Climate change. Territorial vulnerability. Adaptation and mitigation KÁTIA VIRGÍNIA CAÑELLAS

Transcrição

1 Climate change Territorial vulnerability. Adaptation and mitigation Curso: Mestrado em Engenharia do Ambiente / Master in Environmental Engineering Disciplina: Gestão de Ambiente e Território / Environment and Territory Management Profa Doutora: Maria Rosário Partidário KÁTIA VIRGÍNIA CAÑELLAS

2 Content 1. Climate change 2. Adaptation 3. Mitigation 4. Territorial Vulnerability

3 CLIMATE CHANGE Definition: Climate change refers to: a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. ( IPCC, 2013) a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)

4 Enquadramento

5 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Synthetic diagram on the development of studies related to Climate Change after Fonte: Swart et al, 2009, p.68

6 Causes of Climate Change Natural causes - Volcanic eruptions - Ocean current - Earth orbital changes - Solar variations Human causes - Deforestation - Transports - Industrial processes - Intense agriculture - Energy use in our houses

7 Consequences/Impacts of CC Increase in global average surface temperature Changes in weather patterns (frequency, intensity) More intense precipitation (floods, ) More evaporation (drought, erosions, forest fires, )

8 Consequences/Impacts of CC Ocean acidification Endangered species Sea level rise Reduction of water reserves

9 Risk - Impacts of CC

10 Heat Wave Wild Fire Costal Flood Hazard: climate-related physical events or trends or their physical impacts. Exposure: Presence of people, ecossistems or infraestructure in places and settings that could be adversely affected. Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.

11 Risk - Impacts of CC IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change

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13 Risk Management

14 Territorial vulnerability to CC Territorial vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a territory is susceptible to, and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Is function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity. (IPCC, 2007)

15 Causes of territorial vulnerability to CC Impermeabilization, occupation of vulnerable areas

16 Causes of territorial vulnerability to CC Scarcity and excessive consumption of water resources

17 Causes of territorial vulnerability to CC Streams occupied Inappropriate management of natural spaces and forest

18 Natural systems over pressure non-sustainable

19 Extreme heat

20 Fires

21 Floods

22 Coastal erosion

23 Desertification

24 Storms

25 Material damages

26 Material damages

27 Vulnerable groups /areas: Children Elderly Disadvantaged groups Coastal areas Water streams Flood plains

28 Responses Mitigation & Adaptation

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30 Types of Actions

31 Types of mesures

32 Mitigation X Adaptation Actions with three different aspects: 1) Spatial e time scale; 2) Costs X Benefts 3) Stakeholders and Policies.

33 Mitigation and Adaptation Characteristics Mitigation Adaptation Benefit systems All systems Selected systems Efforts scale Global Local to regional Duration Centuries Years to centuries Term Results Decades IImmediately / decades Efficiency Sure in terms of reducing emissions; Not so sure in terms of damages reduction Generally less certain (especially where local knowledge of likely changes related to climate is weak) Auxiliary benefíts Some times In most cases Polluter-Payer Typically yes Not necessarily Benefits of Payer Only part Almost completely Administrative Scale / Execution Mainly national governments / international negotiations Mostly local managers / authorities, families and community organizations Sectors involved Essentially energy and transportation in developed countries / forests and energy in underdeveloped or developing countries Potentially all Monitoring Relatively easy More difficult, especially where adaptation involves preventing any damage incurred Font: Adaptado de Bicknell et al, 2010, p.378.

34 Need to action

35 Policy orientations

36 Adaptation policies

37 Adaptation policies White paper on Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action COM (2009) 147 final Adaptation strategy for 2013 Reduce vulnerability and increase resilience of the EU to the impacts of CC Invest on an economy of energy efficiency and low carbon through green products (Green Economy) Need to develop guidelines

38 Climate proofing approach Climate proofing in a mitigation context: Ensure that the activity does not increase its global GHG emissions Climate proofing in an adaptation context: Protect activities from the impacts of climate change

39 International activity

40 The basis of the adaptation strategy

41 The water in Rotterdam comes from four sides: Living with the threat of water is in our genes.

42 Rotterdam in extreme situations

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44 Outer-dike water safety risk map

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46 Solutions

47 Strategies for incorporating more green in inner-city Rotterdam

48 Different ways in which dike reinforcement and area development can be combined depending on three types of economic conditions

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51 Solutions - extreme rainfall

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59 A Shifting Landscape The construction of artificial levees along the riverfront and lakefront, and the installation of perimeter pump stations have reshaped the landscape

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62 A new approach to urban water

63 A new approach to water management

64 Practical exercise Project Sector Measures Adaptation Mitigation Interactions Agricultural Transport Coastal Biodiversity

65 I) Ações de Mitigação como Sinônimo de Adaptação Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Certificação de desempenho ambiental BREEAM/LEED* Melhoria da eficiência no uso da água Relocação de residentes para habitações urbanas com certificação ambiental Preservação de áreas inundáveis Arborização urbana e proteção de espaços abertos e habitats Decentralização da geração de energias renováveis *BEEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (UK) LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (US Green Building Council) Fonte: Adaptado de WILSON, E.; PIPER, J. Spatial Planning and Climate Change. New York: Routledge, 2010, p.381

66 II) Ações de Mitigação em que Adaptação é neutra a curto prazo mas suporta ou favorece a longo prazo Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Promover a redução de todos os níveis de consumo Renovação de edifícios existentes LEED-EB* Uso de materiais de construção com baixo consumo de energia Estimular a redução do uso do automóvel individual Reduzir a dependência do transporte aéreo Promoção do transporte de massa para longas distâncias *LEED - EB - Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design for Existing Buildings Fonte: Adaptado de WILSON, E.; PIPER, J. Spatial Planning and Climate Change. New York: Routledge, 2010, p.381

67 III) Ações de Mitigação que dificultam a Adaptação a curto prazo mas suportam ou favorecem a longo prazo Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Densidade da forma urbana (cidade compacta p/ climas quentes úmidos) Hidroelétrica Uso de Biodiesel ( menor emissão de NOx) Fonte: Adaptado de WILSON, E.; PIPER, J. Spatial Planning and Climate Change. New York: Routledge, 2010, p.381

68 IV) Ações de Adaptação que são neutras para a Mitigação Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Coleta e armazenamento de água da chuva Relocação de residentes de áreas costeiras para edifícios convencionais existentes Filtragem passiva do ar com o uso de plantas Melhorar sistemas de alerta e planejamento de evacuação Fonte: Adaptado de WILSON, E.; PIPER, J. Spatial Planning and Climate Change. New York: Routledge, 2010, p.381

69 V) Ações de Adaptação que interferem na Mitigação Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades Incidência/ severidade Incremento do uso de ar condicionado Construção de novos reservatórios trazendo água de longe Relocação de residentes de áreas costeiras para novos edifícios de construção convencional Construção de diques de betão Filtragem ativa do ar através de sistemas mecânicos Desenvolver estruturas resistentes a tempestades com o uso de muros de betão ou aço Fonte: Adaptado de WILSON, E.; PIPER, J. Spatial Planning and Climate Change. New York: Routledge, 2010, p.381

70 Obrigado!