Vinícius Marques Louzada Celso Bandeira de Melo Ribeiro

Transcrição

1 Vinícius Marques Louzada Celso Bandeira de Melo Ribeiro

2 Introduction Economic Growth Energy Demmand Necessity of more energy Belo Monte

3 Necessity of a System to support the decisions in order to achieve an adequate Water Resource Management. Hidroeletrics Modeling Environmental Impacts Studies Necessity

4 Modelling Advantages Desadvantages Simulate differents scenarios Economy of time and money Support to decision makers It is not 100% accurate Necessity of data in quantity and quality

5 SWAT Model Developed by: USDA Agricultural Research Service Texas A&M AgriLife Research Global application:

6 SWAT Model Input Digital Elevation Model - DEM Weather data Soils maps Soil use and occupation Output Hydrology Sediments Transportation Plant grownth Nitrogen Cicle Phosphorus Cicle

7 SWAT - CUP Software to Calibrate and Validate a model Time Optimizer: Identification of most sensitives parameters Identification of best values for each parameter

8 Objective Calibrate a SWAT model for Xingu River sub basin using SWAT and SWAT-CUP and identify the influence of soil use changes on the flow of the main river.

9 Metodology Study Area: Xingu River Basin Area = km 2

10 Metodology Base de Dados - SWAT Soil use Database for the Xingu basin preveously prepared Soil type Topography (DEM) Weather data

11 MODIS MCD12Q1 Land Use

12 Types of Soil ISRIC World Soil Information

13 Digital Elevation Model - DEM dataavail.php

14 Weather Data Data from monitoring satations: INMET ANA

15 Use of monthly flows to calibrate the model Inventary of monitoring stations from National Water Agency - ANA

16 Definition of weather stations according to the period of available data.

17 Weather Stations Used Boa Sorte Altamira Code Code Period: January 1976 to Februrary 2009 Período: January 1971 to January 2013

18 Calibration with Altamira station Calibration with Boa Sorte station

19 SWAT - CUP R² Coefficiente of determination 0 a 1 NSE Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency Relatice magnitude data variance compared to the measured data variance NSE = 1- n i=1 (Yobs Ysim) 2 n (Yobs Ymean) 2 i=1

20 SWAT-CUP PBIAS Tendency of simulated data to be larger or smaller than the observed values PBIAS = n i=1 (Yobs Ysim) 100 n i=1 (Yobs)

21 Calibration The response of a model is related to the quality of input database. It is necessary to adjust parameters to improve model response The most sensitive parameters must be determined, trhough sensibility analysis.

22 Most Sensitives Parameters Parameter Description Range of parameter Best Value CN2 Surface runoff 35 to ESCO Compensation of soil 0 to evaporation ALPHA_BF Base flow 0 to RCHRG_DP Deep aquifer percolation 0 to SLSUBBSN Average length of lateral 10 to ramp EPCO Compensation for plant 0 to grown SURLAG Surface runoff retardation 0.05 to coefficient CH_W2 Average width of main 0 to channel at top of bank CH_L2 Length of main channel to CH_N2 Manning s roughness to coefficient value for the main channel

23 Results PBIAS Evaluation NSE Evaluation Performance Modeling Phase Reference Performance rating Model Model Value Value rating R² Modeling NSE Phase PBIASReference Calibration and SWAT <10% Very Good Validation Van Liew et al. (2007) 0.63 Calibration 0.59 and 17.3 SWAT >0.65 Very Good Validation Calibration and Saleh et al. (2000) SWAT <10% to <15% Good Validation Van Liew et al. (2007) 0.54 to Calibration and SWAT 0.65 Adequate Validation Calibration and Saleh et al. (2000) SWAT <15% to <25% Satisfactory Validation Van Liew et al. (2007) Calibration and Santhi et al. (2001); adapted by SWAT >0.50 Satisfactory Unsatisfactor Validation Calibration and Bracmort et al. (2006) SWAT >25% y Validation Van Liew et al. (2007)

24 Land use Changes

25 Flow Simulation

26 Conclusion Satisfatory results for calibration Streamflow results shows tiny variation from 2002 to 2012 When property calibrated and validated SWAT model is a very efficient tool to plan interventions and changes in the basins

27 Referências Bibliográficas SALLES, L. A. Calibração e Validação do Modelo SWAT Para a Predição de Vazões na Bacia do Ribeirão Pipiripau. Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, DF NETO, A. R. et al. Simulação na Bacia Amazônica com Dados Limitados: Rio Madeira. Revista brasileira de recursos hídricos. Volume 13, n. 3. Jul/Set 2008, MATA, R. A. Estudo da influência do escoamento superficial no comportamento hidráulico em um corpo hídrico urbanizado. In: XII simpósio ítalo-brasileiro de engenharia sanitária e ambiental. 2014, Natal-RN. PEN DRIVE DO XII SIMPÓSIO... Natal-RN, Abes, 19/05/14. BRASIL, Lei n 9433, de 8 de Janeiro de Institui a Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, cria o Sistema Nacional de Gerenciamento de recursos Hídricos, regulamenta o inciso XIX do art. 21 da Constituição Federal, e altera o art. 1 da Lei n 7.990, de 28 de dezembro de Diário oficial da República Federativa do Brasil, Brasília, DF, Disponível em: < Acessado em: 11/06/2014. INPA, CARACTERÍSTICAS DA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO RIO XINGU. Figura Folha 2 de 2, Escala: 1: Disponível em: < 09/Vol%2005/AAR%20MEIO%20BIOTICO/FIGURAS/figura_7_2_4_1_caract_bacia_xingu_folha_2.pdf> Acessado em: 11/06/2014. RIBEIRO, C. B. M. et al. Parametrization of physical and climatic characteristics in the Amazon basin for hydrological simulation with SWAT model Internations SWAT Conference