP, CEP: , melissa.oda@gmail.com; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., Prof. Depto de Estatística, UFPR, paulojus@est.ufpr.br; José Luiz Stape, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, ESALQ/USP, stape@esalq.usp.br; Décio Barbin, Prof. Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, debarbin@esalq.usp.br; Ana Alice Pilon, Prof. Depto de Estatística, UFPR, aapilon@est.ufpr.br The objective of this work is to compare simulated models and methods of estimation of parameters that consider presence e importance of the spatial information in the analysis of a \fan systematic design. SPATIAL STATISTIC MODELS APPLIED TO THE STUDY OF PARACOCCIDIOIDOMYCOSIS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OF SÃO PAULO STATE

20 Ligia Barrozo Simões, Departamento de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. lsimoes@ibb.unesp.br; José Eduardo Corrente, Departamento de Bioestatística, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. jecorren@ibb.unesp.br; Sílvio Alencar Marques, Departamento de Dermatologia e Radioterapia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. smarques@fmb.unesp.br; Eduardo Bagagli, Departamento de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. bagagli@ibb.unesp.br Non-spatial and spatial regression models were estimated using prevalence density of paracoccidioidomycosis and environmental predictors. Non-spatial models explained 69% of variation in prevalence density but residuals showed significant spatial dependence. Spatial lag models using simple contiguity weights and a dummy variable were calculated. Spatial effects are important when studying paracoccidioidomycosis distribution. SPATIAL VARIBILITY OF A BARE OXISOL CO2 EMISSION AND ITS RELATION TO SOIL TEMPERATURE AND SOIL MOISTURE The objective of this work was to determine the modifications in the spatial variability models of soil CO2 emission and its relation to an irrigation event. The Spatial variability models changed influenced by irrigation indicating a decrease in spatial dependence of soil CO2 emission after increasing soil moisture. COMPARISON OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CALCIUM IN THE SOIL, AT TWO DEPHTS USING COVARIANCE STRUCTURE EXPONENCIAL. Maria Cristina Neves de OLIVEIRA, Embrapa Soja caixa postal 231, CEP , Londrina -PR, Décio BARBIN, Professor Titular Departamento de Ciências Exatas ESALQ-USP, caixa postal 9, Piracicaba SP, Cláudio Lucas CAPECHE, José Ronaldo de MACEDO, Enio Fraga da SILVA, Helga Restum HISSA, Pesquisadores Embrapa Solos, Rua Jardim Botânico, 1024, Rio de Janeiro RJ The objective of this study was to compare geostatistc models with covariance structure exponencial using data of calcium soil content at 0-20 and cm layers. These data set have a spatial dependence. The results were analyzed with the subroutine geor, resulting in reliable estimates for the parameters. VARIABILIDADE ESPACIAL DOS ATRIBUTOS GRANULOMÉTRICOS DE UM SOLO NO MAPEAMENTO DE ÁREAS AGRÍCOLAS HOMOGÊNEAS. Gener Tadeu Pereira, UNESP Jaboticabal, genertp@fcav.unesp.br; Rafael Montanari, UNESP Jaboticabal, montana@fcav.unesp.br; José Marques Júnior, UNESP Jaboticabal, marques@fcav.unesp.br; Diego Silva Siqueira, UNESP Jaboticabal, diego_silvasiqueira@yahoo.com.br; Zigomar Menezes de Souza, UNESP Jaboticabal, zigomar@fcav.unesp.br The agricultural production depends on the technological innovation in the search of maximization of the profits and minimization of the environmental impact. Therefore, the spatial variability must be well known, with the goal of defining the specific management areas. REDUÇÃO DO NÚMERO DE PARCELAS UTILIZANDO DESIGN RETROSPECTIVO EM UM CONJUNTO DE DADOS SIMULADOS Luciana Pagliosa Carvalho, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luis de Queiroz, lpcarva@esalq.usp.br ; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Junior, Universidade Federal do Paraná, paulojus@est.ufpr.br ; Sônia Maria de Stefano Piedade, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luis de Queiroz, soniamsp@esalq.usp.br The purpose of this paper was the reduction of the number of locations from 144 to 80 to a simulated data-set by criterion which minimize the spatially averaged prediction variance and criterion which minimize the minimal spatially prediction variance. THE BASIC UNIT SIZE IN UNIFORMITY TRIALS