Technologies and tools for risk communication risk assessment, and risk management for Floods

Transcrição

1 1 Technologies and tools for risk communication risk assessment, and risk management for Floods Prof. Dr. Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Brazil Material and projects provided by: Dr. Peter Oberle Institute of Water and River Basin Management (IWG) and CEDIM Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

2 2 Content CEDIM Flood Modelling for Risk Communication Risk Map Concept for Risk Assessment Risk Management Conclusions

3 3 Joint interdisciplinary research center: German Research Centre of Geosciences (GFZ) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Founded in 2002 Staff: ca. 30 scientists in 2012 (10 scientists in 2003) Funding: Core funding of main research projects by KIT and GFZ External funding

4 4 CEDIM Key Expertise

5 Research Areas in CEDIM Natural risks and climate change Regional flood hazard in a changing climate HARIS CC Hail Risk in a Changing Climate Web-based information acquisition of disaster information Global Risk Change / Global Earthquake Monitoring (GEM) Central Asia Initiative Earthquake Loss Estimation Estimation of risk relevant parameters using remote sensing technologies and multi-source imaging Vulnerability and Critical Infrastructures Vulnerability of critical infrastructures (SIMKRIT, KRITIS) Emergency management for large power black-outs Natural Disasters and Transportation

6 Flood Elz junction 3D-visualization of flood-simulation 6 Floods: Natural or man-made? Land-use between 1896 and today, Stuttgart-Cannstatt (Neckar) region 1896 today Flood damage 2002 (MunichRe) Germany: Mio. Europe: > Mio.

7 Functional chain of flood Meteorology Rainfall Climate Hydrology Discharge Drainage area LIDAR (light detection and ranging): Laser Scanning for topographic and land-use information 7

8 8 Functional chain of flood Meteorology Rainfall Climate Hydrology Discharge Drainage area Hydraulic Flood areas Water courses

9 9 Functional chain of flood Meteorology Rainfall Climate Hydrology Discharge Drainage area Hydraulic Flood areas Water courses (Social-)economy ecology Damages Endangered objects

10 10 Flood damage assessment Exaple: flood damage 1993 community Offenau (Neckar) Schäden an Wohngebäuden [tsd. EUR] > 20

11 11 Risk analysis Rating curve (hydraulics) flow HQ [m³/s] Statistics (hydrology) water depth h [m] exceedance - probability P [1/a] damage function damage [10³* ] expected damage Schadens - wahrscheinlichkeit S dp S P = p 0 [ /a]

12 Maps: Fundamental for flood management Information maps Hazard maps Risk maps qualitative advice of natural disaster Which areas are endangered? quantitative advice of natural disaster Which water levels have to be expected? Information of probabilities What is the probability of flooding? Damage information / vulnerability Which Damages must be expected? Endangered areas Water depths HW1993 HQ20, HQ 50, HQ100 damage classifications Germany (State of Baden-Württemberg): - laser-scanner-data (1x1 m) - 1D & 2D hydraulic models - regionalisation models for hydrology (HQ T -values) - hazard maps for river-km - publishing via internet 12

13 13 CEDIM Risk Explorer Initial CEDIM project 2002 to 2007 Risk map for Germany winter storm, flood, earthquake, man-made risks Available as an web-based and interactive via CEDIM Risk Explorer

14 14 Functional chain of flood Meteorology Rainfall Climate Hydrology Discharge Drainage area Hydraulic Flood areas Water courses Hazard (Social-)economy ecology Damages Endangered objects Vulnerability Flow precaution Technical protection Operational management Flood management

15 15 Flood-management and simulation-tools hazard mapping QNeckar = 1900 m³/s simulation of catastrophic events Operational application SPERRTOR VERSAGT! 3D-Visualisation damage and risk analysis

16 16 Scenario Flood barrage closed Barrage closed

17 17 Scenario Flood barrage collapsed Collaps of the barrage

18 18 Line of defence in the city Mannheimer street power station

19 19 Line of defence in the city Mannheimer street power station mobil flood control

20 Conclusions Flood-modeling systems are essential and helpful tools for: Producing Hazard and Risk maps Flood Management: Prevention Land Management Building Management Retention areas Technical protection Dams River management Polder Operational protection Warning system Forecasting system Alarm plans Source: Bernd Rohrmann, The Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies,

21 References CEDIM: Bleninger, T. Richter, A., Erstellung hydronumerischer Modelle des Projektes Mittelrhein-ARGO Mainz-Andernach (Rhein-km 493 bis 614) Institut für Hydromechanik, Universität Karlsruhe, Report No. 787, 2001 Bleninger, T., Fenton, J.D., Zentgraf, R., 2006, One-dimensional unsteady flow modelling for compound channels: case study of a river junction and wide floodplains of the River Rhine, River Flow 2006, Sept. 6-8, 2006, Lisbon Dennis Harlacher, Rebekka Czerny, Clemens Stelzer, Mark Musall, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, Anwendungsorientierte Strömungssimulation im Wolgaeinzugsgebiet - Rahmenbedingungen, Methoden und Perspektiven, Wasserwirtschaft, 4/2011 Peter Oberle, Mark Musall, Andreas Kron, Franz Nestmann, 1-D/2-Dgekoppelte Simulation von Hochwasserabflüssen an der mittleren Elbe, Wasserwirtschaft, 7-8/2008 Stephan Theobald, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, Simulationswerkzeuge für das operationelle Hochwassermanagement, Wasserwirtschaft, 12/

22 22 GIS for flood simulations